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    Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology, 2011; 46: 261270

    REVIEW ARTICLE

    Systematic review and meta-analysis of antibiotic prophylaxis in severeacute pancreatitis

    MATHIAS WITTAU1, BENJAMIN MAYER2, JAN SCHEELE1, DORIS HENNE-BRUNS1,

    E. PATCHEN DELLINGER3 & RAINER ISENMANN4

    1Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital, Ulm, Germany,

    2Department of

    Biometry, University of Ulm, Ulm, Germany, 3

    Department of Surgery, Division of General Surgery, University of

    Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, and 4

    Department of Visceral Surgery, St. Anna Virngrundklinik, Ellwangen,

    Germany

    Abstract

    Objective.The incidence of acute pancreatitis varies from 5 to 80 per 100,000 throughout the world. The most common

    cause of death in these patients is infection of pancreatic necrosis by enteric bacteria, spurring the discussion of whether or

    not prophylactic antibiotic administration could be a benecial approach. In order to provide evidence of the effect of

    antibiotic prophylaxis in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) we performed an updated systematic review and meta-analysis on

    this topic.Methods.The review of randomized controlled trials was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting

    Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) statement. We conducted a search of MEDLINE, EMBASE,

    and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. For assessment of the treatment effects we calculated the risk ratios

    (RRs) for dichotomous data of included studies. Results.Fourteen trials were included with a total of 841 patients. The use

    of antibiotic prophylaxis was not associated with a statistically signicant reduction in mortality (RR 0.74 [95% CI 0.50

    1.07]), in the incidence of infected pancreatic necrosis (RR 0.78 [95% CI 0.601.02]), in the incidence of non-

    pancreatic infections (RR 0.70 [95% CI 0.46

    1.06]), and in surgical interventions (RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.72

    1.20]).Conclusion. In summary, to date there is no evidence that supports the routine use of antibiotic prophylaxis in patients

    with SAP.

    Key Words: Acute pancreatitis, antibiotic prophylaxis, pancreatitis, prophylactic antibiotics

    Introduction

    The most common cause of death in patients suffering

    from severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is the infection of

    pancreatic necrosis by enteric bacteria with mortality

    rates of 30% (range 1462%) [1,2], spurring the

    discussion of whether or not prophylactic antibioticadministration could be a benecial approach. Ran-

    domized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) on this topic

    published in the 1990s have shown lower rates of

    infected pancreatic necrosis and reduced mortality

    [3,4]. Contrary to this, statistically signicant positive

    effects of this prophylaxis could not be conrmed by

    three double blind randomized studies, published in

    2004, 2007 and 2009 [1,5,6]. Several meta-

    analyses on this issue were published since the late

    1990s and intended to provide reliable evidence.

    However, their results ranged from absolutely no

    effect of antibiotic prophylaxis to positive effects

    regarding mortality, the incidence of infected pancre-atic necrosis and the incidence of extrapancreatic

    infections.

    In order to provide reliable evidence of the effect of

    antibiotic prophylaxis in SAP, we performed an

    updated systematic review and a meta-analysis on

    this topic.

    Correspondence: Mathias Wittau, MD, Department of General, Visceral and Transplantation Surgery, University Hospital Ulm, Steinhoevelstr. 9, 89075 Ulm,

    Germany. Tel: +49 73150053500. Fax: +49 73150053503. E-mail: [email protected]

    (Received 13 July 2010; accepted 19 September 2010)

    ISSN 0036-5521 print/ISSN 1502-7708 online 2011 Informa Healthcare

    DOI: 10.3109/00365521.2010.531486

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    Methods

    Data sources and study selection

    A detailed protocol was developed prior to study

    initiation. The review of RCTs was performed in

    accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for

    Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA)

    statement [7]. We conducted a search of MEDLINE

    (1966 to December 2009), MEDLINE in-process

    and other non-indexed citations (December 2009),

    EMBASE (1980 to December 2009), and the

    Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials

    (4th Quarter 2009) via PubMed and Ovid interfaces.

    The following medical subject heading terms

    pancreatitis, antibiotics, and randomized con-

    trolled trialand text terms were used with Boolean

    operators NOT, AND and OR, as demon-

    strated in Appendix A for MEDLINE. Reference listsfrom the trials selected by electronic searching and

    conference abstracts from 2005 to 2009 (European

    Pancreatic Club, American Pancreatic Association,

    International Association of Pancreatology, United

    European Gastroenterology Week, and Digestive Dis-

    ease Week) were hand searched. Google Scholar was

    used to search gray literature sources and Controlled-

    trials.com/ClinicalTrials.gov for ongoing registered

    clinical trials. Search was performed without language

    restrictions non-English/non-German manuscripts

    were translated.

    Inclusion criteria

    . Study design: RCTantibiotic prophylaxis versus

    placebo or best supportive care.. Study population: patients with severe acute

    pancreatitis. SAP was diagnosed with any of

    the following: Ranson score, Acute Physiology

    and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, Imrie

    score, C-reactive protein levels >120 mg/L,

    Balthazar CT grade E [8], Atlanta criteria [9]

    or according to the Bangkok Working Party

    Report 2002 [10].. Intervention: intravenous prophylactic antibiotic

    administration.. Outcome data of mortality and incidence of

    infected pancreatic necrosis available.

    Data extraction

    Data were independently extracted by two reviewers

    (M. W. and J. S.). Each article was reviewed to

    determine whether it met the predened inclusion

    criteria. Reviewers extracted the following data from

    each report using a standardized data collection

    form: rst author, year of publication, number of

    patients in the treatment and control arms, setting

    (single-center/multicenter), blinding, name of antibi-

    otic, dose and timing of antibiotic administration,

    incidence of mortality, incidence of infected pancre-

    atic necrosis, incidence of non-pancreatic infections,and need for surgery. Disagreements over values or

    analyses were resolved by discussion and arbitration

    of a third author (R. I.).

    Assessment of internal validity

    The internal validity of included RCTs was appraised

    by one reviewer and checked by a second using

    the criteria of the Cochrane Collaboration (sequence

    generation, concealment of allocation, blinding,

    incomplete outcome data, and selective outcome

    reporting) [11,12].

    Data synthesis and analysis

    Analyses were performed using the Review Manager

    software version 5.0 for Windows

    (The Cochrane

    Collaboration). For assessment of the treatment

    effects, we calculated the risk ratios (RRs) for dichot-

    omous data of included studies with their corre-

    sponding 95% condence intervals (CIs). To

    calculate an overall effect size, we combined the

    single RRs with the xed effects MantelHaenszel

    method, which assume homogeneity among the

    studies [13]. In case of heterogeneity, the random

    effects method according to DerSimonian and Laird

    was used to calculate the overall effect [14]. The

    decision for calculation with the xed or random

    effects method was made by the I2 test. An I2 greater

    than 50% indicates heterogeneity between the

    included studies, and the random effects method

    was used for calculation. p 0.05 was considered

    statistically signicant. For qualitative evaluation of

    publication bias we used funnel plots. The quanti-

    tative assessment of the presence of publication bias

    was performed with the Egger et al. [15] and

    Begg et al. [16] tests. A sensitivity analysis wasconducted for class of antibiotic, risk of bias in the

    trials, and blinding.

    Results

    The process of identifying relevant trials is shown

    in Figure 1. A total of 1633 literature records were

    retrieved by initial search. After removing duplicates

    and articles not related to pancreatitis or antibiotic

    prophylaxis or humans, 24 articles were assessed for

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    eligibility. Ten articles were judged not eligible: three

    early trials including different severities of disease and

    ampicillin prophylaxis [1719], one trial on antibiotic

    timing [20], and ve trials comparing two or more

    different antibiotic drugs or different dosing duration

    [2125]. One record was a report of a subgroup

    analysis of patients with proven necrosis of two ran-

    domized trails [26]. The data of this report were not

    included in the analysis. Finally, 14 trials were

    included in the qualitative and quantitative analysis

    [1,36,27,2835].

    Study characteristics

    Of the 14 included RCTs (Table I), nine were single-

    center and ve mulitcenter trials. Eight trials use a

    carbapenem-based prophylaxis, four studies a

    quinolone-based prophylaxis imidazole, one trial

    used a combination of ceftazidime, amikacin and

    imidazole, and one trial used cefuroxime for prophy-

    laxis. The 14 RCTs comprised a total of 841 patients

    with SAP. Of these, 420 patients were randomized to

    the prophylaxis group and 421 to the control group.

