Download - After Sandy Who’s next? - RenaissanceRe
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After Sandy – Who’s next? Meteorologist perspective
Bill Read
KPRC Houston Hurricane Expert
Former Director National Hurricane Center
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West Coast FL
2010 4.4 million forecast to grow
to 6.3 million 2040
Highest percentage of retirees
of any coastal region
Lack of evacuation routes
Very vulnerable to storm surge
Generations since big surge
event
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SW Florida Evacuation Zones
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Savannah-Charleston
There’s a good reason
they call it the “Low
Country” - vulnerable
to high storm surge
750,000 in 2010
projected to 1.1 million
2040
Fastest growing
demographic is
retirees
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Big events
Sea Islands Hurricane 1893 Hugo 1989
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Large eye wall and fast
movement lead to significant
inland impact
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Hugo storm surge
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Source: RENCI at East Carolina University
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Chatham County
(Savannah)
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Virginia Tidewater
More than ½ the 1.7
million people at risk
of surge
Difficult evacuation
scenario
“Big One” 1667 and
1749
Close calls 1933 and
Isabel, 2003
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Storm Surge worse in highest
developed areas
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Lower Rio Grande Valley
U.S. 2010 – 1.2 million 2030 - 2.0 million
Almost twice as many live in Mexico’s LRGV
High flood and wind risk (poor residential construction)
Demographics - low income - lack of transportation – big vulnerable population across the border challenge to evacuation and response
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"A colonia is a group of homes that
used to be fields. At the time when
they were starting to build they
didn't have any roads or utilities.
When they started building clusters
of homes they would call it a colonia
- for example, Las Palmas, and it
would stick. You go in a colonia and
you can see a beautiful home, not a
rich home, but a nice home, in the
middle of poor homes. You look
across the street and there's a
house that's almost falling down. Or
you might see a trailer attached to a
little frame building."-Genoveva
Martinez, Training Specialist and
former Promotora
300,000 people
live in Colonias in
LRGV
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Allen, 1980
Beulah, 1967
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Rainwater flooding higher risk
than surge for most of Valley
Beulah, 1967
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Summary
Many vulnerable communities from Maine to Brownsville
Geography and demographics quite variable
People challenge greater than meteorological challenge
Growth in at-risk areas leading to increasingly complex
evacuation and response
And…
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…where it has happened
before, it can happen again…