![Page 1: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005
P. S. Market, C. J. Melick, B. P. Pettegrew,A. E. Becker, and L. L. Smith
Department of Soil, Environmental and Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Missouri-Columbia
Presented at the Winter Weather Workshop National Weather Service Office, Pleasant Hill, MO
29 October 2007
![Page 2: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
With the aid of…
• John Stoppkotte, SOO
North Platte, Nebraska, NWS
• UMC students enrolled in
ATMS-4720, Synoptic Meteorology II
• The National Science Foundation
![Page 3: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Introduction
• Analysis of occluded cyclone– Well-developed trowal structure
• Multiple bands of precipitation
• Blizzard conditions for an extended period in LBF CWA
• Lightning activity present but limited
gusts(mph)
snow(in.)
Courtesy, NOAA/NWS LBF
![Page 4: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Purpose
• Assess the nature of the unique trowal structure– Influence on banded precip?
• Assess lightning observations– Are they valid?
• Assess the production of extreme winds
gusts(mph)
snow(in.)
Courtesy, NOAA/NWS LBF
![Page 5: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
- Synopsis -
![Page 6: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28
![Page 7: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28
![Page 8: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 925 mb
![Page 9: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 850 mb
![Page 10: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 700 mb
![Page 11: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 500 mb
![Page 12: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – 300 mb
![Page 13: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
12Z 2005 Nov 28 – RADAR
![Page 14: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Storm total snow (in.) , 27-30 Nov 2005
![Page 15: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
- Event Specifics -
![Page 16: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – Surface Obs
• KAUH 1310Z +SN LTG DSNT SW– With NLDN flash near this time
• KVTN 1622Z, 1652Z, 2008Z, 2032Z, 2052Z, 2109Z TSSN
– KAUH – Aurora, NE– KVTN – Valentine, NE
![Page 17: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – NE Sfc Stations
![Page 18: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 1300Z
• Initial development of lightning and thunder
• Reported in Aurora, NE, METAR
• Corroborated by NLDN
![Page 19: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 13Z RUC20 – AUH Sounding
![Page 20: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 2100Z
• Redevelopment of lightning and thunder
• Emergence of trowal feature– And a unique double trowal signature
• Evolution of meso- circulations
• Significant banded precipitation underway
![Page 21: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 19Z RUC20 –VTN Sounding
![Page 22: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 21Z VIS Sat
![Page 23: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 21Z IR Sat
![Page 24: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 21Z WV Sat
![Page 25: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 21Z Sounder CTP
![Page 26: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – 21Z RADAR
![Page 27: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – IR Loop 13Z-23Z
![Page 28: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
2005 Nov 28 – RADAR Loop 18Z-23Z
![Page 29: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
- Trowal Structure -
![Page 30: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Various Model Solutions for trowal21Z Nov 28 2005 – 308 K e
![Page 31: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Cross Section through Double trowal2100V009 Nov 28 2005 – NAM 212 Trowal Surface
![Page 32: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Cross Section through Double trowal21Z Nov 28 2005 – NAM 212 Grid Cross Section
![Page 33: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
WRF 12-km SolutionsValid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity (Shaded & contoured)
![Page 34: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
WRF 12-km SolutionsValid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity (shaded) with θe
![Page 35: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
WRF 12-km SolutionsValid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions θe - Full Physics (green) / No microphysics (brown)
![Page 36: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
WRF 12-km SolutionsValid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions θe (white contours)
![Page 37: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
WRF 12-km SolutionsValid 21Z Nov 28 2005 – 21 hr Solutions Reflectivity with ω
![Page 38: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Conclusions
• AUH - 13Z - One NLDN CG flash establishes a history of electrical activity
• VTN - 16Z, 20Z, 21Z – METARS report TSSN based upon surface sensor– Valid, to the best of our knowledge
• Also, soundings support existence of lightning
![Page 39: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Conclusions
• Existence of double trowal appears valid– Reason(s) for creation of the structure are
unclear– Structure seems to have some bearing on
banded precipitation development and/or evolution
• The trowal aspect of this cyclone warrants further study
![Page 40: A CASE STUDY OF THE GREAT PLAINS BLIZZARD OF 27-28 NOVEMBER 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062717/56812a71550346895d8df569/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Thank you!
Questions?Comments?
ROCS Homepage : http://weather.missouri.edu/ROCS/