DOCUMENT RESUME

ED 297 439 EA 020 165

AUTHOR Cooper, Harry A.

TITLE Strategic Planning in Education: A Guide forPolicymakers.

INSTITUTION National Association of State Boards of Education,Alexandria, VA.

PUB DATE 85

NOTE 17p.

PUB TYPE Guides - Non-Classroom Use (055)

EDRS PRICE MFO1 /PCO1 Plus Postage.

DESCRIPTORS *Definitions; *Demography; *Educational Planning;Elementary Secondary Education; *Futures (ofSociety); Politics; Social Change; TechnologicalAdvancement; *Trend Analysis

IDENTIFIERS *Strategic Planning

ABSTRACTAs defined in chapter I of this guide for

policymakers, strategic planning is the method by which anorganization identifies relevant trends in its environment, analyzestheir potential implications, and projects an integrated strategy toaddress these future events and their contingencies. This processdiffers from formalized planning, based on internal organizationalgoals and priorities and viewing external forces as obstacles orincentives to their achievement. Strategic planning's benefits foreducation, as for business, can be measured in terms of savings,improved public image, responsivenesss to social ilaeds, and effectiveperformance of an important mission. Chapter II helps policymakersidentify major trends concerning demographics, economics, technologyand lifestyle, and politics and values. Implications for U.S.schooling are also analyzed. Chapter III illustrates a nine-stepstrategic planning process involving (1) a planning focus; (2) atrend statement; (3) a trend analysis; (4) a need for actionstatement; (5) a resource audit; (6) an action priority; (7) anorganizational response; (8) a strategic plan; and (9) a restatementof mission. Chapter IV provides "starter" exercises on two topics:the computer revolution and the growth of language minorities.Chapter V concludes the paper by outlining planning elements in thepolicy arena, such as foresight, goal-setting, budgeting, managementand evaluation, and leadership. (MLH)

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Strategic Planningin Education:

A GUIDE FOR POLICYMAKERS

BY HARRY A. COOPER

A Publication of the

\i)National Association of State Boards of Education

701 North Fairfax StreetAlexandria, Virginia 22314

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS;

The National Association of State Boards of Education gratefullyacknowledges the state board chairmen who generously participatedin the 1984 Leadership Conference at Breckenridge, Colorado. Theirthoughts and experiences gave us a basis for this publication.

We extend appreciation to Dr. George Wilkinson, United Way of Amer-ica, for his central role in facilitating the Leadership Conference, toHarry Cooper for writing and editing this publication, and to TerriPerun for her support in its development and completion.

©1985

National Association ofState Boards of Education

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I.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

I. Defining Strategic Planning 1

II Scanning Our Environment forMain Trends 3

III. Working with Strategic Planning 6

PI. Two Starter Exercises: ComputerTechnology and Language Minorities 8

V. Planning in the Policy Arena 12

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I. DEFINING STRATEGIC PLANNING

Our society, it is fair to say, has become preoccu-pied with the future. The business of spotting newtrends has now become a trend itself. Such organiza-tions as Futures Group, Forecasting International,Westrend Group and the World Future Society areflourishing. Several factors the increasing rate ofsocial change the tightening relationship of economicand political life, world interdependency, the mount-ing supply of statistical information and sophisticatedmeans to analyze it all these have contributed tothe boom in the future. Businesses are seeking tocapitalize on the new information technologies to getthe jump in a fiercely competitive world. Our interestas individuals is equally keen. Whether inspired bymillenial hopes or fears the promises of technologyor the spectre of depletion or destruction we lookanxiously ahead to what the future may or may nothold.

The future is uncertain, and we must be skepticalof all who claim otherwise. However, barring naturalor man-made catastrophes, which have always beenhistory-changing forces, there is much that we doknow with some assurance. For instance, we knowthat our population is undergoing a profound aging;that minorities of all kinds will soon constitute one-third of our youth; that the role of women at homeand work is changing dramatically, affecting bothjobs and the family; that new high-technologies arerevolutionizing production and also contributing tothe shift towards a service economy; and that thepolitics of the future will be marked by special inter-ests competing for scarce resources. All these trends,which we will discuss at some length in the secondchapter, have important implications for education;most of them we can begin planning fcr today.

