2013 Drought and Seasonal Temperature and
Precipitation Outlook for the Ark-La-Tex Region
2013 Drought and Seasonal Temperature and
Precipitation Outlook for the Ark-La-Tex Region
Jason HansfordSenior Meteorologist
National Weather Service Forecast Office Shreveport, LA
U.S. Drought Monitor (Six Month Comparison)
U.S. Drought Monitor (Six Month Comparison)
August 28, 2012 March 19, 2013
Six Month Rainfall MapLate September 2012 - March 26th, 2013
Six Month Rainfall MapLate September 2012 - March 26th, 2013
Observed Rainfall:Observed Rainfall: Departure from Normal:Departure from Normal:
Twelve Month Rainfall MapMarch 26th- March 25th, 2012-13
Twelve Month Rainfall MapMarch 26th- March 25th, 2012-13
Observed Rainfall:Observed Rainfall: Departure from Normal:Departure from Normal:
11+ Month Rainfall and Departures (Apr. ’12 - Mar. 13th,‘13)
11+ Month Rainfall and Departures (Apr. ’12 - Mar. 13th,‘13)
City: Total Precipitation:
Departure from Normal:
% of Normal:
Shreveport, LA 49.71 -1.26 98%
Monroe, LA 59.41 +5.96 111%
Natchitoches, LA 55.27 +0.41 101%
Texarkana, AR 29.90 -19.33 61%
El Dorado, AR 40.85 -11.32 78%
Hope, AR 41.55 -12.39 77%
Dequeen, AR 24.32 -24.39 50%
Idabel, OK 33.46 -19.54 63%
Mt. Pleasant, TX 38.00 -7.83 83%
Tyler, TX 31.34 -12.22 72%
Longview, TX 38.73 -8.09 83%
Lufkin, TX 37.22 -6.46 85%
Southern Plains Yearly Average Temperature and
Departure from Normal
Southern Plains Yearly Average Temperature and
Departure from Normal
Winter Rains Have Eased Drought Conditions
(December 2012 - February 2013)
Winter Rains Have Eased Drought Conditions
(December 2012 - February 2013)
City: Dec. – Feb. Rainfall
Departure from Normal
% of Normal
Shreveport, LA 13.10 inches -0.62 inches 95%
Monroe, LA 19.18 inches +4.25 inches 128%
Texarkana, AR 9.91 inches -2.53 inches 80%
De Queen, AR 8.01 inches -3.35 inches 71%
El Dorado, AR 12.72 inches -1.55 inches 89%
Tyler, TX 8.33 inches -2.78 inches 75%
Longview, TX 12.49 inches +0.64 inches 105%
Lufkin, TX 11.12 inches -1.37 inches 89%
Three Month Precipitation Totalsand Surpluses
Three Month Precipitation Totalsand Surpluses
60 Day Precipitation Deficits(Late January-Late March 2013)60 Day Precipitation Deficits(Late January-Late March 2013)
30 Day Deficits are Mounting(Late February-Late March 2013)30 Day Deficits are Mounting(Late February-Late March 2013)
Hydrologic Drought(Lake Pool Stage as of 3/26/13)
Hydrologic Drought(Lake Pool Stage as of 3/26/13)
Broken Bow: 601.16 ft (+1.66 ft)
Millwood: 259.67 ft (+0.47 ft)
Wright Patman: 223.78 ft (+3.18 ft)
Lake O’ Pines: 225.48 ft (-3.02 ft)
Caddo Lake: 169.10 ft (-0.90 ft)
Lake D-Arbonne: 80.88 ft (-0.12 ft)
Toledo Bend: 169.40 ft (-2.60 ft)
Lake Fork: 398.59 ft (-4.41 ft)
Sam Rayburn: 162.45 ft (-2.05 ft)
Broken Bow: 601.16 ft (+1.66 ft)
Millwood: 259.67 ft (+0.47 ft)
Wright Patman: 223.78 ft (+3.18 ft)
Lake O’ Pines: 225.48 ft (-3.02 ft)
Caddo Lake: 169.10 ft (-0.90 ft)
Lake D-Arbonne: 80.88 ft (-0.12 ft)
Toledo Bend: 169.40 ft (-2.60 ft)
Lake Fork: 398.59 ft (-4.41 ft)
Sam Rayburn: 162.45 ft (-2.05 ft)
Hydrological Drought Impacts Hydrological Drought Impacts
Measured Pool Stage at 7am: 589.55 Feet
Normal Pool Stage: 599.50 Feet
Measured Pool Stage at 7am: 589.55 Feet
Normal Pool Stage: 599.50 Feet
BROKEN BOW LAKE
November 22, 2012
BROKEN BOW LAKE
November 22, 2012
Hydrological Drought Improvement at Broken Bow Lake
Hydrological Drought Improvement at Broken Bow Lake
What Factors Have Contributed to the Drought???
What Factors Have Contributed to the Drought???
• We must look at sustained temperature patterns in the Equatorial Pacific, stretching along the equator from 170W to 120W longitude, and 5N to 5S latitude.
• Based on certain temperature patterns over a period of time, El Niño or La Niña episodes may develop, which will alter the path of the jet stream, and ultimately determines temperature and precipitation patterns all over the world.
• We must look at sustained temperature patterns in the Equatorial Pacific, stretching along the equator from 170W to 120W longitude, and 5N to 5S latitude.
