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Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association
Adelaide, 16 April 2007
The Future Environment for Energy Business
Jesse H. AusubelProgram for the Human Environment
The Rockefeller University, New York City
http://phe.rockefeller.edu
Acknowledgements:C. Marchetti, N. Victor, P. Waggoner, E. Yantovski
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A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.
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Carbon Atoms per Hydrogen Atom in HydrocarbonsEvolution from Wood to Methane Decarbonizes
Source: Ausubel, 2007
(water removed; charcoal pure C)
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0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150
Source: Ausubel 2007, after Ausubel, 1996 and Marchetti, 1985
C:H
DecarbonizationEvolution of C:H Ratio in Global Fuel Mix
Wood C:H = 10:1
Coal C:H = 2:1
Oil C:H = 1:2
Methane C:H = 1:4 Methane Economy
Hydrogen Economy
NonFossil Hydrogen
When viewed as market substitution, decarbonization is a 300-year process for H to rise from 10% to 90% market share, midpoint 1935
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Data sources: IIASA, BP (1965-2001), CDIAC http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm
Decarbonization of Global Primary EnergyViewed as Declining Carbon Intensity of All Primary Energy
Carbon/Energykg /GJ
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
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Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003
Fuel Mass per Energy of Hydrocarbonseconomies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density and thus decarbonization
Fuel/Energykg/GJ
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Brown
Coal B
Brown
Coal A
Firewoo
d
Black C
oal D
Black C
oal C
Black C
oal B
Black C
oal A
Crude
Oil L
HV
Crude
Oil H
HVLP
G
Natura
l Gas
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Earth Luminosity 1996
Upward light flux measured at the top of the atmosphere, low-gain versionof the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Linescan System(DMSP/OLS) data, Elvidge et al.,US National Geophysical Data Center. J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.
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Luminosity if all were as luminous as Americans
J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2006.
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Increases in light flux if everyone outside USA lit like USA (1996-7) Or latent electricity demand, blue to white to red color ramp
Source: Nadja Makarova Victor & Jesse Ausubel, 2004
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US Passenger Travel Per Capita Per Day (Range)M
iles
Year
Cars (+ Buses + Motorcycles)
Walking
Trains
Horses
Air
Total (average per decade)
Sources: US Historical Abstracts; US Statistical Abstracts; A. Gruebler 1989; US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2006
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000.01
0.1
1
10
100
J. Ausubel, P. Meyer, N. Victor, 2007
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A spigot in the lower left might draw offthe carbon dioxide. Source: Ausubel, 2004
Methane-fueled Zero Emission Power Plant (ZEPP)Temperature up to 1,500 C, pressure to 400 atm
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Bankside Power Station, LondonOpened for power generation in 1953, became Tate Gallery in 2000
Comparably powerful plant built today could fit in 1/10th the space
“Footprint” covers 3.5 hectares
100m tall
Source: Ausubel 2004
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Like computers that comprise the Internet, power plants become more powerful AND SMALLER
US Ballistic Research Lab computer, mid 1950s
Dell laptop, 2004
Tennessee Valley Authority coal plant (date unknown)
Delivery of General Electric 480 MW natural gas turbine, 2000
J. Ausubel & T. Barrett, 2004
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Source: Olav Bolland http://folk.ntnu.no/obolland
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A lake of liquid methane surrounded by mountains of solid ice on Titan. Source: Huygens probe, ESA.
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Shelf break: Continental marginsthe methane frontier?
Shelf break: Continental marginsthe methane frontier?
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Gulf of Mexico Census of Marine LifeGulf of Mexico Census of Marine Life Expedition to Deep Slope 2006Expedition to Deep Slope 2006
Ian MacDonaldIan MacDonaldBruce Strickrott Bruce Strickrott AquaPix, Bob CarneyAquaPix, Bob Carney Ian MacDonaldIan MacDonald
First systematic exploration of First systematic exploration of hydrocarbon seep communities hydrocarbon seep communities deeper than 1000m Source: ChEssdeeper than 1000m Source: ChEss
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Storegga, Norway, 120 km offshore, 1000 m deepOrmen Lange gas field, without conventional offshore platformsProduction expected October 2007
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Census of Marine Life Arctic Jelliesphotographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft
Census of Marine Life Arctic Jelliesphotographers: K. Raskoff, R. Hopcroft
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Garbage collected in 4000 m depthin Ierapetra Basin south of Crete Source: CEDAMAR
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There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.
There are no ocean deserts! Beautiful life abounds everywhere. Conserve it.
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USA: Hydrogen production, 1971- 2003semi-log scale
Source: N. M. Victor and J.H. Ausubel, 2006
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Mill
ion
s o
f c
ub
ic f
eet
104
105
106
Year
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Falling hydrogen price versus hydrogen production, USA, 1971-2003
1
10
10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Annual production, millions of cubic feet
2000
US
$/10
e3 c
ub
ic f
eet
J. Ausubel and N. Victor, 2005
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USA: Fossil Fuel Production Prices and H2 Price Estimates, 1970-2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
'200
0 U
S D
olla
rs p
er G
J
Coal
Gas
Crude Oil
H2
Motor Gasoline
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2005
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1.00E+00
1.00E+01
1.00E+02
1.00E+03
1.00E+04
1.00E+05
1.00E+06
1.00E+07
1.00E+08
fuel mass per energy including nuclear fuelseconomies of scale favor fuels suited to higher power density, thus decarbonization
& thus finally nuclear sources 10,000 X more compact than hydrocarbons
Uranium
Source: N. Victor & J. Ausubel, 2003
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
10-4
10-5
10
1Fuel/Energykg/GJ
To produce with solar cells the energy generated in 1 liter of coreof a nuclear reactor, one needs ~ 1 hectare (10,000 square meters) of solar cells!
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Renewable Energy Production Intensitiesin watts per square meter, a story of weakness• Hydro:
– Hoover Dam 0.0014
– Hydro: All US dams 0.0049
– Hydro: Ontario 0.012
• Biomass:
– ethanol from corn (net) 0.047
– New England forest 0.12
– Ocean biomass 0.6
– Corn (whole plant) 0.75
– Sugar cane (intensively farmed) 3.7
• Wind 1.2
• Solar thermal (actual) 3.2
Sources: Ausubel, Hayden
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Spatial scale: Nuclear and WindCalifornia Coast
10% Wind Equivalent
5 Miles
Diablo Canyon
2200 MWPower Plant
Source: P. Grant
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Endless sea of methane photographed from Titan’s surface by probe Huygens, 14 January 2005 (ESA). See also “The Lakes of Titan,” 4 January 2007, Nature magazine, Stofan et al.
2017: Australian Methane Production and Exploration Association
Text and figures posted at http://phe.rockefeller.edu