Download - 15 - Ethical Decision Making
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
1/49
Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Engineering and Society:Ethical Decision Making
Dr. Gershon Weltman
Engineering 183EW, UC! SE!S
ect"re 1#
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
2/49
2Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$he Decision En%ironment1
&ealWorld
Sit"ationModel
Co"rseo' !ction
1
!'ter: Cohen, M.S. ()m*ro%ing Critical $hinking,+ Cogniti%e $echnologies, )nc., --#
NaturalisticDecisionMaking
ercei%e/ 0"ild
Use he"ristics to select
!ct on thereal orld
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
3/49
3Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$he Decision En%ironment1
&ealWorld
Sit"ationModel
Co"rseo' !ction
Analysis Test2s some !elay accepta"le#2s the cost o$ an error high#2s the situation un$amiliar or pro"lematic#2s tracea"ility%accounta"ility !esira"le#
Decision !nalysis
1
!'ter: Cohen, M.S. ()m*ro%ing Critical $hinking,+ Cogniti%e $echnologies, )nc., --#
$ yes, procee! to
NaturalisticDecisionMaking
AnalyticalDecision
Making
!nalye
/ 0"ild a
4"antitati%elyselect o*timal
!ct on the
real orld
&e'ine /5"anti'y
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
4/49
4Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
!nalytical Decision Making
A &ro$essional 'e(uirement
Working e%el
Management e%el
Strategic and olicy e%el
A Conscious &rocess
Cogniti%e er'ormance
Meta6Cogniti%e E%al"ation
A )earna"le *kill
Methodologies
E7*erience and ractice
eed0ack and !d9"stment
Dealing ith Stress Working Colla0orati%ely
)n the real orld, decisions are generally a com0ination o' nat"ralistic and analytical
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
5/49
5Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$o Main $y*es o' Decision !nalyses
(Certain+ "tcomes (ro0a0ilistic+ "tcomes
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
6/49
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
7/49
7Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! 1: *tions and !ttri0"tes
1 Car &urchase +ptions
2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet Garnett
/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10 1
4 )i$etime 10 10 3 3
Car"on )o5 Me!ium )o5 Me!ium Me!ium 6igh 6igh
3
7 Cost8 Thousan!s o$ Dollars
)i$etime8 -stimate! 9ears
: Car"on8 /)e;el Test *ummary
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
8/49
8Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! : Dominated *tion
1 Car &urchase +ptions
2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet Garnett
/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10 1
4 )i$etime 10 10 3 3
Car"on )o5 Me!ium )o5 Me!ium 6igh 6igh 6igh
3
7 Cost8 Thousan!s o$ Dollars
)i$etime8 -stimate! 9ears
: Car"on8 /)e;el Test *ummary
Garnett costs more than the Delta, has the same li'etime and has ahigher *oll"tion rating? it is th"s (dominated+ and can 0e eliminated
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
9/49
9Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! 3: Monetary E5"i%alents
1 Car &urchase +ptions2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet
/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10
4 )i$etime 2 2 1 1 0 0
Car"on 3 4 3 4 0 0
3 Cost 12 12 : : 12 10
7
Cost Thousan!
: )i$etime 3 years < 0, each a!!itional year < =00
10 Car"on 6igh < 0, Me!ium < =4,000, )o5 < =3,000
We gi%e i'etime and oll"tion e(ui;alent negati;e costs indollars in order to make them directly com*ara0le to Cost.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
10/49
10Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! 3: Monetary E5"i%alents
Medi"m *rice, medi"m li'e and lo or medi"m *oll"tion make eitherthe Cr"iser or Delta the 0est choice on a least cost 0asis
1 Car &urchase Alternati;es2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet
/ Cost 20 1 13 14 12 10
4 )i$etime 2 2 1 1 0 0
Car"on 3 4 3 4 0 0
3 -(> Cost 12 12 : : 12 107
Cost Thousan!
