domestic appliances market growth drivers and …...domestic appliances are versatile. saturation...
TRANSCRIPT
1© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Domestic Appliances –
market growth drivers and APAC trends.
Charlie Cai & Alexander Dehmel
GfK
CE ChinaShenzhen, May 2018
2© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Global and SEA View
3© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Variety of Products addresses many opportunities
Domestic Appliances are versatile. Saturation levels are not achieved
External Factors are favorable for the
development of Sales for Domestic Appliances.
Emerging middle class & number of households rising worldwide
Fewer persons per HH in developed world, rising population with access to
electricity in developing countries
Appliances addressing convenience peak
Same outcome in less time is expected – multifunctional/smart, and more
Macroeconomic framework is positive
Low interest rates make investment in housing attractive
4© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
GfK World Market Estimation MDA9 | Mio. Units
MDA 9 = Washing Machines, Tumble Dryers, Dishwashers, Refrigerators, Freezers, Cookers/Ovens, Hobs, Hoods, Microwave Ovens
MDA Markets are doing exceptionally well
throughout the last 10 years.
384407 407 403
442464 471
484494 499 506
527549
570
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EFC2018
EFC2019
+2%
to
+6%
+3%
to
+7%
-1%
+6%+0% +10%
+5%+2%
+3%+2%
+1% +1%+4%
5© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
+4.1%
Unit Growth Forecast 2018
Source: MDA9 World Market Estimation 2017 | GfK POS Tracking
And positive developments in all World regions are
forecasted for 2018.
6© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Value Shares by region (USD fixed)
Source: MDA World Market Estimation 2017 | GfK POS Tracking
Asia has been a rising star in the last 10 years for
Domestic Appliances.
116 1
7
40
10
26
2008
21
5
38
26
10
25
2018 FC
ChinaJapanIndiaOther APACEurope/CIS
AmericasMiddle East/Africa
7© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
21 28 33 30 29
6
5125 3
24 3539 60 44
44
3
14
49
10
10
4515 3
45 3
93 4
Europe/CIS China Japan India Other APAC
Microwave Ovens
Hoods
BI Hobs/Cooktops
Cookers/Ovens
Freezers
Cooling
Dishwashers
Tumble Dryers
Washing Machines
The Product Mix in Asia is different and offers
opportunities.
Value Shares by Products 2017 (USD fixed)
Source: MDA World Market Estimation 2017 | GfK POS Tracking
8© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
1 Market segments sorted by abs. Value growth
Convenience and Premium drives the market in SEA.
Washing Machines
+ 8%
WM
Inverter Motor +26%
WM >8kg
FA Front +35%
WM FA Top +4%
Washdryer +21%
Smart +43%
Jan/Feb: + 15%
Fridges
+3%
2 DR FR BTM +23%
Side by Side +4%
2 DR FRZ Top +4%
Smart +177%
4 Doors +12%
Jan/Feb: + 13%
Sales value € (fixed) growth 2017 vs. 2016, SEA 8 + HK/TW
Vacuum Cleaner
+17%
Handstick +39%
Smart +764%
Robot +47%
Jan/Feb: + 28%
Segment growth is
always related to:
▪ Convenience
▪ More Premium
▪ Higher efficiency
9© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Smart Appliances
10© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Source: GfK Consumer Scope
75%
China
Brazil
57%
South Korea
55%
USA
51%
UK
47%
Germany
43%
Japan
19%
Global
50%
Consumers agree:worldwide 50% of the
consumers are sure, that
Smart Home will change
their life in the near future
11© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
778
318
126
7
2012
2018
1,947 4,131
7,178
Growing number of smart models selling on the market
12© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Distribution of smart appliances is expanding
13© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Jan 15-Mar 15
Apr 15-Jun 15
Jul 15-Sep 15
Oct 15-Dec 15
Jan 16-Mar 16
Apr 16-Jun 16
Jul 16-Sep 16
Oct 16-Dec 16
Jan 17-Mar 17
Apr 17-Jun 17
Jul 17-Sep 17
Oct 17-Dec 17
Jan 18-Feb 18
Western Europe
2,4
3,8
6,5
9,3
Jan 15-Mar 15
Apr 15-Jun 15
Jul 15-Sep 15
Oct 15-Dec 15
Jan 16-Mar 16
Apr 16-Jun 16
Jul 16-Sep 16
Oct 16-Dec 16
Jan 17-Mar 17
Apr 17-Jun 17
Jul 17-Sep 17
Oct 17-Dec 17
Jan 18-Feb 18
CIS
4,4
5,9
10,8
14,8
Jan 15-Mar 15
Apr 15-Jun 15
Jul 15-Sep 15
Oct 15-Dec 15
Jan 16-Mar 16
Apr 16-Jun 16
Jul 16-Sep 16
Oct 16-Dec 16
Jan 17-Mar 17
Apr 17-Jun 17
Jul 17-Sep 17
Oct 17-Dec 17
Jan 18-Feb 18
Central-Eastern Europe
2,8
4,0
6,88,9
Jan 15-Mar 15
Apr 15-Jun 15
Jul 15-Sep 15
Oct 15-Dec 15
Jan 16-Mar 16
Apr 16-Jun 16
Jul 16-Sep 16
Oct 16-Dec 16
Jan 17-Mar 17
Apr 17-Jun 17
Jul 17-Sep 17
Oct 17-Dec 17
Jan 18-Feb 18
APAC
3,0
7,8
15,3
21,8
Value share of smart appliances
Share of smart appliances increasing globally
14© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
MDA Total 8, Smart Connect, 2017 vs. 2016, Sales Thsd. Units, GfK Panelmarket
Still very different situation within regions: China is almost
60% of the global smart appliances market!
5912
19
6 4
2017
China
Other APAC
Europe/CIS
LATAM 10
Middle East/Africa13.1
24.9
2016 2017
Sale Mio Units
+90%
>100%
15© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Smart Appliances
Share of smart appliances grows fast, number of models and distribution as well.
With Asia being a more dynamic market, lower price gap between smart and non-smart, the
readiness to buy smart is much higher than in other regions of the World.
Healthy Market
Global market keeps on growing year on year. In 2017 dynamic picked up due to China, LATAM
and CIS recovery. We expect further positive development in the nearest future
Asia as a region of potential
Asia as a region with many opportunities in many product segments. Increasing middle classes
and income secure a sustainable growth for the years to come.
123
Key facts about MDA market in 2018
16© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
China
17© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
1,777
1,942
2,189 2,326
2015 2016 2017 2018E
Telecom 通讯产品
IT产品
Small Domestic
Appliance 小家电
Major Domestic
Appliance 大白电
Consumer
Electronics 消费电子
Photo 数码影像产品
Total 总计
1%
5%
5%
10%
0%
7%
6%
2017 VS. 2016 2018E VS. 2017
中国技术消费电子产品增长预估China technical consumer goods market estimation
(online+offline线上+线下, billion CNY) Value growth rate%
销售额同比增长
Source: GfK China
5%
2%
16%
14%
5%
16%
13%
18© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking
中国白色家电分品类增长趋势MDA growth trend by value
家用空调 烤箱
洗碗机
灶具油烟机
微波炉
冰箱
蒸箱
洗衣机
-10%
20%
50%
80%
110%
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
零售额增长率
均价
MDA 2017对比2016 零售额同比增长
19© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking
超薄多门对开冰箱
智能冰箱
1级能效空调
智能空调
洗干滚筒
复式洗衣机
干衣机
洗碗机
蒸箱
千元以上耳机
OLED&QLED彩电
Handstick吸尘器
机器人吸尘器
榨汁机
IH电饭锅游戏电脑
超轻薄笔记本
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
零售额增长率
均价
AI 电视、全面屏手机、双摄手机 2017年处于爆发态势
2017对比2016 零售额同比高增长的细分产品
中国市场高增长的品类Fast growing product type
20© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
31
