doug duncan, fannie mae chief economist, presentation at sjrei
DESCRIPTION
Doug Duncan shares his outlook on the economy with SJREI.TRANSCRIPT
1© 2012 Fannie Mae. Trademarks of Fannie Mae.
Private Forces Move to the ForeDoug Duncan, Chief Economist
Fannie Mae
October 2, 2014
Confidential - Internal Distribution
2
Disclaimer
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
3Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Blue Chip Economic Indicators
Rosy Expectations for 2014 Have Come Down After a Bumpy First Half
Blue Chip Consensus Forecast for 2014 Real GDP Year-over-Year Growth, by date
Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-141.5%
1.8%
2.1%
2.4%
2.7%
3.0%
4
The Second Quarter Rebound is Broad-Based
Contribution to Real GDP Annualized % Change
Government Consumption and Investment
Net Exports of Goods and Services
Change in Private Inventories
Residential Fixed Investment
Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Personal Consumption Expenditures
GDP
30.0%
-61.0%
166.0%
23.0%
68.0%
169.0%
400.0%
-15.0%
-166.0%
-116.0%
-17.0%
20.0%
83.0%
-210.0%
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
5Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Concerns About the Direction of the Economy May be Weighing on the Housing Recovery
6Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer Spending on Goods Surges
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, % Change Annual Rate)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q22011 2012 2013 2014
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Services
Goods
7Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer Spending on Healthcare Services Remains a Question Mark
Estimate of Real Healthcare Spending Growth in Q1 2014 (SAAR, Quarterly Annualized % Change)
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
First estimate Second estimate Third estimate
8Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Institute for Supply Management
Economic Activity Picks Up in Early Q3
530
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
ISM Nonmanufacturing Composite Index (SA)
ISM Manufacturing Composite Index (SA)
Ind
ex
(5
0+
In
dic
ate
s E
xp
an
sio
n)
9-Year High3-Year High
9Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
After Six Consecutive Months of Payrolls Growing Over 200K, Job Growth Slows in August
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
900
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thousands, Left Axis)Civilian Unemployment Rate (SA, Right Axis)
10Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Recovery* of the Full-Time Employment to Working Age Population Ratio Will Be Slow…
Jul-0
7
Jul-0
8
Jul-0
9
Jul-1
0
Jul-1
1
Jul-1
2
Jul-1
3
Jul-1
4
Jul-1
5
Jul-1
6
Jul-1
7
Jul-1
8
Jul-1
9
Jul-2
0
Jul-2
1
Jul-2
2
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Total Nonfarm EmploymentFull-Time Employed PersonsRatio of Total Nonfarm Employment to Working Age Popu-lationRatio of Full-Time Employment to Working Age Population
Seasonally Adjusted, December 2007 = 100
*Data starting in August 2014 are forecasted using the BLS labor force projections and assuming the prior year of employment growth remains constant.
11
…But Participation Has Fallen Considerably, for Reasons Both Structural and Cyclical
Confidential - Internal Distribution
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, 16 yr + (SA, %)
Labor Force Participation Rate (Indexed, Recession Trough=100)
-12
-11
-10
-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891
0111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364
94
96
98
100
102
104
10619751982199120012009
Months after Trough
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
'76'78'80'82'84'86'88'90'92'94'96'98'00'02'04'06'08'10'12'1456
58
60
62
64
66
68
70United StatesCalifornia
12Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Participation Has Declined for Both Men and Women in the Current Cycle
'48 '51 '54 '57 '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '140%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Male
Female
Labor Force Participation Rate (SA, %)
13
Though Most Jobs Created In the Past Few Years Have Been Full Time, the Total is Still Short of the Peak and Part Time Jobs Remain Elevated
Confidential - Internal Distribution
(SA, Millions) (SA, Millions)
110,000
112,000
114,000
116,000
118,000
120,000
122,000
124,000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000Full-Time (Left Axis)Part-Time (Right Axis)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
14
State Level Payroll Growth is More Geographically Concentrated than In Most Prior Recoveries
Confidential - Internal Distribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1960Q
2
1963Q
2
1966Q
2
1969Q
2
1972Q
2
1975Q
2
1978Q
2
1981Q
2
1984Q
2
1987Q
2
1990Q
2
1993Q
2
1996Q
2
1999Q
2
2002Q
2
2005Q
2
2008Q
2
2011Q
2
2014Q
2
2017Q
2
Sta
te N
onfa
rm P
ayro
ll G
row
th D
iffu
sio
n (
Index, 0-1
00)
Recession History Average, Economic Expansions Forecast
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group
15
House Price and Payroll Growth are Associated and Vary By State
Confidential - Internal Distribution
*North Dakota is an outlier that is outside the range of the graph margins. Both cumulative payrolls and house price growth over the period were 25 percent.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FHFA HPI Purchase-Only Index
Correlation Coefficient: 0.64
16Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Household Debt-to-Income Ratio Normalizes to Trend
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
'52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12
Household Debt as a Share of Disposable Personal Income Trendline: 1952-2000
17
Leading Indicators Point to Coming Wage Inflation Pressure as Job Gains Continue…
Confidential - Internal Distribution
Net (SA, %) Net (SA, %)
Source: National Federation of Independent Business
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97105
113121
129137
145153
161
-8%
0%
8%
15%
23%
30%
38%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
Percent Raising Worker Compensation Over Past 3-6 Months (Right Axis)Percent Planning to Raise Worker Compensation (Left Axis)
18
…Is the Fed Behind the Curve?
Confidential - Internal Distribution
(SA, $/Hour Year-Over-Year % Change)
1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100
111
122
133
144
155
166
177
188
199
210
221
232
243
254
265
276
287
298
309
320
331
342
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Federal Funds Target Rate (Right Axis)Average Hourly Earnings: Prod & Nonsupervisory: Total Private (Left Axis)
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19Confidential - Internal Distribution
The Fed Plans to Wind Down Asset Purchases This YearJa
n-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
Jun-
13
Jul-1
3
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Nov
-13
Dec
-13
Jan-
14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Apr
-14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug
-14
Sep
-14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec
-14
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
U.S. Treasuries MBS
Source: Federal Reserve Board – Fannie Mae ESR Projection based on prior Fed announcements
20
Market-Wide Credit Scores For Purchase And Refinance Loans
Confidential - Internal Distribution
Q1 2000
Q3 2000
Q1 2001
Q3 2001
Q1 2002
Q3 2002
Q1 2003
Q3 2003
Q1 2004
Q3 2004
Q1 2005
Q3 2005
Q1 2006
Q3 2006
Q1 2007
Q3 2007
Q1 2008
Q3 2008
Q1 2009
Q3 2009
Q1 2010
Q3 2010
Q1 2011
Q3 2011
Q1 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2014640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
Credit Score of Purchase Money Mortgages* Linear (Credit Score of Purchase Money Mortgages*)
* Credit scores are calculated as a weighted average of the entire mortgage market based on loan balance at origination for the segment indicated; Investor weights applied to adjust for CoreLogic’s uneven coverage by investor.
Average Credit Score
Sources: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group
21Confidential - Internal Distribution
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Household Formation (Thousands of Households)
Source: Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey
Household Formation Disappoints
22Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Census Bureau
The Share of Young Adults Living at Home Continues to Edge Higher25-34 Year Olds Living at Home with Parents (%)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201210%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement
American Community Survey
23
Parents are Generally Supportive of Their Adult Children Living at Home, Though Reasons May Differ
Confidential - Internal Distribution
*Employment status for the parent who indicates that they are the “primary financial decision maker” of the household.
Employment situation for households with… Adult Children
Living at HomeAges 18-22
Adult ChildrenLiving at Home
Ages 23-34
Parent* full time employed 54% 38%
Adult child full time employed 20% 48%
Please tell me whether you would prefer that [he/she] continues to live in your home or finds alternate living arrangements not in your home.
I prefer that they continue to live in my home 72% 63%
I prefer that they find alternate living arrangements not in my home
20% 30%
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
24
Number of Married Households Declining in Younger Age Cohorts
Confidential - Internal Distribution
Common First-Time Home Buying Age
Millions of HH
Source: Census Bureau
25Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Census Bureau
Homeownership Has Fallen Even Among Young Adults Who Are “Prime”* Home Buying Candidates
All 30-32 Year-Olds
30-32 Year-Old "Prime" Home Buying Candi-
dates
30-32 Year-Old "Prime" Home Buying Candi-
dates, Non-Hispanic White
Alone
All 30-32 Year-Olds
30-32 Year-Old "Prime" Home Buying Candi-
dates
30-32 Year-Old "Prime" Home Buying Candi-
dates, Non-Hispanic White
Alone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1002000 2006 2009 2012
Ho
me
ow
ne
rsh
ip R
ate
(p
erc
en
t)
RECENT MOVERS ONLYALL HOUSEHOLDERS
*Prime homebuyers are defined as upper income households with householders in their early 30s who have college educations and are married with children.
26Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey
In Fact, All of the Net Household Formation Since the Recession Ended Has Been in Rentals
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied-2000.0
-1000.0
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
Net Change in Households since Q2 2009 (Millions)
27Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Census Bureau
Both Single-Family and Multifamily Building Recently Disappoint
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Single-Family (Left Axis) Multifamily (Right Axis)
SA, Thousands of Units SA, Thousands of Units
28Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo
Homebuilder Confidence Has Diverged from Permit Issuance as Builders are More Profitable with Fewer Units
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Single-Family Residential Building Permits (SAAR, Millions of Units, Left Axis)
Home Builder Expectations For Sales of New Single-Family Homes: Next 6 Mo (SA, Index, All Good=100, Right Axis)
29Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: National Association of REALTORS®
Existing Home Sales and Pending Home Sales Retreat in August
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Existing Home Sales (SAAR, Thousands, Left Axis)
Pending Home Sales Index (SA, Right Axis)
30
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States Change)
CoreLogic National House Price Index
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20
Confidential - Internal DistributionSource: S&P/Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Federal Housing Finance Agency
Major Measures of Home Prices Show Moderating GrowthYear-over-Year % Change
31Confidential - Internal Distribution
Consumers See Home Price Growth Slowing as Well, but the Shrinking Gap Between Buyer and Seller Confidence Could Bring More Inventory
Share of Respondents Indicating it is a…
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
Average 12-Month Home Price Expectation (%)
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
De
c-11
Ma
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun
-14 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
De
c-11
Ma
r-1
2
Jun
-12
Se
p-1
2
De
c-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jun
-13
Se
p-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jun
-14
Good Time to Buy Good Time to Sell
32Confidential - Internal Distribution
Mortgage Market Is Switching to a Purchase Market, Which Means Less Production
Mortgage Originations (NSA, 1-4 Unit, Billions of $)
Source: Fannie Mae Economic & Strategic Research Group
*Fannie Mae Forecast
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
*
20
15
*$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
Purchase Refinance
33
Conditions in California
34Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA (SA, %)
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA (SA, %)
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA (SA, %)
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (SA, %)
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (SA, %)
California (SA, %)
United States (SA, %)
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Jan-00
Nov-00
Sep-01
Jul-02
May-0
3
Mar-0
4Jan-05
Nov-05
Sep-06
Jul-07
May-0
8
Mar-0
9Jan-10
Nov-10
Sep-11
Jul-12
May-1
3
Mar-1
40.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Labor Force, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (SA, Thous) Unemployment Rate, San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA (SA, %) Unemployment Rate, United States (SA, %) Unemployment Rate, California (SA, %)
California Unemployment Lags the Nation’s, but San Jose’s Job Market is Healthy
35
California Median Household Income Remains Above The Nation’s
Source: Census Bureau
'84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Median Household Income: United States
Median Household Income: California
36
In Florida, Texas, and California, People are More Likely to Think Their Personal Financial Situation Will Get Better Over the Next Year Than the
General Population
Looking ahead one year, do you expect your personal financial situation to get much better, somewhat better, stay about the same, get somewhat worse, or get much worse?
BetterStay About The Same
Worse
* Denotes state results are significantly different than the general population at the 95% confidence level
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
37
People in California, Florida, and Texas Expect Home Prices to Rise More Over the Next Year Than the General Population
During the next 12 months, do you think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now? Go Up Go Down
• Home prices in California are expected to rise the more than in Florida and Texas and nationwide
Stay The Same
* Denotes state results are significantly different than the general population at the 95% confidence level
GP Florida Texas California
Average 12 Month Home Price Change Expectation:
2.58%
Average 12 Month Home Price Change Expectation:
3.55%
Average 12 Month Home Price Change Expectation:
3.11%
Average 12 Month Home Price Change Expectation:
4.08%*
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
38
More People In California and Florida Expect Mortgage Interest Rates to Go Up During the Next 12 Months Than in Texas
During the next 12 months, do you think home mortgage interest rates will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now?
Go Up Stay the same Go Down
* Denotes state results are significantly different than the general population at the 95% confidence level
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
39
Do you think it would be very difficult, somewhat difficult, somewhat easy, or very easy for you to get a home mortgage today?
Easy Difficult
People in Florida, Texas, and California are More Likely to Think it Would be Difficult to Get a Mortgage Today Than the General
Population
* Denotes state results are significantly different than the general population at the 95% confidence level
Source: Fannie Mae National Housing Survey
40 IHS Global Insight, Economics and Country Risk
Q1'00Q1'01
Q1'02Q1'03
Q1'04Q1'05
Q1'06Q1'07
Q1'08Q1'09
Q1'10Q1'11
Q1'12Q1'13
Q1'140
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
CA Existing Median SF Home Price ($)CA New Median SF Home Price ($)NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)
California Prices Have Seen Healthy Appreciation…
Q1'00Q1'01
Q1'02Q1'03
Q1'04Q1'05
Q1'06Q1'07
Q1'08Q1'09
Q1'10Q1'11
Q1'12Q1'13
Q1'140
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
CA New Home Mortgage OriginationsCA Existing Home Mortgage Originations
Source:
41
…Which Has Helped Reduce the Share of California Underwater Borrowers
United States, 12.6%
Source: CoreLogic
*Data as of June 30, 2014
42Source: Census Bureau, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
Jan-00Jul-0
0Jan-01
Jul-01Jan-02
Jul-02Jan-03
Jul-03Jan-04
Jul-04Jan-05
Jul-05Jan-06
Jul-06Jan-07
Jul-07Jan-08
Jul-08Jan-09
Jul-09Jan-10
Jul-10Jan-11
Jul-11Jan-12
Jul-12Jan-13
Jul-13
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Housing Starts: California (SAAR, Thous.Units, LEFT AXIS) US Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units, RIGHT AXIS)
Homebuilders Are Still Timid But the Improving Home Prices and the Potential for Profit Should Push Them to Build
43
California SDQ Rate Is Better Than U.S.’s
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
(NSA, %)
Mar
-00
Feb-0
1
Jan-
02
Dec-0
2
Nov-0
3
Oct-04
Sep-0
5
Aug-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jun-
08
May
-09
Apr-1
0
Mar
-11
Feb-1
2
Jan-
13
Dec-1
30.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: U.S. (NSA, %) Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: California (NSA, %)
(NSA, %)
Mar
-00
Feb-0
1
Jan-
02
Dec-0
2
Nov-0
3
Oct-04
Sep-0
5
Aug-0
6
Jul-0
7
Jun-
08
May
-09
Apr-1
0
Mar
-11
Feb-1
2
Jan-
13
Dec-1
30.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: U.S. (NSA, %) Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: California (NSA, %)
44Confidential - Internal Distribution
Speaker Biography
Representatives, and work on the Financial Institutions Project at the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He has been elected to the Board of Directors for the National Association of Business Economists, is a member of the American Economics Association and the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, and is past president of the Housing Statistics Users Group.
Named one of Bloomberg / BusinessWeek’s 50 Most Powerful People in Real Estate and one of Inman News’ 100 Most Influential Real Estate Leaders for 2013, Duncan is a frequent speaker on national and state economic, housing, and mortgage market conditions.
Duncan received his Ph. D. in Agricultural Economics from Texas A&M University and his B.S. and M.S. in Agricultural Economics from North Dakota State University.
Douglas G. Duncan is Fannie Mae’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. He is responsible for managing Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group and oversees corporate strategy. In this leadership role, Duncan provides all economic, housing, and mortgage market forecasts and analyses, and serves as the company’s thought leader and spokesperson on economic and mortgage market issues.
Prior to joining Fannie Mae, Duncan was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. His experience also includes service as a LEGIS Fellow and staff member with the Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs for Congressman Bill McCollum in the U.S. House of
45
Contact Informationfanniemae.com/portal/research-and-analysis/
Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist
Fannie Mae
3900 Wisconsin Avenue, NW
Mail Stop 1H-2N/01
Washington, DC 20016
(o) 202-752-0160
(c) 202-409-5913
(fax) 202-752-4441
Confidential - Internal Distribution