These are among the trends we feel we know best.Yet in every discussion of the future, we must bevigilant in defining our terms and scrutinizing ourown analysis. Even professional forecasters, whodraw on an impressive array of data and method,often end up with very different scenarios. Take theissue of cultural diversity, for example. Are we be-coming more diverse and demanding correspondinglymore varied goods and services, in a phenomenonthat has been called "demassification"? Or is massproduction and communication making us more uni-form, in both developed and less developed nations,as many observers believe? The answer, if there isone, depends on definition of terms (who is "we"?),framing of the problem (what should be considered

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as "culture"?), data to be considered (statistical oranecdotal? economic, sociological, or psychological?),and the values and prejudices of the forecaster. Themore broadly a question is framed, the less likely itwill be to have a single answer. Remember: thosewho forecast the future can justify present policies,and those who frame the questions we pose of thefuture often control the debate. Planning is by naturepolitical.

Strategic planning is no exception to all of thisis it not an objective process. The need to define terms,frame the problem, clarify assumptions and uncovervalues is crucial to clear-sighted planning. Whatstrategic planning can do is outline, limit, and man-age the tricky process of planning for futures. Focus-ing on an individual organization and its mission,strategic planners selectively scan the outside envi-ronment for well-defined trends which promise tohave the greatest impact on the organization, andthen trace all their possible consequences. In otherwords:

Strategic planning is the mei: od by whichan organization identifies relevant trendsin its environment, analyzes their potentialimplications, and projects an integratedstrategy to address these future events andtheir contingencies.

Before we examine this definition in detail, let uspose a question which is probably on your mind atthis point: How does strategic planning differ fromstandard planning, and why does it merit specialconsideration?

Although there are as many types of planning asthere are organizations, it is fair to say that typicalplanning is generated by internal organizational goalsand priorities. The typical plan charts a course ofaction to achieve these goals, accounting for externalforces primarily as obstacles or incentives to theirachievement. The process is often formal and theproduct is schematic, documenting and projectingcurrent activity in relation to stated objectives of theorganization.

Strategic planning reverses this emphasis. It be-"gins with a careful, look at the operating environmentof the organization, and proceeds to develop a re-sponsive plan, fitting internal goals and capabilitiesto external trends. In a sense. then, strategic planningmay seem more reactive than standard approaches; it

5

accepts the limitations of the environment. In a moreimportant sense, however, strategic planning is pro-active: it seeks an educated jump on the future.

If a main focus of typical planning is accountability, the emphasis of strategic planning is foresight.This foresight is achieved through a dynamic, informalprocess which results in a forward-looking frameworkof priorities and directions for the organization. Whenthis framework is completed by the more formalprocesses of management and evaluation (see thefinal chapter), the result is an effective strategic plancombining foresight with accountability.

Strategic planning is now emerging as a powerful,general policymaking tool. Yet it was pioneered bybusinesses seeking to respond to novel, specific con-cerns. In the late 1960s, projecting that civil rightsprotest and student unrest would herald broadersocial change and government regulation, a fewbusinesses started to build projected "environmental"changes into their long-range planning. GeneralElectric, an early pioneer, began placing women andminorities in management tracks well before theEqual Employment Opportunity Commission issuedguidelines, and thus avoided the less efficient rush tocomply which faced other companies. Only a fewfirms had this foresight. Most industries were alsoslow to see public environmental concern and theapproach of government regulation, with costly re-sults to them in terms of profit and public image.

In recent years, the path from interest group pres-sure to public concern to media coverge to govern-ment action has been well-traveled, making corporatestrategic planning somewhat easier. Since the mid-70s,the "foresight" component of business planning hasimproved. Industries have adopted an "issues man-agement" process (the term was coined in 1975) tomonitor every step of the issues pathway and to in-fluence or prepare for each one in advance. Today,many businesses are moving from a rigid framework,in which strategic planning is performed only by aspecial office or division, to a more integrated ap-proach, employing strategic thinking in all phases ofdecisionmaking. Used by only a handful of firms five

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years ago, a strategic planning process now guidethe decisions of over 150 corporations.

Profit, competitive advantage, control of an uneas,relationship with government and tin. public thee,motives may seem foreign to the enterprise of educetion. Yet education does need strategic plannin;today, as badly as bcsiness did fifteen years ago. Th,emphasis and approach may differ, but the needs ansimilar.

Perhaps more than with business, our system 01education is affected by public attitudes. In a time 0tax revolts, shrinking budgets and disaffection witl.government, public support must be actively wonnot assumed. The federal government's changirirole must be watched closely for its effects on sucl,groups as handicapped, disadvantaged, non-Englishspeaking, and college bound students. Educator.must work closely with local government units atheir influence increases. More broadly, shifts hpopulations, values, leisure, technology and all facetof home and work affect how well schools fulfill theimission, and how that mission nil. evolve.

Strategic planning for a non-profit enterprisr; suclas education does present special challenges. Busines.planning services the overriding goal of corporatehealth and profit. Education planning, hov; ever, musserve bewildering, often implicit goals, economicsocial and political. Effective education plannin.must encompass a broad time frame, from short-terr.funding cycles (which have too often been the limeof governmental planning) to long-term social needand trends. And education planning must take intoaccount the broad range of social forces which infleence the mission of public schooling.

Of course, we cannot hope to anticipate or foreseeverything. But the planning method we will presen.by relating internal needs and goals to external force:is one step towards meeting the challenges ahea(.The benefits, for education as for business, can itmeasured in terms of savings, improved public imagtresponsiveness to social needs, and the effective pciformance of an important mission.

II. SCANNING OUR ENVIRONMENTFOR THE MAIN TRENDS

The first step in effective strategic planning is toexplore the broad forces at work in society, which is,after all, the larger context of any particular organiza-tion. In this chapter, we will look at the trends whichseem most likely to shape American society throughthe rest of this century and into the next, and their

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fit DE1 !O GRAPHICS

I TRENDSIt is said that we are a nation of immigrants, an agingnation, a nation on the move. All are true. More thanany other factor, shifts and changes in populationhave defined our country, and will continue to do so.

The Aging Baby Boom. This great bulge in ourpopulation will continue to shape and strainou stitutions as it moves forward in time.

h the '80s, the 35-44 age group willgro 40%. Then, starting in 1990, seniors willbegin' a rapid rise, probably doubling theirnumbers between the years 2000 and 2050.They will be the most educated, politically ac-tive group of oldir Americans ever.

Minorities. The growth of minorities has notbeen a "boom," but rather a steadily growingwave. Though Black growth has slowed some-what, the Hispanic population is soaring, by60% over the last ten years. They will prob I

be our largest minority by 1990. And wenow absorbing our second biggest immigrantflood ever, largely of Asian and island peoples.By 2000, California and 53 cities will have"minority majorities."

Mobility. While overall growth of our popula-tion is slowing, we are rapidly moving southand west. Those regions grew over 20% in the'70s, and no end is in sight. U.S. News andWorld Report called it "the most pronounceddemographic shift of this era." In addition, theflight to suburbs continues unabated, and evennon-metropolitan areas are showing an increase.

Youth. We are now starting to feel the small butsignificant "echo" of the baby boom. The dropin school enrollment is turning around thisyear for K-4 students, and fill refill high

3

implications for education. Such a discussion couldbe organized in many ways, given all the interrela-tionships at work. We will consider the four headingsof demographics, economics, technology and lifestyle,and politics and values.

schools and colleges somewhat in the future,although less in the "frost belt" By 1990, thevery young and very old will both be importantparts of our population.

IMPLICATIONSThe implications of all this are great. To put it broadly,our major challenge in the years ahead is to providean increasingly diverse nation with consistent edu-cational opportunity across ethnic, geographic, ageand socio-economic divisions.

To meet the needs of minorities, we must targetprograms in early childhood education through pre-college education for groups at risk. An unmet chal-lenge for the '80s is to raise Hispanic college enroll-ment and retention.

Adult education will become increasingly impor-tant as workers retrain and older citizens exercisetheir educational rights. In this field, we must defineour role in relation to industry, government andvoluntary organizations, Ivho are currently by far themain providers.

The decisions we make today concerning languageeducation, both English and other languages for allstudents, will dictate how well we communicate as asociety tomorrow. A vigorous approach to both willbe the fairest solution to a politically volatile ques-tion.

Facilitating the movement of teachers and re-sources to regions where they are most needed willbe a major challenge. Cooperation between states, forinstance, in agreeing on credential transfer for teachers.will be essential.

In view of the projected upturn in elementaryenrollment nationally, areas that have been experi-encing declines should evaluate school closing deci-sions carefully. Another option is "merging" schoolswith other social services, so that buildings can re-main open through sharing.

