AFRICA’S CHANGING FARM STRUCTURE AND THE EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE
T.S. Jayne, J. Chamberlin, D. Headey, A. Chapoto, M. Muyanga, N. Sitko
Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)
Presentation at IFPRI Headquarters, Washington, DC, September 4, 2014
62% < 25 years old
Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015
[0-4]
[5-9]
[10-14]
[15-19]
[20-24]
[25-29]
[30-34]
[35-39]
[40-44]
[45-49]
[50-54]
[55-59]
[60-64]
[65-69]
[70-74]
[75-79]
[80+]
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Rural
Male Female
Source: UN Pop Council, 2013
Conclusion 1
Africa’s arable land is highly concentrated,
both between and within countries
Non-forested unutilized land1
(million ha)Proportion Cumulative
Proportion
DRC 84.8 46.5% 46.5%Angola 18.9 10.4% 56.9%Congo 12.9 7.1% 63.9%Zambia 10.8 5.9% 69.9%Cameroon 10.5 5.7% 75.6%Mozambique 9.0 4.9% 80.5%CAR 7.1 3.9% 84.4%Gabon 6.5 3.6% 88.0%Sudan 5.8 3.2% 91.2%
Rest of Africa (n=45) 8.8% 100.0%
Nine countries contain 90% of Africa’s unutilized arable land
Clustering of rural populations: Zambia
Clustering of rural populations: Kenya
Conclusion 2
Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)
Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total farmland
Share of landholding
2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.
Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total farmland
Share of landholding
2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.
Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)
Landholding size Category
Number of farms % change
(2001-2012)
% of total farmland
Share of landholding
2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)
0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%
2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%
5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%
10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%
20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%
Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.
Crop sales by farm size, Zambia
2000/1
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)
Season
Mea
n sa
les
(201
1 Zm
k ‘0
00s
pric
es)
11
Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations
Crop sales by farm size, Zambia
2000/1
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)
Season
Mea
n sa
les
(201
1 Zm
k ‘0
00s
pric
es)
12
Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations
Largest smallholder farms (9%) consistently doing better
Conclusion 3
Land controlled by MS farms exceeds
that of LS (foreign + domestic
combined)
More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale, including LS foreign investors
Large scale (foreign+domestic)
Medium scale (5-100 ha)
Million hectares
Ghana (cultivated) 3.08 4.21
Kenya (cultivated) 0.69 0.84
Zambia (owned) 2.11 2.47
Characteristics of medium-scale farmers
• In most countries:• Urban-based• Primary employment = salaried job• Relatively highly educated• Primarily men
• In central / northern Ghana:• Most started out as small-scale farmers scaled-up• Acquired land from customary authorities• Relatively land-abundant environment
Conclusion 4
Medium-scale farmers control more land
than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in
Zambia and most likely in Ghana as well
Large scale Medium-scale (5-100 ha)
Small-scale (0-5 ha)
Total land controlled
Million hectares
Ghana (2005) 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37
Kenya (2006) 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16
Zambia (2012) 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67
Large scale
Medium-scale
(5-100 ha)
Small-scale
(0-5 ha)
Total land controlled
PAC remaining (arable +
grasslands)
Million hectares
Ghana 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37 3.56
Kenya 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16 1.01
Zambia 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67 3.35
Conclusion 5
The amount of land available for cropland
expansion (PAC) is between 20-35% of
total stock of arable land
Conclusion 5: PAC is sizeable but small in relation to land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana
PAC / already utilized + PAC
Including forest land Excluding forest land
Ghana (cultivated) 26.8% 22.4%
Kenya (cultivated) 21.5% 19.5%
Zambia (owned) 43.1% 33.4%
Conclusion 6
Rising concentration of
landholdings
Gini coefficients of landholding
Period Movement in Gini coefficient:
Ghana (cult. area) 1992 2005 0.54 0.65
Kenya (cult. area) 1994 2006 0.51 0.55
Zambia (landholding) 2001 2012 0.42 0.49
Conclusions
1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms
2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is owned by MS farmers than by LS farms
3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014)
4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are gradually shrinking for most farm hhs
5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings
6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)
Policy questions
1. Africa is enjoying 5% annual ag growth rates – who is driving this growth?
2. Are ag/employment/poverty reduction strategies compatible with countries’ land policies?
3. Will the rate of non-farm job growth depend on how inclusive agricultural growth is (multipliers)?
4. Will a commitment to inclusive agricultural development require area expansion and a change in land allocation policies?
Stylized fact:
A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated statistical relationship, which although essentially true, may have inaccuracies in the detail.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact