Download - 14.15 Prof.saji Gopinath
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
Critical Chain Approach toCritical Chain A
pproach to
Project Success
Project Success
Dr. Saji opinathDr. Saji opinath
IIM Ko!hi"o#eIIM Ko!hi"o#e
PMI- Project Management Conference 2012PMI- Project Management Conference 2012
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Moti$ationMoti$ation
% &he'e of &his conference&he'e of &his conference
(Project Mana)e'ent* a +ife s"ill
% hat is co''on in all our projects-hat is co''on in all our projects-
( &i'e o$errun
( Cost o$erruns-
% h-h-
% More i'portantlMore i'portantl
( h such o$erruns happen rarel in our /personalprojects
(A ne a of loo"in) at projects-
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PMI Stu#PMI St
u#
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hat #o e ant fro' Project Mana)e'ent -hat #o e ant fro' Pro
ject Mana)e'ent -
% elia3le on ti'e in full to 3u#)et #eli$er perfor'anceelia3le on ti'e in full to 3u#)et #eli$er perfor'ance
More re$enue, 'ore Profit, happ custo'ers
% A sta3le planA sta3le plan
More Pro#ucti$e use of resources
% Si'ple, o3jecti$e 'easures of Project pro)ress 4 project health statusSi'ple, o3jecti$e 'easures of Project pro)ress 4 project health status
Shorter 'eetin)s, 3etter infor'e#sta"ehol#ers * less aste, 'ore pro#ucti$it
% Clear si)nals for hen correcti$e action is *Clear si)nals for hen correcti$e action is * an# is notan# is not* necessar* necessar
5etter #irecte# reco$er efforts * less aste,
'ore pro#ucti$it
% Direction for on)oin) i'pro$e'ent effortsDirection for on)oin) i'pro$e'ent efforts
&he future3rin)s 'ore re$enue, 'ore profit, happier
custo'ers than the present
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An# hat e nor'all )et66An# hat e nor'all
)et66
% elia3le on ti'e in full to 3u#)et #eli$er perfor'ance -A continuous stru))le ith ti'e, cost an# scope -
% A sta3le plan
epeate# resche#ulin) -
% Si'ple, o3jecti$e 'easures of Project pro)ress -
Clarit at the start an# en#, thic" fo) in 3eteen -
% Measures of Project health status -Su3jecti$e assess'ents co'poun#e# 3 hu'an factors -
% Clear si)nals for hen correcti$e action is * an# is not *necessar -
Inter$enin) too 'uch too earl, an# too little too late -
% Direction for on)oin) i'pro$e'ent efforts -7e8ll i'pro$e our 'etho#s hen thin)s )et 3etter7
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% Do our projects fail 3ecause of /3a# pannin)-Do our projects fail 3ecause of /3a# pannin)-
( is plannin)the 'ost i'portant PM S"ill-:
% Is the #elas happen #ue to /A Class ite's;Is the #elas happen #ue to /A Class ite's;
Acti$itiesActi$ities
% h #o our project finish hen it is on /Missionh #o our project finish hen it is on /Mission
Mo#e-Mo#e-
e$isitin) the 3eleifs
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% Classical Project Mana)e'entClassical Project Mana)e'ent( Perfor'ance = Increasin) Co'ple>it
( e*loo" at the fun#a'ental assu'ptions
% &echnical an# 5eha$ioral Di'ensions of Project&echnical an# 5eha$ioral Di'ensions of Project
Mana)e'entMana)e'ent
( h our projects are #elain)-
% e*thin"in) the a e 'ana)e our projectse*thin"in) the a e 'ana)e our projects
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h #o our Projects #ela-h #o our Projects #ela-
% &he ti'e esti'ates are too ti)ht&he ti'e esti'ates are too ti)ht
% &he chan)es in en$iron'ent is too #rastic&he chan)es in en$iron'ent is too #rastic
% &he interfacin) a)encies are inefficient&he interfacin) a)encies are inefficient
% It is i'possi3le to pre#ict the ti'e of co'pletionIt is i'possi3le to pre#ict the ti'e of co'pletion
of a ?or" pac"a)e@ acti$it:of a ?or" pac"a)e@ acti$it:
% thersthers
-B # ti t
j t # ti -
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Bo #o e esti'ate project #uration-Bo #o e esti'ateproject #uration-
% Past DataPast Data
% &op Don or 5otto' up approach&op Don or 5otto' up approach
% Cushions for uncertaintCushions for uncertaint
% Acti$it prece#ence netor" techniue:Acti$it prece#ence netor" techniue:
% Bo 'uch is the cushion ou pro$i#e--Bo 'uch is the cushion ou pro$i#e--
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Project DurationProject Duration
% hat is the effect-hat is the effect-
TheoryTheory
ActualActual
The effect is that the typical cushions you provide onThe effect is that the typical cushions you provide on
each activity is around 0-100!each activity is around 0-100!