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ECONOMICS

TRENDSWe may not know what will happen to the economytomorrow, but we are aware of some sobering long-term trends. Most of them are driven by the demo-graphics we have just considered.

Dependency. As our population ages, the"dependency ratio" the ratio of active work-ers to retirees will grow worae. And by and k

large, young minorities will be supporting an \

older white population. Thus high poverty ratesfor Blacks and Hispanics, which have persistedthrough the 70's and 80's, do not bode well forsociety as a whole.,

Women and the Family. The participation ofwomen in the work force will continue to ap-proach the rate for men, and the number of two-earner families will rise accordingly. Thenumber of single-parent families is also up:almost half of the children born in 1980 willbasically be raised by one parent. This has beentrue of Black families for years: over 40% ofthem are female-run. In short: expanded mul-tiple roles for women.

Retraining the Workforce. Because of demo-graphics, 90% of the 1990 workforce is alreadyon the job, and these workers face major changesand dislocations. First, there is the historic shiftfrom a manufacturing to a service-based econ-omy, which has been underway for some timeand may be stabilizing. Second, there are themajor effects, as yet unclear, which new tech-nologies will have on both of these sectors.

Regionalism. As the South and West continueto post income gains and attract high-technologyand energy industries, regional disparities willincrease. The deterioration of the urban infra-structure, as well as the older suburbs, will be amajor problem in overrun Sunbelt cities aswell as in the North.Internationalization. The era of post-war U.S.primacy, economic and political, is over. The

TECHNOLOGY AND LIFESTYLE

O TRENDSThe epochal high-technology revolution is all aroundus, yet its future effects, both long- and short-term,are uncertain. There is disagreement about the typesof new jobs that will be created and about how fartechnology will define our lifestyle of the future.

jobs (short-term). The shortage of technicalprofessionals will continue through the 80's.But the revolution in computers and relatedtechnologies will produce fewer skilled jobs

I

soaring national debt, the over-valued dollarand the influx of cheaper foreign goods are ii

dicators of current and future shift and straiin the international order. Mutual understan(ing and agreement must provide the basis f(healthy competition and coexistence.

10 IMPLICATIONSAbove all, the "dependency ratio" holds an importailesson for education. Providing equal education;opportunity for minorities and women in all field,including math and science, is a matter of nation.survival, since these are tomorrow's workers.

The influx of women into the workforce will phi(great demands on day care. It will also make recruitiifor the lower-paid, lower-status jobs traditionalheld by women including teaching more difficteuntil action is taken to equalize pay and beneficompared to other professions.

The changing nature of family life divorc.single-parenting, two-earner families will malgrowing up difficult and confusing for many yourpeople. The steadily rising teen suicide rate (noover 5,000/year) is one symptom among many. Conseling, family life education, and schooling and mterials at all levels must reflect these new realities.

Business and industry are well aware of the ne(for an educated workforce, as shown by thousandspartnerships with schools now in place. The ch;lenge for education: to be flexible in accepting c(laborations and active in fostering them. This conhelp compensate for math and science teacher shoages, as well as build a long-term business- educati'relationship.

Viewed nationally, education will have tospond to increasing disparities among regions abetween cities and suburbs. The problem will bepromote equitable financing within the contextlimited resources.

Finally, our education system must enterglobal community. Understanding world langua;and cultures is crucial for robust intellectual aeconomic life today.

than once thought. Most new jobs will be el(cal, janitorial, sales and fast food-related, amany of these will involve low-level interactwith a computer. The high technology revolutiin other words, is part of the broader shiftwide variety of service industries.

Lifestyle (short-term). The impact of computand computer-aided technology is inevitalIt is estimated that 80 million home computwill be in use by the year 2000, or almost (for each home that now has television. Po:

bilities for shopping, working and learning athome are great, but how much we will want tosacrifice "getting out" is uncertain.

Jobs (long-term). As computerstake on routinetasks, it is possible that most work will requiremore skill and higher-level thinking, placing ahigher premium on education. However,another scenario is a bi-level workforce, withmany more operatives than controllers of thenew technology. The reality will probably fallbetween, with many jobs enhanced by technol-ogy and many others remaining routine.

Lifestyle (long-term). More work at home couldlead to changes in the lifetime work patterns aswell. Traditional work-retirement could yieldto cycles of work, education, and train-ing. Later (or part-time) retirement, which savessocial costs, is already becoming popular.

