Download - BIOMASS FUTURES:
BIOMASS FUTURES:Technical-economic biomass potentials as a basis for further modeling of sustainable supply-demand relations
Brussels, 26 November 2010
Contents • Objectives & main steps• Results: different supplies• Costs• Supply-demand• Further steps
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Biomass categories included
• Biomass from agriculture– Dedicated cropping– Primary residues (straw, prunnings, manure)
• Biomass from forestry– Round wood production– Additionally harvested wood– Primary forestry residues– Secondary forestry residues
• Biomass from waste– Waste biomass– Primary, secondary, tertiary residues
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Steps • Mapping (present) technical potential• Add cost information and derive cost-supply
relations• Add sustainability criteria and map the
environmentally constrained potential• Use potentials as a basis for further scenario-
modelling studies estimating future biomass supply-demand and related environmental impacts
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Examples of mapped technical potentials
• Agricultural by-products• Dedicated cropping
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Manure
Factors determining potential:• Type and animal numbers (LSU/ha)• Manure surplus (in Nitrate Vulnerable areas
max 170 kgN/ha)• Source: Eurostat FSS, NVZ maps, own
elaborations
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Manure available (2005)
EU-Total: 1726 KTOE (1.4% of total potential)
EU-Total: 2724 KTOE (2.3% of total potential)
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Pruning material available (2005)
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Total pruning material (2005)
Total: 11424 KTOE
9% of the total present potential
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Straw
• JRC approach• Sources of straw: all cereals, maize (straw of
corn), rapeseed, sunflower• Sustainably harvested potential• Minus competing uses (animal bedding,
mushroom production)
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Straw
EU-total: 27948 KTOE 23% of total potential
EU-total: 47960 KTOE Based on CAPRI baseline scenario 2020
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Factors determining waste potential
• Number of inhabitants• Welfare level• Industrial development• Present collection activities
• Source of data: Eurostat waste statistics (year 2008). Bias towards countries with good collection and registration systems!
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Wastes
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Summary waste
Waste categoriesPotential
KTOE% of total potential
Present recovery
rate
Wood waste 32310.9 27
Very high in most
countries
Animal waste from food industry 2762.8 2
High in some countries
Organic waste from households and industry 25656.0 21
High in some countries
Paper cardboard 50413.4 42
Very high in most
countries
Common sludges 3699 3 Low
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Present recovery of which some going to bioenergy
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Verge grass
Total potential: 1856 KTOE
2% of total potential
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Dedicated cropping 2008
Maize 2008
OSR 2008
Sugarbeet 2008
Sunflower 2008 Cereals
Perennials 2008 Total
AT 53.0 11.5 0.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 72.6
BG 0.0 0.0 0.0 243.5 0.0 0.0 243.5
BE 1.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 7.3
CZ 0.0 122.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.0
DE 399.5 1800.9 2.4 0.0 253.5 3.6 2459.8
DK 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 170.5 8.5 179.0
GR 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 0.0 9.3
ES 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.9 28.0 0.1 96.9
FI 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 79.2 80.3
FR 53.9 1378.1 52.4 68.2 622.6 14.9 2190.1
HU 0.0 11.8 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 24.5
IE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.9
IT 0.0 5.3 0.0 54.0 0.0 73.6 132.9
NL 1.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
PL 0.0 1477.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 117.6 1594.6
PT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
RO 0.0 13.8 0.0 493.3 0.0 0.0 507.0
SE 0.0 61.5 0.0 0.0 55.2 45.0 161.7
UK 0.0 427.2 0.0 0.0 32.9 21.7 481.8
Total 508.8 5318.6 54.8 955.8 1168.8 371.1 8378.1
% potential 0.4% 4.4% 0% 0.8% 1% 0.3% 6.9%
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Future dedicated cropping with perennials
• Based on land availability and cropping mix as predicted by CAPRI in baseline scenario
• 3 options:– High support for cropping, competes with arable crops on
good-medium productive arable lands– Some cropping support, is economic on fallow and former
olives and vineyards i.e. the lower productive lands– Some support for establishment and bringing back into
production of abandoned land in areas with large abandoned land resource
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On good-medium productive arable lands
• Assumption of 5% of 2020 good-medium quality land
• High yield per hectare• Very large indirect land
effects• Southern Europe large
pressure on scarce water resources
• Largest potential
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On low productive arable lands
• Assumption of 10% of 2020 fallow, olive and vineyards
• Medium-Low yield per hectare
• Limited indirect land effects
• Large adverse effects on biodiversity
• Lowest potential of 3 options
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On former abandoned lands
• Estimate was that in involved regions abandoned land share was 5%-10% of UAA. Of this 5% was used for dedicated biomass cropping
• Low yield per hectare• No indirect land effects• Some negative effects on
biodiversity• What is effect on soil-C?