• Based on certain temperature patterns over a period of time, El Niño or La Niña episodes may develop, which will alter the path of the jet stream, and ultimately determines temperature and precipitation patterns all over the world.
What is El Niño?What is El Niño?• Operational Definition: Operational Definition: defined by a warming of Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C above normal.
• SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions.
• To be classified as a distinct El Niño episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months.
• Operational Definition: Operational Definition: defined by a warming of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C above normal.
• SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions.
• To be classified as a distinct El Niño episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months.
El Niño Effects on Temperature/Precipitation
El Niño Effects on Temperature/Precipitation
What is La Niña?What is La Niña?• Operational Definition: Operational Definition: defined by a cooling of Sea
Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C below normal.
• Just like El Niño, SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions.
• To be classified as a distinct La Niña episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months.
• Operational Definition: Operational Definition: defined by a cooling of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST’s) in the Equatorial Pacific. This phenomenon is characterized by a trend of the 3 month running mean of SST’s 0.5C below normal.
• Just like El Niño, SST’s are measured across various regions in the Pacific, but the Niño 3.4 Region (5°N – 5°S and 170°-120°W) is what is particularly monitored for ENSO conditions.
• To be classified as a distinct La Niña episode, these SST conditions must be met for a period of at least 5 consecutive months.
La Niña Effects on Temperature/Precipitation
La Niña Effects on Temperature/Precipitation
Jet Stream Patterns with El Niño/La Niña Events
Jet Stream Patterns with El Niño/La Niña Events
Recent ENSO EventsRecent ENSO Events
SST’s in the Equatorial PacificSST’s in the Equatorial Pacific
Niño 3.4 Region:Niño 3.4 Region:5°N - 5°S and 170° - 120°W
[ ][ ]
Long Term SST AnomaliesLong Term SST Anomalies
How Strong will ENSO be this Spring?
How Strong will ENSO be this Spring?
Model ForecastsModel Forecasts
Neutral
Strong El Niño
Strong La Niña
What if we maintain neutral conditions for much of the
year???
What if we maintain neutral conditions for much of the
year???
Arctic OscillationArctic Oscillation• Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern
middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical El Niño/La Niña impacts.
1) Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies.
2) Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia.
• Refers to the atmospheric circulation pattern in the northern middle and high latitudes in the Arctic. These can generate strong shifts in the climate pattern than can overwhelm or amplify the typical El Niño/La Niña impacts.
1) Exhibits a negative phase when higher pressures develop over the Polar region, and low pressures develop in the mid- latitudes (near 45°N). This results in frigid air plunging south into North America east of the Rockies.
2) Exhibits a positive phase when lower pressures develop over the Polar region, and higher pressures develop in the mid- latitudes. This will keep the frigid air locked up in the Arctic region, but also drives ocean storms farther north. Thus, wetter weather is usually associated throughout Alaska, Scotland, and Scandinavia.
Arctic Oscillation (1950 - Current)
Arctic Oscillation (1950 - Current)
Limitations to Forecasting:Limitations to Forecasting:
Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.
Limitations to Forecasting:Limitations to Forecasting:
Strong AO episodes typically last only a few weeks, and are difficult to predict more than a week or two in advance.
North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Fluctuations in the difference of
sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores high.
+ NAO prevents cold air from plunging southward over eastern North America.
Shows multi-decadal signal.
Has an effect on Hurricanes in the Atlantic. (During +NAO events, the Bermuda High is weaker, allowing for a more W-E flow across the Atlantic. SST’s in the Atlantic are also unusually cold following +NAO winters.)
Historical NAO Index(1950-Current)
Historical NAO Index(1950-Current)
Strong positive anomalies last winter.
Strong negative anomalies this winter.
Monthly Observed Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation
Indices
Monthly Observed Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation
Indices
AO/NAO Influences on the Average Temperatures across
the CONUS
AO/NAO Influences on the Average Temperatures across
the CONUS
AO/NAO used in Developing Probabilistic Maps of Temperature
AO/NAO used in Developing Probabilistic Maps of Temperature
Very Strong –AO Contributing to the CONUS Deep Freeze
Very Strong –AO Contributing to the CONUS Deep Freeze
Drought Severity IndicesDrought Severity Indices• Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most
effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate.
a) Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus.
• Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index.
a) Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index.
• Palmer Drought Severity Index: Is most effective in determining long term drought by using temperature and precipitation to calculate dryness. It is also standardized to the local climate.
a) Measured on a scale of -4 to 4, with negative values indicating drought, and positive values indicating moisture surplus.
• Crop Moisture Index (CMI): Is a short term drought index, based on precipitation, dryness, and wetness affecting agriculture. It changes more rapidly from week to week than the Palmer Index.
a) Uses the same scale as the Palmer Index.
Calculated Soil MoistureCalculated Soil Moisture
Soil Moisture is 400 - 550 mm (15.5 – 21.5 in.)
deep.
That’s 50-100 mm (2.0 - 4.0 in.)
BELOW normal!
Palmer/Crop Moisture Drought Index
Palmer/Crop Moisture Drought Index
How Much Rain is Needed to End the Drought?
How Much Rain is Needed to End the Drought?
Spring OutlookSpring Outlook
Issued by the Climate Prediction Center
Long Term Drought OutlookLong Term Drought Outlook
The EndThe End
Any Questions???Any Questions???