10 IMPLICATIONSWhatever scenario proves true, one -thing is clear.Schools will have to prepare students to adapt to

-POLITICS AND VALUES

TRENDSPolitics is probably the least certain area for predic-tion, since the business of detecting political andvalue shifts is extremely subjective, and such trendsare known to be precarious. With that in mind, hereare some suggestions.

Special Interests. Politics seems to be followingthe lead of social institutions in that it is be-coming diverse and multiple. The number ofindependent voters continues to rise, indicatingthe ascendancy of issue over party-voting.Special interests and political action commit-tees are exerting greater power.

Individualism. Citizens are actively pursuingtheir own particular interests themselves. Taxrevolts, class action suits, referenda, initiativesand litigation of all kinds, it seems, are here tostay.

Decentralization. Decisionmaking has becomemore and more decentralized, reflecting bothideology and increasing regional diversity. Amajor issue to be decided centrally, however,will be the distribution of resources among re-gions. Increasing congressional representation(due to population) in the South and West willbe a factor in the outcome.

Limited Resources. In the federal budget, socialprograms will suffer as defense spending andretirement payments, it seems, will continue to

change as never before. The ability to learn and con-ceptualize will become as important as factualknowledge and specific skills.

Jobs will demand frequent retraining to keep upwith technology. And as patterns of work and leisurechange, education will help people make creativeuse of their time. These trends, together with theaging of the population, will call for schools to be-come vigorous providers of continuing education.

The immediate problem for schools, however, iswhat to do with the revolution in their own backyard.The computer is arguably the most important educa-tional tool since the printing press. It is still a relativenewcomer in the classroom, but its use cannot affordto lag.

The standard approach of a computer class likea typing class is fast becoming irrelevant, since thetechnology is changing and growing easier all thetime. Computers are best used as an educational tool,with promising applications through curricula andin all grades. Of course, substantial change will beneeded in classroom organization and teachingmethod. The experience of businesses which havealready made the difficult transition should be a val-uable resource.

climb. At the same time, state budgets, whichhave remained fairly level for the last ten years,show no signs of change. Thus states willstruggle to pick up dropped federal services,and education will have to compete to maintainits share of this pie.

IMPLICATIONSAs decisionmaking becomes increasingly local andregional, education will be faced with the challengeof building a political base of support from which tocompete for limited resources. Building coalitionsacross parties and interests will become crucial asthe political landscape diversifies.

For state boards of education in particular, thiswill involve defining and consolidating a role inrelation to other policymakers, both within and out-side the education community. Close links should befostered with local and regional planners.

Frequent hearings, disputes and threatened liti-gation will continue to be a problem for education ingeneral and state boards in particular, unless alter-native resolution procedures can be promoted.

Another manifestation of the trend towards indi-vidualism has been the exercise of choice in school-ing and the rise of home schools, religious funda-mentalist schools, and private schools generally.State boards should focus on strengthening the baseof support for public education, fostering alreadyimproved relations with established private schools,and avoiding unnecessary conflicts.

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III. WORKING WITH STRATEGIC PLANNING

Now that we have reviewed a number of signifi-cant social trends, and their dynamics and implica-tions, where do we go from here? Even such a highlycondensed overview of our environment seemsoverwhelming, for we know a great deal about whatour society will look like in the near future, and thevarious paths it may take further ahead.

No organization can hope to consider and plan forevery social change. The key to strategic planning isto select the trends which promise to be most relevantto the organization and its mission, and then plan forthose as exhaustively as possible. This may involveorganizational reappraisal, clarification of personalvalues, and soul-searching in no small measure. It ishard work, but the process is a rewarding one.

The step-by-step strategic planning method wewill outline and sample here is based roughly on asystem developed by United Way of America for itselfand other not-for-profit organizations, which wasbased, in turn, on corporate models. It was outlinedfor us at the Breckenridge conference and at theNASBE Annpal Meeting in October by George Wilkin-son of the United Way. What follows is our ownadaptation for state board members and other educa-tion policymakers.

The process works best in small groups, whichmakes it ideal for state boarils of education. We havenot specified the particular operation of the planningsessions. This depends on you and the culture ofyour organization. However, we have recommendedseveral special techniques which are particularlyuseful at various points in the planning process.

