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OKL REGRESON MODEL,ANOA ABLOS,
MARSLERLE REGRESONMLEMES,REGRESON
KASAILARININ ORM
1Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
OKL REGRESON MODEL
E . E , .
. B . B , . B " ( )" .
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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..
;
0+11+22+++0++
EKK . .
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
EKK :
(2 3) ()
+2+3+ . B
B
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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K :
. A , . F .(=1,2,3)
YYy
i XXx ii=
=
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.. R
R2 . B , . G R2 ; (,,..,
)
7Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
D R2: R2
. R2
. B R2 .( R2 )
: : (+)
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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..
1
().
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
.. M
. B .
R , ,
. B .
G .
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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ANOA ABLOS R
.
SS:
SSE:
SSR:
= )(2
YYiSST
=
)(
^ 2
YY iiSSE
YYYYn
ii
SSR2
22
^^
)( == 11Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEYDo.Dr.F.GKGZ
..
KaynakKaynak
(sov)(sov)
SerbestlikSerbestlik
derecesi(sderecesi(s
d veya df)d veya df)
SSSS MSMS FF
ModelModel
(regresyo(regresyo
n)n)
22--1=11=1 SSRSSR MSR=MSR=
SSR/2SSR/2--11
MSR/MSMSR/MSEE
ArtkArtk nn--22 SSESSE MSE=MSE=
SSE/nSSE/n--22
ToplamToplam nn--11 SSTSST
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.. A F
() .
A : R2=SSR/SS
R2
.
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
M R :
R . B .
R =0+1+ (=1,2,,) .
B . O
:
1=0+11+12=0+12+2
...
...
=0+1+ 14Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEYDo.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.. B
:
=
Y
Y
Y
n
Y
...
...2
1
=aa
1
0
=
X
X
X
n
X
1
......
......
1
1
2
1
=
e
e
e
n
e
...
...2
1
eXY +=
15Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
: , EKK ;
M 2 1 . B 0, 1 .B .
( ) YXXX'
1^
'
=
^
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.. A
:
B ;
^^
XY =
Ye Y^^
=
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
R K :
.
1. =0+11+++. B 0 , , , , . (=1,2,,)
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.. 0 ( =0)
.
.
K Q =100.5P+0.7 .(P : , :, Q
:) ( L)
0=10:K 10 L .
1=0.5: K
1 L 0.5 L .2=0.7: K 1
L 0.7 L.
19Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
..
2. %
: =0+11+++.
% 0 % .
% () %1 % .
E , M , P % , : 0.+0.20.4+0.
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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. : 0=0.9: (M, , P)
%0.9 .
: 1=0.2: % %1 %0.2 .
2= 0.4 : ???
3= 0.8 : ???
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
RNEK GLAMA
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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A ,
. .
ii XXii YYii11 163163 165165
22 164164 167167
33 170170 169169
44 172172 170170
55 165165 164164
66 167167 168168
77 168168 171171
88 166166 16316323
Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEYDo.Dr.F.GKGZ
S:
) R .
) 0,1, .
) 169 ().
) A .
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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: ()
0+1+ =8 =1,2,,8
1=0+11+1
8=0+18+8
=
163...
167
165
Y
=
1661......
1641
1631
X
=
a
a
1
0
=
e
ee
e
8
2
1
...
eXY +=25
Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEYDo.Dr.F.GKGZ
: ()
( ) YXXX'
1^
'
=
=
=
XXX
X
XX
XXXX
ii
iX 2
8
2
1
821
' 8
1
......
1
1
...
1...11
( )( )
=
=
0154.05723.2
5723.23699.429
88
1'2
22
1
XXX
XXXX
i
ii
i i
=
=
=
223155
1337
......
1...11
8
2
1
821
'
YXY
Y
YY
XXXX
ii
iY
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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.( )
==
6647.0
1965.56' '1
^
YXXX
XXaaY iii 6647.01965.5610^^^
+=+=
=
==
55.166
...
54.167
6647.0
1965.56
1661
......
1631^^
XY
002.0
55.3
...
43.0^^^
=
== eYe iY27
Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEYDo.Dr.F.GKGZ
M: ()
= 169
:
.53.1686647.01965.56^
cmXY +=
79.28^
21.30^
59
125.16713378
11
22
2
22
===
==
=
===
SSESSTni
SSR
iSSE
nSST
nY
YY
e
YY
Y
i
i
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Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
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A :KaynakKaynak SdSd SSSS MSMS FF
ModelModel 22--1=11=1 28.7928.79 28.79/128.79/1 28.79/5.028.79/5.03535
ArtkArtk 88--2=62=6 30.2130.21 30.21/630.21/6
ToplamToplam 88--1=71=7 5959
R2=SSR/SS=0.48796 %49 .
B 1 0.6647 . A 56.1965 .
29Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ
BAARILAR
30Prof.Dr.A.KARACABEY
Do.Dr.F.GKGZ