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Statistics in Action
New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Sonia Petrie – Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand
Overview
• Inventory requirements• New Zealand’s national inventory system• Emissions profile• Current activity data • Future data needs
National greenhouse gas inventories
• Reporting emissions and removals across six sectors
• Annual inventory submission due 15 April
– Strict deadline
– Use common reporting format software and tables
– Use IPCC guidelines and good practice guidance
IPCC good practice principles
Transparency
Accuracy
Completeness
Consistency
Comparability
National System
• National systems under Article 5 of Kyoto Protocol
– Mandatory
– Ensure capacity for timely performance
– Quality management including continuous improvement
New Zealand’s National System
• Ministry for the Environment - national entity with overall responsibility
– Climate Change Response Act (2002, revised 2008)
– National greenhouse gas inventories since mid 1990s
– Procedures for changes in methods and emission factors
– Distributed system
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UNFCCC Secretariat
MfE
MfEMED
Energy IP / Solvents Waste LULUCF Agriculture
MED MfE MfE MfE
Stats
NZ
MED ConsultMED Consult Stats
NZ
MfE Consult MfE MAF MAF Stats
NZ
Consult
International Inventory Compiler
National Inventory Compiler
CRF Data Input
Sector
Sectoral Expertise
Data Sources
MAF
Institutional and procedural arrangements for the compilation of New Zealand’s annual inventory
MAF
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Energy Industrialprocesses
Solvents Waste Agriculture
Gg
CO
2-e
qu
ival
ent
1990 Emissions 2006 Emissions
45.0%
24.4%
- 3.0%
15.9%
- 25.9%
New Zealand - growth in sectors
New Zealand - growth in gases
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
HFC's PFC's
Mt
CO
2 -
equ
ival
ent
1990 Emissions 2006 Emissions
43% 8 %
27 %
- 86% 7 %NA
CO2 CH4 N2O SF6
Activity Data
Energy• Liquid fuels: Delivery of Petroleum Fuels Survey• Solid fuels: Coal Sales Survey• Gaseous fuels: Gas fields to gas users• Biomass: Industry users
Industrial Processes• Direct from industry – voluntary reporting• Transparency versus confidentiality
Activity Data
Solid Waste• Periodic surveys on waste quantity & composition• National landfill census (2006/07) and audit
(2002)
Activity DataLand use, land use change and forestry• Present:
– National Exotic Forest Description Survey
– Land cover databases
– Research science important for establishing emission factors
• Future:
– Land use and carbon analysis system (LUCAS)
Kyoto Forest Plot Sites
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Example of 1 ha Land Use Mapping, from 1990 Landsat imagery
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Activity DataAgriculture• Statistics New Zealand agricultural production
census/surveys• Productivity data from government and industry• Combining accurate official statistics and research
science critical for agriculture sector
Agriculture Model
(each livestockclass separately)
Population characterization(birth, maturity, death)
Breeding status
Age
Monthly time step
Population characterization(birth, maturity, death)
Breeding status
Age
Monthly time step
Performance(eg, size, milk yield, growth rate
Energy requirement(Australian Feeding Stds)
Dietary composition(energy, protein, etc)
Monthly time step
Performance(eg, size, milk yield, growth rate
Energy requirement(Australian Feeding Stds)
Dietary composition(energy, protein, etc)
Monthly time step× CH4 conversion rate(Derived from SF6-tracer based estimates)
Sheep < 1yr: 5.1% GEI
Sheep > 1yr: 6.3% GEI
Dairy Cattle: 6.5% GEI
Beef Cattle: as above
Deer: 6.4% GEI
Population DMI per head
Total Population DMI
Population DMI per head
Total Population DMI
Sheep Dairy Cattle Beef Cattle Deer
Future data requirements
• Disaggregated data– Regional level ?– Farm type ?– Paddock scale ?
• Capturing mitigation technologies– Example: nitrification inhibitors
Disaggregation by region
Methane Nitrous oxide
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Colours on the map represent differing application dates - enabling real time recording of each application of eco-n.
Key Messages
• Voluntary reporting and official statistics backed up by legislation
• Good national picture of emissions• Creating a time series of data is critical for
climate change reporting• Challenge in obtaining data at disaggregated
level to capture mitigation