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Annual U.S. Drought Highlights and Annual U.S. Drought Highlights and thethe
Seasonal Drought Outlooks: How Seasonal Drought Outlooks: How are We Doing?are We Doing?
3434thth Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
Monterey, CA, October 26-30, 2009Monterey, CA, October 26-30, 2009
Douglas Le Comte, CPCDouglas Le Comte, CPC
[email protected]@noaa.gov
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Lake Travis, Texas, July 2009
As of Oct 21, Lake Travis 34.4 feet below its historic September average (only lower in 1963 and 1951).
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Now an I-Phone App for the Drought Monitor!
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OutlineOutline
• Drought coverage in 2009 drops to its lowest level since 2001Drought coverage in 2009 drops to its lowest level since 2001
• Drought intensity peaked in August 2009 in southern Texas and Drought intensity peaked in August 2009 in southern Texas and (arguably) in January 2009 in California(arguably) in January 2009 in California
• We take a closer look at the Drought Outlooks for TexasWe take a closer look at the Drought Outlooks for Texas
• We look at some of the forecast tools (then and now)We look at some of the forecast tools (then and now)
• Overall U.S. skill trend continues upOverall U.S. skill trend continues up
• We plan to work with our partners to improve forecastsWe plan to work with our partners to improve forecasts
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USDM Coverage: The Past YearLate October 2008
22% D1 Coverage
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Late January 2009
21% D1 coverage
Drought in CA and TX intensifies; Southeast drought shrinks
Texas: Driest Dec-Feb in 114 years!
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“I’ve Seen Fire and I’ve [not] Seen Rain”James Taylor
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August ‘08 to March ’09 Change
DM change maps courtesy Rich Tinker, CPC
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Sep ’08 – Feb ’09: Driest on record for SC/S Texas
Deficits in southern Texas date back to the fall of 2007
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Late April 2009
18% D1 Coverage
Southern Texas further intensifies; CA improves; most of Southeast drought over (exc FL!)
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March ’09 to Sep ’09 Change
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Late July 2009Relief northern TX, worse in southern Texas; Wisconsin drought continues
14% D1 Coverage
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Late October 2009
D1 coverage = 13%
Major relief mid-October
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Calendar Year 2009 Change
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Water Year 2008-09 Change
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South Central Texas: 24-month Precipitation to August 2009
24-Month Running Precipitation (in.)
SC Texas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
Pre
cip
itata
tio
n (
in)
Lowest (38.54 in) since 1918 (38.01 in)Median = 71.43 in.
August PMDI = -6.42 in SC TX, lowest since Oct. 1956 (also -6.42).
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Drought Impacts Texas
“Bexar County (San Antonio) has lost 10,000 live oak trees this year.”
Ag damage in the $billions;
Widespread water restrictions
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We Have Seen Major Recent Improvement
• According to the US Drought Monitor, 27% of Texas was in Extreme Drought (D3-D4) on August 18, 2009. With recent rainfall, this number was down to 7% on October 13, 2009.
August 18, 2009October 20, 2009
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Increasing Optimism Since August for Relief
Oct 1, 2009 OutlookSep 3, 2009 OutlookAug 6, 2009 Outlook
El Nino onset significantly increases the odds for relief
ASO SON OND
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El Nino Rainfall vs All Years
Curtesy Robert Blaha
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Putting Together the U.S. Putting Together the U.S. Seasonal Drought OutlookSeasonal Drought Outlook
• A CPC productA CPC product
• Operational since Operational since March 2000March 2000
• Released 2/monthReleased 2/month
• Subjectively blends Subjectively blends temp/prcp/soil temp/prcp/soil moisture forecasts moisture forecasts from short term to from short term to seasonal as well as seasonal as well as climatological climatological considerationsconsiderations
• Verification based on Verification based on category changes in category changes in the USDMthe USDM
• Current format O.K . Current format O.K . for general trends, for general trends, but too vague for use but too vague for use by water managers by water managers and ag communityand ag community
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The Texas Drought: How Good Were the Forecasts?
