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#sappm15 @masteringsap#sappm15 @masteringsap
Carl KirsteinExxaro Resources Ltd.
Beyond Mobile Asset Management
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Data transfer speeds, storage, and processing power aregrowing exponentially* while the cost, size and powerconsumption are reducing at similar rates. Thingsunthinkable before have become possible, and eveninevitable.
But…
*#1 Gflops (year) = 72.472e0.6633(year-1993)
Main Message
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 2
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• Emergent Technology
• Workforce of the Future
• Riding the Wave
• Questions
• Key Points to Take Home
What I’ll Cover
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 3
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Technology in industry has been catching on slowly,because the repercussions of unreliability is far greaterthan not getting Facebook updates for a day or two. Alsoeverything connected is vulnerable to hackers and crackers.But technology and all its unknowns beckons to us…
The future depends on what you do today
Mahatma Gandhi
Introduction and Overview
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Emergent Technology
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 5
(within the next 5 to 8 years… probably)
It is always wise to look ahead, butdifficult to look further than you cansee.
Winston Churchill
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Emergent TechnologyVirtual Reality Augmented Reality Extrasensory
Internet of Things Big Data
3D Printing
Machine Learning & AI Exoskeletons & RoboticsAutomated Intelligence
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Virtual Reality
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Virtual Reality
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Virtual Reality
Virtual Reality (VR) is an immersive simulated environment, i.e. an artificial reality
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• Useful to immerse users in environments that are too dangerous or expensive otherwise.
– Simulators
– REDS: Readiness Exercises and Disaster Simulation
Virtual Reality
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Google Cardboard (now)$25*
Commercially available now or within 1 year
Samsung Gear VR (now)$200*
Sony Project Morpheus (2016)<$1,000
Oculus Rift Crescent Bay (2016)$300 - $400
HTC Vive (2016)<$1,000
Carl-Zeiss VR One (now)$99*
Avegant Glyph (2015)≈$500
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• Limited application beyond training, entertainment and conferencing.
• Sim Sickness - ‘reverse’ motion sickness • VR is likely to be short-lived.
Virtual Reality
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Augmented Reality
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Augmented Reality
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Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is an information layer on reality, i.e. an enriched reality
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• Useful to guide or inform users in actual environments
• Information is meant to be provided where it is applied,
but can also simulate realities like VR does.
Augmented Reality
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• Bona fide AR ‘senses’ and ‘interprets’ its environment andoverlays information on it. If the environment is notinterpreted, then it is a HUD or VR, not AR.
• Note: Some devices are marketed as AR, but they are onlyHUDs. With improved software they might become ARcapable.
Augmented RealityH
UD
AR
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• Barcode and QR-code scanners are reliable and fast
• Face recognition becoming more reliable and fast
Augmented Reality – how good is it now?
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• General image recognition becoming much faster.
• Spatial- and colour scanning in real time with a device of $100
(accuracy up to 1mm)
Augmented Reality – how good is it now?
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Commercially Available right now
ODG R-6 Smart Glasses$4,950http://www.osterhoutgroup.com/system-products
Vuzix M-100$999
http://www.vuzix.com/consumer/products_m100/
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Commercially Available within 2 years
DAQRI Smart helmet$5,000 - $10,000
ODG Consumer Glasses≈$1,000
CastAR≈$400
Epson Moverio BT-200≈$700
Meta 1 (DK)$667 - $3,650
Laster SeeThru≈$350
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Sony SED-E1≈$840
Optinvent ORA-1≈$950
Atheer One$500 - $850
Google Glass 1.0 2.0≈$1,500
Microsoft Hololens$800 - $2,000
Recon Jet≈$700
Commercially Available within 2 years
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Augmented Reality - is not just augmented sight
http://news.microsoft.com/stories/independence-day/
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• Extremely difficult to apply in an open world
– information richness and reliability of software
– social- and privacy issues (e.g. Google Glass)
• Firstly will be confined to controlled environments suchas operating rooms, workshops, industrial plants,warehouses, showrooms, and similar.
