Download - 21st Century Communities
12/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 1
Developing Communities for the 21st Century
By: Frank X. SowaChairman/CEOTHE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.
Presented to the Professional Forum of The World Future Society, Washington DC -- July 2006Originally-presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004
22/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 2
Development of the U.S. 1600’s -- 1932
• Pre-Independence -- Rugged Individualism to support survival
• 1776-1876 -- Westering -- Speculation -- uncontrolled laissez faire -- farm and plantation-estate focused
• 1877-1932 -- Mechanical Age -- Railroad towns -- Mill and Company focused
32/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 3
Development in the U.S.1933 -- 1999
• 1933-1958 -- Industrial Age -- Transportation towns -- Suburbia -- City Center/Town Square -- multinational corporation focused
• 1959-1979 -- Urban Age -- Airport towns -- Urban project sprawl -- strip and retail malls -- brick and mortar on greenspace -- service economy focused
• 1980-2000 -- Information Age -- Silicon towns -- High technology/computers/internet -- education , quality-of-life focused
42/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 4
Development in the U.S. In the first part of the 21st
Century• 2000-2007 -- Multinational Age --
International towns -- broadband communication/collaboration linkages -- electronic multinational infrastructure economy focused
• 2008-2023 -- Knowledge Age -- knowledge-core focused towns (education, science and research-oriented) -- complexity matrix linkages -- biological and cellular-electronic collaboration economy
52/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 5
Worn-out methods
• Abdicating power to a “Planning Commission” or an “authority” (local, state, or federal) with old codes and laws to enforce bureaucratically
• Public-Private development and alliances -- big league sports alliances
• Brick and mortar development -- reclaiming brownfields, developing greenfields
• High-Tech Service Centers• Enhancing quality of life -- education• Job creation quick-fix schemes
62/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 6
Making the Transition• OLD WAY -- Control Development with
laws and planning -- maintain the code• MODERN WAY -- Collaborate on
Development -- Public-Private Alliances• 21st CENTURY WAY -- Internationalize
Alliances -- Tax with Incentives• KNOWLEDGE AGE WAY -- Collaborate
free of time-space restraints -- use knowledge and focus on keeping knowledge workers for competitive advantage
72/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 7
The Transition• Doomed to Failure if …– 1.Focus is on laws, codes, old planning– 2. Focus is on survival or benchmarking– 3. Focus is on urban development
projects– 4. Focus is on brick and mortar– 5. Focus is on brownfields and/or green
space– 6. Focus is on today’s technology
82/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 8
Successful Transitions• Will succeed if …
– 1. Control and develop the “chess board” -- not control the “players” or try to go on a “buffalo hunt” and choose the winning “economic pieces.”
– 2. “Chess board” consists of proper infrastructure, providing captivating and meaningful taxation, flexible laws, excellent “knowledge-core” in place or being put in place, and keeping knowledge pieces.
