ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Jürgen P. Kropp/Vera TekkenPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research
Overview
• Introduction PIK• Climat du 20ieme siecle• Threats for Northern Morocco: What do we expect for
the 21st century• Importance of the vulnerability concept• Conclusion and Visions
Défi de concilier les activités humaines, le climat et le changement climatique
dans la région de Berkane/Nador
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
A few words about PIKA few words about PIK
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Geo-Research Centre
Potsdam Institute forPotsdam Institute forClimate Impact ResearchClimate Impact Research
Einstein-Tower
Great Refractor
Helmert TowerMichelson-Building
Süring-Building
LibraryMax Planck Institute
for Astrophysics
Alfred Wegner Centre forPolar Research
Potsdam Telegraphenberg
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Research Area 1: Earth system analysis
Research Area 2:Climate Impact & Vulnerability
Research Area 3:Sustainable Solutions
Research Area 4:Transdisziplinary Concepts & Methods
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Policy advice on all levels.....Policy advice on all levels.....
Advice for German Chancellor A. Merkel
Conference of the G8+5 environmental ministers at PIK
British-German Climate Conference in Berlin, opened by the British Queen
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
What implies Climate Change?What implies Climate Change?• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning of the Earth System• Much more than climate change• Socio-economic as well as biophysical
For example, changes in:
Reid
& M
iller
(1989)
NOAA
U.S
. Bu
rea
u o
f the
Ce
ns
us
Ma
ck
en
zie e
t al
(20
02
)
Ric
ha
rds
(19
91
), WR
I (1
99
0)
FAO
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Learn from earth‘s history: atmospheric COLearn from earth‘s history: atmospheric CO22 concentration concentration
Epica ice cores 2004
CO2 concentration/temperature for the last „700.000 years“ (orbital, solar forcing)CO2 average for glacials: 185 ppmCO2 average for interglacials: 280 ppmToday 383ppm (CO2 equiv. 400ppm) > 35% higher than the value for interglacials and the highest since 700 kyrs!)
+350 Kyrs.
*We are here!
EemEem HoloceneHolocene
WeichselianWeichselian
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
What have we observed duringWhat have we observed duringthe 20th century?the 20th century?
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
[mm]
Difference Annual Sum Preciptation: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000Difference Annual Sum Preciptation: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000
minus 10 – 100 mm: Al Hoceima/Nador/Berkaneup to 50 mm plus south of the Atlas mountains
up to 0-50 mm plus central north (Meknes/Fes)
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
More detailed proneness: % years with precipitation < 400 mm (1981-1998)More detailed proneness: % years with precipitation < 400 mm (1981-1998)
More details Vera‘s talk!
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
[°C]
Difference Air Temperature: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000Difference Air Temperature: 1901/1930 vs. 1971/2000
0.6 – 1.0 °C in Morocco
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
The Complex Climate SystemThe Complex Climate System
Obviously quite well understood (climate & weather), but what remains uncertain?
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
A2: heterogeneous world, economic growth local oriented, welfare gap remains, population growth up to ~15 bn, 2100 (worst case)
It‘s the anthropogenic forcing, but we are already on the It‘s the anthropogenic forcing, but we are already on the way to the future.........way to the future.........
B1: rapid introduction of resource-efficient technologies, north-south equity, focus on global solutions, stable population ~7 bn, 2100 (sustainable)
IPCC 2007
Stabilization: < 450ppm Stabilization: < 450ppm Emission reduction: > 50%Emission reduction: > 50%
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
emissions Forcingscenario
Temperature change (°K ) Sea level rise(m)
best estimate variance
low B1 1.8 1.1 – 2.9 0.18 – 0.38
A1T 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.45
B2 2.4 1.4 – 3.8 0.20 – 0.43
A1B 2.8 1.7 – 4.4 0.21 – 0.48
A2 3.4 2.0 – 5.4 0.23 – 0.51
high A1Fl 4.0 2.4 – 6.4 0.26 – 0.59
IPCC 2007, WGI
Summary of the IPCC scenariosSummary of the IPCC scenarios
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What can we anticipate for the 21st century?What can we anticipate for the 21st century?
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
precipitation annuelle (A2)precipitation annuelle (A2)What different models say!What different models say!
CGCM2 HadCM3 PCM
Green:Green: unchangedRed:Red: dryerBlue:Blue: wetter
High model coincidence!Average decrease of >150mm by 2100 is very likely!
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Seasonal changes: precipitation (A2/HadCM3)Seasonal changes: precipitation (A2/HadCM3)difference 2000 vs. 2100difference 2000 vs. 2100
blue: wetter in 2100red: dryer in 2100Green: unchanged
winter
decrease: 50 - 150 mm
spring
[+60, -70] mm
fall
[+50, -80] mm
Summer: overall decrease
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Temperature change (A2/HadCM3)Temperature change (A2/HadCM3)difference 2000 vs. 2100difference 2000 vs. 2100
Seasonal:Summer: +[4, 7] °CWinter: +[2.5, 4] °C
hotter
unch.
+[3.5, 6] °C
Diffenbaugh et al. 2007Alexander et al. 2006
Obs. 6d period/top10% Tmax
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Identifying vulnerable sectors and Identifying vulnerable sectors and regionsregions
Precondition for the development of Precondition for the development of management/steering alternatives!management/steering alternatives!