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Drought Outlook Skill—All of USA
Heavy spring rains in 2009 hurt scores in Texas and Florida
Drought Outlook Verification ScoreForecasts Made Jul '03 - Mar '09
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul '03 Apr '04 Jan '05 Oct '05 Jul '06 Apr'07 Sep'07 Feb'08 Jun'08 Nov'08 Mar'09
Date of Forecast
Perc
en
t o
f A
rea C
orr
ect
Percent of Area Correct Persistence Score
MEAN SCORE MEAN Persistence
Drought Outlook Skill -- Forecast minus PersistenceForecasts Made Jul '03 - Mar '09
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jul '03 Apr '04 Jan '05 Oct '05 Jul '06 Apr'07 Sep'07 Feb'08 Jun'08 Nov'08 Mar'09
Date of Forecast
Fo
recast
Less P
ers
iste
nce
Skill MEAN Linear (Skill)
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Progression of DO Forecasts for TX(Verification Below)
Nov 20 2008 (for DJF) Dec 18 2008 (JFM) Jan 15 2009 (FMA)
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Progression of DO for Texas
Feb. 19 2009 (MAM) Mar. 19 (AMJ) Apr. 16 2009 (MJJ)
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Odds for Palmer Drought Improvement April to July When March in Drought
April to July Past Palmer Changes Texas CD 9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
WORSE BETTER
No
. o
f C
ases
No. of Cases
Southern Texas
A 77% chance that the PMDI would decline during the period (1951-2006 data)
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Summer Drought Outlooks: How Summer Drought Outlooks: How Good?Good?
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Drought Outlook Verification May to August
Not so good for S TX
Good for rest of USA
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Drought Outlook Verification June to August
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Summer CPC Precipitation OutlookSummer CPC Precipitation OutlookForecast
Verification
Missed dryness in 3 areas potentially affected drought forecast
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Summer 2009 Percent of Normal Rainfall
Southern TX: one of hottest and driest summers on record
Driest summer (1.38 in) in San Antonio since 1871
Hottest summer on record at: McAllen, Austin, Del Rio, San Antonio, Corpus Christi, etc.
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Finding accurate seasonal forecasts for JJA 2009 is like looking for an honest politician
in Washington… nearly futile!
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SWCast Rocks for the Southwest!
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Only a Few Summer Forecasts Indicated Dryness in Southern Texas
• EuroSip
• CFS
• CFS Downscaled
• SINTEX (Japan)
• Beijing Climate Center
• El Nino composites
• Selected ENSO transition composites
All forecasts understated the intensity of the heat/dryness in S TX!
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JJA 2009 Sintex Precip Anomsfrom May 1
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Hint of Dryness from the CFS
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Coastal Dryness from the EuroSIP
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CFS Downscaled Soil Moisture Probabilities
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An ENSO Transition Year Composite: JJA Precipitation (Standardized Anomalies)
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Selected Experimental Products for Improved Monitoring and Forecasting
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University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington3-month Soil Moisture Forecast All Years
Forecast Soil Moisture El Nino Years
El Nino reduces drought odds
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Innovative Use of Historical PDI Innovative Use of Historical PDI DataData
Created by Rich Tinker, CPC
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The Next Generation ForecastsThe Next Generation Forecasts
Goal: Forecast drought Goal: Forecast drought probabilities to better manage probabilities to better manage drought riskdrought risk
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Concept: Milk More Information from Forecasts and Past Weather to
Provide Drought Outlook Information in Probabilistic Formats
Piggyback on existing Work of hydrologists at EMC, Princeton, Univ.
of Washington, etc.
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Sample Soil Moisture Anomaly Sample Soil Moisture Anomaly ForecastsForecasts
Princeton-EMC Downscaling of Princeton-EMC Downscaling of the CFSthe CFS
Downscaling Downscaling of CPC fcstof CPC fcst
Downscaling Downscaling of ESPof ESP
NLDAS forecasts are a NLDAS forecasts are a good start. The good start. The various forecast various forecast techniques must be techniques must be verified.verified.
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Major Players: Development StageMajor Players: Development Stage
EMC Land- EMC Land- Hydrology TeamHydrology Team
(Produce prototype(Produce prototype forecasts)forecasts)
CPC DroughtCPC Drought Outlook TeamOutlook Team
(provides guidance on (provides guidance on operational products)operational products)
o Princeton Land Sfc Hydro Grpo Princeton Land Sfc Hydro Grpo NWS Office of Hydro Develop.o NWS Office of Hydro Develop.o U. of WA Land Sfc Hydro Res.o U. of WA Land Sfc Hydro Res.
o RFCs (contribute methodology)o RFCs (contribute methodology)
CPC CPC Research Research (KM, HV, etc)(KM, HV, etc)
Climate Climate Test Bed Test Bed ResearchResearch
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Proposed Suite of Probabilistic Seasonal Proposed Suite of Probabilistic Seasonal Drought ForecastsDrought Forecasts
Probability of Ag. Drought
Probability of Hydro Drought
Probability of Drought
Total Column 2-m Soil Moisture
Change Map
Change in soil moisture percentiles
Change Map
Top 40 cm or root zone soil moisture
Change in soil moisture percentiles
Probability of Runoff or Streamflows
Change Map
Change in runoff or streamflow percentiles
Total Drought
Agricultural (Short-term) Drought
Hydro (Long-term) Drought
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Questions?