domestic cmbs issuance (in $billions)
DESCRIPTION
- PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Lessons from CMBS 1.0: The Wonder Years
Moderator:John Bonfiglio, Principal, Allegiance Investment Advisors, LLC
Panelists: Richard Avidon, Director, Deutsche Asset Management
Robert Brennan Jack Cohen, Chief Executive Officer, Cohen Financial
Edward L. Shugrue III, Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Jack Taylor, Managing Director, PREI
Randolph Wolpert, Division President, LNR Partners, Inc.
Domestic CMBS Issuance (in $billions)
$16 $26
$37
$74
$57 $47 $67
$52
$78 $93
$169
$203
$230
$12 $2 $0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
The Wonder Years: 1995-2007 The Lost Years: 2008-2009
Volatility in the Capital Markets
DJIA AAA Spreads
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
Dow
Jon
es Ind
ustria
l Ave
rage
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
AAA C
MBS
Spre
ads (o
ver Sw
aps)
AAA Spreads
DJIAS+1530
Jul 2008: FDIC seizes
IndyMac
Nov 2008:U.S. Gov’t
Citi investment
Sep 15 2008:Lehman BK
Sep 7 2008: Fannie, Freddie nationalization
Feb 2009:Stimulus signed
Mar 2009:PPIP announced
Jul 2009:TALF Legacy
program commences
May 2009: TALF Legacy
program announced
Oct 2008:TARP signed
Mar 2008: Bear Stearns
sale
Sep 2009:New REMIC
loan modification rules announced
Nov 2009:DDR deal
closes
Sep 2007:Fed begins to
lower Fed Funds Rate
Jan 2008:BofA buys
Countrywide
39Average AAA CMBS Spread (1995-2007)
Legacy vs. New-Issue CMBSGSMS 2007-GG10 DDR 2009-DDR1
Issuance Date July 2007 November 2009
Size $7.56 billion $400 million
Issuer LTV 74% 52%
AAA LTV 52% 42%
Issuer DSCR (last $) 1.3x 2.5x
# of Tranches 25 3
# of Loans 202 1
# of Properties 353 28
Rating Agencies (#) 3 3
Special Servicer B-Piece Holder Independent