Workshop on the legal and institutional dimensions of adaptation and extreme event management, 24 November 2011
Adaptation frameworks for the Murray-Darling Basin
Dr Jamie Pittock, Crawford School of Economics and Government, ANU - [email protected]
Three elements:
1. Murray-Darling Basin is a key test case2. Exemplifies the dangers of:
– Mis-translating science into policy;– Overly focussing on ‘magic bullet’ adaptation
3. Need to adopt a suite of no regrets, different but complementary measures
2
Percentage change in average annual runoff ‘‘2050s’’ (2040–2069) compared with 1961–1990; A2 scenarios.
Source: Arnell, N. W. (2004). Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14 (2004) 31–52.
National policyNational Water Initiative (2004):• The risks of reductions in water allocations from climate
change to lie with water access entitlement holders • Water resource accounts must consider climate change• States and Territories in preparing water plans must
consider risks like climate and land use changesWater Act (2007, s22(1)):• Mandatory content of Basin Plan includes “The risks
dealt with must include the risks to the availability of Basin water resources that arise from the following: [...] (b) the effects of climate change”
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MDB climate and water scenarios
CSIRO scenario Average surface water availability in 2030
End of system flows in 2030
2006 “Risks to shared water resources:
-10 to -23% n/a
2008 extreme wet +7% +20%
2008 median -12% -37%
2008 extreme dry -24% -69%
(Actual, early 2010) (inflows -63%) (no outflows)
Murray-Darling Basin
Source: MDBC
Photos:
Encrusted tortoise. © S & C Grundy.
Children cleaning tortoises, Strathalbyn PS. © B. Gunn.
Average = 10,900 Gl pa
Recently = 4,000 Gl pa
FY08 = 2,220 Gl
Mechanisms for managing variability
MDBA proposes:1.Permanent allocation reductions2.Proportional annual entitlement reductions (variability)3.Basin Plan revision
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All undermined by incomplete markets
8Farm dam, ACT & plantation forest, VIC. © J Pittock
Intercepted water use “equates to almost one quarter of all the entitled water on issue in Australia” (NWC 2010).
Emergence of new risks, eg. thirsty carbon sequestration
(“carbon farming”) plantations, coal seam gas Climate change policies inducing more rapid change
MDBA interpretation of climate change
“While there is uncertainty associated with different predictions of the magnitude of climate change effects by 2030, there is general agreement that surface-water availability across the entire Basin is more likely to decline, with Basin-wide change of 10% less water predicted.”
(MDBA Guide to the Basin Plan, 2010:xxv).9
Permanent allocation reductions
• CSIRO said “median” scenario = -12% water• No more or less likely than the extreme “wet” or
“dry” scenarios• Government adopts median, as “most likely”?• MDBA “logic”: -12% (-10%) from 1990-2030- 6% from now (2012-2030)- 3% for 1st Plan period (2012-2021)
• Entitlement holders bear 3% now, Federal Government bears all subsequent reductions
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How much should be reallocated?Current and proposed environmental water reallocations Gl/yr %
Current (pre-“drought”) surface water diversions 11,146 100Reallocation to the environment recommended by Jones et al. (2003) for good ecological health of six icon sites
4,000 36
The Living Murray “first step” reallocation currently underway (2003-2010) 500 4Additional “average annual volume” in water entitlements purchased by the Federal Government for the environment in 2007-10 at $2.37 million/Gl
535 5
Potential water entitlement purchases from 2007 from the Federal Government’s $3.1 B allocation at $2.37 M/Gl
1,308 12
Reallocation to the Coorong, Lower Lakes and Murray Mouth recommended by Kingsford et al (2009)
700 6
Reallocation to the NSW red gum forests of the Murray, Murrumbidgee and Lachlan rivers recommended by NRC (2009)
1,200 11
Reallocation recommended by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists (2010)
MDBA Guide to the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan (Oct 2010)
4,400
3,000- 4,000
40
27-37
MDBA draft Murray-Darling Basin Plan (Nov 2011) (subject to five year review) 2,800 2511
Institutional resilience strategiesStrategies Positive attributes Negative attributesI. Resistance and
maintenancePurpose, stability, optimization of resources, low risk of mal-adaptation
Denial, resistance to change, ignorance, awaiting crisis before responding
II. Change at the margins Accepts change, uses manageable, incremental responses
May not cope with major shifts, address symptoms, poor long-term strategy
III. Openness and adaptability
Recognizes uncertainty and addressing underlying causes, rapid change
Inefficient frequent change, possible maladaptation.