    Data regarding mortality, incidence of infection of

    pancreatic necrosis and non-pancreatic infections and

    surgical intervention are summarized in Table I. No

    important baseline differences between the treatment

    groups were identied.

    Study validity

    The internal validity of the trials was heterogeneous

    (Table II). Three trials were judged having low risk of

    bias and 11 trials having high risk of bias. Three

    Records identified through databasesearching:

    EMBASE (n= 1039)Medline + Medline in process (n= 430)Cochrane Central Register of ControlledTrials (n = 159)

    Additional records identifiedthrough other sources

    (n = 5)

    Records after duplicates removed(n = 1426)

    Records screened(n = 1426)

    Records excluded(n = 1402)

    Articles assessed foreligibility(n = 24)

    Studies included inqualitative synthesis

    (n = 14)

    Studies included inquantitative synthesis

    (meta-analysis)(n = 14)

    Articles excluded:Antibiotics vs. antibiotics (n = 5)Antibiotic timing (n = 1)RCT with unclear/different severity(n = 3)Subgroup analysis of 2 RCTs (n = 1)

    Figure 1. Flow diagram: meta-analysis of RCTs in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

    Evidence of antibiotic prophylaxis in severe acute pancreatitis 263

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    TableI.Characteristicsofincludedstudies.

    Study

    YearB

    linded

    Antibiotic

    type

    n

    Mortality,

    n

    Infectednecrosis,

    n

    Surgery,

    n

    Non-pancreatic

    infections

    ,n

    Setting

    Pederzolietal.

    [3]

    1993N

    umber

    Imipenem

    41

    3

    5

    12

    6

    single-center

    None

    33

    4

    10

    11

    16

    Sainioetal.

    [4]

    1995N

    umber

    Cefuroxime

    30

    1

    9

    7

    NR

    single-center

    None

    30

    7

    12

    14

    NR

    Delcenserieetal.

    [29]

    1996N

    umber

    Ceftazidime+Amikacin

    +Metronidazole

    11

    1

    0

    0

    0

    single-center

    None

    12

    3

    3

    3

    4

    Schwarzetal.

    [30]

    1997N

    umber

    Ooxacin+Metronidazole

    13

    0

    8

    NR

    4

    single-center

    None

    13

    2

    7

    NR

    6

    Nordbacketal.

    [31]

    2001N

    umber

    Imipenem(primary)

    25

    2

    1

    2

    NR

    single-center

    Imipenem(secondary)

    33

    5

    6

    5

    NR

    Spicaketal.

    [32]

    2002N

    umber

    Ciprooxacin+Metronidazole

    33

    5

    1

    6

    NR

    multicenter

    Ciprooxacin+Metronidazole(ondemand)

    30

    3

    0

    7

    NR

    Spicaketal.

    [33]

    2003N

    umber

    Meropenem

    20

    4

    3

    4

    NR

    multicenter

    Meropenem(ondemand

    )

    21

    5

    6

    5

    NR

    Isenmannetal.

    [1]

    2004D

    ouble-b

    linded

    Ciprooxacin+Metronidazole

    58

    3

    7

    10

    13

    multicenter

    None

    56

    4

    5

    6

    13

    Rkkeetal.

    [27]

    2007N

    umber

    Imipenem

    36

    3

    3#

    3

    3

    multicenter

    None

    37

    4

    6#

    3

    12

    Dellingeretal.

    [5]

    2007D

    ouble-

    blinded

    Meropenem

    50

    10

    9

    13

    16

    multicenter

    None

    50

    9

    6

    10

    24

    Barredaetal.

    [34]

    2009N

    umber

    Imipenem

    24

    0

    3

    4

    7

    single-center

    None

    34

    0

    2

    2

    5

    Garcia-Barrasaetal.

    [6]

    2009D

    ouble-

    blinded

    Ciprooxacin

    22

    4

    8

    11

    6

    single-center

    None

    19

    2

    8

    8

    8

    Xueetal.

