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A Friction of bits Un attrito di bit
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.ukca-global.biz
The bandwid th and connec t i v i t y c r i s i s La crisi larghezza di banda e connettività
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What we know for sure Quello che sappiamo
M u n i c h 2 0 1 2 F T T H O p e n a x nota fondamentaled i spon i b i l e s u you tube
FTTHNo tech problemsNo economic problemsBandwidth demands growing All sector needs more bandwidthHealthcare demands more mobileMore mobile demands more optical fibre
FTTHNessun problema tecnologicoNessun problema economicoEsigenze di larghezza di banda crescenteTutto il settore ha bisogno di più larghezza di bandaSanità richiede più mobilePiù richieste di telefonia mobile più fibre ottiche
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The world is not slowing down ! Il mondo non sta rallentando !
What we know for sure Quello che sappiamo
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2000 - 2015 T r a f f i c T r a f f i c o
Exponential growth of IP traffic shows no sign of slowing
La crescita esponenziale del traffico IP non mostra alcun segno di rallentamento
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2000 - 2015 T r a f f i c T r a f f i c o
Exponential growth of IP traffic shows no sign of slowing
La crescita esponenziale del traffico IP non mostra alcun segno di rallentamento Voice
Data
Mobile Communication PB/(Month-Mese)
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2012 - 2015 T e l c o s
Ignoring customer demandSticking with old technologiesSustained by their old modelsDestined for a long slow death
Ignorando la domanda dei clientiAttaccando con vecchie tecnologieSostenuti dai loro vecchi modelliDestinato per lungo morte lenta
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2012 - 2015 T e l c o s
Sti l l chasing their asymmetr ic ser vice fet ishAncora a caccia di loro feticcio servizio asimmetriche
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2012 - 2015 T e l c o s
Choosing to ignore reduced: OPEX CAPEX Staffing Truck Rolls Fault Rates Building Stock Future Proofing Energy Consumption
La scelta di ignorare ridotta: OPEX
CAPEX Staffing
Rolls Truck Fault Tariffe
costruzione Stock Future Proofing
Consumo Energetico
No to FTTH / FTTP
we love copper
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2012 - 2015 T e l c o s
Still chanting their mantra: No proven demandNo proven business caseOptical fibre does not cost in
Sleepwalking towards an almost certain future of failure Sonnambulismo verso un quasi certo futuro di fallimento
Ancora canto loro mantra:Nessuna richiesta provataNessun caso provato di affariFibra ottica non costa in
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2012 - 2015 A d v a n c e A n t i c i p o
More self help and community FTTH projects than ever before
Più di auto-aiuto e la comunità FTTH progetti che mai
Lancashire UK 850km Optical Fibre 1Gbit/s
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2012 - 2015 A d v a n c e A n t i c i p o
More new companies challenging the Telco dominance and offering FTTH
Più nuove imprese che sfidano il dominio Telco e offrendo FTTH
UK FTTH Start Up installing1Gbit/s UK avviare l'installazione di FTTH
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2012 - 2015 Network F T T H P r o g r e s s
Glacial Glaciale
We a re f a c i n g a b a n d w i d t h a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y c r i s i sSiamo di fronte ad una crisi di larghezza di banda e connettività
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We a re f a c i n g a b a n d w i d t h a n d c o n n e c t i v i t y c r i s i sSiamo di fronte ad una crisi di larghezza di banda e connettività
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Economic Friction Attrito Economica
Old ModelsOld industryOld ThinkingOld Technology
Vecchi modelliVecchi industriaVecchio ThinkingVecchio Tecnologia
21C Economy demands 21C Tech 21C Economy richiede 21C Tech
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I f a t o m s c a n n o t m o v e Se gli atomi non può muoversi
The economy suffersL'economia soffre
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I f B i t s a n d B y t e s c a n n o t m o v e Se Bit e Byte non possono muoversi
The economy suffersL'economia soffre
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Economics obey the fundamental laws of thermodynamics too!Economia obbediscono alle leggi della termodinamica troppo!
This i s not rocket sc ience Ques ta non è una s c i enza
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The economy suffersL'economia soffre
I f p e o p l e c a n n o t c o n n e c t Se le persone non riescono a collegars
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W h o c a r r i e s w h a t ? Chi porta che cosa ?
3, 4G
WiFi
Fixed L ineFissoLinea
~45%~40%
~5%
A c ro s s m u c h o f t h e f i r s t w o r l d I n g r a n p a r t e d e l p r i m o m o n d o
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They cannot deliver what they promisedImposs ib i le che la loro promessa
S o w h a t o f 3 , 4 , 5 G ? Allora, cosa di 3 , 4 , 5G ?
You cannot defeat the laws of physicsMore towers (5 - 10x) are unacceptableUniversal coverage needs something new
Non è possibile sconfiggere le leggi della fisicaAltre torri ( 5 - 10x) sono inaccettabiliCopertura universale ha bisogno di qualcosa di nuovo
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And for the planet ? E p e r i l p i a n e t a ?
> 99% of all traffic transported by optical fibre > 99 % di tutto il traffico trasportato da fibra ottica
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What's N e x t ?
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Thousands of clouds and billions of thingsMig l ia ia d i nuvole e mi l iard i d i cose
C l o u d s o f T h i n g s N u v o l e d i c o s e
E s t i m a t e s v a r y S t i m e v a r i a n o ~ 5 0 - 2 5 0 B n
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There will be more communication between
things off line than online!
Ci sarà più la comunicazione tra le cose off l ine che on-
l ine !
P r e d i c t i o n P r e d i z i o n e 1
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P r e d i c t i o n P r e d i z i o n e 2
Everything will want to communicate, but not
everything will need to be on line!
Tut to sarà vo ler comunicare , ma non tut to avrà b i sogno d i essere on
l ine !
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P r e d i c t i o n P r e d i z i o n e 3
Mobile operators will not be significant players
Operator i d i te le fon ia mobi le non saranno at tor i s ign i f i cat i v i
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P r e d i c t i o n P r e d i z i o n e 4
There will be 1000s of Clouds
C i saranno 1000s d i nuvo le
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The Internet will not scale to satisfy projected growth of connectivity and capacity:
Telegraph ∝ NTelephone ∝ N2
Internet ∝ 2N
Cloud ∝ N1/2
~5Bn people ~ 10% Global Energy
>50Bn things ~ 1000% Global Energy
Networks Without Infrastructure ∝ N ???
But there i s much more to Clouds M a c ' è m o l t o d i p i ù d i n u v o l e i
Internet non scalerà a soddisfare la crescita prevista di connettività e capacità di :
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The Cloud(s)
Plural not singular because the internet won’t scale!Plurale non singolare perché internet non scala !
P e r m a n e n t Tr a n s i e n t
M o b i l eOpenClosedVisible
InvisibleP e r s o n a l
C o m m e r c i a lG o v e r n m e n t
Lo
cal
, G
lob
al
Pe
op
le, T
hin
gs
Ve
hic
les,
Ho
me
Off
ice
. C
amp
us
To
wn
, C
ity
Re
gio
n,
Co
un
try
Ze
ro I n
f r a s t r uc
t ure
Ne
t s
An
on
ym
i t y W
or k
i ng
Em
be
dd
ed
Se
cu
r i t y
Au
to- Im
mu
ne
Sy
s t em
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T h i n g s t o c o m e C o s e a v e n i r e Beyond more of the same but
bigger, and curved…
Oltre p iù de l lo s tesso ma p iù grande , e cur v i…
…faster and more powerful…
…più ve loce e potente…
…mobile and smaller…
…mobi le e p iù p icco lo .
& sexy!
e sexy!
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A spectrophotometer for $100Uno spettrofotometro per $ 100
A l a b a r a t o r y i n y o u r p o c k e t U n l a b o r a t o r i o i n t a s c a
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S c i e n c e f i c t i o n c o m e t r u e ? F a n t a s c i e n z a d i v e n t a r e a l t à ?
S e n s o r s f o r a l lSensor i per tutt i
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O n s a l e s o o n ! I n v e n d i t a p r o s s i m a m e n t e ?
