does this make sense to you?€¦ · from 29 march the numbers of covid deaths have included all...

SceptikatSceptikatSceptikat

6 July, 2020 (general) [email protected] or (private) [email protected] 1

Scenario Fitting

by SCEPTIKAT

Does This Make Sense To You?

Narrated by Andrew Mather

Part 8 – “Man killed by shark dies of

coronavirus”



What areas should we look at?


Action if acting in the interest

of the population

UK government action

TRACK SEPARATELY

Keep track of various

categories of deaths: those

that very likely died *of* covid

vs *with* covid; those with the

virus but no symptoms vs

those that weren’t tested but

had covid like symptoms –

report these separately

LUMP EVERYTHING

Counting everything including

where the virus was present

even if asymptomatic and not

the cause of death as well as

‘assumed’ cases based on no

testing; with the result that the

virus appears far more deadly

to the public than it is

8. The deaths




Let’s start with looking at the number of covid cases

reported.

This is a largely meaningless number because of the

overwhelming prevalence of asymptomatic/mild

cases. The majority of those infected have no reason

to get tested.

Any country can report more covid cases simply by

choosing to test more people.

8. The deathsNumber of covid cases

https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/17/football/1584480211_463872.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8108611/Coronavirus-

UK-Callum-Hudson-Odoi-speaks-time-testing-positive.html

https://en.as.com/en/2020/03/17/football/1584480211_463872.html

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8108611/Coronavirus-UK-Callum-Hudson-Odoi-speaks-time-testing-positive.html




The initially very limited availability

of tests meant that the number of

*reported* cases was going to rise

even if the number of cases was not.

Initially even if you HAD symptoms,

you couldn’t get tested unless you

were over 65, or couldn’t work from

home, or worked for the NHS!


https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-who-can-get-tested-for-coronavirus-under-the-new-uk-guidance

https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-who-can-get-tested-for-coronavirus-under-the-new-uk-guidance




The "bump in cases" in Leicester

for example just reflected a bump

in testing.

8. The deaths

Pillar 1 (green): swab testing in Public Health England (PHE)

labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and

health and care workers

Pillar 2 (red): swab testing for the wider population, as set

out in government guidance




Early on, mostly only very serious cases

were identified (plus celebrity cases, of

course).

Indeed it is the case that with more testing,

the reported fatality rates have been falling

as more mild cases were tested.


https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1274945422545600518

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1274945422545600518




As group immunity would stop the disease

spreading, finding a large number of

asymptomatic and mild cases is excellent news.

The headlines would have you believe that

“finding a number of new cases” is something

terrifyingly dire – when in reality it shows that

the virus is much less dangerous and much more

widespread than previously suggested.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/antibody-study-suggests-coronavirus-is-far-more-widespread-than-previously-thought



SceptikatSceptikatSceptikatThe number of reported

cases is quite arbitrary

already based on how

much testing is done and

whether mild cases are

tested, but the utter

unreliability of tests makes

this even worse.

Various studies found that

about half of the positives

were false positives. One

study found the false

positive rate to be over

80%.

8. The deathsCovid tests are unreliable

https://taiwanenglishnews.com/in-the-midst-of-viral-

panic-everybody-ignores-the-problem-of-false-positives-

and-they-call-for-more-tests/

https://www.collective-

evolution.com/2020/03/16/study-suggests-

potential-high-rate-of-false-positives-for-covid-

19-testing/

https://taiwanenglishnews.com/in-the-midst-of-viral-panic-everybody-ignores-the-problem-of-false-positives-and-they-call-for-more-tests/

https://www.collective-evolution.com/2020/03/16/study-suggests-potential-high-rate-of-false-positives-for-covid-19-testing/




Even the proponents of

covid tests deem the

antibody test “not

reliable enough” and

the antigen test less

good than the PCR

test.

So how good is the

best testing method,

the PCR (polymerase

chain reaction) test?


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-

shots/2020/05/01/847368012/how-reliable-are-covid-

19-tests-depends-which-one-you-

mean?t=1593533554962

Diagnostic or PCR test

Generally speaking, these are the most reliable tests.

Antibody test

In general, these tests aren't reliable enough for

individuals to act based on the results.

Antigen test

Researchers do not expect it to be as accurate as the

PCR diagnostic test, but it is possible the antigen

tests could be used to screen patients for infection.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/01/847368012/how-reliable-are-covid-19-tests-depends-which-one-you-mean?t=1593533554962




As it turns out…not that great.

