Download - Bob Frankston's presentation at eComm 2008
A Bob Frankston Presentation
Achieving Connectivity from the EdgeBob Frankston
A Bob Frankston Presentation
Changing the Horse you Rode in on
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Dagnabit: 15 minute vs. “reality”
• So many stakeholders in the status quo!
• Silos are barriers to entry, you need it to be difficult!
• Real opportunity comes from decoupling
• You need to understand the technology to transcend it
• The Post Office has mastered routing, why can’t we?
• Yet we think the Internet is just another TV channel
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Preparing to understand
• What is the value of a bit such as this one “1”?
• What is the capacity of this piece of wire?
• If you can answer these questions you don’t get it!
• The value is in using the network, not the network itself.
• Once you’ve defined a service you’ve locked in your assumptions.
• Moore’s law: based on decoupling marketplaces
• If we didn’t know better …
• But we do – the Internet is a very effective demo!
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
It’s so darn easy to network☺☻☺☻!
• Home Networks• They are not networks – just copper and radios (rarely fiber)
• The devices use physical transports to facilitate networking
• As a result:
• The speed has gone from 2kbps 1Gbps, Gbps switch $50!
• It costs very little to install and essentially nothing to operate
• Caveat
• It should be far easier and will be!
• In 1995 home networking was never going happen.
• We are supposed to be getting it via the STB n-tuple plays
• I made sure home networks were not a profit center.
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
• Interconnecting neighborhoods is trivial and V1’s been done• We already do it the hard way – home run connectivity
• Without path dependence all access points add to coverage
• Distance is easy• My House to Boston “peering” point (AKA I-90 entrance)
• Thence Seattle (AKA I-90 exit)
• That’s it folks. Done. More provisioning than routing.
• And cheap• We already have the copper, fiber and radios! 300× in Newton!
• The Post Office has been routing for thousands of years!The Post Office has been routing for thousands of years!• They don’t confuse naming with addressing!
And it scales “I-90” routing
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Government vs. Userment
• We must stakeholders, not indentured tenants.
• Positive Sum Ownership (of the Bit Commons)• Nonexclusive!
• Contribute and get even more in return (network effect)
• Ownership at scale• Your home network is yours
• Your community network is done by the community
• Spanning connectivity may be national or global
• Simplicity at scale• At the edge: Complex policy decisions about relationships
• Avoid policy for spanning connection: Just provision
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Key Idea 1: Networking not networks
• Networking is something we do – Andy Lippmann (MIT)• We can use any means available
• We can innovate in any way
• The power of decoupling – assume relationships and paths
• Telecom is now about little except creating billable events• Redundant broadband for containing bits
• Phone companies do not create phone calls
• Cable: 2Mbps HDTV over IP is better than over “cable”!
• Makes promise it cannot keep – it doesn’t control the network!
• Devices can do telephony but they aren’t telephones!
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Key Idea 2: The Opportunity Dynamic
• The Internet is about discovering what is possible• If you don’t rely on promises, you can’t be charged for them
• Demand creates supply
• If we aren’t constrained by the past perfect
• Digital is a great facilitator
• Telecom is about delivering only what we already have• Every bit has an pre-assigned value without context
• Depends on the myth that bits and ideas are scarce!
• We already know better!
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Telecom is a Failed idea
• Based on• The accidental properties of analog signaling
• The notions that monopolies are smarter than markets
• We keep it alive• The FCC’s Regulatorium fights reality
• People still think phone calls come from a phone company
• A myriad of stakeholders including many at this conference
• Mostly ignorance• The idea that we can’t drive or do our own networking
• A failure to understand the Internet beyond YouTube
• Malthusian zero sum economics
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Telecom is not sustainable
• http://www.frankston.com/?name=AssuringScarcity
• Routing is hard because it is about managing scarcity!
• The bit commons has effectively unlimited abundance• The Internet is not a consumable, we create capacity
• Network effect means commons is far greater than slivers
• Abundance means you can’t tax services to fund transport• Incremental cost of email, VoIP etc is effectively zero.
• End-to-End constraint means you can’t charge for better• Provider doesn’t control the path
• It’s a canal across an ocean of bits – not a viable business!
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Telecom Connectivity
• Telecom as a Service is the problem• If you fund the infrastructure out of service revenue
• Abundance is a threat – More “Internet” less revenue
• You have to monetize the network, not the use of the
• Telecom defines and limits our ability to communicate!
• It’s not about fiber, it’s about market structure• The service model is inherently dysfunctional.
• Muni-bells are bells – it’s not about FTTH, it’s about opportunity!
• Infrastructure funding aligns incentives and gives us abundance
• Why are we fixated on speed and not connectivity?
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The FCC can play a positive role
• Remove legacy barriers to local ownership• Recognize that we don’t need to support carriers
• Benign neglect – don’t extend the Regulatorium
• Remove business restrictions such as “cable content” rules
• Understand connectivity and fund research
• Don’t accept “Stole it fair and square”
• Don’t give us “broadband”, give us Internet Opportunity.
• And benign Neglect: Most problems will solve themselves• “Spectrum” will not have value if we have connectivity
• Complex routing and telco control is self-defeating
• Monetizing bits is a failed idea
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
We have met the enemy …
• And it is us – Pogo
• Example: If you have copper you have DSL 24×7• And 100% wireless coverage to boot
• It’s not about speed – it’s about our lives & our ec
• But instead we beg for more broadband• We mean “More of that there Internet Channel”
• Carriers hear – more delivery pipes with a 1% tithe
• Or they think they can monetize bits a la Genuity.
• And we get more Bells & Muni-Bells
• It’s not about just watching TV• It’s about mundane use of connectivity for our day to day lives!
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
The Biggest Problem
• We have a perfect usable Internet yet• We think it’s about YouTube
• Cities have multiple special infrastructures and private fiber
• They pay for phone calls and all sorts of special services
• They have toy cable TV stations and rather than video servers
• They don’t expect to use the abundant gigabit connectivity
• And we are disconnected everywhere but in our own homes!!
• Something is very very wrong.• We have a perfectly good Internet but we ignore it!
• We’ve paid for it and yet think we have to pay again and again
• We think freedom is a faster broad band.
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
Let’s stop being stupid!
• Telecom is not viable so why try so hard to preserve it
• The infrastructure(V1) exists but is unused! Cost is <<$0
• It’s not just a TV channel, it’s infrastructure!
• So let’s make a deal• We get infrastructure and can align incentives
• The shareholders escape with their hides and some money
• Like Divestiture 1 but done right.
• Like Divestiture 1 – changes happens when it must
• Or we can deny ourselves trillion dollars in value
• But it’s also about our lives and safety (9/11 and 911)
A Bob Frankston PresentationA Bob Frankston Presentation
And on with the show
• Apologies for the interruption.
• You may now resume monetizing Ptolemy's telecom.
• Back to the past already in progress …
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