Source: Dovers & Hezri 2010. DOI:10.1002/wcc.29 12
Sharing the losses – national policy2009 MDB Plan concept paper & 2004 National Water
Initiative (s.48) - future reductions in water entitlements due to climate change will be borne by:
• water entitlement holders for reductions due to climate change or “periodic natural events”;
• a government as the result of changes in that government’s policy; and
• water entitlement holders and governments if improvements in knowledge require reductions in water take to achieve environmentally sustainable levels.
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Sharing the losses – MDBA policy
MDBA Guide (2010, p. 109): “A principle of equitable sharing of any reduction in water availability between consumptive and environment uses has been adopted by the Authority” to manage climatic variability.
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Pope, Canberra Times
Annual entitlement reductions
• Water entitlements as a share of the available water
• However ‘rules- based water’ is subject to state government cuts
• Entitlements water with the CEHW (> Daniel Connell) 15
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Basin Plan revision
• Water Act requires revisions at least every ten years,
• Craig Knowle’s five year proposal, but
• Plan will not be implemented by states before 2019- 2024!
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HRSCoRA (Windsor Inquiry) report“This report shows that there is an alternative way to
achieve this without the pain many perceived would result from the Guide if it in fact became the Plan. [...] win-win solutions can be found to offset the reductions of a future Basin Plan and provide for the environment. From the very south to the top of the Basin, the Committee heard of water savings that could be found through environmental works and measures and on-farm efficiency works. [...] The Committee recommends that they be explored prior to considering any reduction in productive water allocation.”
(HRSCoRA 2011:x).17
Environmental works and measures“The Living Murray [...] ‘works + water’ – a combination that
is probably unprecedented at this scale anywhere in the world. Certainly no other program to date has taken on the challenge of engineering landscape-scale flooding of multiple Ramsar-listed sites ” (MDBA, 2011:56).
“The objective of the works and measures is to multiply the environmental benefits achievable from the water available to The Living Murray. [...] The water management structures being built at the floodplain sites are intended to enable controlled landscape-scale flooding using environmental water – often in much smaller volumes than would be required without these works” (MDBA, 2011:56).
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Environmental water demand management
“Interventions that sustain freshwater biodiversity but that apply volumetrically less water than would naturally be required, or by managing and mixing waters of differing qualities”
(Pittock & Lankford 2009).19
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Murray-Darling Basin
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Source: Pittock & Finlayson (2011)
The Living Murray EWM, 2003+
Site Area (ha) Channels Regulators Levees Pumps Fishways
Koondroo k ‐
Pericoota
16,000 3.6 km new
9? Yes ‐ ‐
Gunbower 7,250 Yes, new Yes
Hattah Lakes
6,000 Yes, creek 3 3 1
Chowilla 7,500 Yes Yes
River Murray
channel
14‐18
Total 36,75021
What is TLM EWM expected to deliver?
Site Frequency of overbank floods Area to be
inundated
(ha)
Area of the
whole site
(ha)
Portion
inundated
(%)
Naturally Without
worksWith works
Koondrook ‐
Perricoota25 in 100 <10 in 100 25‐33 in 100
16,000 50,000 46.5
Gunbower 7,250Hattah Lakes 20 in 100 <10 in 100 13 in 100 6,000 6,000 100.0Chowilla 45 in 100 12 in 100 33 in 100 7,500 37,700 19.9
Total 36,750 135,700 39.2
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Why are volumetric EWM too risky?