STEP ONE: Planning FocusIdentify and describe the focus of your planningyour organization or agency and its mission. Thisshould include a general statement of vision and alist of goals, responsibilities or objectives. The mis-sion may be stated broadly at first; you may find your-self refining it later. The outcome of planning isstrategy to help your organization fulfill its mission.

Irl STEP TWO: Trend StatementIdentify and accurately state the major trends influ-encing your organization now and in the future. Inscanning for these trends, consider four possible areas:the "macro-environment," or general societal trends(such as we considered in the last chapter); the"industrial environment," or trends that will affect

your industry (education) in particular; the "comne.titive environment," or trends among institutionsthat provide similar services to yours or compete forcommon funds; and the "internal environment," ortrends within your organization that will affect itsability to respond to external pressures.

Ol STEP THREE: Trend AnalysisConsider the impacts of these trends on your organization and its mission. To do this, choose one trendand frame several strategic issues which you thinkthe trend will raise for your organization. Then, foreach issue, consider all the strategic challenges(threats and opportunities) which that issue mightpresent.

Figure 1. Futures Wheel

A "futures wheel" (Figure 1) is a useful tool fiexploring the implications of any issue. Placing tl,main issue at center, the planning group spins o!implications in a brainstorm session, building ob.wards to third- and fourth -order effects. The grouthen labels each implication as "threat" or "oppotuni ty," and uses the diagram as a springboard 1

further discussion.

STEP FOUR: Need for ActionRate the probable need for action on each strateg,challenge. For each threat and opportunity, discuits degree of impact or importance, probabilityoccurrence, timing immediate, near (1-2 year,

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mid-range (3-5 years), or distant (6 or more years).and whether it falls under mandated or discretionaryresponsibility of your organization. Taken together,these factors represent the need for action, to be ratedlow, medium or high for each challenge.

l STEP FIVE: Resource AuditRate the probable ability of your organization torespond to each challenge. To cetermine your abilityto influence or respond effectively to each challenge,briefly consider your relevant strengths and weak-nesses: the resources, expertise and authority ofyourorganization in that area and the limits to that power.Rate your organization's ability to influence or re-spond effectively as low, medium or high for eachchallenge. The "nominal group technique," or secretballot approach, is effective in these steps for elicitingunswayed opinions. The tallied results are then usedas a basis for further discussion.

10. STEP SIX: Action PriorityRank the challenges in order of priority for action.rhe "action priority' of any issue is the product of:teed for action (Step Four) and ability to respondStep Five).

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NEED FOR ACTION

High Medium Low

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4)

Figure 2. Decision MatrixA simple tool like the "decision matrix" (Figure 2)can aid in ranking any group of objects along twocommon dimensions. Using the matrix if you find ithelpful, rank the challenges from top to bottom inpriority. No matter what techniques are used, thesetting of priorities is a difficult, subjective problem,best addressed by open full-group discussion.

Xo STEP SEVEN: Organizational Response. onsider possible organizational responses to these:hallenges. The heart of the planning begins here:ieciding where to focus response and resources, and: hat action to plan. You have simplified the task,iowever, by identifying priority areas within the-end under discussion. This analysis should readilyurface a number of possible strategic directions oresponses. Starting at the top of the action priorityist, consider possible responses to each challenge,iiscassing the prospects, feasibiliy, costs and reper-vsS;ons of each response. Note that planned actionn one area may positively or negatively affect your

ability to respond to other challenges. The "futureswheel" may be helpful again in (racing the internaland external implications of a given response."Scenario building" organizing challenge andresponse into several probable patterns or sequencesof events is a further way to conceptualize plan-ning alternatives.

O STEP EIGHT: Stretegir. PlanIntegrate your analysis of organizational responsesinto a strategic plan. Drawing'on your discussion inthe last step, select and organize your favc,red re-sponses into an integral plan. The strategic plan isbest presented as a planning brief, which should in-clude:

a restatement of the environmental trend inquestion, and the strategic issues raised for theorganization;

a listing of threats and opportunities posed bythese issues;

a ranking of these challenges by action priority,noting need for action (impact, timing, proba-bility) and your organization's ability to influ-ence each issue;

a primary timetable of organizational response,assigning tasks, cost, responsible agencies orindividuals, and completion dates, as far aspossible;

a contingency plan or plans, less detailed thanthe primary timetable, to be used as a starterpia:. if specified threats or opportunities provemore or less significant than assumed.

a back-up discussion explaining the selectionof the base and contingency plans with refer-ence to the trends, challenges, priorities, andresponses developed above.