: )i$etime 3 years < 0, each a!!itional year < =00
10 Car"on 6igh < 0, Me!ium < =4,000, )o5 < =3,000
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
11/49
11Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! @: Utility Meas"re
Utility =- to 1>
Cost: U=A-> B 1, U=A-,---> B -.? linear i'etime: U=- years> B -, U=1- years> B 1? linear Car0on: U=igh> B -, U=Medi"m> B -.8, U=o> B 1?
1
00? 20?10?
Cost
@tility
1
0 0 10
)i$etime
@tility
)o5 6ighMe!
Car"on
$he Utility meas"re *"ts the %ario"s attri0"tes on an e(ui;alent ;alue0asis.
0>
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
12/49
12Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! @: Utility and Weight
Utility =- to 1>
Cost: U=A-> B 1, U=A-,---> B -.? linear i'etime: U= years> B -, U=1- years> B 1? linear
Car0on: U=igh> B -, U=Medi"m> B -.8, U=o> B 1? non6linear
Weight =- to 1> Cost B -.#- i'etime B -.1#
Car0on B -.3#
S"m B 1.-- =!lays>
@tilitymeas"res the amount of satisfactionassociated ith each attri0"te.Weightmeas"res the relative importanceo' each attri0"te 'or total satis'action.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
13/49
13Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! #: Weighted M"lti6!ttri0"te Utility
1 Car &urchase Alternati;es
2 Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet
/ Cost 0>20 0>/0 0>/: 0>42 0> 0>30
4 )i$etime 1>00 1>00 0>0 0>0 0>30 0>30
Car"on 1>00 0>0 1>00 0>0 0>00 0>00
3 Weighte! MA@ 0>30 0> 0>37 0>31 0>/7 0>/:
7 Weighte! MA@ @CarB < 5Cost@Cost= 5)i$e@)i$e= 5&oll@&oll
Weights 51= 52= 5/< 1
Weighted M!U takes into acco"nt 0oth the %al"e and im*ortance o' decisionattri0"tes. Using this criterion, the Cr"iser emerges as the o*tim"m choice.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
14/49
14Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
M!U! : Sensiti%ity
Ne5 Weights
Cost B -.8- =%. -.#-> i'etime B -.1- =%. -.1#> Car0on B -.1- =%. -.3#>
Ne5 'esult
igh relati%e eight makes Cost dominate the analysis. Sensiti%ity tests canhel* determine on hich s*eci'ic attri0"tes an analysis sho"ld 'oc"s
Car &urchase Alternati;es
Attri"ute Alta ull!og Cruiser Delta -gret .leet
Cost 0>20 0>/0 0>/: 0>42 0> 0>30
)i$etime 1>00 1>00 0>0 0>0 0>30 0>30
Car"on 1>00 0>0 1>00 0>0 0>00 0>00
*umme! @tility 2>20 2>10 2>1: 2>02 1>1 1>20
Weighte! @tility 0>/3 0>42 0>4: 0>0 0>0 0>4
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
15/49
15Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decisions With ro0a0ilistic "tcomes
Conditions Se%eral !lternati%es ro0a0ilistic "tcomes and Conse5"ences
*timal Choice !mong !lternati%es
$y*ical Decision Criterion Minim"m Expected Cost
Ma7im"m Expected
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
16/49
16Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Con%entional Decision $ree1
1
rom .smartdra.com, --3
This Decision Tree has no82 'elati;e Ealues2 Negati;e +utcomes or Costs2 @ncertainties
an! as a result it is useless $ormeaning$ul !ecision making
http://www.smartdraw.com/http://www.smartdraw.com/ -
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
17/49
17Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$o* e%el Decision Making: resident ;"sh
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
18/49
18Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$o* e%el Decision Making: resident 0ama
Obama personally reenergized the hunt (for Osama binLaden)He began pushing his national security team to come upwith creative, new approaches to the manhunt, and once theintelligence community received its first big brea, Obama andhis team pursued a data!driven review of their options that
would have made "omney proud# $he final decision to launchthe assault was not a cavalier roll of the dice, it was acalculated ris baced up by one of the most elaborate andmeticulous intelligence operations in %merican history#&
Daniel laidman, $he ort"nate neHeseek, Ho%em0er 1I, -1
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
19/49
19Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree 1: )nitial *tions