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S e n s o r t e c h n o l o g i e s a v a i l a b l e t o a l l …
DIY care devices C u r a f a i d a t e
Ve r y l ow c o s t a n d c l o u d b a s e dMolto basso costo e c loud based
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Monitor ing the in - out e f fect C o n t r o l l o e f f e t t o p a r t e n z a
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Cloud based apps Applicazioni cloud
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T h e r e i s a n A p p f o r t h a t C'è un'applicazione per questo
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A I o v e r t a k e s h u m a n s AI supera g l i esser i umani
1997 Deep Blue Defeats Grand Mastersconfigge Gran Maestro
2011 US TV General knowledge champion campione conoscenza US TV Generale
2012 US medical knowledge championUS campione conoscenze mediche
2013 US medical trials commenced studi clinici degli Stati Uniti iniziata
2014 APIs made publicAPI rese pubbliche
2015 App open to start up companiesApp aperto per avviare aziende
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A I g o e s r e a l t i m e AI va in tempo rea le
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B e y o n d 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . . G a n d W i F i + + +A l d i l à d i 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . . G e W i F i + + +
Direct device to device,thing to thing, commsat will - free of costor control…willpower the ‘Cloudof Things’ and people
Dispositivo diretto al dispositivo, e cosa a cosa,comunicazione a sarà - gratuitamente o il controllo ... volontà alimentare il 'Clouddelle cose ' e dei popoli .. .
Hypothes i s I p o t e s i
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D e v i c e t o d e v i c eDispositivo di dispositivo
Meetings and file sharing +++Incontro e condivisione di file +++
Container to Ship
Ultra SecureUltra Sicuro
Data Transport = The Pocket !Il trasporto dei dati = tasca!
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People to peop le Persone a persone
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Augmented Rea l i t y V iew ing Visualizzazione resality aumentata
C a m e r a s c o v e r i n g e v e r y a n g l eTe l e c a m e r e c h e c o p r o n o o g n i a n g o l o
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Topping up atoms and bitsTopping up atoms and bits
Service Info, Maps, Local Data,Music, Movies, Games,Advertising ++
Service Info, mappe, dati locale, Musica, film, giochi, Pubblicità ++
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3,4,5G nets cannot support the demands of future traffic and logistic networks… but vehicle to vehicle systems can…by providing the most efficient and relevant linking of users reporting their status and sharing local/pertinent information
Vehicle to vehicle Veicolo a veicolo
3,4,5G non può sostenere le richieste ditraffico futuro e reti logistiche ...ma veicolo a veicolo sistemi possono ... fornendo il più efficiente e pertinente collegamento di utenti di reporting loro statuse la condivisione / informazioni pertinenti locali
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Conta iner to conta iner Contenitore per contenitore
Ship to shore Nave a terra
C
ontaine
r to sh
ip
Contentito
re per
la sped
izione
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Camion di 3/4GTr u c k t o t r u c k s t a t i c o r o n t h e m o ve …
Camion di camion statica o in movimento ...
Truck Fill / Camion Riempire: UK ~ 17% EU ~ 20%
US ~ 22% Estimated Global Logistic Losses ~ $3Tn Stima perdite Global Logistic ~ $ 3Tn
Conta iner to conta iner Contenitore per contenitore
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More Tech to come Più tech a venire
5 0 % o f u s e r s g i v e u p w i t h i n 2 w e e k s50% degli utenti si arrende entro 2 settimane
A technology from > 20 years ago…Una t e cno log i a d a> 20 ann i f a . . .
A l l the winners wi l l networkTutti i vincitori saranno in rete
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W A R
G A M I N G
A r t i f i c i a l
I n
t e l l i g e n c e Modellin
gCo
m
puter
M at e r i al
S c i en c e
Clouds
B I G
D A TA
BYOD
BMOB
DIY IT
Sensors
Robots
C y b e r
Security
Nano
Bio
Connected drivers of change acting in unison ! Conducenti Connected di cambiamento agire all'unisono!
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BYODBMOBOPENAPPSSocial
MobilityBIGData
Speedof
Change
Velocità di Cambiamento
EcologicalHumanitarian
Demands
EcologicoUmanitarioRichieste
NewTechnology
EntriesCompetition
NuovoTecnologia
EntriesCompetitio
nnitarianRichieste
Adaptabilityand
Flexibility
Adattabilità e Flexibiliyu
Growing
Global MarketThreat
Crescente Minaccia Mercato Bglobale
The rise of the connected L' a s c e s a d e l c o l l e g a t o
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The future is personal and not corporate I l f u t u ro è p e r s o n a l e e n o n a z i e n d a l e
had before
anything we have
More empowering than Più quella che abilita
anuything avevamo
prima
Larghezza di banda e connettività sono ora essenziali di lavoro e di vita moderna
Bandwidth and connectivity are now essentials of modern work and living
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To cut a l l the wires and be tru ly mobi le…Per tagliare tutti i fili e di essere veramente mobile…
We will need more FTTH/FTTP with open WiFi + 3,4,5G
Avremo bisogno di più FTTH/FTTP con aperto WiFi +
3/4/5G