" #" #
$ 20$ 20
%%
1212
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Con$entional Project Mana)e'entCon$entional Project Mana)e'ent
Task Time EstimatingTask Time Estimating
Take best guess at how long a task willTake best guess at how long a task willtaketake
Consider the efect o unknowns orConsider the efect o unknowns or
unplanned interruptionsunplanned interruptions
Add sucient saety to be able to deliverAdd sucient saety to be able to deliver
with 90 probabilitywith 90 probability
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0!"
0!#
0!$
0!%
&!0
0
Time
2! 0!
&0!
T0 T&0
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Pro3le's ith the con$entional project 'ana)e'ent techniuesPro3le's ith the con$entional project 'ana)e'ent techniues
% &hree 'echanis's that inflate ti'e esti'ates&hree 'echanis's that inflate ti'e esti'ates
( &he orst*case scenario
( A## safet ti'e to ensure project is on ti'e
( 5 inflatin) ori)inal ti'e to protect a)ainst a )lo3al cut
Median = 2 days Estimated = 5 days
Safety time =
3 days
Confidence
level 80-90%
0'$
0'"
0'2
0'1
1 2 " $ % #
Probability of
Comletin!
ro"ect #it$in
n&mber of
days
'&mber of days toComlete ro"ect
&o "eep project on sche#ule * $aria3ilit encoura)es
people to pa# in#i$i#ual acti$it ti'es ith safet ti'e.
50%
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(uffers on )ach Activity(uffers on )ach Activity
*hy after all these cushions project get delayed+*hy after all these cushions project get delayed+
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% &hree as to aste Safet ti'e&hree as to aste Safet ti'e( passin) on of pre$ious #elas
Depen#encies 3eteen acti$ities cause #elas to accu'ulateDepen#encies 3eteen acti$ities cause #elas to accu'ulate
( stu#ent sn#ro'e
ait until the last 'inute to start a tas"ait until the last 'inute to start a tas"
( 'ulti*tas"in)
Multitas"in) cause# 3 li'ite# resources resource contention :Multitas"in) cause# 3 li'ite# resources resource contention :
% How the Safety Gets WastedHow the Safety Gets Wasted
( A##in) safet ti'e to resol$e the resource contention pro3le' #oesnot help
( e a## safet e$erhere an# then e aste it6
Con$entionalCon$entional SAFETY TIMESAFETY TIMEinflates project co'pletion ti'einflates project co'pletion ti'e
5ut.. A##in) safet ti'e to protectin) project o3jecti$es
sel#o' or"s
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,ue ,ate,ue ,ate
tart ,ate .inish ,ate ,ue ,atetart ,ate .inish ,ate ,ue ,ate
)ffect of .luctuation)ffect of .luctuation
5 h i l Di i f P j t i t5 h i l Di i f P
j t i t
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5eha$ioral Di'ension of Project n$iron'ent5eha$ioral Di'ension of Project n$iron'ent
% A##iti$e uleA##iti$e ule
( Co''it'ents of #uration an# total cost of a project are3ase# upon a##in) up the #uration an# cost of in#i$i#ual
tas"s
% Par"inson@s +aPar"inson@s +a
( or" e>pan#s to fill its ti'e
% E*Minute uleE*Minute ule
( It@s not ualit if it is finishe# 3efore ti'e is up
% Boc"e Stic" Sn#ro'e stu#ent sn#ro'e:Boc"e Stic" Sn#ro'e stu#ent sn#ro'e:( aitin) to start a tas" #ue to 'ore i'portant or" at han#
&he Conflicte on ct
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
&he Conflicte on ct
ManageManage
ProjectsProjects
uccessfullyuccessfully
ManageManage
ProjectsProjects
uccessfullyuccessfully
AvoidAvoid
Par/isnonsPar/isnons
aa
AvoidAvoid
Par/isnonsPar/isnons
aa
MinimiseMinimise
ProjectProject
eadtimeeadtime
MinimiseMinimise
ProjectProject
eadtimeeadtime chedulechedule
*ithout*ithout
safetysafety
chedulechedule
*ithout*ithout
safetysafety
Meet ProjectMeet Project
PromisePromise
Meet ProjectMeet Project
PromisePromise
ProvideProvide
.or.or
MurphyMurphy
ProvideProvide
.or.or
MurphyMurphy
chedulechedule
*ith*ith
A.)T3A.)T3
chedulechedule
*ith*ith
A.)T3A.)T3
ConCon
flictflict
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
a ut-a ut-
% Plan A * in$est our ener) in re#ucin) the e>tent ofPlan A * in$est our ener) in re#ucin) the e>tent of
