7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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r an
oo
anagemen :
owar s
o s c
pproac
Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient?
Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi, ICHARM
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Death Tolls Are Decreasing but Economic Losses Keep
Increasin
in H dro
‐Met
Disasters
Economic losses495
450
500
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Billions of USD per decade
related to d sastersare on the way up
160
345
200
250
300
350
400
4 11 1424
47
88103
0
50
100
150
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05
eca e
2.66
2.5
3
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Millions of casualties per decade
While casualtiesrelated to hydro-
1.73
0.671
1.5
2meteorologicaldisasters are
decreasin
Source: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database0.05
0.17
0.39
.
0.22 0.25 0.22
0
0.5
56-65 66-75 76-85 86-95 96-05decade
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Why?
• Early warning
&
evacuation
• Flood control works, sabo works, slope protection
• Land use regulation, education, emergency preparedness
Increasing economic
losses:
• Exposure of vulnerable assets & activities are increasing
• Infrastructure investment does not catch up with economic
eve opmen• Land use planning/regulation, insurance, community
re aredness etc. are insufficient
•Interdependency of value chain, supply chain
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Higher level physical protection is necessary
for economic
develo ment
• All societies are living with nature but their capacity of
accumulating wealth depends on their controllability of
hazardous nature.
economic activity of the land.
photo: MLIT Sep 2000 FukuokaStation
photo: Shafiqul Is lam1 Aug 2007 Sirajgong District , Bangladesh
http://gphoto.exblog.jp/6031088/
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Chao Phraya Flood 2011
Tyhoons Nock‐ten late July & 145% of
averageJun‐Sep of ‘08‐’1013 Oct, 2011 by MODIS
815 deaths (with 3 missing) and 13.6
million people
affected.
<EOCFSL, DPMD, MI>
Evacuation around 20 Oct – Mid Dec in BKK
Economic damages
• 20,000 km2 of farmland & 7 industrial
complexes with
460/3100
JP
companies
Nakhon Sawan
(700 all together)
• Toyota, Honda, Western Digital, Hitachi,
Canon, Nikon, Nissan, Sony, Toray, TDK,
, ,
• Market share of HDD was 30%, 2nd in the
World.
• th‐
Ayutthaya
. ,
309), Hanshin (100), Katrina (81) ,
Sandy
(62, NYS
Gov)
<by
WB>
Bangkok
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Chao Phraya Flood, Aug-Nov 2011
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient?
• ,
• Engineering solutions
work
only
with
good
,
management
and
sustainable
holistic
societal
.Hydrological
cycle
Landuse
Environmental
System
IWRM
Socio-
Economic System
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Illegal Housing over River/River Courses
J akarta, 25 May 2007
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Debris Dam up & Flood
25 May 2007, J akarta
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Mangahan Floodway
28 May 2007
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Over Housing and Land Subsidence
J akarta 3 Feb 2007 J LT post (left) & BBC (above)
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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On 27 July 2008 Toga River in Kobe
5 pupils and adults died.
a c men rea . m , eng . m
Slopes 1/35 upstream 1/20
14:36 Rainfall started 15-20mm/10 min
14:42 Discharge started
.
. m
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Engineering Solutions – Are they sufficient?
No
not
at
all!
•
effective only
with
many
non
‐engineering
,
• Disaster risk reduction is basically a political
,
management, early warning, emergency
,
, recovery policy, insurance & public subsidy,
, , …
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Engineering Solutions – Are they sufficient?
No
not
at
all!
• .
• Public awareness
raising
is
the
basis.
• Governance in DRR an isaster management.
– WMO mission
to
Myanmar
right
after
the
Nargis
in May 2008 Cyc one warnings were su icient.
Deaths inevitable”. 138 000 died.
–
m raseys an
am
orrup on
s ,
Nature, 13 Jan 2011
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Monitor Disaster Risk & Preparedness
Current Risk Level Preparedness
Hazard xposure
(Vulnerability)
Risk
• Vulnerabilitymonitorin
Unprepared
RemaininPositive
Spiral Current Preparedness
Level
• PDCA cycle
Risk
Non-
Structural
• Early Warning• Emergency Response• Education, Awareness
Prepared
for lifeR isk=H x E (V)
without
Raising, Social Capital• Participatory Approach• Governance•
Prepared
protection
• OMR
• Structural Infrastructure
,
properties
& livelihood 15
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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Agenda for post‐Hyogo & post‐MDGs/SDGs
SDG Target by 2030 proposals Halve the population exposed to high disaster risk of natural
hazards.
extreme natural hazards.
‐15‐1 5
Establish standard methodologies of monitoring risk,
vulnerabilit and re aredness.
Establish an institutional system to implement risk
monitoring & risk reduction.
Stronger political action based on scientific knowledge.
7/29/2019 AWW2013 Engineering Solutions: Are They Sufficient? by Prof. Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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居安思危 Be aware of risk while we are safe
Awareness leads us preparedness
有備無患 Preparedness leaves us no regretg
「春秋」左氏伝Source: Zuo Qiuming “ Zuoshi Commentary”
in Confucius ed. ” Spring and Autumn” , 480BC
Let us ally for
-
www.icharm.pwri.go.jp
ICHARM preparedness for floods
Future Earth