    [35]

    2009N

    umber

    Imipenem

    29

    3

    8

    9

    NR

    single-center

    None

    27

    4

    10

    9

    NR

    Yangetal.

    [28]

    2009N

    umber

    Imipenem

    28

    2

    6

    4

    13

    single-center

    None

    26

    3

    8

    5

    9

    #Dataprovidedbyauthorafterpersonalcommunication(O.

    Rkke).

    264 M. Wittau et al.

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    studies were double-blinded whereas 11 trials were

    unblinded.

    Evaluation of publication bias

    We found no clear evidence of publication bias

    (Figure 2). Only the funnel plot of the outcome

    parameter mortality did not show absolute symme-

    try, suggesting a possibility of publication bias.

    The Begg et al. [16] test indicated the pre-

    sence of publication bias (p = 0.023) while the Egger

    et al. [15] test did not show a publication

    bias regarding the outcome parameter mortality

    (p = 0.11).

    Mortality

    There were 841 patients involved in 14 trials

    (Figure 3). Ninety-six patients died, 41/420 (9.7%)

    in the prophylactic antibiotic group and 55/421 (13%)

    in the control group. In the trial of Barreda et al. [34]

    no patient died. Therefore, in this trial the RR was not

    estimable. The use of antibiotic prophylaxis was not

    associated with a statistically signicant reduction in

    Table II. Assessment of internal validity.

    Study/Author YearAdequate sequencegeneration

    Concealedallocation Blinding

    Addressing incompleteoutcome data

    Free from selectiveoutcome reporting

    Pederzoli et al. [3] 1993 Yes Unclear No Yes Yes

    Sainio et al. [4] 1995 Unclear Yes No Yes Yes

    Delcenserie et al. [29] 1996 Yes Unclear No Unclear Yes

    Schwarz et al. [30] 1997 Unclear Unclear No Yes Yes

    Nordback et al. [31] 2001 Unclear Unclear No Yes Yes

    Spicak et al. [32] 2002 No Unclear No Unclear Yes

    Spicak et al. [33] 2003 Unclear Unclear No Unclear Yes

    Isenmann et al. [1] 2004 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

    Rkke et al. [27] 2007 Yes Unclear No Yes Yes

    Dellinger et al. [5] 2007 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

    Barreda et al. [34] 2009 Unclear Unclear No Yes Yes

    Garcia-Barrasa et al. [6] 2009 Yes# Yes# Yes Yes Yes

    Xue et al. [35] 2009 Yes Unclear No Yes Yes

    Yang et al. [28] 2009 Yes Unclear No Yes Yes

    #Details provided by author after personal communication (J. Busquets).

    0.22

    1.5

    1

    0.5

    0SE (log[RR])

    0.5 1 2 5

    RR

    Figure 2. Funnel plot: infected necrosis.

    Evidence of antibiotic prophylaxis in severe acute pancreatitis 265

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    mortality (xed effect model, pooled RR 0.74 [95%

    CI 0.501.07]). There was no heterogeneity between

    the trials (p = 0.84; I2 = 0%).

    Infected necrosis

    Data of the incidence of infected necrosis were avail-

    able in all trials (Figure 4). Of 841 patients, 160 devel-

    oped infected pancreatic necrosis, 71/420 (17%) in

    the prophylactic antibiotic group and 89/421 (21%) in

    the control group. The use of antibiotic prophylaxis

    was not associated with a statistically signicant

    reduction in the incidence of infected pancreatic

    necrosis (xed effect model, pooled RR 0.78 [95%

    CI 0.601.02]). There was no heterogeneity between

    the trials (p = 0.58; I2 = 0%).

    Non-pancreatic infection

    Nine trials reported data of the incidence of non-

    pancreatic infections (Figure 5) [1,3,5,6,2730,34].

    A total of 563 patients were included in the analysis.