the $aria3ilitFthe $aria3ilitF* Alloin) lon)er in Project plannin) sta)e for preparin) esti'atesAlloin) lon)er in Project plannin) sta)e for preparin) esti'ates
* &rainin) staff in esti'atin)&rainin) staff in esti'atin)
* Gse of for'al esti'atin) 'etho#sGse of for'al esti'atin) 'etho#s
* Measurin) pro)ress an# fee#in) results 3ac" into esti'atin) practiceMeasurin) pro)ress an# fee#in) results 3ac" into esti'atin) practice
* More #etaile# specificationsMore #etaile# specifications* +ess fle>i3ilit o$er chan)es to specifications+ess fle>i3ilit o$er chan)es to specifications
* &rainin) the staff 3etter in their jo3 content&rainin) the staff 3etter in their jo3 content
* Gsin) in#i$i#ual perfor'ance 'easures to i#entif poor perfor'ersGsin) in#i$i#ual perfor'ance 'easures to i#entif poor perfor'ers
* Keeping projects short ( ! "onths#$ %rea&ing 'arger nderta&ingsKeeping projects short ( ! "onths#$ %rea&ing 'arger nderta&ings
into se)era' short *rojectsinto se)era' short *rojects
Doin) this can help, 3ut #oesn8tDoin) this can help, 3ut #oesn8t sol$esol$ethe pro3le'the pro3le'
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
Plan 5 * Copin) 3eha$ioursPlan 5 * Copin) 3eha$iours
% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers fi)htfi)ht to 3e assi)ne# the 'ost $ia3le Projectsto 3e assi)ne# the 'ost $ia3le Projects
% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers fi)htfi)htfor the 3est stafffor the 3est staff
% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers fi)htfi)ht to "eep the Project scope #onto "eep the Project scope #on
% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers e>ploite>ploitchan)es in scope to un#ul e>ten#chan)es in scope to un#ul e>ten#
ti'elines an# 3u#)etsti'elines an# 3u#)ets
% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers uituitlon) Projects ell 3efore the #eli$er #atelon) Projects ell 3efore the #eli$er #ate% Project Mana)ersProject Mana)ers #isre)ar# tar)ets#isre)ar# tar)etsthe "no to 3e i'possi3lethe "no to 3e i'possi3le
% Staff or"Staff or" #ou3le shifts#ou3le shiftsin the final ee"s ; 'onthsin the final ee"s ; 'onths
% Du'pin) theDu'pin) the 3la'e3la'eelsehereelsehere
Doin) these 'a help theDoin) these 'a help the in#i$i#ual,in#i$i#ual,3ut not the3ut not the or)anisationor)anisation
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
e cane can re#ucere#uce$aria3ilit, 3ut e cannot$aria3ilit, 3ut e cannot eli'inateeli'inateit,it,
3ecause it is3ecause it is inherentinherentto the nature of a Projectto the nature of a Project
Plan CFPlan CF Approach the pro3le' in a #ifferent aApproach the pro3le' in a #ifferent a
e 'uste 'ust 'ana)e'ana)ethethe $aria3ilit$aria3ilitthat re'ainsthat re'ains
h t i th t-h t i th
t-
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hat is the a out-hat is the a out-
C iti l Ch i P j t M tC iti l Ch i P
j t M t
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Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
% A#aptation of Principles of &heor of constraintsA#aptation of Principles of &heor of constraints
%Applin) &C concepts to project 'ana)e'entApplin) &C concepts to project 'ana)e'ent( Critical Chain is a project 'ana)e'ent application of
the &heor of Constraints &C:
(Accor#in) to &C, the 'ain constraint in an project is
the ti'e ta"en for co'pletion of the +ritica' +hain
% Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
( Con$entional approach focuses on successful on*ti'e
co'pletion of each in#i$i#ual acti$itin a project( &C approach focuses on successful on*ti'e
co'pletion of the entire project
C iti l Ch i P j t M tC iti l Ch i P
j t M t
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Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
TheThe TOC philosophyTOC philosophyapplied to pro'ectapplied to pro'ect
management attempts to remove themanagement attempts to remove the
undesirable efects (late) over*budget) andundesirable efects (late) over*budget) and
under*perormance pro'ects+ by attackingunder*perormance pro'ects+ by attacking
individual measurements and uncertainty!individual measurements and uncertainty!