Ne5 &ro!uctDe;elopment
mpro;e
usiness
mpro;ement in-Fisting usiness
Decision
@ncertainty
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
20/49
20Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree : Secondary *tions
Ne5 &ro!uct
usinessmpro;ement
.ull De;elopment
.ast De;elopment
More A!;ertising
etter *er;ice
mpro;e
usiness
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
21/49
21Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree 3: Uncertain Conse5"ences
Ne5 &ro!uct
.ull De;elopment
.ast De;elopment
More A!;ertising
etter *er;ice
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
usinessmpro;ement
mpro;e
usiness
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
22/49
22Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree @: Estimated "tcomes =A>
Ne5 &ro!uct
.ull De;elopment
.ast De;elopment
More A!;ertising
etter *er;ice
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
*uccess
.ailure
ene$it Cost
40? 200?B
0? 200?B
40? 100?B
0? 100?B
20? 7?B
2? 7?B
/00? 7?B
20? 0?B
usinessmpro;ement
We estimate the ;ene'it and Cost o' each *ossi0le o"tcome
mpro;e
usiness
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
23/49
23Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree #: Estimated ro0a0ilities =>
Ne5 &ro!uct
.ull De;elopment
.ast De;elopment
More A!;ertising
etter *er;ice
&*B < 0>:0
&.B < 0>10
&*B < 0>7
&.B < 0>2
&*B < 0>0
&.B < 0>20
&*B < 0>30
&.B < 0>40
ene$it Cost
40? 200?B
0? 200?B
40? 100?B
0? 100?B
20? 7?B
2? 7?B
/00? 0?B
20? 0?B
usinessmpro;ement
We estimate the *ro0a0ility or likelihood that each *ossi0le o"tcome ill occ"r
mpro;e
usiness
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
24/49
24Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree : Het
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
25/49
25Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree K: E7*ected
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
26/49
26Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree K: Selected *tion
Ne5 &ro!uct
.ull De;elopment
.ast De;elopment
More A!;ertising
etter *er;ice
&*B < 0>:0
&.B < 0>10
&*B < 0>7
&.B < 0>2
&*B < 0>0
&.B < 0>20
&*B < 0>30
&.B < 0>40
Net Ealue
20?
10?B
/0?
100?B
17?
0?B
20?
/0?B
-Fpecte!Ealue
210?
2/?
1/0?
1/?
$he selected decision has tracea"ilityand accounta"ilityas (0ranch+ in tree
mpro;e
usiness
usinessmpro;ement
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
27/49
27Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision $ree 8: J =>=Utility o' ail"re>
M!U1
M!U8
M!UK
M!U
M!U#
M!U@
M!U3
M!U
EU"ll
EUast
EU!ds
EUSer%eusinessmpro;ement
mpro;e
usiness
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
28/49
28Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
S"mmary
Chose Meaning'"l
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
29/49
29Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
E7am*le o' ;iases: Estimating Deaths er Near
&are 0"t highly*"0licied e%entsare o%erestimated
Common 0"t lessindi%id"alied e%entsare "nderestimated
rom ;ar"ch ischho'' et al, (!cce*ta0le &isk,+ Cam0ridge Uni%ersity ress, 1I81
&esearchers ha%e st"died a %ariety o' other 0iases that can a''ect therationality o' decisions made on the 0asis o' commonly "sed he"ristics
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
30/49
30Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
E7am*le o' !**lications
as"it Decision $ree !nalysis
Martha Steart Ethical !nalysis
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
31/49
31Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
as"it Decision $ree !nalysisO
&ange o' "tcomes
Use !nalysis 'or oints to )n%estigate
PairL Settlement
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
32/49
32Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Martha Steart Decision oint
MarthaLs 0rokerLs assistant calls her hile she is on %acation in Me7icoand tells her that inside oners are ra*idly selling all their )mClone stock
Whatto !o#
6ol! My *tock
*a;e Money)ook *mart
)ose Money)ook *tupi!