    Study or Subgroup

    Barreda et al 09

    Delcenserie et al 96

    Dellinger et al 07

    Garcia-Barrasa 09

    Isenmann et al 04Nordback et al 01

    Pederzoli et al 93

    Rokke et al 07

    Sainio et al 95

    Schwarz et al 97

    Spicak et al 02

    Spicak et al 03

    Xue et al 09

    Yang et al 09

    Total (95% Cl)

    Total events

    Heterogeneity: Chiz= 7.25, df = 12 (p= 0.84); Iz= 0%

    Test for overall effect: Z = 1.59 (p= 0.11)

    420 421 100.0% 0.74 [0.50, 1.07]

    41 55

    0

    1

    10

    4

    32

    3

    3

    1

    0

    5

    4

    3

    2

    24

    11

    50

    22

    5825

    41

    36

    30

    13

    33

    20

    29

    28

    0

    3

    9

    2

    45

    4

    4

    7

    2

    3

    5

    4

    3

    34

    12

    50

    19

    5633

    33

    37

    30

    13

    30

    21

    27

    26

    Not estimable

    0.36 [0.04, 3.00]

    1.11 [0.49, 2.50]

    1.73 [0.35, 8.41]

    0.72 [0.17, 3.09]0.53 [0.11, 2.50]

    0.60 [0.15, 2.51]

    077 [0.19, 3.20]

    0.14 [0.02, 1.09]

    0.20 [0.01,3.80]

    1.52 [0.40, 5.81]

    0.84 [0.26, 2.69]

    0.70 [0.17, 2.84]

    0.62 [ 0.11, 3.41]

    5.2%

    16.2%

    3.9%

    7.3%7.8%

    8.0%

    7.1%

    12.6%

    4.5%

    5.7%

    8.8%

    7.5%

    5.6%

    Prophylaxis Control

    Events Total Events Total Weight M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl

    Risk Ratio Risk Ratio

    0.2 0.5Favours Experimental Favours Control1 2 5

    Figure 3. Forest plot of relative risk; [95% condence intervals]: mortality.

    Study or Subgroup

    Barreda et al 09Delcenserie et al 96Dellinger et al 07Garcia-Barrasa 09Isenmann et al 04Nordback et al 01Pederzoli et al 93Rokke et al 07

    Sainio et al 95Schwarz et al 97Spicak et al 02Spicak et al 03Xue et al 09Yang et al 09

    Total (95% Cl)

    Total events

    Heterogeneity: Chiz= 11.39, df = 13 (p= 0.58); Iz= 0%

    Test for overall effect: Z = 1.81 (p= 0.07)

    420 421 100.0% 0.78 [0.60, 1.02]

    71 89

    30987153

    981386

    2411502258254136

    301333202928

    236856

    106

    12706

    108

    3412501956333337

    301330212726

    2.13 [0.38, 11.76]0.15 [0.01, 2.70]1.50 [0.58, 3.90]0.86 [0.40, 1.85]1.35 [0.46, 4.01]0.22 [0.03, 1.71]0.40 [0.15, 1.06]0.51 [0.14, 1.90]

    0.75 [0.37, 1.51]1.14 [0.59, 2.22]

    2.74 [0.12, 64.69]0.53 [0.15, 1.82]0.74 [0.35, 1.61]0.70 [0.28, 1.74]

    1.8%3.7%6.6%9.4%5.6%5.7%

    12.2%6.5%

    13.2%7.7%0.6%6.4%

    11.4%9.1%

    Prophylaxis Control

    Events Total Events Total Weight M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl

    Risk Ratio Risk Ratio

    0.2 0.5

    Favours Experimental Favours Control

    1 2 5

    Figure 4. Forest plot of relative risk; [95% condence intervals]: infected pancreatic necrosis.

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    One hundred sixty-ve patients developed non-

    pancreatic infections, 68/283 (24%) in the prophy-

    lactic antibiotic group and 97/280 (35%) in the

    control group. The use of antibiotic prophylaxis

    was not associated with a statistically signicant

    reduction in the incidence of non-pancreatic infec-

    tions (random effect model, pooled RR 0.70 [95% CI

    0.461.06]). There was a statistically signicant het-

    erogeneity between the trials (p = 0.03; I2 = 53%).

    Surgical intervention

    Data of the number of surgical interventions were

    available in 13 trials (Figure 6) [1,36,2729,3135].

    A total of 815 patients were included in the analysis.

