© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
Future funding scenarios for the NHS and social care in England
Adam Roberts Research Analyst www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge
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Background
• This presentation: • Previous trends in health care spending • Scenarios for health care funding • Scenarios for social care funding • Combined affect on other areas of public spending
• Also covered in the report: • Assumptions • International comparisons
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History of UK NHS spending
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Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)
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Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)
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Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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Conclusions
• From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50
years • Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough • Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade • Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax
increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels • Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports) • Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid
growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to provide high-quality services
© Nuffield Trust 4 July 2012
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