1. Use as an alternative to higher environmental flows (first not last resort)
2. Opportunity cost: $235 million buys ~99 GL/yr LTCE water (at $2.37 m/GL)
3. Application to limited areas4. High likelihood of institutional failure5. Further fragmentation of the ecosystem6. High risk of ecosystem degradation (e.g.
salinity, nutrient flows)23
Examples of environmental works
Source: MDBA24
What actually happened 2004-2010?Site Reported “trends in icon site health associated with
environmental watering 2004‐10”
(MDBA 2011).
Floodplain forest stand
condition (%) in “good”
condition ‘09.*
Koondrook
‐
Perricoota
Breeding of various water bird species and sea eaglesVegetation ‘markedly healthier’
in watered areas
Growth of giant rush at watered sites
10.8
Gunbower Resilience of wetlands in dry conditions after wateringSmall waterbird breeding event in 2009
Hattah
LakesDiverse and abundant aquatic vegetation communities 3.1
Chowilla Vegetation species diversity increased with wetting and
dryingUnderstory vegetation improvedIncreasing numbers of southern bell frogsCondition of floodplain forest trees improved with
watering
21.4
25* Cunningham et al. 2009
Balkanizing the ecosystem
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What does $235 million to inundate 36,750 ha buy?
Restored billabong, River Murray, Wentworth, Murray Wetlands Working Group, Sept 2009.(C) J Pittock
Psyche Bend, River Murray, Mildura, Sept 2009.(C) J Pittock
Basin wetlandsArea (ha) %
inundated by TLM
Icon sites with EWM135,700 39.2
Ramsar wetlands
(16)
636,592 5.8
All wetlands
5,700,000 0.6
Do EWM breach environmental laws?• Australia is obliged to
“maintain the ecological character” of Ramsar wetlands
• Water Act 2007 based in part on faithful implementation of the Convention
• EWM will inundate <40% of four targeted site
• Other areas are passively abandoned or actively desiccated by these works 27
Murrumbidgeee, River, NSW. Photo © J Pittock, 2009
A broader adaptation approach
28Adapted from Pittock & Finlayson (2011)
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Other conservation priorities: free-flowing waters
Ovens, River, VIC. Photo © J Pittock, 2008 Source: CSIRO (2008) 'Water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin. A report from CSIRO to the Australian Government.' CSIRO, Canberra.
Non-volumetric environmental works and measures: Reoperation of regulated rivers
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Weirs in NSW.Source: NSW Dept Industry and Innovation
Thermal pollution in NSW.Source: NSW Dept Industry and Innovation
Thermal pollution control
Use infrastructure for:• Thermal pollution
control• Environmental flows?
Murray cod © S Behera
Water temperature and native fish breeding Burrinjuck Dam, NSW. Source: NSW Fisheries
Infrastructure change: NSW weir review
Weirs Number %Licensed 3,328Inspected by 2001, and recommended:
822 100
- Removal 81 10- Add fish ways 130 16- Better management 59 7- Non-existent 149 18- No action required 403 49
Source: NSW Department of Primary Industries (2001)
Conclusions
1. Major ‘no and low regrets’ changes to water management for climate change adaptation is justified now
2. The MDB exemplifies the dangers of:– Mis-translating science into policy;– Overly focussing on ‘magic bullet’ adaptation
(environmental flows and “works and measures”)
3. Need to adopt a suite of different but complementary measures
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Key references:• Pittock, J., Finlayson, C. M., Gardner, A.
and McKay, C., 2010. Changing character: the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and climate change in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, Environmental and Planning Law Journal, 27(6): 401-425.
• Pittock, J. and Finlayson, C. M., 2011. Australia's Murray-Darling Basin: freshwater ecosystem conservation options in an era of climate change, Marine and Freshwater Research, 62: 232–243.
• Pittock, J. and Finlayson, C. M., 2011. Freshwater ecosystem conservation in the Basin: principles versus policy, In Basin futures: Water reform in the Murray-Darling Basin(Eds, Grafton, Q. and Connell, D.) ANU E-press, Canberra, pp. 39-58. http://epress.anu.edu.au/basin_futures_cit ation.html 34
Pope, Canberra Times