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Bob DouglasDirector, Water Policy CoordinationMurray-Darling Basin Commission
La Trobe University29 June 2006
Reaching interstate consensus
- Recent challenges and lessons from the MDBC
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Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin
• 1.06 million sq. km
• 15% land mass
• 6.1% of Australia’s total run off
• major river system
• 2 million people
• 2 capital citiesCanberra
Sydney
Brisbane
NEW SOUTH WALES
QUEENSLAND
VICTORIA
SOUTHAUSTRALIA
Melbourne
Swan Hill
MilduraMorgan
Menindee
MenindeLakes
LakeVi ctoria
Albury
Forbes
Dubbo
Moree
Charleville
Bourke
MurrayMurrumbidgie
Lachlan
Darling Macquarie
Border
Balonne
Barwon
Warrego
Adelaide
200 km
Murray Bridge
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Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin
•highly modified environment
•extremes in climatic variability
•environmentally significant
•economically and socially important
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Flows are small
River Average Annual Flow
(GL)
(approx)
Amazon (Sth America) 5,518,800
Yangtze (China) 1,014,700
Yenisey/ Selenga (Russia) 567,700
Ganga (India) 525,000
Mississippi/Missouri (USA) 405,100
Nile (Africa) 88,500
Hwang Ho (China) 51,100
Murray 14,700
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Ratio of maximum annual flow to minimum annual flow for selected rivers
COUNTRY RIVER RATIO BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM and the MINIMUM ANNUAL
FLOWS
BRAZIL AMAZON 1.3
SWITZERLAND RHINE 1.9
CHINA YANGTZE 2.0
SUDAN WHITE NILE 2.4
USA POTOMAC 3.9
SOUTH AFRICA ORANGE 16.9
AUSTRALIA MURRAY 15.5
AUSTRALIA HUNTER 54.3
AUSTRALIA DARLING 4705.2
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MDB rainfall variability
(480mm annual
average)
Total River Murray System Inflows (including Darling River)extended droughts shown in red
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1892 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
Ann
ual I
nflo
w (
GL)
Long-term Median Inflow (9 000 GL/yr)
River Murray system showing extended drought periods
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Environmentally significant
• large ecological range – alpine to rainforest to arid
• numerous reserves, national parks• 16 RAMSAR sites • world heritage convention listings• internationally important biosphere
reserves• breeding grounds for migratory birds• at least 35 endangered birds• at least 16 endangered mammals
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Economic importance
• 40% of Australian agriculture – approx $14 billion
• 70% of irrigated agriculture – approx $7 billion
• Tourism• Manufacturing (food processing)• Mining• Rural Communities
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Highly regulated river system•$2 billion infrastructure•resource sharing/ allocations•high levels of climatic variability•water flows•impacts of river regulation
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Murray-Darling Basin Commission
• Murray-Darling Basin Agreement• 6 governments working together• Charter
"to promote and co-ordinate effective planning and management for the equitable efficient and sustainable use of the water, land and other environmental resources of the Murray-Darling Basin."
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SIX GOVERNMENTSAust Gov. NSW Vic SA Qld ACT
MURRAY-DARLING BASINMINISTERIAL COUNCIL
CommunityAdvisory
Committee
MDBC Office
MURRAY-DARLING BASINCOMMISSION
River Murray Water Committee
Living Murray Committee
Natural Resources Management
Committee
Commission Strategy
Committee
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Major Challenges for the MDBC
• coordination between 6 govts• sharing the water
– highly regulated system
– 5 jurisdictions
– industries, environment, communities
• managing as one catchment– synergies between strategies
– implementing The Living Murray
• major risks to shared water resources
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Growth of surface water use inMurray-Darling Basin
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
An
nu
al D
iver
sio
n (G
L/Y
ear)
Total
Average Natural Flow toSea
Full development of existing entitlements
'88'94
Average Natural Flow to Sea
The Cap
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River Murray Environmental Flows
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Risks to shared water resources
• number of risk factors may reduce annual surface flows in the MDB by about 20% over the next 20 years.
• also impact on – flow regime– water quality and– water security
• impact is uncertain
• estimated reduction in water volume between 2,500GL and 5,500 GL in 20 years
• (average annual flow ~ 14,700 GL)
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Risks to shared water resources
• climate change• growth in dams• increased groundwater use• reduction in return flows from
irrigation • reforestation/ land use change• bushfires
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Climate change• estimated largest and most likely reduction
in flow
• increase the other risks
• potentially reduce stream flow by – 1,100 GL in 10 years (5% of annual flow)
– 3,300 GL in 50 years (15% of annual flow)
Predicted regional differences in percentage reductions in annual stream flow. Dark red indicates greatest reductions.
(Source: Jones and Brooke).