The Endeavour for Morocco, i.e. Nador/Berkane
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
CLIMATE CHANGEHuman
Interference
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
IESInitial Impacts
Effects
Responses
Residual orNet Impacts
IMP
AC
TS
PolicyPolicyResponsesResponses
dangerous? vulnerable?
MITIGATIONMITIGATION(global)(global)
PlannedPlannedADAPTATIONADAPTATION
(local)(local)
- Stocktaking- Stocktaking- Reduction- Reduction
VU
LN
ER
AB
ILIT
IES
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Vulnerability ConceptVulnerability Concept
Vulnerability: The degree to which a „system“ is susceptible to adverse effects of climate change impacts. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed (exposed system), its sensitivity (degree of interference), and its adaptive capacity (capability to adjust).
Since climate change impacts may cause serious consequences in Since climate change impacts may cause serious consequences in several sectors it can reduce societies‘ ability to respond! Thus several sectors it can reduce societies‘ ability to respond! Thus vulnerability is a concept allowing to identify hot-spots of action and is onevulnerability is a concept allowing to identify hot-spots of action and is one
precondition for adaptation!precondition for adaptation!
Example: Vulnerabilty of North-Rhine WestphaliaExample: Vulnerabilty of North-Rhine Westphaliaagainst weather extremesagainst weather extremes
396 counties, area: 34070 km2 (9.5% of total)18 Mio. inhabitants (22.5% of total), 22% of total GDP
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Sectoral vulnerability NRW (>24 indicators, 1998)Sectoral vulnerability NRW (>24 indicators, 1998)
Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change
heatwaves heatwaves (population density, (population density, amount of elderly people)amount of elderly people)
local employment market local employment market (seasonal unemployment)(seasonal unemployment)
forest sectorforest sector(tree type composition,(tree type composition,hill slope)hill slope)
Cyclone Kyrill 2007
loss of19 Mio. m3 wood
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Social Vulnerability: Climate Related DisastersSocial Vulnerability: Climate Related Disasters
Data: www.em-dat.net
Drought
Extreme Temperature
Flood
Wave / Surge
Slides
Wild Fires
Climate sensitivity= + 60,000 per 1°C per Mio. people
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Are the Morrocan coasts threatened?Are the Morrocan coasts threatened?
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Threat of Sea Level Rise Threat of Sea Level Rise
...we are not in an equilibrium, onlonger time scales (e.g. 2300, 3ºC): will be much higher: 2.5-5.1m (WBGU 2006)
after Archer 2006
observations considered in AR41900-2000: 1-2 mm/yr --1961-2003: 1.8 mm/yr 1.2 mm/yr1993-2003: 3.1mm/yr 2.6 mm/yr
Divergence: observations/considerations
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Coastal VulnerabilityCoastal VulnerabilityRisks & Costs of Sea Level RiseRisks & Costs of Sea Level Rise
DINAS Coast 2004
0,000,100,200,300,400,50
0,600,700,800,901,00
Sea
leve
l ris
e (1
992,
m)
Sustainable track: B1
Current track: A2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Avg
. P
rote
ctio
n Le
vel (
yrs) Normative: 100yrs
Normative: 75yrs
BAU: B1
BAU: A2
Coastal Protection Targets
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Main Assumptions & CalculationsMain Assumptions & Calculations
Normative Protection Level: 100 u. 75yr return levelComparison: with business as usual (BAU: leave all as it is!)Failure mode: overtop breach modeMigration allowed: yesSimulation time: 5yrs, time spam 2000-2100Input forcing scenarios: A2 and B1
Cost calculation for the coast of Morocco:
i i
plmig
pldamageres
i
plTAC
i i
nonemig
nonedamageres
i
noneTACi CCCCCCC 100
.100
.100
..
Costs without adaptation Costs with protection target
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Cost Calculations: BAU vs. Protection TargetCost Calculations: BAU vs. Protection Target
Losses
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mio
. U
S$
A2 worst
until 2060
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mio
. US
$
B1 best
until 2035
Kick-off investments for 100yr protection target
Overall: Benefits!
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Horizontal 90mVertikal 1 m
DTM DTM Nador/BerkaneNador/Berkane
Sea LevelRise: riskprone areasbelow 1m
Wind pressure/directionwill cause additional Threats, e.g. wave tide!
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Risk pronearea below 1m
vertical 1mhorizontal 90m
Digital Terrain Model Marsa Digital Terrain Model Marsa Ben Mehdi/SaidiaBen Mehdi/Saidia
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
vertical 1mhorizontal 90m
DTM Lagoon of DTM Lagoon of NadorNador
Risk pronearea below 1m
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Mandatory for MoroccoMandatory for Morocco
Marocco will face threats, i.e. learn to manage the unavoidable, cope with SLR, water scarcity, etc...., but avoidunmanageable situations!
Increased social and biophysical vulnerability; i.e. seek for alternatives in employment, agriculture, tourism...
(One) Vision: use Moroccos natural resource: solar power! • as basis for development• for sea-water desalinisation• energy supplier for Europe• benefit from joint implement.
ACCMA Kick-off: Nador/MoroccoJuly 9th, 2007 [email protected]
Panoramic Analysis of Problems
Scientific AdvisoryBoard to the Governmentcan help to meet thetranssectoral challenges!
Thank you for yourattention!