The inventor of the test himself (for

which he won the Nobel prize) said the

test should not be used to detect

viruses.


http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-

ebola-tests-inventor-says-the-test-is-

unreliable/

https://www.weblyf.com/2020/05/coronavirus-the-truth-about-pcr-test-kit-from-the-inventor-and-other-experts/

“The idea these kits can isolate a specific virus like covid-19 is nonsense.”

http://transmissionsmedia.com/the-ebola-tests-inventor-says-the-test-is-unreliable/

https://www.weblyf.com/2020/05/coronavirus-the-truth-about-pcr-test-kit-from-the-inventor-and-other-experts/




In fact, the PCR test

has an inglorious

history including

wrongly

“identifying” a false

whooping cough

epidemic.

And maybe all it

tells you is that you

may have had the

common cold.


https://dartmed.dartmouth.edu/spring07/html/vs_cough.php

http://www.careclubusa.com/News/hazards-of-modern-whooping-cough-tests/

https://twitter.com/DavidTa69192197/status/1278004782603657217

https://dartmed.dartmouth.edu/spring07/html/vs_cough.php

http://www.careclubusa.com/News/hazards-of-modern-whooping-cough-tests/

https://twitter.com/DavidTa69192197/status/1278004782603657217




All over the world, the accuracy

of the tests was found to be

poor.

The experience of Tanzania in

particular grabbed headlines

where various fruits and

animals tested positive for

covid.


The Czech Republic has also found itself on the short end

of a similar bargain, finding out the 300,000 kits it’d bought

this week for $1.83 million to carry out its 900 daily tests

were only 20 percent accurate. The EU Medicine Agency’s

guidelines, on par with the U.S. Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention’s (CDC), require that tests be 80

percent accurate on average.

Spain’s press is reporting that 30 percent of the kits — 20

percent in the Czech Republic’s case — were valid.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-challenges-the-world-with-flawed-covid-19-te/

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/china-challenges-the-world-with-flawed-covid-19-te/




The President of Tanzania John

Magufuli, who is also a chemist, did

not trust the World Health

Organization or their coronavirus

testing.

He secretly had a variety of

animals, fruits and vehicle oil tested

at the national laboratory.


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/president-tanzania-didnt-trust-sent-samples-

sheep-goats-bunny-trees-fruit-car-oil-covid-testing-results/

https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idOVCCIUZCJ

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/05/president-tanzania-didnt-trust-sent-samples-sheep-goats-bunny-trees-fruit-car-oil-covid-testing-results/

https://www.reuters.com/video/watch/idOVCCIUZCJ




Even more shocking is

experience of some nurses

who sent in unused swabs

for testing – they all came

back positive.

This cannot even be the

failure of the test, more

likely outright fraud.


https://twitter.com/queenalmamarie/status/12

77626638105292800

https://twitter.com/Abrooksy77/status/1277778961385357318

https://twitter.com/queenalmamarie/status/1277626638105292800

https://twitter.com/Abrooksy77/status/1277778961385357318




Could this get worse? Yes.

A lot of the coronavirus tests

were found to have been

contaminated with the virus!

Not only does the test not test

for covid with any accuracy, it

may infect you with covid.

Is this by accident? Each time?


https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/test-kits-

contaminated-new-brunswick-1.5534125

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-

tests-uk-contaminated-covid-19

https://www.newsmax.com/us/test-kits-

contaminated-pandemic-

washington/2020/04/22/id/964199/

https://arstechnica.com/s

cience/2020/04/cdcs-

failed-coronavirus-tests-

were-tainted-with-

coronavirus-feds-confirm/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/test-kits-contaminated-new-brunswick-1.5534125

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-tests-uk-contaminated-covid-19

https://www.newsmax.com/us/test-kits-contaminated-pandemic-washington/2020/04/22/id/964199/

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/cdcs-failed-coronavirus-tests-were-tainted-with-coronavirus-feds-confirm/




A healthcare worker’s

experience in two nursing

homes seemed to suggest

that after the mandatory

testing the nursing homes

went from having zero

cases to having many with

lots of people dying.





So, based on the tests, we have very

little idea whether someone does or

doesn’t have covid.

What happens then when someone

dies? Well, we don’t require either a

definite assertion that covid was the

likely cause of death or a positive covid

test to class a death a “covid fatality”.

Number of deaths inflated

8. The deaths

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-way-covid-deaths-are-being-counted-is-a-national-scandal





At a time when accurate death

statistics would be particularly

important, the rules have been

changed in ways that make them less

reliable than ever.

For the reported “covid deaths”, we

don’t know if the disease was actually

present, and if it was, we don’t know if

it was responsible for the death.


8. The deaths






Instead of trying to get better at determining the

cause of death, the sneaky term “died with covid”

was introduced for cases where the virus may have

been present but there was no reason to believe it

was the primary cause of death.

The official Czech estimate says 60% of those who

had the virus and died did NOT die *of* the virus.