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Growth in Dams
• impact on water volume second to climate change
• evidence suggesting number and size of farm dams increased significantly in last 10 years
• estimated total streamflow reduction by – 250 to 3,000 GL / year in 20 years
– 400 to 4,000 GL/ year in 50 years
• future impact depends on effectiveness of legislation or policies
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Groundwater systems
• constitutes 10-15% of water used
• significant growth in groundwater use
• connectivity
• may threaten surface water availability
• consistency in defining sustainable yield#
#
##
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
# # #
#
#
#
Darling
Rive
r
Murrumbidgee River
Macquarie
River
Lachlan
Rive
r
Murray River
Namoi River
Culgoa
Rive
r
Lod
don
Riv
er
Yanco Creek
Ovens River
Boomi
River Dumaresq River
Turon River
Goulburn River
Peel
Riv er
Mitchell Hwy
Barrier Hwy
Hume Hwy
Cobb Hwy
Warrego Hwy
Calder Hwy
Oxley Hwy
Mid Western Hwy
Gwydir Hwy
Ouyen Hwy
New
ell
Hw
y
Moonie HwyBalonne Hwy
Castlereagh H
wy
Silv
er
City
H
wy
Dukes Hwy
Western Hwy
Carn
arvo
n H
wy
Princes Hw
y
Sunraysia Hw
y
Monaro
Hw
yOm
eo Hw
y
Landsborough Hwy
Borung Hwy
Federal Hwy
Buny
a Hw
y
Barrier Hwy
Dubbo
CowraMorgan
Forbes
Echuca
Bourke
Renmark
Mildura
Bendigo
Pinnaroo
Narrabri
Waikerie
Menindee
CANBERRA
Toowoomba
Swan Hill
St. George
Naracoorte
Cunnamulla
Bordertown
Charleville
Murray Bridge
0 100 200 300 400 50050KilometersLegend
Quaternary
QLD Basalt
Narrabri
Murray Trench
Shepparton
Cowra
Parilla
Murray Grp
Highlands/GAB
¹
Source: Groundwater Status Report 1990-2000
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Reduction in return flows in irrigation
• water diverted for irrigation losses through leakage and evaporation
• flows back to river and groundwater systems if not used
• more efficient water use – reduced flows back to stream– could increase salinity
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Source: BRS
Reforestation/ land use change• plantations potentially reduce water yield in a
catchment
• productive forestry areas tend to have water yield impacts
• reduction in water flow depends on plantations location and size
Increase of plantation forestry in Australia (current and trajectory) towards the 2020 Vision.
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Bushfires• bushfires in 2003 affected high rainfall
areas in MDB catchment
• severe fires have long term effects
• affect water quality and reduce surface and groundwater levels
• climate change ↑ frequency and intensity of dry periods = ↑ bushfires
Variation in run-off from Mountain Ash forests. (source: Kuczera)
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Estimated impact
Estimated impact of the six risks on Murray-Darling Basin surface water by 2020. Darkest colours show most likely impact (Source: MDBC)
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Shared water resources
Water shared between jurisdictions (includes both groundwater and surface water)
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Framework• need to consider the risks together in an
integrated and adaptive way • understand the interrelationships of the
various activities and processes and effect on water quantity and quality in the Basin
• working with the jurisdictions to address the risks requires– collaboration– building on and enhancing the actions already
being taken by individual jurisdictions– identifying where value can be added by a
more integrated and collaborative approach– ensuring there is adequate commitment and
resources within the jurisdictions
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Mic
hael
Bel
l
www.mdbc.gov.au
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"
"
"
"
"
"
"
"
2 Qld
1 Independent President +
2 NSW
2 Federal
2 Vic
2 SA
1 ACT
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MDBC Relationships
MDBMC Community Advisory Committee
MDB Ministerial Council
National Water Commission
MDBC partner
programs (eg.
MDFRC, CRCs)
Research bodies
LocalGovernments
Environ-mentalGroups
Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and
water businesses,
tourism)
Basin Communities
MDB Commission
Commission Boards,
Committees and working
groupsCommission Office
Other water bodies
(‘Water for Rivers’ (JGE) and Snowy
Hydro)
Indigenous groups
Partner Government Agencies for land, water &
environment
Regional catchment management organisations
Partner Governments
MDBCommission
Constructing Authorities
MDBMC Community Advisory Committee
MDB Ministerial Council
National Water Commission
MDBC partner
programs (eg.
MDFRC, CRCs)
Research bodies
LocalGovernments
Environ-mentalGroups
Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and
water businesses,
tourism)
LocalGovernments
Environ-mentalGroups
Industry Groups (eg, irrigation and
water businesses,
tourism)
Basin Communities
MDB Commission
Commission Boards,
Committees and working
groupsCommission Office
MDB Commission
Commission Boards,
Committees and working
groupsCommission Office
Other water bodies
(‘Water for Rivers’ (JGE) and Snowy
Hydro)
Indigenous groups
Partner Government Agencies for land, water &
environment
Regional catchment management organisations
Partner Governments
MDBCommission
Constructing Authorities