Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Shenggen Fan | Director GeneralInternational Food Policy Research Institute
Cork, Ireland | May 11, 2018
ADDRESSING MEGA-TRENDS FOR FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Outline
IFPRI works to address trends and tackle global hunger and malnutrition
Partnerships are critical to ensure food security and nutrition
Mega-trends impact food security and nutrition
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Mega-trends impacting food security and nutrition
Rapid population growth,
urbanization, and youth
Technological
innovations
Conflict, hunger, and
famine
Closing in on
planetary boundaries
Changing global
landscape
Food safety concerns &
anti-microbial resistance
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
1. De-globalization
• Growing uncertainty for trade and
FDI, heightened by political
developments (e.g. in US, UK) and
failed WTO Ministerial talks
• Migration and refugee crises persist
• Global commitment to Paris
Agreement and climate science in
question
?
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
2. Conflict is a main driver of hunger…
Across 18 countries, conflict and insecurity were main drivers of food insecurity for 74 million
people in 2017Source: FSIN 2018
GHI: Mixed progress across regions
Source: IFPRI 2017
Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers
of hunger in 2017
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
2. …and risk of famine and hunger have
increased
Source: FAO 2017
Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years
Source: FAO 2017
Global hunger is on the rise
(Prevalence of undernourishment)
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
3. Rapid urbanization & rising middle class…
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
67%
20502014
Urban
54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase is concentrated in Asia
and Africa
• China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900 million urban residents
Source: OECD 2010
0
20
40
60
80
2009 2020 2030
North America Europe
Central and South America Asia Pacific
Share of global middle class, 2009-2030 (%)
Source: UN 2014
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• Increase access to credit and resources
o Program for development of rural employment
(PADER) in Cameroon facilitates in-kind and
financial loans for youth farmer groups
o Warehouse receipt system for Tanzanian rural
youth provides access to credit and advance
payment for produce
• Make agriculture attractive to youth through
technology and innovation
o FarmDrive in Kenya improves farm performance
data and record keeping via mobile phones to
present credit-worthiness
• Engage youth with climate-smart agriculture
training
40% of world’s youth are either unemployed
or working but poor
Source: World Bank 2016
Average youth unemployment rate
10
11
12
13
14
15
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
World
SSA
Source: ILO 2016
Source: Devex 2017, IFAD 2012
3. …high youth unemployment…
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
3. ..and changing diets toward more animal products
Changes in composition of diets (per capita)
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Prevalence of anemia among women aged 15-49, 2016
Source: GNR 2016, NCD-RisC 2016
Adult overweight and obesity, 2010 and 2014 (%)
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2017
155 million children
stunted worldwide(2016)
Multiple burdens of malnutrition persist
By 2025, 18% of men and 21% of women
will be obese globally, if post-2000
trends continue
Source: GNR 2017
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Obesity increases the risk of NCDs
Source: GNR 2017
• Metabolic risk factors increase risk of NCDs
o Overweight and obesity
o Raised blood pressure
o High blood glucose levels
o High levels of fat in the blood
• Unhealthy diets contribute to obesity and
NCDs, including diabetes, heart disease,
stroke, and cancer
• 4.1 million annual deaths attributed to excess
sodium intake
Metabolic risk factors for diet-related NCDs globally (%)
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation
Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
Without drastic changes to agri-food
systems, we will not be able to meet the
2°C target
• Under BAU, agriculture will emit 20.2
GtCO2e/yr, almost reaching 2°C target
emission allowance for all sectors in 2050
(~21 GtCO2eyr-1)
• Food system transformation will be key for
sufficient mitigation, e.g. yield gap closure,
food waste reduction, and healthy diets
(YG3 scenario)CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• Substantial economic costs of
lacking food safety
o USA: Foodborne illnesses cost $14 - 152
billion annually
o China: $970 million in losses in 2014 from
tainted meat
• Nutrition, food safety, and health
must be priorities
Source: Adapted from WHO 2015
• To ensure accessibility
o Productive, cross-sectoral social protection in the short run
o Equity growth in the long run
5. Food safety concerns for nutrition, health and livelihoods…
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
Projected extra healthcare expenditures
Sources: Word Bank 2017
• AMR will impact human health –
increased morbidity and mortality
• Livestock production will also be
impacted
• Lead to lower productivity, lower
supply of livestock production,
increased prices for major protein
sources
• Decrease world trade
• Increase extreme poverty
5. …and anti-microbial resistance becoming prominent
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
6. Emerging technological in and out of
agriculture
Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016
Automation and mechanization
• Increasing use of machines and
electronics in agriculture
• Implications on youth unemployment –
need to move jobs to post-harvest service
sector
Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming
• Estimated US$750 million in North American
private investment in vertical farming
(through Q3 2017)
• Economically viable and sustainable
Biotechnology
• Gene sequencing
‒ Dramatic reduction in cost to ~US $1,245/genome
‒ Sequenced crop genomes could improve
agriculture in challenging climates
Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016
Shenggen Fan, October 2017
IFPRI’s strategy refresh to respond to emerging issues
New priorities in the refreshed strategy include:
• Food industry for people and planet
• Climate-resilient food systems
• Urban food and nutrition security
• Overweight / obesity
• NCDs
• Governance and power of the food system
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• China—long-term impacts of famine