No similar estimate was attempted in the UK.


8. The deaths

https://english.radio.cz/official-covid-19-not-primary-cause-death-60-percent-those-who-have-died-disease-8681831

https://english.radio.cz/official-covid-19-not-primary-cause-death-60-percent-those-who-have-died-disease-8681831




From 29 March the numbers of ‘Covid deaths’ have

included all cases where Covid-19 was simply

mentioned on the death certificate — irrespective

of positive testing and whether or not it may have

been incidental to, or directly responsible for, the

death. From 29 April the numbers include the care

home cases simply considered likely to be Covid-19.

Sometimes even murder is reported as “died with

covid”…


8. The deaths




It might have been possible to have accurate data by

examining the deceased. But the Chief Coroner issued

guidance on 26 March which seemed designed to keep

Covid-19 cases out of the coronial system.

Normally, two doctors are needed to certify a death, one of

whom has been treating the patient or who knows them and

has seen them recently. That has changed. For Covid-19 only,

the certification can be made by a single doctor, and there is

no requirement for them to have examined, or even met, the

patient.


8. The deaths

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Chief-Coroner-Guidance-No.-34-COVID-19_26_March_2020-.pdf

https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Chief-Coroner-Guidance-No.-34-COVID-19_26_March_2020-.pdf




BMA letter instructs GPs that

a telephone consultation in

the last 28 days is sufficient to

establish that the person may

have had covid like symptoms.

In such a case the death

certificate must state

coronavirus as the cause of

death!


8. The deaths

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2284/bma-letter-to-moj-death-certification-in-covid-19.pdf

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2284/bma-letter-to-moj-death-certification-in-covid-19.pdf




BMA guidance encourages classifying even low

probability cases as covid deaths.

The BMA letter on “Verification of Death,

Completion of Medical Certificates of Cause of

Death” (April) says “it is important that likely

covid-19 deaths are reported as such”.

This has led to some doctors going so far as saying

“here we are putting all elderly deaths as covid-

19”.


8. The deaths

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2324/bma-verification-of-death-vod-april-2020.pdf

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2324/bma-verification-of-death-vod-april-2020.pdf




As the symptoms of covid are very similar to the

symptoms of the common cold or the flu, the

reported number of covid deaths is obviously inflated

since a telephone conversation in the last few weeks

is sufficient basis to class a fatality a “covid death”.

The NHS adding vague symptoms like “loss of taste”

to the list only serves to further increase the number

of covid “diagnoses”.


8. The deaths

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-18/loss-of-smell-or-taste-added-to-nhs-covid-19-symptoms-list/

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-18/loss-of-smell-or-taste-added-to-nhs-covid-19-symptoms-list/




A lot of data are unreported.

For example, how many are dying of Covid acquired in

hospitals? Data presumably exist on this, but are not

released.

Or why is the average age of those who died not

reported? If we calculate this from the ONS data for May,

the average age works out at around 87 as more than

half of those who died were over 90. In April it was 85, in

March 84. Meanwhile life expectancy in the UK is 81.

Data obfuscated

8. The deaths

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmay2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinapril2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020




It is valuable to track every piece of information.

It is legitimate to count those who died *with* covid present

(ideally broken down into those with symptoms and those

with no covid symptoms).

It is legitimate to list deaths where there was no opportunity

for testing as likely covid if indeed it was likely covid.

But these categories should be counted separately from

deaths where the presence of the virus was confirmed AND it

likely was the cause of death.

Data obfuscated

8. The deathsAdding up everything to call it

the covid death count is simply inflating the numbers

for no legitimate reason

Not tested; symptoms that may

be covid but not obviously so

Not tested; obvious covid symptoms

Virus confirmed; covid symptoms

present but primary cause of death not

covid

Virus confirmed; cause of death likely

covid

Virus confirmed; covid symptoms not

present




In summary, everyone who dies “with” covid is listed as a covid death, including those who had no covid symptoms and very obviously died of something else. The inaccuracy of covid tests and the large number of false positives further exacerbates this.

At the same time, GPs have been instructed to list anyone with ‘covidlike symptoms’ as a covid death, even if they didn’t test positive.

Tracking all of these makes sense. Adding them all up and calling them “covid deaths” is wildly inaccurate and serves to significantly inflate the reported number of covid fatalities.

8. The deaths




Sceptikat says:

This makes no sense.

8. The deaths



Join us for Part 9 – Why so callous about lives lost if they didn’t die of/with covid?



Thank you for watching

You can reach me (Kat, Sceptikat) at [email protected]

(Andrew and Kat see it)

or privately at

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

does this make sense to you?€¦ · from 29 march the numbers of covid deaths have included all...

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