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1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development?
Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact @Ag4Impact
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Agriculture for Impact
www.ag4impact.org
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The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)
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Content
•The context: global challenges
•The role for agricultural development in food security
•Agriculture for Impact
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The Perfect Storm?
John Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID, 12th November 2009
Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
Water Increased demand 30% by 2030
(IFPRI)
FoodIncreased demand 50% by 2030
(FAO)
Climate Change
1. Increasing population
2. Increasing levels of urbanisation
3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty
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Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf
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Food price volatility
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Food price volatility
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A global food crisis
1.02 billion people are hungry
1 in 6 of the world’s population
(FAO, 2009)
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Hunger is on the rise
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Increased impact on developing countries
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World Food Programme hunger map
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Over 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total)
Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%
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Why does it matter?
• Food security underpins global security• Economic time bomb• Humanitarian imperative
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Food security underpins global security
The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA
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Economic time bomb
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Humanitarian imperative
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Food Security
“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.
(World Food Summit, 1996)
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Entitlements
Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being not enough food to eat
Amartya Sen,1982
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Four dimensions of food security
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GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture
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Lack of investment in agriculture
1980s:
17% of ODA
30% of World Bank lending
Mid 2000s:
4% of ODA
7% of World Bank lending
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EU overseas development assistance to agriculture
ODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Years
2007
$ U
S, m
illio
ns
DAC EU members to Africa DAC EU members to agriculture DAC EU to SSA agriculture
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African agriculture
• 80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)• 50% of the agricultural labour force is female• Cereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East
Asia.• Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of
arable land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)
• Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar, Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares of land under irrigation.
• Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka, Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca beetles can destroy crops.
.
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A continent of many different stories
‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)
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Delivering change
Looking for win-wins:• Increasing yields sustainably• Enabling access to markets• Political leadership
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Sustainable intensification
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Quality as well as quantity
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Access to markets
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Political leadership
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Agriculture for Impact
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The gap
Grassroots activity
High level rhetoric
Gap?
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Opportunities to influence
•CAADP•G8 : UK Presidency in 2013•G20 •EU 2014-2020•GROW Africa / WEF initiative
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Our focus
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Our activities
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How can we feed the world?
•Highly productive•Stable•Resilient•Equitable•Sustainable
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What is ‘successful’ scaling up?
Link to private sector?
www.weforum.org
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Beyond islands of happiness?
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What is scaling up?
Becoming large?
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What is scaling up?
Expanding impact?
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The Boss
Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)