Augmented Reality
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Extrasensory Technology
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Extrasensory
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Extrasensory
Extrasensory (ES not ESP) is ‘hidden’ information layers of reality, i.e. reality we cannot perceive without help
Time Spectrum Spatial
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Extrasensory
Useful to get more information about the real world
Extrasensory today
• Thermography and thermo-chemical imaging
• Vibration and Acoustic• X-Rays and millimetre wave
scanning• Visual spatial scanning• Oil analyses• Spectroscopic, surface
analysis, SQUID, etc.• Pressure- and flow gauges
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Th
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Extrasensory - Costs
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Extrasensory
Monitor condition of personnel as well as equipment. PPE ofthe future?
Blood pressure sensor (1mm)
wireless electrocardiography system
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Condition- and Performance Monitoring will continuallybecome cheaper.
• Mobile Assets: more fixed ConMon devices
• Fixed Assets: more mobile ConMon devices
Will shift more maintenance tactics towards conditionbased… with Automated Intelligence new tactics such asprobability based, risk based or even value based willbecome prominent.
…but ConMon devices will require more (sophisticated) maintenance as well.
Extrasensory
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3D Printing
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 31
3D Printing
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3D Printing
3D printing is a type of Additive Manufacturing
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3D Printing
Additive manufacturing such as 3D printing has been around for a while and is useful for various applications
• Little to no waste.
• Build from the inside-out instead of outside-in: less assembly required; more possibilities.
• Buy or create designs, and manufacture it immediately (rapid availability, prototyping)
Applications of 3D printing started getting creative…
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• Stronger and cheaper* than before.
• Not likely to replace all kinds of manufacturing, only a portion.Economies of scale.
• Physical updates to equipment similar to App updates? Just downloadand ‘manufacture’ the latest design for the next maintenanceintervention.
3D Printing
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Automated Intelligence
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 36
Internet of Things
Big Data
Machine Learning & AI
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• IoT – Internet of Things, devices talking to devices.
• Big Data – too much structured and unstructured data to process or store conventionally.
• Machine Learning – algorithms that are ‘trained’ by new data.
• AI – Artificial Intelligence.
Automated Intelligence
All of these are interlinked towardautomated data processing anddecision making.
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• Data Science and Data Analytics seems to be the newfrontier of EAM solutions.
• Intelligence of analytical tools are increasing rapidly,predictive capabilities improving with learning machines.
• Eventually automated intelligence is supposed to provideanswers to questions you did not know to ask.
• in EAM currently
– SAP BI + Analytics
– IBM Oracle + Watson
Automated Intelligence
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Automated Intelligence
Readings - ‘unintelligible’, 1s and 0s, meters, gauges, instrumentation, etc
Processed Data – KPIs vs targets, ratios, aggregates, etc
Processed Information – analysis, interpretation, diagnosis
Processed Knowledge – decisions, prognosis, prediction
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Automated Intelligence
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• Open letter to safe-guard against AI… but AI likely toremain niche intelligences for the foreseeable future.
• Personal assistants up next, with much research goinginto analysing and predicting you.
– Google Now + Brain
– Microsoft Cortana + Einstein
– Apple Siri + Viv
– … big brother?
Automated Intelligence
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• Most automated intelligence drives are into the trough of disillusionment on the Gartner hype curve
– Some see Big Data as a fad, stating that faster data is better than more data.
– Some say that IoT is stupid devices talking each other… why does my fridge need to monitor my Facebook pages and tell my irrigation system what to do?
– Some big names calls AI an existential threat to humanity (Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, Steve Wozniak, and more).
– distrust of government and threat from cyber criminals pose serious threats
• … but it will probably prevail for better or worse.