,hat is T-C .hilosophy/,hat is T-C .hilosophy/
&h f C t i t&h
f C t i t
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&heor of Constraints&heor of Constraints
A system improvement philosophy (asA system improvement philosophy (asopposed to a process improvementopposed to a process improvement
philosophy+philosophy+ -rganiations live or die as systems) not-rganiations live or die as systems) not
asas processesprocesses
1uccess or ailure is a unction o how well1uccess or ailure is a unction o how welldiferent component processesdiferent component processesinteractinteractwith one anotherwith one another
&heor of Constraints&he
or of Constraints
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&heor of Constraints&heor of Constraints
1ystems are analogous to chains) or1ystems are analogous to chains) or
networks o chainsnetworks o chains 2ike a chain) a system2ike a chain) a system @@s perormance iss perormance is
limited by the perormance o itslimited by the perormance o its
weakest linkweakest link
The weakest link is the systemThe weakest link is the system@@ss
constraintconstraint
&h f C t i t&he
or of Constraints
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&heor of Constraints&heor of Constraints
Another basic principle o T-CAnother basic principle o T-C
A large number o undesirable efects will becaused by a relatively small number o coredrivers
Eliminating a very ew core problems canresult in a huge improvement
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Bo e han#le $aria3ilit in Critical ChainBo e han#le $aria3ilit in Critical Chain
% e #o not 3uil# in an contin)enc at the &as" le$ele #o not 3uil# in an contin)enc at the &as" le$el
% e 'o$e all the contin)enc to the Project le$el * call this thee 'o$e all the contin)enc to the Project le$el * call this the
Co'pletion 5ufferCo'pletion 5uffer
In#i$i#ual&as"scan no 3e late ithout affectin) the
co'pletion #ate of the Project
&he Project #ue #ate is protecte# as lon) as
the accu'ulate# lateness alon) an onechain is less than the co'pletion 3uffer
3ow does all this relate to pro'ects/3ow does all this relate to pro'ects/
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hat #ifference #oes this 'a"e to our pro3a3ilit of 3ein) late -hat #ifference #oes this 'a"e to our pro3a3ilit of 3ein) late -
Gn#er 8nor'al8 practice, ifGn#er 8nor'al8 practice, if any tas&any tas& isis later thanlater than its contin)encits contin)enc
alloancealloance, e ha$e a pro3le', e ha$e a pro3le'
Gn#er Critical Chain, e onl ha$e a pro3le' if theGn#er Critical Chain, e onl ha$e a pro3le' if the tota'tota'latenesslatenesse>cee#s the total contin)ence>cee#s the total contin)enc
&his secon# con#ition is&his secon# con#ition is 'uch less li"el'uch less li"elthan the firstthan the first H +a of a$era)esH +a of a$era)es
; Central li'it theore'; Central li'it theore'an#an# increasin)lincreasin)lso as the nu'3er of tas"sso as the nu'3er of tas"s
increasesincreases
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chai
n Project Mana)e'ent
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Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
4ncertainty always present4ncertainty always present ((it doesnit doesn@@t go awayt go away
Take the saety out o each o the critical path tasksTake the saety out o each o the critical path tasks
and lump them into a saety net at the end o theand lump them into a saety net at the end o the
pro'ectpro'ect
5dentiy constraints along the path and set up5dentiy constraints along the path and set up
bufers in ront o tasks that can sufer rom thebufers in ront o tasks that can sufer rom the
constraint (constraints 6 time and resources+constraint (constraints 6 time and resources+
Allow tasks to start when predecessors areAllow tasks to start when predecessors are
completed and resources are availablecompleted and resources are available
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4evisiting activities4evisiting activities
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Poer of AggregationPoer of Aggregation
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e'o$e safet ti'e fro' in#i$i#ual acti$itiese'o$e safet ti'e fro' in#i$i#ual acti$ities
Jo3
Jo3 2
Jo3 E
Jo3 1
Con$entional Project Sche#ule &as" 3ufferssafet ti'e: are hi##en
ithin in#i$i#ual acti$ities
Critical Chain Sche#ule
5uffers are poole#,
an# 'a#e e>plicit
*roject ,ffer,
% Safet 3uffersSafet 3uffers
% Poole# 3uffersPoole# 3uffers
Project 5uffer is safety time added to the end of the critical chain
to protect the completion date of the project'
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% ee#in) 3uffer on the non*critical pathee#in) 3uffer on the non*critical path
ee#in) 5ufferProject 5uffer
If Slac" re'ains,
then sche#ule as
late as possi3le
Critical Chain
(eedin!