92/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 9
Making the Transition
• Refocus from 90% to 18%:– Rugged individualism (lack of development
plan)– Uncontrolled laissez faire– City center/town square– Urban projects -- development parks– Brick and mortar on brownfields and/or
greenspace– High-Tech Service Centers– Quality of Life-Education
10
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 10
Making the Transition• Place your focus to 70-90% on:
– Developing broadband communication/collaboration capability
– Internationalize - cosmopolitanize– Drive networking linkages– Develop knowledge-cores
• Focus on education, science, healthcare, research, complexity management services
11
2/27/04© Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All
rights reserved. 11
Focus of Today’s Talk:Developing for the 21st
CenturyEnhancing Communities to take advantage of the Multinational
and Knowledge EconomiesChanging to 21st Century Alliances -- Incentives
Creating a knowledge core and using knowledge for competitive advantage
12
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 12
Head MouseHead Mouse
Areas of a Knowledge Economy
AgricultureAgriculture ConstructionConstructionEnergy and PowerEnergy and Power
BiotechnologyBiotechnology
Information and CommunicationsInformation and Communications
MedicalMedical TransportationTransportation
Manufacturing and RoboticsManufacturing and Robotics
Space and RocketrySpace and Rocketry
13
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 13
Which paradigm are you at today?Which paradigm are you at today?• Agricultural -- Hands-based Technology (to 1958)
• Industrial -- Machine-based Technology (to 1979)
• Electronic -- Electrical-based Technology (to 1984)
• Broadcast -- Transistors, Integrated Circuits, Satellites, Desktop Computers (to 1991)
• Informational -- Data-Based Networks (to 1995)
• Narrowcast -- World Wide Web, Downcasting, text, images, Internet-based Technologies (to 1998)
• Collaborative -- Integrated-Communications via Internet and Net tools with full multimedia (through 2011)
• Bio-Melding -- the Next Paradigm (through 2015)
14
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 14
Computer
The 90’s and BeyondThe 90’s and Beyond
New Media of the Information AgeNew Media of the Information Age
High BandwidthHigh BandwidthNarrowcastingNarrowcastingDigital SignalDigital SignalAsynchronousAsynchronousCommodity PricedCommodity PricedCost-Free NetworkCost-Free NetworkGlobal AccessGlobal AccessLocal ImpactLocal Impact
Optimized Data Optimized Data TransferTransferDistributed Data Distributed Data Storage in NetworkStorage in NetworkHighest-Value Highest-Value InformationInformationLowest-Cost Lowest-Cost DistributionDistribution
ENHANCEDENHANCEDCOMMUNICATION-BASED MODELCOMMUNICATION-BASED MODEL
Integrated NetworksIntegrated NetworksParallel andParallel andDistributed ComputingDistributed Computing
Broadcast
Telecom
UnifiedUnified
The “lenses” of Niclolas Negroponte -- MIT Labs 1975 -- said a “combined lens” called New Media would be a reality by 2000 -- (Broadcast, Telecom. Computers -- Unified Communications
15
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 15
The Future of Unified ITThe Future of Unified ITParallel ProcessingOnline NetworksVirtualWorldsVirtualRealityImagingSimulationsATMInternetWEBSitesEncryptionMultimediaInteractive TelevisionOnline CommerceEDINetwork SecurityEmbeddedLanguagesJavaMobileSatelliteLinksOpenDocNew Operating Systems
hpcmultichipsNew CompilersDigital Switches on ChipsReal TimeNanoswitchesLanguagesMemoryBandwith
--THE XAVIER GROUP in 1986
16
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 16
The Effects of the Multinational Age (2001-
2008)
• The Internet in a multinational society• The internet as a collaboration tool• Presentation skills and CRM -- building
relationships• Coping with change and complexity• Coping with global competitors• Lifestyle changes to master a world economy• Tracking, Terrorists, Linkage, Privacy
17
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 17
Unified
Information
Technology and
Knowledge
Ontologies
Unified
Neuroscience,
Genome and
Biotechnology
Unified
Materials Science, (Nanotechnology)
and Cellular Robotics
2005 and Beyond2005 and Beyond The Knowledge EconomyUnifiedWholistic Approaches
Man andMachineBio-MeldVirtualSystems
The Lenses of THE XAVIER GROUP 2001
MODEL DRIVEN BY THE LENSES MERGING TOGETHER
18
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 18
Unified
Information
Technology and
Knowledge
Ontologies
Unified
Neuroscience,
Genome and
Biotechnology
Unified
Materials Science (Nanotechnology)
and Cellular Robotics
By 2020By 2020
The Knowledge Economy
The LensThe LensBecomesBecomesOverlappedOverlapped
Man andMachineBio-Meld isMainstream
19
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 19
The Next ParadigmThe Next ParadigmThe Next ParadigmThe Next Paradigm
The melding of the Information Superhighway Networks with Groupware, Virtual Reality and Artificial Life.