*ell My *tock
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
33/49
33Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Martha Steart Makes )nt"iti%e Decision
6ol! My *tock
*a;e Money)ook *mart
)ose Money)ook *tupi!
*ell My *tock
Martha Steart decides to sell on 0asis o' *otential (inside in'ormation.+
SEC in%estigates, Martha lies to them and is *rosec"ted, inds "* in 9ail.
Whatto !o#
Image from http://tubegator.com/funpic/martha_jailbird.jpg
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
34/49
34Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Martha Steart Makes !nalytical Decision
*uccess &::
.ailure &01
*uccess &0
.ailure &< 0>0
ene$it Cost Net -E
0? 0?B 0?
0? 2B 2B
0? 0?B 0?B
20MB
0?B 6ol! My *tock
*ell My *tock
Whatto !o#
Martha Steart does a (0ack o' the en%elo*e+ analysis, sees the 0ig di''erence
in E7*ected
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
35/49
35Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Martha Steart Makes Ethical Decision
Martha Steart does an Pethical a"ditL and recognies that it is unethical'or her to sell on s"s*ected inside in'ormation, e%en i' it might 0e legal.
She holds her stock, loses momentarily, 0"t again li%es ha**ily e%er a'ter.
*ell My *tock
6ol! My *tock
Whatto !o#
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
36/49
36Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
!n EthicistLsDilemma
;ad decisions, e%en 0ad ethicaldecisions, may not all ha%e 0adconse5"ences. Martha says:
() canLt e%en remem0er hat )as con%icted 'or.+
Did Martha and the !merican0"siness comm"nity learn
anything 'rom this case history$he recent 'inancial crisis ca"sed
0y ram*ant lying, cheating andstealing in the mortgage market
s"ggests that it didnLt.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
37/49
37Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
;"t $here May 0e Q"stice !'ter !ll
os !ngeles $imes, Decem0er #, -1-
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
38/49
38Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
S"mmary: Ethics in Decision Making
$he (Controlling actor+
E.g. (Ethics tr"m*s economics+ (We donLt do thatR+ (We ha%e to do thisR+
!nother ;ene'it and Cost actor ersonal, rganiational or Societal
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
39/49
39Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Gro"* Decision Making
! Common rocess $oday
Decision Gro"*s !re: "ong #tandingorAd hoc
Generally $ulti%&isciplinary
"ocalor 'emote
Advisoryor (inal
$he Decision Making roced"re )s: )nstructured and )naided
Str"ct"red
!nalytical =M!U!, decision tree>
!nother Methodology Str"ct"red and !ided
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
40/49
40Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Unstr"ct"red Decision Gro"* roced"re
"rd"e Uni%ersity, ersonnel ;rie'ing, --#
E%ol%ing Sol"tion.May0e.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
41/49
41Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Early Gro"* Decision !nalysis !id
Gro"* Decision !id, erce*tronics, 1I8-
Computer Ai!e!82&$ artici*ation2$ree Constr"ction
2
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
42/49
42Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
!ided %s Unaided $eam !cti%ities
Acti;ity Ai!e! Groups @nai!e! Groups
+"Hecti;es De$inition I 3I
n$ormation -Fchange 14I /7I
Action Generation 23I 4I
Ealue -stimation 21I 4I
&ro"a"ility -stimation 7I 0>:I
Attri"ute! Weighting 10I 1>0I
Con$lict 'esolution 11I 0>0I
!ided gro"*s s*read their time more e%enly o%er analytical decision acti%ities.
