Leveraging National Communications to integrate climate policy into
development plans in Europe and CIS
Sub-regional workshop for GEF Focal Points Europe and CISDubrovnik, Croatia, 11-13 February 2009
Outline of Presentation
Summary of some key climate threats in the region
National Communications role
Integrating climate change into development priorities
Priorities in National Communications for GEF programming
UNDP-GEF Adaptation 3
Food Security
Poverty
Now 2020-50s 2100s5% rainfall decline in southern belt of ECIS per decade
40% of irrigation water demand not met in average year; increases to 70% in dry years and drought season (in south Macedonia)
Livelihoods affected by more droughts and crop failures
Significant decline in annual discharge and runoff formation across the region
Irrigation will begin to fail in Central Asia;spring yield will decrease at least 27%
Regional and sub-national disparities and increased rural poverty
Surface water resources in most basins of Kazakhstan will decrease 9-29%
Production of water-intensive crops (e.g. cotton) in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will fail
Poor population impacted by more frequent climate-related disasters
Water
Climate change poses serious risks in the region
UNDP-GEF Adaptation 4
Sea level
Economy
Now 2020-50s 2100sDramatic glacier retreats already observed in Pamir, Ala-Too and Caucasus
Frequency and intensity of floods on Danube increased
Rise in Black Sea level from previous century is detected at a rate of 2.5mm/yr
~3-8% GDP loss in South East Europe and Central Asia
In Tajikistan alone, thousands of glaciers will disappear by 2050
Glacial lake outbursts will intensify flood-related disasters
Absolute increment of sea level rise on the Georgian coast of Black will be 0.2m
Economic losses from floods, landslides and droughts will increase across the region
Contribution to runoff formation will fall 15-30% as result of snow melt in parts of Uzbekistan
Fergana Valley foothills will become intensive mudslide zones
Low-lying coastal areas of the Black Sea and Adriatic inundated ~20%
Economic losses from damage to coastal infrastructure and settlements
Disasters
Climate change poses serious risks in the region
Historic mortality from floods highest in Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Economic losses from flooding as proportion of GDP historically highest in Turkey, Western Kazakhstan, parts of Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Serbia, Belarus, Romania, Albania, and Macedonia
Human and economic losses
Armenia: water reserves in snow have decreased 5-10%
Azerbaijan: seasonal snow line has risen from 1,300-1,500m to 1,800-2,000m; subsequently, water resources will be reduced by 5.7–7.7km3
Macedonia: average discharge will decrease by 10-20% in next 50 years
Kazakhstan: surface water resources in most basins will fall 9-29% in 50-100 years
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan: water resources must dramatically increase to sustain current level of productivity of cotton and cereals (up to 70%).
Albania: total runoff formation already down 10%; will decrease 30% by mid-century
Water Stress
Initial National Communications was important in Initial National Communications was important in bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but bringing attention to CC issues in countries, but had some limitations:had some limitations:
• Focused on Convention reporting – strategic Focused on Convention reporting – strategic opportunities opportunities for feeding into national development not fully for feeding into national development not fully exploitedexploited
• Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation Conducted by technical experts, but limited participation of of stakeholders from public and private sectorsstakeholders from public and private sectors
• Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to Investigation academic in nature – limited relevance to policy policy decision (for instance for climate risk managementdecision (for instance for climate risk management))
Second National Communications (SNC): A second opportunity
Transforming the NC from a mere reporting process to a strategic and policy support tool
Producing the SNC document not the end point
SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate:SNC should be a vehicle to facilitate:
– Institutionalization of climate change Institutionalization of climate change responsesresponses
– Production of knowledge and information on Production of knowledge and information on the basis of national priorities the basis of national priorities
– Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address Mechanism for a policy dialogue to address climate change concernsclimate change concerns
– Basis for mainstreaming climate change into Basis for mainstreaming climate change into national/sectoral planning processes and national/sectoral planning processes and development prioritiesdevelopment priorities
Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in Develop a strategy to address policy relevant issues in
the different SNC componentsthe different SNC components
Establish and consolidate a system for Establish and consolidate a system for institutional institutional coordination and political buy-incoordination and political buy-in
Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the Promote policy-oriented studies to expand the traditional technical assessmenttraditional technical assessment
Guide technical teams to leverage the results of Guide technical teams to leverage the results of mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for mitigation and Vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) studies for project formulation and implementation, as well as fundraisingproject formulation and implementation, as well as fundraising
Making SNC more policy-relevant
• Objective of SNC should seek to facilitate policy changes
• Outcomes of the SNC process to highlight the policy strategies in the short and long terms
• SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening SNC process should identify opportunities for strengthening technical and institutional capacitiestechnical and institutional capacities
Ways to facilitate the integration of the NC process into government agendas – sustainability and appropriation
Scope of workScope of workScope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with Scope of current or future NCs may need to be revisited to ensure linkage with development planningdevelopment planning
• Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development Ensuring consistency of V&A and mitigation with development needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to needs (i.e., SNC to focus on assessments conducive to influence decision making)influence decision making)
• Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy Ensuring scope of V&A and mitigation studies addresses policy questionsquestions
• Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and Assessing practices and trends that enhance vulnerability and increase GHG emissions increase GHG emissions
• Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to Conversely, studies may be driven by policy changes needs to address both development and adaptation/mitigationaddress both development and adaptation/mitigation
Engaging StakeholdersEngaging StakeholdersDesign a strategy for stakeholders engagement through Design a strategy for stakeholders engagement through the SNC process and beyondthe SNC process and beyond
• Involve and seek inputs from relevant government institutionsInvolve and seek inputs from relevant government institutions
• Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and Consultations initiated in SNC proposals to be enhanced and consolidatedconsolidated
• Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up Stakeholders process to be documented, including follow-up needed to keep adequate engagementneeded to keep adequate engagement
• Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to Strategy for results appropriation, with recommendations to facilitate adoption of resultsfacilitate adoption of results
• Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element Emphasizing socio-economics assessments as a key element of adaptation and mitigation assessmentsof adaptation and mitigation assessments
UNDP-GEF Adaptation 14
1. National Communications:
process and outputs
V&A and mitigation priorities identified
2. Adaptation Policy Framework and mitigation plans
Strategies and Projects Identified
3. Adaptation Financing, carbon financing
Adaptation and mitigation policies
adopted
Leveraging National Communications - Summary
Integration into national/sectoral
plans
Partnerships,Projects (GEF,
bilateral, multilateral)National Budgeting
Stakeholders, institutional coordination
Monitoring and evaluation