o Famine in 1950s – 1960s led to an estimated
20-30 million deaths in China
o Origins of famine traced to several factors
o Excessive food consumption in collective dining
halls
o Lower production incentives
o Preferential supply of food to cities
o Long-term health impacts: Constrained diets
in early life and exposure to abundant food
supply in later life linked to overweight and
obesity, especially for women
IFPRI research highlights
Understanding and preventing famine
Source: Lui, Mu, and Zhang 2006
• Ethiopia—famine as a development issue
o 1970-71: Despite adequate food supply,
inability to distribute food (due to poor
infrastructure, conflict) can cause famine-like
conditions
o 1983-84: Famines can undermine resource
base of the poor, reducing their ability to cope
even in the absence of disaster
o In last 20 years, investment in ag. research,
extension, rural infrastructure, productive
social safety nets increased food system
resilience
Source: Webb and von Braun 1994
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• Civil conflict often increases food
prices and threatens food security
and nutrition
• Pathways to durable solutions
o Support risk-informed, shock-
responsive protection & early warning,
early action (EWEA) systems
o Build resilience in households
o Invest in strengthening livelihoods and
food security
o Foster inclusive and participatory
processes in access to & use of natural
resources
IFPRI research highlights
Addressing civil conflicts and food crises
Food price hikes and civil conflict in Nigeria, 2000-2013
Source: Breisinger, Ecker, and Tan 2015, FAO 2017
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• Partnerships and Opportunities to Strengthen and
Harmonize Actions for Nutrition in India (POSHAN)
o Spurring action on nutrition and bringing together stakeholders
o Reviewing nutrition policies and programs in India to compile
lessons learned
• Alive & Thrive – Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Vietnam
o Combatting child undernutrition through promotion of infant and
young child feeding practices
o Ethiopia:
‒ Increased early breastfeeding initiation by 13.7 percentage
points & exclusive breastfeeding by 9.4 percentage points
‒ Further improvement in children’s diets and complementary
feeding needed
IFPRI research highlights
Tackling undernutrition using an integrated approach
Source: Kim et al. 2016
Shenggen Fan, October 2017
IFPRI research highlights
Biofortification: advancing nutrition-driven ag. technologies
• Increasing nutrient density through plant breeding,
agronomic practices
• HarvestPlus:
o Working with more than 440 partners
o Nigeria: 1.3 million households benefiting, 800,000+ households
reached with Vit. A cassava
o Bangladesh: 360,000+ households benefiting from zinc rice
o India: 280,000+ households benefiting from biofortified crops
Biofortification Priority Index
Iron beans Vit. A
maize
Iron pearl
milletZinc
wheat
Vit. A
cassava
Vit. A orange
sweet potatoZinc rice
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
• Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Index (WEAI)
o Innovative tool composed of 2 sub-indices on empowerment and gender parity
o Developed WEAI for use in agricultural development projects (pro-WEAI) under
the Gender, Agriculture, and Assets Project (GAAP2)
• Improve access to inputs and credit
o Ghana: Women’s ability to make credit decisions significantly improved dietary
diversity for women and girls (Malapit and Quisumbing 2015)
• Provide agricultural training and information
o Bangladesh: Livelihood assistance and training increased
IFPRI research highlights
Closing the gender gap in agriculture
Picture source: Farming First and FAO 2014
Shenggen Fan, May 2018 Sources: Allen, de Braw, and Gelli 2016, Fan and Graziano da Silva 2017
• Agricultural value chains provide a framework to analyze different
dimensions of food systems
• Research on value chains can identify solutions to improve nutrition and
environment across stages from food production to consumption
Weak links in Nigeria’s rice value chain
• 60% of rice purchased in urban areas is imported due to consumer
concerns about locally produced rice
‒ Poor vertical integration leading to inconsistencies in quality, labelling, and taste
• Highly fragmented domestic value chain
• Lack of traceability along value chain prevents a link between
production and consumer preferences
IFPRI research highlights
Strengthening agri-food value chains
Shenggen Fan, May 2018
IFPRI research highlights
Modelling the global agri-food system
IMPACTAgricultural
supply/demand
IMPACT Global Hydrological
Model
IMPACT Water Simulation
Model
DSSAT Crop Models
Climate Forcing
Effective PPotential ET
IRW
Irrigation Water Demand & Supply
Crop Management
WATER STRESS
Pop & GDP growth
Area & yield growth
Food Projections• Crop area /
livestock numbers, yields, and production
• Agricultural commodity demand
• Agricultural commodity trade and prices
• Under-nourishment
• Risk of hunger
Water Projections• Water demand and supply for domestic,
industrial, livestock and irrigation users• Water supply reliability
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2017
IMPACT model examines alternative futures for global food
supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security
Shenggen Fan, May 2018 Sources: Hoddinott, Ahmed, et al. 2015, Berhane et al. 2014
• Bridging the gap between short-term relief and long-term development
goals
• Integration of multi-disciplinary studies to reach high equilibrium AND
benefit vulnerable communities
Social protection can secure basic livelihoods, protect from risk and vulnerability, and stimulate growth
• Promoting better-targeted, productive, cross-sectoral safety nets e.g.
• Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program:
Access to safety nets and ag. support improves food security
• Bangladesh’s Vulnerable Group Development Program:
Food security, nutrition interventions + income-generating activities
IFPRI research highlights
Building resilience
Shenggen Fan, October 2017
IFPRI engages at the country levelExample Country Strategy Support Programs
Ethiopia Bangladesh
Commodity Exchange
Food for Education
Strategy Support Program Agricultural Policy Support Unit
Productive Safety
Nets Programme
Women’s Empowerment
in Agric. Index Early adopter
Rebuilding after emergencies
Agricultural
Transformation Agency
Strategy Support Program
INSTITUTIONAL BUILDING
Strategy Support Program
Strengthening agricultural
markets and institutions
Supporting Evidence-based
Agriculture Policy
Malawi
Capacity strengthening