Automated Intelligence
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Exoskeletons & Robotics
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Exoskeletons & Robotics
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• External augmentation of physical capabilities
Exoskeletons and Robotics
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• Current trends
– Safe human-robot interaction: soft- and ‘aware’ robots
– Non-powered exoskeletons
– Mechanization of operations
Exoskeletons and Robotics
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• Long-term trends
– Brain-Computer Interface
– Powered Exoskeletons
(DARPA, Hulc, Cyberdyne)
Exoskeletons and Robotics
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• Unmanned robots maintaining equipment is harder than replacing management with automated intelligence.
• It is likely that workers will be assisted more and more with tools such as exoskeletons and maybe even robotic rigs.
Exoskeletons and Robotics
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Workforce of the Future
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Who are the employees of tomorrow?
genetic engineeringquantum computingunmanned vehicles
nano-technologyclimate engineering
smart citiesgraphene
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• Gen-Y (millennials) will be 75% of workforce by 2020.
• Children growing up with tablets today… AR tomorrow?
Workforce of the Future
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• Technological Advancement in a company is constrained by the required skills and political expectations.
Workforce of the FutureFT
Es /
un
it o
utp
ut
per
Co
mp
any
Technological advancement
Highly Skilled – professional or specialist
Skilled – trade or qualification
Semi-skilled or unskilled
Future Skills Supply and Demand in Europe -- Forecast 2012
Labour Force by Level of Qualification (Europe)
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• BMW technician qualification level in 2015 vs 2000?
• Some large companies establish their own universities
• Education and training techniques need radical innovation
Quality of educators & coaches; cost & time; relevance of content;fit-for-individual; information accessibility; and assessment quality(assurance of capability).
Workforce of the Future
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• Emergent and Current Education Innovations
– Open Content – Wikipedia, Youtube, Howstuffworks, etc.
– MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) and Online Universities
– Gamification – e.g. Duolingo for languages
– Learning Analytics – predictive analytics used to evaluate ‘students’ and customise training material accordingly.
– Intelligent Technology – VR, AR, and connected mobile devices
• Soon?
– Virtual coaching and assessment - In time behaviour analysis and response; media and communication method customization per person.
Workforce of the Future
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• Majority of demand from service sector.
• More demand for:
– Information Design & Communications
– Data Mining - Data Scientists & Data Analysts
– Robotics and Control - Engineers & Technicians
– Professionals and Specialists
– Masterdata Administrators
• Less demand for:
– Unskilled and Semi-Skilled
– Data capturers
Workforce of the Future
Reports
poor data
Structured Raw Data
Archives
Unstructured Raw Data
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Riding the Wave
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 54
What should I do now?
The best thing about the future isthat it comes one day at a time
Abraham Lincoln
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Complexity of managing Assets is increasing, therefore
• Outsourcing of non-core functions
• OEMs selling function of their products, instead of the products.
• Total Life Cycle Management of products to provide service to client.
but 3D printing may change that
Riding the Wave
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Management paradigm is shifting toward ‘sense-making’
– Probe, sense, respond more than sense, analyse, respond
– Inter-connectivity and rapidity of events has increased sensitivity of market behaviour.
Riding the Wave
Prof Dave Snowden
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Riding the Wave
Cyn
efin
Fram
ewo
rk
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• Do not fall in love with complexity. Keep it as simple as possible, but not simpler.
• Quality of information before quantity of information.
• Solid business processes, practices, and master data.
• Don’t ‘hardcode’, plan to change easily and quickly.
• Technology Roadmaps.
• Keep the end(user) in mind.
Riding the Wave
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Key Points to Take Home
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 60
Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Extrasensory
Internet of Things Big Data
3D Printing
Machine Learning & AI Exoskeletons & Robotics
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#sappm15 @masteringsap
+27 12 307 4873
+27 83 408 6736
http://za.linkedin.com/pub/carl-kirstein/3/790/93a
Mastering SAP Plant Maintenance 2015 | 61