    One hundred seventy-three patients underwent sur-

    gery, 85/407 (21%) in the prophylactic antibiotic

    group and 88/408 (21.5%) in the control group.

    The use of antibiotic prophylaxis was not associated

    with a statistically signicant reduction in surgical

    interventions (xed effect model, pooled RR 0.93

    [95% CI 0.721.20]). There was no heterogeneity

    between the trials (p = 0.67; I2 = 0%).

    Sensitivity analysis

    In order to determine whether class of antibiotic, risk

    of bias in the trials, or blinding had a signicant effect

    Study or Subgroup

    Barreda et al 09

    Delcenserie et al 96

    Dellinger et al 07

    Garcia-Barrasa 09

    Isenmann et al 04

    Nordback et al 01

    Pederzoli et al 93

    Rokke et al 07

    Sainio et al 95

    Spicak et al 02

    Spicak et al 03

    Xue et al 09

    Yang et al 09

    Total (95% Cl)

    Total events

    Heterogeneity: Chiz= 9.42, df = 12 (p= 0.67); Iz= 0%

    Test for overall effect: Z = 0.55 (p= 0.58)

    407 408 100.0% 0.93 [0.72, 1.20]

    85 88

    4

    0

    13

    11

    10

    2

    12

    3

    7

    6

    4

    9

    4

    24

    11

    50

    22

    58

    25

    41

    36

    30

    33

    20

    29

    28

    2

    3

    10

    8

    6

    5

    11

    3

    14

    7

    5

    9

    5

    34

    12

    50

    19

    56

    33

    33

    37

    30

    30

    21

    27

    26

    2.83 [0.56, 14.24]

    0.15 [0.01, 2.70]

    1.30 [0.63, 2.68]

    1.19 [0.61, 2.33]

    1.61 [0.63, 4.13]

    0.53 [0.11, 2.50]

    0.88 [0.45, 1.73]

    1.03 [0.22, 4.76]

    0.50 [0.24, 1.06]

    0.78 [0.29, 2.06]

    0.84 [0.26, 2.69]

    0.93 [0.44, 1.99]

    0.74 [0.22, 2.47]

    1.8%

    3.7%

    11.1%

    9.6%

    6.8%

    4.8%

    13.6%

    3.3%

    15.6%

    8.2%

    5.4%

    10.4%

    5.8%

    Prophylaxis Control

    Events Total Events Total Weight M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl

    Risk Ratio Risk Ratio

    0.2 0.5

    Favours Experimental Favours Control

    1 2 5

    Figure 6. Forest plot of relative risk; [95% condence intervals]: surgical intervention.

    Study or Subgroup

    Barreda et al 09

    Delcenserie et al 96

    Dellinger et al 07

    Garcia-Barrasa 09

    Isenmann et al 04Pederzoli et al 93

    Rokke et al 07

    Schwarz et al 97

    Yang et al 09

    Total (95% Cl)

    Total events

    Heterogeneity: Tauz= 0.20; Chiz= 17.12, df = 8 (p= 0.03); Iz= 53%

    Test for overall effect: Z = 1.67 (p= 0.10)

    283 280 100.0% 0.70 [0.46, 1.06]

    68 97

    7

    0

    16

    6

    136

    3

    4

    13

    24

    11

    50

    22

    5841

    36

    13

    28

    5

    4

    24

    8

    1316

    12

    6

    9

    34

    12

    50

    19

    5633

    37

    13

    26

    1.98 [0.71, 5.51]

    0.12 [0.01, 2.01]

    0.67 [0.41, 1.10]

    0.65 [0.27, 1.53]

    0.97 [0.49, 1.90]0.30 [0.13, 0.68]

    0.26 [0.08, 0.84]

    0.67 [0.24, 1.82]

    1.34 [0.69, 2.60]

    9.7%

    2.0%

    17.3%

    11.6%

    14.4%12.2%

    8.2%

    9.9%

    14.6%

    Prophylaxis Control

    Events Total Events Total Weight M-H, Random, 95% Cl M-H, Random, 95% Cl

    Risk Ratio Risk Ratio

    0.2 0.5

    Favours Experimental Favours Control

    1 2 5

    Figure 5. Forest plot of relative risk; [95% condence intervals]: non-pancreatic infections.