at$
.eeding 5uffers are designed to protect the critical chain from
delays on non-critical paths
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% esource 3uffersesource 3uffers
( a a"eup call to alert resources to 3e rea# to or" on
critical tas"s
( Sche#ule# i#le ti'e can pro$i#e 3etter info a3out resource@sa$aila3ilit capacit:
esource
5uffers
Critical Chain
Project
5uffer
ee#in)
5uffer
A'ert W&r A
A'ert W&r ,
A'ert W&r +
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chai
n Project Mana)e'ent
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Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
Critical ChainCritical Chain* set o tasks which determines overall* set o tasks which determines overallpro'ect duration) taking into accountpro'ect duration) taking into account both precedence andboth precedence and
resource dependencies7resource dependencies7improvement along Critical Chain willimprovement along Critical Chain will
likely result in improvements to the pro'ect as a whole7likely result in improvements to the pro'ect as a whole7
improvements elsewhere will notimprovements elsewhere will not
Project buferProject bufer* protects pro'ect commitment dates rom* protects pro'ect commitment dates rom8uctuations on the Critical Chain8uctuations on the Critical Chain
Feeding buferFeeding bufer* protects Critical Chain rom 8uctuations* protects Critical Chain rom 8uctuationson eeding tasks7 provides the possibility or Critical Chainon eeding tasks7 provides the possibility or Critical Chain
tasks to start earlytasks to start early
Resource buferResource bufer* protects the Critical Chain rom lack o* protects the Critical Chain rom lack o
availability o reuired resources7 also provides the possibilityavailability o reuired resources7 also provides the possibilityor Critical Chain tasks to start earlyor Critical Chain tasks to start early
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chai
n Project Mana)e'ent
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Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
2 " $
1 2 " $ Project (uffer
Tas/ 1
-riginal Critical .ath
-riginal Critical .ath with:ufer
(1aety removed rom individualtasks+
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chai
n Project Mana)e'ent
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
About :ufersAbout :ufers
5dentiy the points at which to place pro'ect) eeding)and resource bufers
:ufer sies determined appro;imately) based eitheron average task duration estimates) or acombination o average and worst*case duration
estimates 5ndividual bufer sies can be ad'usted based onintuitive assessment o risk
:ufer insertion may cause the Critical Chain) andhence the pro'ect completion date) to be pushedlater
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chai
n Project Mana)e'ent
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
Critical Chain Project Mana)e'entCritical Chain Project Mana)e'ent
The Critical Chain approach to schedulingThe Critical Chain approach to scheduling
helps minimie pro'ect duration and ,5.)helps minimie pro'ect duration and ,5.)
delay investment as ar as possible) anddelay investment as ar as possible) and
ma;imie the chance o on*timema;imie the chance o on*time
completioncompletion
+ast or#+ast or#
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Conference 2012 PMI KeralaConference 2012 PMI Kerala June 09, 2012June 09, 2012
+ast or#+ast or#
% &he #e$elop'ent of ne project 'ana)e'ent&he #e$elop'ent of ne project 'ana)e'ent
techniues ha$e not re#uce# uncertainttechniues ha$e not re#uce# uncertaint
% Bence e nee# as toBence e nee# as to 'ana)e'ana)ean#an# not a$oi#not a$oi#
uncertaintuncertaint
% Critical Chain Mana)e'ent is a a to achie$eCritical Chain Mana)e'ent is a a to achie$e
thisthis
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saji-ii"&.ac.in / saji.gopinath-yahoo.insaji-ii"&.ac.in / saji.gopinath-yahoo.in
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