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Main observations regarding supplies
– Largest supply in industrial and municipal waste, however many alternative uses
– Most by-products still under-utilised– Present dedicated cropping potential
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Elasticity price FR
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Cost-supply France
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FRANCE
price (Euro/KTOE
) Kton priceCum. Kton
animal waste -42 1594 -42 1594
Organic waste Industry+HH -42 4885 -42 6478
common sludges -42 1326 -42 7805
wet manure 0 17138 0 24943
Verge grass 21 719 21 25662
paper cardboard 21 10993 21 36655
wood-waste 39 8610 39 45265
OSR 2008 50 2634 50 47899
Sunflower 2008 50 130 50 48029
straw_2020 75 22269 75 70298
dry manure 84 224 84 70522
straw_2004 100 8920 100 79441
prunings 123 2911 123 82352
Perennials 2008 130 31 130 82384
Maize 2008 214 351 214 82735
Cereals 411 1936 411 84671
Sugarbeet 2008 415.9 1150.2 416 85821
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Cost-supply Netherlands
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Elasticity price NL
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
NETHERLANDSprice
(Euro/KTOE) Kton priceCum. Kton
animal waste -42 507 -42 507
Organic waste from
industry+HH -42 10253 -42 10760
common sludges -42 669 -42 11429
dry manure -21 404 -21 11833
wet manure 0 24834 0 36667
verge grass 21 136 21 36804
paper cardboard 21 3632 21 40435
wood-waste 27 2113 27 42548
OSR 2008 50 12 50 42561
prunings 126 40 126 42601
straw_2004 130 99 130 42700
straw_2020 136 136 136 42836
Maize 2008 300 8 300 42844
Sugarbeet 2008 0 42844
Sunflower 2008 0 42844
Cereals 0 42844
Perennials 2008 0 42844
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Cost-supply Germany
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Germany
price (Euro/KTOE
) Kton priceCummulative Kton
animal waste -42 333 -42 333
bmw -42 10792 -42 11126
common sludges -42 529 -42 11655
dry manure 0 88 0 11743
wet manure 0 13785 0 25528
bermgras 21 675 21 26202
paper cardboard 21 22602 21 48804
OSR 2008 50 3442 50 52246
wood-waste 64 9473 64 61719
straw_2004 93 13142 93 74861
straw_2020 98 15559 98 90420
prunings 110 417 110 90836
Perennials 2008 148 8 148 90844
Maize 2008 218 2601 218 93444
Cereals 416 788 416 94233
Sugarbeet 2008 562.4157549 52.689 562 94285
Sunflower 2008 0 94285
Elasticity price DE
0
10000
20000
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70000
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100000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
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Elasticity price PL
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
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60000
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Cost-supply Poland
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POLAND
price (Euro/KTOE
) Kton priceCummulative Kton
animal waste -42 2138 -42 2138
bmw -42 20103 -42 22241
common sludges -42 571 -42 22812
dry manure 0 2 0 22814
wet manure 0 363 0 23177
wood-waste 18 5319 18 28496
paper cardboard 21 9407 21 37903
bermgras 21 206 21 38109
prunings 47 668 47 38777
OSR 2008 50 2823 50 41600
straw_2020 100 8719 100 50319
straw_2004 105 4830 105 55150
Perennials 2008 148 248 148 55397
Maize 2008 0 55397
Sugarbeet 2008 0 55397
Sunflower 2008 0 55397
Cereals 0 55397
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Total cost-supply EU 2008
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Elasticity of biomass price in EU27
0
200000
400000
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Price (€/KTOE)
Cu
mu
lati
ve
am
ou
nt
of
bio
ma
ss
(k
ton
/ye
ar)
-Very large potential at very low price:
1)>50% Industrial + household wastes, but now mostly NOT used at all or not for bioenergy generation
2) By-products agriculture (straw, prunings)
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Conclusions
• Largest cheap potential in waste. Improved organisation of collection, treatment, logistics will improve access to this resource
• By-products from agriculture also have important potential, now still under-utilised.
• Forestry potential should be included. Will certainly add importantly.
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Future work – Draft results need further critical review and improvements
– Scenario application to extrapolate present potentials to future technical-economic and sustainable potential
– Forestry potential still to be included
– Cuttings/pruning from landscape elements, recreational and nature conservation areas should still be mapped. But difficult.
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