20
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 20
The Effects of the Knowledge Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase One– 1998-2005 CRM and ERP (technology began in 1968)
– 1995-2010 Wireless, GPS, RFIDs (technology began in 1975)
– 1973-2020 Virtual Reality, CAD-CAM, 3D Virtual Worlds and Objects, Cyberspace (technology began in 1968)
– 1992-2007 ISO 9000, Standards and Product/Service Tracking
– 1958-2050 Biometrics, Robotic enhancers, Smartbots, automation
21
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 21
The Effects of the Knowledge Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Two– Integration of circuitry -- now to molecular scale– System miniaturization -- systems on a chip– Silicon to plastics to bio-cells– Collaboration/Communications integrity
maintained – Human Genome project, advances in
biotechnology, advances in neuroscience and brain research
– Advances in robotic systems, miniaturization and automation of robots, space systems
22
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 22
The Effects of the Knowledge Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Phase Three– GRID computing, parallel processing, new
knowledge ontologies, object programming, new supercomputers
– New battery and energy technologies -- self-contained
– Mind/Machine solutions for handicaps, terrorism, defense
– Brain mechanisms understood– Microsizing to human cell level– Putting it all together
23
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 23
The Effects of the Knowledge Age
• The melding of Mind with Machine Final Phase– Mind a part of the computer network– Human a part of cyberspace– Ethical, Religious, Military, Market value – The change and complexity issues– The New World (order or disorder) based
on control, independence, interdependence, freedom, tolerance, acceptance of diversity
24
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 24
Area’s Knowledge Strengths
• Educational and Research Capabilities• Connectivity and Linkages• People and Capabilities• Healthcare and Biotechnology• Information Technology and
Telephony• Science and Mathematics Capabilities• Capital Formation and Foundations
25
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 25
Area’s Knowledge Weaknesses
• Brick and Mortar and Old Economy Focus with Public Project Development
• Parochialism and Conservative Statism• Underdeveloped, Underachieving
Workforce• Bad Self-Image, Poor Direction• Fighting Mythical Dinosaurs• Brain-Drain , Aging Population
26
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 26
By 2008• More consolidation of farming,
manufacturing, construction, high-technology, banking and financials, healthcare
• 85% traditional manufacturing moved offshore (72% offshore now)
• 68% high-technology jobs, customer service jobs, financial services, professional services, hardware/software offshore (38% offshore now)
27
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 27
What this means to jobs• Major job losses in traditional
manufacturing, financial services, customer services, high-technology, major construction
• Job losses heavy in management, financial management, engineering, technician areas, brokerages, programming, skilled labor
• 1955-2002 these were by far the best paying and broadest opportunities in the upper middle class
28
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 28
Losing these jobs means more fallout in …
• Any major occupation that caters to upper middle class consumers -- retail, wholesale, government, education, healthcare and so forth
• The fallout of this sector will require four things:– 1. Capability to train in new skills– 2. Public Support for those sliding, less tax capability,
less able to support healthcare, less capable to own real estate, less capable of paying off credit
– 3. More public concerns, welfare, mental health, etc.– 4. Supply from offshore sources to pick up
domestic slack
29
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 29
1980 Wealth Demographics in PA
>6K
6K-10K
10K-18K
18K-23K
23K-28K
28K-36K
36K-45K
45K-64K
64K-75K
75K-90K90K-110K
110K-130K
1.1M-500M
130K-150K
150K-170K
170K-190K
190K-250K
250K-500K
500K-1.1M
500M-800B
WEALTHY
MIDDLE CLASS
WELFARE CLASS
<500K = 6%Wealthy = 23%Middle Class = 48%
Welfare Class = 23%
Wealthiest exceed $650 billion in assets
30
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 30
2000 Wealth Demographics in PA
>6K
6K-10K
10K-18K
18K-23K
23K-28K
28K-36K
36K-45K
45K-64K
64K-75K
75K-90K90K-110K
110K-130K
1.1M-500M
130K-150K
150K-170K
170K-190K
190K-250K
250K-500K
500K-1.1M
500M-800B
WEALTHY
MIDDLE CLASS
WELFARE CLASS
<500K = 4%Wealthy = 26%
Middle Class = 55%Welfare Class = 15%
Wealthiest exceed $800 billion in assets
31
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 31
2010 Wealth Demographics in PA
>6K
6K-10K
10K-18K
18K-23K
23K-28K
28K-36K
36K-45K
45K-64K
64K-75K
75K-90K90K-110K
110K-130K
700K-300M
130K-150K
150K-170K
170K-190K
190K-250K
200K-250K
250K-700K
300M-1T
WEALTHY
MIDDLE CLASS
WELFARE CLASS
<700K = 2%Wealthy = 15%
Middle Class = 64%Welfare Class = 18%
Wealthiest will exceed $1 trillion in assets
32
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 32
From the Past to the Future“What we see today is young
people who, lacking an understanding of the past and a vision of the future, live in an impoverished present.”
