Download - Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Bill BakunUSGS -Menlo Park
Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue
Why not start now with California?
Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Three PartsHistorical, Instrumental,Future
Events Same attributes, different rules
Can be stitched together
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Status Quo
Many countries have national earthquake catalogs
Basis for important products
USA has no national catalog
Every probability report, every national ground motion map redefines the catalog
Waste of Time
Inconsistent Products
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
A European Historical Earthquake Catalog
Year Mo Da Ho
1578
1578 04 01
1578 04 27 11
1578 05 20 16
1578 10 21 04
1579 01 26 06
1579 01 30
1580
1580 04 06 18
1580 05 01
1580 11 03
1580 12 24
1581 03 10
1581 06 18 07
1582
1582 05
Ax
SCIACCA
Vrancea
GERA
BAS-PLATEAUX DAUPHINOIS
Melilla
MARCHE-BOISCHAUT ?
Lorca.MU
Myonia
DOVER STRAITS
DOVER STRAITS
TRANSYLVANIA
TRANSYLVANIA
BOXMEER
Málaga
Alcalá la Real
POZZUOLI
Lat Lon
37.508 13.083
45.700 26.600
50.880 12.230
45.583 5.350
35.267 -2.933
46.583 2.000
37.683 -1.700
38.450 22.310
51.000 1.660
51.000 1.660
46.500 24.000
46.500 24.000
51.600 5.900
36.717 -4.417
37.467 -3.933
40.822 14.123
Root RL Nmdp Ix
Barbano et al., 1996 11 1 7
Purcaru, 1979 22
Sieberg, 1940b 22
SisFrance, 2009 12 3 4
Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 8
SisFrance, 2009 12 20 7
Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 7
Kouskouna et al., 1998 11 10 8
Musson, 2008 11 91 7-8
Musson, 2008 11 7 F
Réthly, 1952 22
Réthly, 1952 22
Van Beurden, 1890 22
Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 2 7
Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 6-7
Arch.Mac.GNDT, 1995 11 1 7-8
?
Io Mw
7 5.17
6.50
5.00
6-7
8
7-8
7
9 6.80
5.46
3.92
7
7
4.30
7
7-8
7-8 5.37
earthquake parameters
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2
37.106, -7.873 5.74 ± 0.50
An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50
? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50
? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90
Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns
Review, revise
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50
? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90
Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns
Review, revise
Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Stakeholders
Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field
$$$: NRC, COE, PG&E
Enforcers: Management
Experts: All Views Represented
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
• Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes
• Supported by all stakeholders (NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.)
• Basis for all US earthquake hazard products
• A Unified Archive (Distributed?)
• Include Data Roots, alternative solutions
• Accessible-to-All On Line
Catalog Attributes:
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
27/12/1722 Algarve
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4
Baptista et al.,2007
Event Root MDPcompilation
Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw
Ic2B&W
NA4
Literature
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.117, -7.738
37.171, -7.774
36.979, -7.675
5.74 ± 0.50
5.40 ± 0.23
6.81 ± 0.50
6.41 ±0.50
5.60
Boxer i NA4
Boxer n NA4Ic2
B&W NA4
MEEP NA4
37.106, -7.873
37.106, -7.873
37.108, -7.837
37.074, -7.757
6.27 ±0.35
5.97 ±0.01
6.38 ±0.50
6.00 ±0.20
California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50
Martinez S. & M.,2002
Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50
? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90
Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50
Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results
Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns
Review, revise
Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
• The Easy Part: Instrumental List – Pointers to related Intensity
Data• The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List
– Historical earthquakes– -Paleoseismic events
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
•Instrumental Side: More to Do
• Explain Puzzling Magnitudes
•1949 Puget Sound
•1989 Loma Prieta
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Historical Earthquakes
• Build on the European experience
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
The Really Hard Part
• Controversial Historical Earthquakes– Different compilations of data– Different Analyses– Different Locations or Magnitudes
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
US Complexity Counterparts?
Historical?
Instrumental?
• 1811-1812 New Madrid•Where?• Magnitude?
• 1906 San Francisco• 3 Published Epicenters?• 3 Published Magnitudes?
Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008
Historical Earthquakes:• Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events)
• Construct Roots
• Empanel experts to select preferred solutions
• Management to Maintain and Support the catalog
•Do ii now!
•GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface