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BIOL 300: BiostatisticsStatistical quotations
• There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies,
and statistics.
– Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain
Statistical quotations
• There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies,
and statistics.
– Benjamin Disraeli / Mark Twain
• It is easy to lie with statistics, but easier to
lie without them.
– Frederick Mosteller
Professor:
Dr. Luke Harmon
Department of Zoology
Office: 1370 Biosciences
Office Hours: 2 - 4 pm Mondays
(or after class)
e-mail: [email protected]
Course website
http://www.zoology.ubc.ca/~bio300/
• Lecture notes
• Textbook and Lab Manual
• Assignments and answers
• Contact information
Textbook
• Whitlock and Schluter, The analysis of
biological data
• Available in two installments at
CopieSmart, UBC Village
• Also available online
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JMP
• Optional statistical
software
• Used in labs
• Available in
bookstore
• 60-day trial version
on web:
• www.jmp.com
Evaluation
Final 50%
Mid-term 30%
Assignments (homework) 10%
Lab exam (final week of term) 10%
Examinations
• Midterm: Thursday October 19 in class
• Final exam: TBA
• Old exams will be posted on the website
Assignments
• Available on course web-page, announced
in class
• Due on Fridays at noon, at your TA’s office
(eight days after they are assigned)
• Bonus points for in-class quizzes and
activities
Lab
• Begins third week of term
(September 18- 22)
• Biol. Sci. room 2434
• Lab exam during final week of classes
• Book available at Copiesmart in the village
and online
Class Forum
• There will be a forum for discussion on the
web
• Discussion of lectures, labs, and homework
• More details available next week
STATISTICS PAIRINGS
• Credit given for only one of BIOL 300,
FRST 231, STAT 200, PSYC 218 or 366.
• These are paired with BIOL 300, but do not
count as requirements for Biology majors
and pre-reqs
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Introduction to statistics
Statistics - technology used to describe and
measure aspects of nature from samples
Statistics lets us quantify the uncertainty of
these measures
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/01/5/image_pop/l_015_04.html http://www.rit.edu/~rhrsbi/GalapagosPages/DarwinFinch.html
The history of statistics has its
roots in biology
Sir Francis Galton
Inventor of fingerprints,
study of heredity of quantitative traits
Regression & correlation
Also: efficacy of prayer,
attractiveness as function of
distance from London
Karl Pearson
Polymath-
Studied genetics
Correlation coefficient
!2 test
Standard deviation
Sir Ronald Fisher
The Genetical Theory of
Natural Selection
Founder of population genetics
Analysis of variance
likelihood
P-value
randomized experiments
multiple regression
etc., etc., etc.
Goals of statistics
• Estimation
– Infer an unknown quantity of a population
using sample data
• Hypothesis testing
– Differences among groups
– Relationships among variables
Statistics is also about good
scientific practice
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Introductory Puzzle
• How to protect bombers flying over enemy
territory?
• British Air Ministry - WWII
• Looked at distribution of bullet holes in
airplanes returning from bombing runs
http://digitalroam.typepad.com/digital_roam/2006/03/the_hole_story_.html
Results
• Where should more armor be added to the
airplanes?
• Explain your conclusion
Variable
• A variable is a characteristic measured on
individuals drawn from a population under
study.
• Data are measurements of one or more
variables made on a collection of
individuals.
Explanatory and response variables
We try to predict or explain a response
variable from an explanatory variable.
Mortality on the Titanic, as
predicted by sex
Populations and samples
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Populations <-> Parameters;
Samples <-> Estimates
Nomenclature
s"Standard
Deviation
s2"2Variance
µMean
Sample
Statistics
Population
Parameters
!
x
Precise Imprecise
Biased
Unbiased
Properties of a good sample
• Independent selection of individuals
• Random selection of individuals
• Sufficiently large
In a random sample, eachmember of a population hasan equal and independentchance of being selected.
Bias is a systematicdiscrepancy betweenestimates and the true
population characteristic.
A sample of convenience is acollection of individuals that
happen to be available at thetime.
Sampling error
• The difference between the estimate and
average value of the estimate
Population parameters areconstants whereas estimates
are random variables,changing from one randomsample to the next from the
same population.
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Larger samples on average will
have smaller sampling errorRead: Chapters 1 & 2