-- Allan Bloom, Closing of the American Mind, 1987.
33
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 33
FUTURE CURRICULUM• Biomelding requires merging of Liberal
Arts, Science and Technology Literacy• Teaching within a Futures’ Context• Electronic Networking and Collaboration • Requires radically new knowledge skills• Requires a revamping of Curriculum and
Rubrics
34
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 34
Education of the Future• The coming of the unlimited global
learner instead of a “product” of the educational institution
• Transfer of education from a focus on bell-curve achievement by the Masses to self-realization of the Individual
• Home will become the new center of advanced learning
• Communication electronically anywhere, anytime, anyplace will be at the knowledge core of this shift
35
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 35
Learning and Work
• Scholar’s Learning Mode• Continuous learning • Competency-based versus seat time• Expert systems, many online, will evaluate
resumes, credentials, and determine who will be selected for jobs of the future
• Personal vs Institutional Responsibility
36
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 36
Work and Learning• Work and learning will increasingly
be integrated and continuous.• Knowledge and skills will rapidly
change in the knowledge economy.• Innovative and effective training
and retraining strategies will be essential.
• Successful enterprises will have a culture of learning, will focus on knowledge management and solutions, and knowledge workers.
37
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 37
Workforce• The workforce will continue to
provide both rich opportunities and severe dislocations.
– Mismatch between knowledge skills needed and skills available.
– Continuous learning on the job.– Increasing importance of
knowledge workers makes this the essence of location
38
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 38
New Concepts of Working
• New ways to work will become increasingly widespread.
– Telecommuting and video conferencing will significantly replace face-to-face time and setback airline ambitions.
– Work anywhere, any time, anyplace strategies will become commonplace.
– Role of Workers will change the desire for business to chase traditional skills and markets.
39
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 39
Lifestyles & Demographics
• Aging of the Population– Those over 65 will comprise 21.5% of
the population by 2030.– Retirement age will rise to 70 by 2025.– Many people will continue to work after
“retirement.”– Potential for generational controversy
and conflict will increase.
40
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 40
Change of the Leadership Structure
• Bottom-up systems and networks of webs become more dynamic, effective, and powerful as top-down systems and hierarchies become less effective and powerful.
– Bureaucracies are becoming dysfunctional, PLACES ARE NOT AS IMPORTANT.
– Self-organizing teams are becoming the most effective way of getting things done.
41
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 41
Entrepreneurs and Strategies
• Entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial strategies and activities will be increasingly important to the economic health of a community or region.
– Growth of small businesses and cottage industries
– Increasing numbers of contractual workers
– Entrepreneurial spirit and strategies will be necessary to all effective individuals and employees
42
2/27/04 © Copyright, Frank X. Sowa, All rights reserved. 42
Developing Communities for the 21st Century
It is not Rocket Science! …or is it?The Future of jobs and communities
are at stake! By: Frank X. SowaChairman/CEOTHE XAVIER GROUP, Ltd.P.O. Box 251Glenshaw, PA 15116 USA(412) 487-9422(412) [email protected]://www.xaviergroup.com
Presented at Nemacolin XIV, Public Planners Forum,The Western Executive Development Conference, February 27, 2004