PhD candidate: Mabelle Chedid
Advisors: Jean-Francois Tourrand / CIRAD
Co- advisor: Shadi Hamadeh / AUB
Montpellier, September 2015
Assessing the sustainability of the integrated crop-livestock systems in
Lebanon – case study: West Bekaa and Mount Lebanon.
Preliminary results
Outline
1. Objectives
2. Rationale
3. Methodology
4. Achieved work + Preliminary results
5. On-going activities
6. Future activities
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1. Objectives
Determine the indicators of sustainability of crop-livestock systems in a Mediterranean country: Lebanon
- Identify the risks/vulnerabilities on the local and regional levels
- Define the adaptation strategies of the various types of farms facing these risks/vulnerabilities
- Build a model based on the indicators and test the different scenarios with local people
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2. Rationale
• No previous work on the resilience of farming systems in the country
• The sustainability models used in Lebanon are adapted from the French model IDEA and not created specifically for the Lebanese context
• Interest in studying the resilience of the farming systems in the light of the long history and present situation of the Lebanese people
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Resilience is the capacity of a system to recover, reorganize itself and develop after being subject to external stresses and disturbances (Walker et al., 2004) Past exposures to disturbance are important to build resilience (Holling, 1973; Levin et al., 1998). Hence the ability to learn and adapt plays an important role (Folke et al., 2002).
Risk Impact Change Adaptation Resilience
How to define resilience?
QUESTION: assess the resilience
What factors are affecting the farms’ resilience?
What indicators to measure this resilience?
What are the different strategies adopted by the farming systems facing their vulnerabilities?
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3.METHODOLOGY
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Describe Understand Model Share with
local stakeholders
Survey – data collection
Literature
8 Achieved work
Lebanese Republic Surface area: 10452 sq. km Population: Apr. 4.4 M Study area: Apr. 1669 sq.km
Why West Bekaa & Mount Lebanon?
• ESDU projects: focusing on these 2 regions
• Accessibility
• Previous projects: focused on the Northern Bekaa – Aarsal
• Importance of farming systems in both regions and interest in studying them
9 Achieved work
10 Achieved work
11 Achieved work – Preliminary result
Description of the study area (2 research sites)
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Between the Eastern slopes of Mount Lebanon and the Anti-Lebanon mountains – 1950/700/2814 alt. (mount Hermon)
610 - 1352 mm of rain
Vineyards, vegetables, forage , cereals and fruits orchards
Table grapes
Intensive bovine production. Large herds of small ruminants grazing on natural pastures and crop residues
West Bekaa Southern Western slopes of
Mount Lebanon – 600 to 1950 m alt.
600 – 1200 mm of rain
Olive groves, orchards of figs, apple, peaches
Small to medium sized bovine farms. Small ruminant herds graze on mountainous pastures
Shouf
Achieved work
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Description of the study area
Proximity to the Syrian borders
Linked to large markets in W.B and C.B to sell agricultural crops
West Bekaa
Presence of the Shouf Cedars Natural Reserve
Linked to large markets in the costal Shouf to sell agricultural crops
Shouf
Achieved work
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Pastures (Mount Lebanon)
West Bekaa
Shouf
Animal Feed
Description of the study area
Relation between the W.B and Shouf
Central Bekaa
Achieved work
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Winter Pastures – W.B.
Achieved work
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Summer Pastures – W.B
Summer and Winter Pastures during winter – W.B. Achieved work
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Small bovine farms in the Shouf and W.B.
Achieved work
Survey (Jan14-Jan15)
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Selected villages
Animal husbandry activities
Key persons and contacts
from previous projects
Direct interviews with the farmers (questionnaires)
Achieved work
4. Achieved work + Preliminary results
Questionnaire
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Social data
Age
Education
Family labor
Outsourced labor
Other occupation
Est. of the farm
Farm Activities
Land tenure and surface
Composition of the herd
Land use: crops
Pastures use and feed source
Milk value chain
Changes
Farm activities
Number of animals
Milk and crop production
Pastures
Market
Climate
Reasons (Perception of change)
Economic data
Income of different activities
Farm expenses
Contribution of the farm
to household income
Adaptation
Achieved work
4. Achieved work + Preliminary results
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77 FARMERS in 39 VILLAGES
Bovine 49%
Small ruminants
only 47%
Bovine + SR 4%
Herds composition
Chouf 42%
West Bekaa 58%
Farms distribution
Caprine only 54%
Ovine only 5%
Caprine & ovine 41%
Achieved work
4. Achieved work + Preliminary results
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Pastures: less productivity, loss of some wild plants sp., limited access etc. Decrease in milk prices Increase in feed prices & cost of production Decline in crop and/or milk production Animal health: unknown diseases, decreased fertility and productivity
Climate change: decreased precipitations, drought and high temperatures Local and national policies regulating access to pastures, milk & feed prices Market: less opportunities, monopoly by traders, animal traffic from Syria Political/security situation, lack of government support
Number of herd: increase, decrease Feed: rent pastures, seek new pastures, spend more time on pastures, supplement animals with feed Change herd mobility More vaccination and treatments Nothing
CHANGES REASONS ADAPTATION
PERCEPTION of the FARMERS ACTION of the FARMERS
Preliminary results
Typology of the systems: Variables selection
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SOCIAL FARM ASSETS FARM ACTIVITIES MILK
• 2 types comparison Region
• 3 types bovine, caprine, caprine + ovine Herd
• 2 types animal husbandry, animal-crop integrated Activity
On-going
5. On-going activities
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FARMS TYPES
PERCEPTION of CHANGE
ADAPTATION to CHANGE
Typology of the systems
On-going
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FARMER - Age - Village - Full-time - P. Labor - Family labor - Land - Decision
making - Adaptation
HERD - Bovine - Caprine - Ovine - Mixt SR
- Production - Reproduction
MILK - Processing - Sale of dairy
products - Direct sale - Indirect sale
CROP - Trees - Vegetables - Cereals/forage - Subsistence/co
mmercial
- Yields
PASTURE - Summer/winter - Type - Location - Tenure/rights
Other SALES - Kids - Lambs - Calves - Manure
EXTERNAL FACTORS
Climate
Policies
Market
Political/security situation
ADAPTATION
On-going
6. Future Activities
Build the model based on the indicators and factors
Test the resilience through simulations
Debate and share (validate) the model through participatory workshops with local stakeholders (farmers, extension officers, agro-engineers, feed suppliers, etc.)
Adjust the model accordingly
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Survey & Data collection
Literature
Statistical analyses + typology
Determining the sustainability indicators
Building the model
Test the model and discuss it
6. Future Activities
Thank you!
REFERENCES
• Folke, C.; Carpenter, S.; Elmqvist, T.; Gunderson, L.; Holling, C.S.; Walker, B. Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations. Ambio Vol. 31 No. 5, August 2002.
• Holling, C.S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 1973, 4, 1–23.
• Levin, S.A.; Barrett, S.; Aniyar, S.; Baumol, W.; Bliss, C.; Bolin, B.; Dasgupta, P.; Ehrlich, P.; Folke, C.; Gren, I.-M.; et al. Resilience in natural and socioeconomic systems. Environ. Dev. Econ. 1998, 3, 221–262.
• Walker, B.; Holling, C.S.; Carpenter, S.R.; Kinzig, A.P. Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social–ecological systems. Ecol. Soc. 2004, 9, 5.
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