    Evidence of antibiotic prophylaxis in severe acute pancreatitis 267

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    on strength and direction of results, we performed a

    sensitivity analysis.

    Carbapenem-based prophylaxis

    Eight trials used carbapenem-based prophylaxis

    [3,5,27,28,31,3335]. This prophylaxis was not asso-

    ciated with a statistically signi

    cant reduction in mor-tality (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.501.27]), the incidence of

    infected pancreatic necrosis (RR 0.69 [95% CI 0.48

    1.01]), the incidence of non-pancreatic infections

    (random RR 0.69 [95% CI 0.351.36]), and in sur-

    gical interventions (RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.711.40]).

    Risk of bias in the trials and blinding

    Three trials were of low risk of bias and double-

    blinded [1,5,6]. There was not statistically signicant

    reduction in mortality (RR 1.09 [95% CI 0.582.08]),

    the incidence of infected pancreatic necrosis (RR 1.18[95% CI 0.702.01]) (Figure 7), the incidence of

    non-pancreatic infections (RR 0.75 [95% CI 0.52

    1.08]), and in surgical interventions (RR 1.34 [95%

    CI 0.862.09]).

    Discussion

    Antibiotic prophylaxis in SAP is a controversial issue

    since nearly two decades. Several randomized trials

    focused on this topic with contrary results ranging

    from a positive effect on mortality, incidence of

    infected necrosis and non-pancreatic infection to

    absolute no effect on these outcome parameters. In

    order to clarify this important issue we performed an

    updated meta-analysis including all 2009 published

    RCTs. In patients with SAP antibiotic prophylaxis is

    not associated with a statistically signicant decrease

    in mortality, the incidence of infected pancreatic

    necrosis, the incidence of non-pancreatic infection,or the need for surgery. Further, the sensitivity anal-

    yses could not nd any statistically signicant effect

    on the direction of results regarding carbapenem-

    based antibiotic prophylaxis (six trials with imipenem

    and two trials with meropenem), risk of bias in the

    trials, or blinding. These ndings are consistent with

    those of Jafri et al. [36] for type of antibiotics and

    higher-quality studies but, however, in contrast to

    those of Villatoro et al. [37] for the parameter infected

    pancreatic necrosis with imipenem prophylaxis.

    Villatoro et al. found a statistically signicant decrease

    of infected pancreatic necrosis with imipenem in an

    analysis of three trails whereas in our analysis with

    carbapenem prophylaxis no statistically signicant

    decrease could be seen, nevertheless with borderline

    signicance. Although this meta-analysis indicate a

    borderline signicance for the outcome parameter

    infected pancreatic necrosis with a pooled RR of 0.78

    [95% CI 0.601.02], the likelihood that there was

    statistically signicance for the important outcomes

    of mortality or surgery was not even borderline

    close to signicance, especially in higher-quality

    double-blinded trials. Thus, the real effect for the

    Study or Subgroup

    Barreda et al 09

    Delcenserie et al 96

    Dellinger et al 07

    Garcia-Barrasa 09

    Isenmann et al 04Nordback et al 01

    Pederzoli et al 93

    Rokke et al 07

    Sainio et al 95

    Schwarz et al 97

    Spicak et al 02

    Spicak et al 03

    Xue et al 09

    Yang et al 09

    Total (95% Cl)

    Total events

    Heterogeneity: Chiz= 0.95, df = 2 (p= 0.62); Iz= 0%

    Test for overall effect: Z = 0.63 (p= 0.53)

    130 125 100.0% 1.18 [0.70, 2.01]

    24 19

    3

    0

    9

    8

    71

    5

    3

    9

    8

    1

    3

    8

    6

    24

    11

    50

    22

    5825

    41

    36

    30

    13

    33

    20

    29

    28

    2

    3

    6

    8

    56

    10

    6

    12

    7

    0

    6

    10

    8

    34

    12

    50

    19

    5633

    33

    37

    30

    13

    30

    21

    27

    26

    2.13 [0.38, 11.76]

    0.15 [0.01, 2.70]

    1.50 [0.58, 3.90]

    0.86 [0.40, 1.85]

