Download - Bangladesh Energy
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Bangladesh EnergySecurity
Dr. Mohammad Tamim
PMRE Dept, [email protected]
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Oct 12, 2006 IUB
Energy Security
Security
Present Global Energy Balance World Alternate Options
General Energy Security Issues Developing Countries and
Bangladesh Context
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Security
the effective monopoly on theuse or licensing of violencewithin a given territory
- Max Weber
(Could be violated from internal or external
forces limited to territorial physical security)
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What has Changed? Environment Security Resource Conflict
Energy Security Nuclear Proliferation Energy resource competition
New Defn of territory (Sea)12, 200, 350nautical miles External (Iraq-US, Japan-China) and Internal
(Aceh, East Timor, Nigeria, Sylhet?) conflicts
Reliable electric grid (US failure) State failure
Energy security has no commonalityand each issue should be dealt withindependently
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World primary energy
consumption
Source:BP Statistics
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Fossil fuel reserves-to-production
(R/P) ratios at end 2004
Most vulnerable is oil
(A linear projection!)
Source:BP Statistics
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IEA: Key Energy Statistics, 2003
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World Oil facts Produced 1 trillion barrel
Remaining reserve 1 trillion barrel
Undiscovered future resource 1 trillionbarrel (some optimists assumes 3 tr bl)
Total Resource 3 trillion barrel Daily Oil production 85 mbpd
US consumption 22 mbpd (60% import)
China consumption 6.5 mbpd (4% increase) 55 to 60% oil is used in Transport sector
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orld Reserves stimates Through Time
Middle East Production: ~130 Gb
Large reservesincrease during
80s oil price crash
Reserves unchangedafter massive production
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World Peak Oil stimates
http://trendlines.ca/Economic.htm
http://trendlines.ca/Economic.htmhttp://trendlines.ca/Economic.htm -
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Alternate (Fossil Fuel) Fossil Fuel
Tar Sand (192 billion barrel)
Hydrates
Oil Shale
DOFF (125 billion barrel)
All expensive but more than renewable? Efficiency and Conservation
Fuel cost for a 1550 mile trip today in USA (CBSNews)
Caravan SUV $258 (18 mpg) Honda Accord $130 (35 mpg)
Hybrid Prius $105 (44 mpg)
6% yearly replacement rate of cars in USA(A 3mpg increase in cars and light vehicles will reduce 1mbpd oil
consumption in US)
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1/1400 ofoil+gas+coal
1/1400 ofoil+gas+coal
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Alternate (Renewable) By nature restricted to
Geography (availability of land, wind and sun) Weather (Daily and seasonal variation)
Supplementary role (capacity factor)
Still Expensive but now competitivein limited areas for the high oil/gasprice
Can play a major role in reducing oildependency although not much helpin transport sector
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How to deal with it?
Safety and certainty in oil lie invariety and variety only
- Winston Churchill (1913)
Admiral of the British Naval Fleet
Beginning of Energy Security!?
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Energy Security (Contd.) Cooperation regional, global
Physical security of the entiresupply chain
Good quality public information,transparency
Technology Driven goodefficient responsible energyindustry, R&D investment
(So u r c e : Da n i e l Y e r g i n )
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Bangladesh Facts 6 tcf produced, 14 tcf remaining 2P gas
reserve with yearly consumption of 0.5 tcf
3.7 million ton of crude/finished PP importper year (costing $2 billion @$70/bl)
2.5 million ton diesel, 0.2 million tongasoline
Installed generation 5000 MW, capacity4200 MW, highest 3780 MW (now 2900!)
1500MW shortage of connected loadincluding REB (maybe more?)
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Bangladesh Facts Total energy purchase requirement
per year is about 2.5~3 billion dollarsand increasing (roughly 3% of GDP)
IPP power (40%) IOC Gas (30%, will be 40% in 2007)
Oil Import
Investment requirement on averageis at least 1.0 billion dollar per year
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Primary Energy
Consumption in Bangladesh Biomass is still
a majorcontributor
Renewable isless than 0.1percent
Hydro capacityis 120 MW(presently 20MW)
Gas
O il
oal
ioma
ss
Rewab
le
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Primary Energy (HYC) 7% oil growth?
6% gas growthin last five years
Coal isunaccounted for(1.5 mil ton/yr)
Average GDPgrowth is 4.5%
Gas
(69%)
Oil(24.5%)
Coal(6.5%)
Bangladesh
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Bangladesh
Vulnerability Lack of fund
Over dependence on single form ofenergy
Over dependence on single source
Inefficient energy market andregulatory framework
No regional network Lack of timely investment in E&P,
infrastructure (T&D, electric grid,
generation)
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Solution Will leave the lack of fund problem with the
economists and resource nationalists, whoopposed gas export but support Tata gasdeal!!!!
Open pit coal mining with all new powerplants coming from coal fired generation
If tripatriate pipeline deal doesnt come
through, should have a bilateral pipelinedeal with Myanmar
Maintain friendly relationship with all
middle east countries using whateverworks (historical tie, Muslim brotherhood,support in all international forum for theArab brothers, sending cheap labors! i.e.
good diplomacy)
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Solution (contd.) Market Reform Both private-public participation in oil import and
distribution Pricing not price! Accessibility
Availability
Acceptability Affordability
Based on Cost of service + reasonable profit
Marginal cost Opportunity cost
Subsidy
Regular posting of price/tariff structure for oil,
gas, electricity
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Solution (contd.) Immediate investment in reserve
assessment (3D seismic, appraisal drilling)
and a thorough demand forecasting (microlevel)
Vigorous drilling for exploration and
development with clear policy directive Explore possibility for LNG re-gasificationplant (plan B if exploration fails) or gasfrom Myanmar
Major thrust to generate more biomass andefficient use
Supplementary renewable if we can afford
it!
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Bottom Line!
Energy Security doesnt come in a separate package!
So If we cant manage our economy .!