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
43/49
43Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
2COA Evaluation2COA Selection2Sensitivities
#. Ena0les e%al"ation andcom*arison o' C! o*tions
. ighlights decision6rele%ant in'ormation
K. ro%ides distinctdecision *rod"cts
@. romotes de%elo*mento' m"lti*le C! o*tions
State6o'6the6!rt Decision S"**ort System
Diagram co"rtesy erce*tronics Sol"tions, )nc.
Decision n$rastructure $or Colla"orati;e &lanning
. rganies rele%antsit"ational in'ormation
3. ighlights / resol%essit"ational data con'licts
1. ro%ides a commonanalytical 'rameork.
'
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
44/49
44Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
)n'l"ence Diagram &e*resentation! sim*le )n'l"ence Diagram
art o' an )n'l"ence Diagram "sed 'or mission*lanning: $he o*tional tasks are on the le't, the
o"tcomes they in'l"ence and the sit"ation'actors a''ecting those o"tcomes are in themiddle, and the end state "tility is on the right
)n'l"ence Diagrams are an e''icient ay to re*resent large Decision $rees
D i i M ki U d St
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
45/49
45Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Decision Making Under Stress
$he ca"ses o' stress !ssessment that task demands may e7ceed *ersonal ca*acity &ealiation that serio"sly 0ad o"tcomes may occ"r
$he e''ects o' stress on decision making Harroed attention lea%es less ca*acity 'or *ro0lem sol%ing
Sim*li'ied strategies red"ce the set o' o*tions considered
Decisions are h"rried to relie%e the stress e''ects
Strategies 'or mitigating the e''ects o' stress &ecognie the stress le%el
E7*ect and "nderstand the *sycho6*hysiological e''ects
De*end more on str"ct"red, 'amiliar *roced"res earn to "se the stress reaction energy *rod"cti%ely
D ti th D i i
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
46/49
46Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
Doc"menting the Decision rocess
E7ec"ti%e S"mmary State the ro0lem S"mmarie the Methodology Gi%e the Concl"sions
!**roach "tline 09ecti%es, Method / Meas"res Descri0e ;ene'its and imitations
&es"lts H"merical Data and ;ack"* &ecommendations and &easoning
!**ro*riate ormats &e*ort or Memorand"m ormal or )n'ormal ;rie'ing 1#63- Second (Ele%ator itch+
$he *"r*ose is recommendation, 9"sti'ication and acco"nta0ility.
$h D i i M t i
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
47/49
47Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
$he Decision Matri7
Goo! +utcome a! +utcome
Goo! Decision-Fpecte! @nlucky
a! Decision )ucky -Fpecte!
$he right thing in Engineering Decision Making is: )ncl"de ! o' the rele%ant 'actors Make ;ES$ USE o' the in'ormation at hand
Do the right thing enough times and the results take care of themselves.
!marillo Slim, US oker Cham*ion
! D H t !d itti t ; d D i i
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
48/49
48Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2014
! Danger: Hot !dmitting to ;ad Decisions
P&esol"tion o' Cogniti%e DissonanceL Hat"reLs (do"0lethink+ *re%ention Sel' 9"sti'ication makes alternati%es look
0etter aterthey are chosen
Good 'eat"res o' Cogniti%e Dissonance DonLt seat the small st"''
May hel* yo" learn a0o"t yo"rsel'
;ad 'eat"res o' Cogniti%e Dissonance olding on to 'alse *remises in the 'ace o'
later 'acts &ationaliing oneLs choices as the 0est
*ossi0le "nder the circ"mstance
Escalating rong co"rses o' action
!%oiding 0lame hen 0lame is d"e .ailing to learn $rom mistakesJ
i ' Mi t k i H t & ll H )d
-
7/23/2019 15 - Ethical Decision Making
49/49
earning 'rom Mistakes is Hot &eally a He )dea
A great manWhen he makes a mistake, he realizes it.Having realized it, he admits it.Having admitted it, he corrects it.
He considers those who point out his faults as his most benevolent teachers.
Lao Tzuld !aster" of #hina $ather of Taoism,%th#entur& '.#.