    1.35 [0.46, 4.01]0.22 [0.03, 1.71]

    0.40 [0.15, 1.06]

    0.51 [0.14, 1.90]

    0.75 [0.37, 1.51]

    1.14 [0.59, 2.22]

    2.74 [0.12, 64.69]

    0.53 [0.15, 1.82]

    0.74 [0.35, 1.61]

    0.70 [0.28, 1.74]

    0.0%

    0.0%

    30.5%

    43.6%

    25.9%0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    Prophylaxis Control

    Events Total Events Total Weight M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl M-H, Fixed, 95% Cl

    Risk Ratio Risk Ratio

    0.2 0.5Favours Experimental Favours Control1 2 5

    Figure 7. Forest plot of relative risk; [95% condence intervals]: infected pancreatic necrosis trials with low risk of bias.

    268 M. Wittau et al.

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    patient, dying or needing an operation, never comes

    close to signicance.

    Further, the relationship between methodological

    quality of the trials and the outcome, as described by

    de Vries et al. [38] could be conrmed by our sen-

    sitivity analysis, i.e. the higher quality trials were thosewith the least potential effect of antibiotic prophylaxis,

    indicating less likelihood of missing a real effect.

    One possible limitation of this meta-analysis is

    pooling data of patients without proven pancreatic

    necrosis and patients with proven pancreatic necrosis.

    But, even meta-analyses with the inclusion criterion

    ceCT-proven necrosis included, at least in parts,

    data of patients in which necrosis was not conrmed

    by contrast-enhanced computer tomography (ceCT)

    [39,36,37,4042]. Just one example, Sainio et al. [4]

    stated in the result section of their publication that

    . . .Five patients in the antibiotic group and seven in

    the non-antibiotic group had plain CT only. . .

    , i.e.

    only 25 patients in the antibiotic group and 23 patients

    in the non-antibiotic group had ceCT-proven necrosis

    and not 30 patients per group, included in these meta-

    analyses.

    For a physician it is important to know whether an

    antibiotic prophylaxis is benecial for a patient with

    SAP, not only for a patient with ceCT-proven pan-

    creatic necrosis. In clinical daily routine, it is often

    impossible to perform a ceCT scan, e.g. due to

    impaired kidney function.

    A second possible limitation could be the timing of

    antibiotic prophylaxis. L. Besselink et al. focused in a

    cohort study on this topic and found that half of therelevant infections occur in the rst few days of the

    disease and that these infections, especially bacterae-

    mia, are associated with an increased risk of devel-

    oping infected necrosis and death [43]. On the basis

    of these ndings, Besselink et al. [43] concluded that

    prophylactic strategies should focus on early interven-

    tion. However, Manes and colleagues also addressed

    this issue in a recent published randomized trial and

    found only a statistically signicant decrease of extra-

    pancreatic infection with antibiotic prophylaxis at

    hospital admission [20]. The analysis of our included

    trials showed in most cases imprecise data of timing of

    prophylaxis (within 3 days, within 2 days, etc.)

    and start of antibiotic prophylaxis ranged in the mean

    from 1.5 to 5 days. Thus, a conclusive answer could

    not be drawn from these data.

    In summary, to date there is no statistically signif-

    icant evidence that supports the routine use of anti-

    biotic prophylaxis in SAP. However, in case of newly

    developed sepsis or SIRS, newly developed failure of

    two or more organ systems, proven pancreatic or

    extrapancreatic infection, and an increase in serum

    C-reactive protein in combination with evidence of

    pancreatic or extrapancreatic infection an antibiotic

    treatmentshould be considered, as recommended by

    Isenmann et al. [1]. Nordback et al. demonstrated

    that this on demand treatment might avoid or

    postpone surgery [31].

    Further, it is possible that a subgroup of patientsprot from an antibiotic prophylaxis, e.g. with large

    pancreatic necrosis, but this is not evidence-based till

    now. Thus, this issue and the impact of timing of

    antibiotic prophylaxis should be the subject of further

    well designed RCTs.

    Declaration of interest: The authors report no

    conicts of interest. The authors alone are responsible

    for the content and writing of the paper.

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    Supplementary material available online

    Appendix A.

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