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External costs of future technologies

Wolfram Krewitt

DLRInstitute of Technical Thermodynamics

Systems Analysis and Technology AssessmentStuttgart

presented by

Andrea RicciISIS

Roma

NEEDS ForumJanuary 28, 2008

Cairo


external cost assessment as an input to strategic energy planning

needs to reflect long term innovation dynamics of relevant technologies

energy policy decisions based on current technology characteristics might hinder the exploitation of future technology development potentials


NEEDS Research Stream ‘life cycle approaches for the assessment of emerging technologies’

provide data on

- technical characteristics,

- costs

- life cycle emissions

- external costs

for emerging electricity generation technologies

with a strong focus on long term technical developments (time horizon 2050)


NEEDS approach to characterise future technologies

Basic understanding in foresight studies: there is not just one possible future, but many. Dependent on how actors choose to act, different futures are possible, though of course not all of them will become reality.

To cover a reasonable range of alternative future development options, three different technology development scenarios for each individual technology:

‘pessimistic scenario’: Socio-economic framing conditions do not stimulate market uptake and technical innovations.

‘realistic-optimistic scenario’: Strong socio-economic drivers support dynamic market uptake and continuous technology development. It is very likely that the respective technology gains relevance on the global electricity market.

‘very optimistic scenario’: A technological breakthrough makes the respective technology on the long term a leading global electricity supply technology.


technology foresight approaches

The individual technology scenarios are developed by combining a bottom-up technology oriented perspective with a top-down energy system perspective in an iterative way.

The key driving forces which can help to activate diffusion factors and to overcome market barriers are identified.

The assessment of future costs is based on experience curves. A complementary bottom-up approach is used, describing different sources of cost reduction, leading to cost estimates in a mid-term time perspective. Interviews with experts from both academia and industry are used to envision long-term alternative cost development paths.


examples

two different solar technologies

- photovoltaic

- concentrating solar thermal power plants (CSP)

coal combustion with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)


Resource direct and diffuse irradiation

Capacity Watt to MW

Installation: everywhere (roofs, etc.)

Full load hours: 700 – 2000 h/a

Reserve capacity: external

Proven tech. lifetime > 20 years

Annual generation in 2004 2500 GWh

Cost of electricity (today) 0,25 – 0,50 €/kWh

direct irradiation

10 MW to several 100 MW

flat unused terrain

2000 – 7000 h/a

internal (fossil hybrid operation)

> 20 years

800 GWh

0,13 – 0,22 €/kWh

Characteristics PV CSP

Source: R. Pitz-Paal, DLR


‘Pessimistic’: current incentives for PV will not be supported long enough for the technology to ever become competitive with bulk electricity. Growth of world PV market resulting from current PV funding schemes, severely stunted by 2025.

‘Optimistic-realistic’: three different PV ‘families’ (crystalline Si, thin film, novel devices) are likely to co-exist, each expanding in its own most suitable sector. Growth according to industry (EPIA) predictions, after 2025 reduced growth rates (GP/EREC scenario).

‘Very optimistic’: - Market still growing until 2050 (yearly growth rate down to 4%) - By mid 2030’s large scale energy storage infrastructure- Very rapid expansion of PV based on novel technologies after

2025 (technological breakthrough) 50% of total PV market in 2050

PV technology development scenarios


PV market development pathways

Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007

PV technology market share

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Present (2006) 2025 2050

Year

Mar

ket S

har

e

Novel Devices

Thin Films

c-Si

PV technology market share

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Present (2006) 2025 2050

Year

Mar

ket S

har

e

Novel Devices

Thin Films

c-Si

‘optimistic realistic’ scenario

‘pessimistic’ scenario


Innovation and environmental learning: life cycle CO2 emissions of future PV configurations

Source: P. Frankl, NEEDS, 2007

4.6

13.7

8.2

33.0

3.0

12.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

singlecrystalline

present

c-Si ribbon

2025

CdTe c-Si ribbon

2050

CdTe ConcentratorGaInP/GaAs

g C

O2

/ k

Wh


Concentrating solar thermal power plants

• Large scale grid connected electricity generation

• electricity generation today 800 GWh/y

• Several power plants under construction (Spain, US)

• thermal storage: dispatchable solar power


solar resources in the Middle East/North Africa region

a solar thermal power plant of the size of Lake Nasser (Aswan) could harvest energy equivalent to the annual oil production of the Middle East


CSP – future development options


CSP – life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for various future configurations


fossil fuels – carbon capture and sequestration

source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(adapted from BP)


pulverised coal combustion – current and with CCS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

600 MW 470 MW C 470 MW CCSaquifer 200km

470 MW CCSgasfield 400km

g C

O2-

Eq

. / k

Wh

Total Carbon dioxide, fossil Methane, fossil Dinitrogen monoxide

source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(preliminary data)


pulverised coal combustion (current/CCS) – valuation of impacts based on Ecoindicator ‘99

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

600 MW 470 MW C 470 MW CCSaquifer 200km

470 MW CCSgasfield 400km

EI'9

9 (H

,A)

Pt [

10E

- 0

3] /

kW

h

Fossil fuels

Minerals

Land use

Acidification/Eutrophication

Ecotoxicity

Ozone layer

Radiation

Climatechange

Resp.inorganics

Resp. organics

Carcinogens

source: Dones et al., NEEDS, 2007(preliminary data)


external costs of future technologies(low estimate - no equity weighting. 2025 7 €/tCO2; 2050 5 €/tCO2)

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

IGCC c

oal

IGCC c

oal C

CS

Gas C

C

Gas C

C CCS

Fuel c

ell (M

CFC, nat

. gas

)

wind o

ffsho

re

PV c-Si,

roof,

cent

ral E

urope

PV sc-S

i, gr

ound

, Sout

h Eur

ope

Solar t

herm

al

Wav

e en

ergy

ex

tern

al c

os

ts in

€c

t/k

Wh

2025

2050


external costs of future technologies(high estimate – equity weighting; normalised to Western Europe

2025 86 €/tCO2; 2050 52 €/tCO2)

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

IGCC c

oal

IGCC c

oal C

CS

Gas C

C

Gas C

C CCS

Fuel c

ell (M

CFC, nat

. gas

)

wind o

ffsho

re

PV c-Si,

roof,

cent

ral E

urope

PV sc-S

i, gr

ound

, Sout

h Eur

ope

Solar t

herm

al

Wav

e en

ergy

ex

tern

al c

os

ts in

€c

t/k

Wh

2025

2050


conclusions

there is a large potential for improving environmental performance of current ‘emerging technologies’

quantifiable external costs strongly depend on assumptions related to the valuation of climate change impacts

depending on climate change valuation, external costs from fossil electricity generation might be significantly higher than private costs

Carbon Capture and Sequestration can significantly reduce quantifiable external costs from fossil fuels, but CCS ranks bad on other evaluation scheme (EcoIndicator ’99)

future renewable energy technologies show very low quantifiable external costs

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