2015 2016 2017
干衣机/Tumble Dryer
104
2015 2016 2017
洗碗机/Dishwasher
▲ 117%
品质生活推动新兴品类家电New category driven by quality life pursuit2015-2017零售量规模(万台)
▲ 52%
244
2015 2016 2017
热饮机(咖啡机为主)
Hot beverage maker
2,405
2015 2016 2017
电动牙刷
Elec tooth brush
▲ 29%
▲ 100%
21© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
38.5
24.9
23.6
24.9
20.4
25.4
17.524.8
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
线下市场 offline
> 6000
<= 6000
<= 3800
<= 2700
大白电价格段演变MDA price band evolution冰箱洗衣机空调合计:价格段(人民币元)演变分线上线下,销售额占比
30.423.6
28.5
24.9
21.1
26.3
20.125.3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
在线市场 online
> 4000
<= 4000
<= 2700
<= 1800
22© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
6,193
4,581
243
456
200
400
600
2,000
5,000
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
滚筒洗干一体机 Washer dryer
均价 SKU数量
-26%
性价比竞争value for money competition
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
6,234
4,678
341
589
300
500
700
3,500
5,500
7,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
500-600L REF 冰箱均价/型号数量变化趋势
-25%
+88% +73%
23© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4
8K+CNY WM 高端洗衣机市场零售额规模(百万元)普通洗衣机 复合式产品
中高端市场的发展Growth of mid-high end market
24© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
1.7
9.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
洗衣机自动投放发展趋势
(Auto Dosage, Value%)
11.5
42.91.9
26.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
洗衣机大容量发展趋势
(Capacity, Value%)-8.9KG
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
满足消费者便利生活的产品扩大比重Product target with convenience increasing
造型多样
43.1%
2017年台式销量占比高达
果蔬洗、奶瓶洗
洗碗机基础洗涤需求 发展中的洗涤需求
洗涤分区化
水槽洗碗机
洗碗区
果蔬洗区
水槽
在线市场零售额占比(%)
2017.01 2017.12
6.6%
13.6%
25© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
用户需求升级Consumer demand changed
洗衣机除菌
除菌程序
高温、蒸汽
光动银、纳米银离子
热风除菌、双极除螨
空气净化空调
38%
分区存储的创新
控湿保鲜
主要用于冷藏室杀菌
e.g. Ag+,草本,低温触媒,
ABT杀菌等
56%
抑菌保鲜
主要用于分区存储
e.g. 干湿分储、甄材室等
具保鲜技术产品零售量贡献率
*Top 100多门对开门
保鲜保湿冰箱
25%
2017年空气净化空调
新品型号数量占比
√ 除甲醛 √ 除PM0.3 √ 除PM2.5
26© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
产品外观和结构变化Product design matters
2014 2015 2016 2017
滚筒洗衣机颜色变化
(Drum by Color, 零售量%)
其他
颜色
白色
银色
冰箱门体演变(零售额%)
26.4%对开门
32.9%多门
33.5%三门
47.3%两门
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
一门 两门 三门 对开两门 对开三门
普通多门 十字多门 五门 六门
27© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Smart TV&
Entertainment
153 bil
Smart MDA
103.6 bil
Smart SDA
12.0 bil.
Home automation
and security
7.2 bil
Other smart
device
5.7bil
source:GfK
2017年智能家居电子产品规模达到2820亿元Smart connect products reached 282 bil CNY in 2017
28© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
零售额占比
%38.2
11.3
28.4
空调 冰箱 洗衣机
带Wifi连接产品销量占比
2015 2016 2017
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
智能控制与交互
2017 AI 电视发展
智能产品竞争Smart develop from wifi connect to the whole house IOT
卧室空调
音响
手机
电脑
……
卫浴热水器
镜子
抽水马桶
洗衣机
电吹风
……
客厅
门锁
冰箱
电视
路由器
吸尘器
空气净化器
……
厨房抽油烟机
灶台
微波炉
烤箱
洗碗机
电饭煲
……
家庭房屋示意图
全屋智能IOT
29© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Data Source: GfK China retail tracking and estimation
智慧零售Smart retails inevitable
选品
消费升级
稀有品种
生鲜占比
不同店的差异化产品陈列
50~
75%
黑科技 物流
门店支付电子化
智能购物车
悬挂链
魔镜
5分钟 3公里30分钟配货时间 配送时间
电子价签
自营 众包+
30© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05© GfK 2016 | The Connected Consumer
ACCELERATION
V. S.
产品升级
INTIMACY
V.S.
零售升级
Fundamental
shifts inconsumer behavior
FREEDOM
V.S.
消费选择
31© GfK 2018 | Global & SEA Trends for MDA | 2018-05
Thank you for your attention!