You will find that not every trend in questionleads to the formulation ofa full strategic plan. Recordthe ideas developed anyway. They may be relevant tosubsequent sessions, when the group returns to StepThree and initiates consideration of another majortrend.

STEP NINE: Restatement ofMission (optional)

Revise or expand your initial mission statement(Step One) to reflect and structure strategic plans. Aviable mission statement encompasses the prioritiesand plans of your organization. Reviewing yourcompleted planning session, formulate a general ob-jective for your organization in addressing the trendin question, as well as several strategic directionswhich reflect the specific responses you have planned.Integrating this into the mission statement will allowfuture budgeting and evaluation (see Chapter Five) totie in directly to your organizational objectives andpriorities.

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IV. TWO STARTER EXERCISES: COMPUTERTECHNOLOGY AND LANGUAGE MINORITIES

To help you begin thinking in a strategic planningmode, lot us rehearse the first stages of a hypotheticalplanning process for two strategic environmentaltrend: the computer technology revolution and thegrowth of non-English speaking minorities. Thesetwo trends promise to have high educational impacts.They also demonstrate the range and flexibility ofstrategic planning applications. You may think ofeach exercise as the first half of a planning brief.whose revision and completion is up to you. Much of

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the material for this example was drawn from theBreckenridge conference. Ti is information presenteeis general: you may wish to complete the brief in relation to your own local experience or specific policysetting. You may well disagree with some 1.7 thespecific assertions that follow; all planning hassubjective clement. Our hope is to stimulate yourreactions and your thinking in a strategic plannitil.mode.

EXERCISE ONE: PLANNING FOR THE -comPpTER iavoLtinolm7ala.

00. STEP ONE: Planning FocusFocus: state boards of education, collectively(NASBE) and individually. Mission: to provide athorough and efficient education throughout eachstate, using the support and pooled resources of theassociation.

O' STEP TWO: Trend StatementThe Computer Revolution. The proliferation of com-puters at home, school and work to perform a growingnumber of tasks is revolutionizing our way of life. By1990, it is estimated that half of working Americanswill be making use of electronic terminals on the job.8.3 million personal computers were sold last year,and the number in use may reach 80 million (about asmany homes as now have TVs) by the year 2000. Ineducation, the computer is still a relative newcomer.Three-fourths of all school districts use computers inclassrooms, but a twenty-fold increase is needed tobring computers within reach of all students eachday. Computers are redefining the knowledge andskills we need. Elementary pupils now spend lesstime on caicuation. It is thought that most of an en-gatear's lf,nowle.kte becomes either obsoLte or COM-

uterized every .1 ide. Clearly the opportunitiesan threats- aosed by this revolution are great, and

p5pt.as2 of our educational system to the chal-' 3 still uncertain.

THREE: Trend Analysis(rc.; ins of space. only challenges with fairlyhigh imp'. lance and probability have been retainedin this 1).. '

ISSUE 1 Education for a Technological FutureStudents should be prepared to meet the changin:,

demands of the workplace and to understand the

social implications of a computerized world.Opportunity (distant) As computers continua

to take over routine work functions. jobs will dement:more skills, higher-level thinking and continuoieretraining, while leisure time will grow. Educationand the ability to learn will become increasingly valuable in all aspects of life.

Threat (immediate) Displacement of manufatluring and service workers by computer-aided feel'nology, and a ::.omparatively small rise in jobs fotechnicians gad programmers. compared to clericand manual workers, will make the workplace confusing and frustrating for many.

Opportunity (mid-term) - The rapid pace t+technological change will provide new intellectutchallenges for secondary classrooms, comprising sue'issues as privacy and communication, intelligent,and computing. and engineering and society.

ISSUE 2 The Role and Organization of SchoolThe educational possibilities and demands

technology will make home an work efficient lean-ing centers, and may alter school organization atcord ingly.

Threat (near) If math and science educatit,and teaching are now revqalized, intensive on-the-ji,training may eclipse the classroom as providervocational preparatio;t.

Opportunity and threat (mid-term) The rapirise of home computing and educational software refresents an important learning resource if linked anintegrated with school. as well as a competitor to telt

vision. Yet if ignored by schools, home computerscould become, like television, an uneven distractionfrom the school curriculum.

Opportunity (immediate) The current interest ofbusiness in collaborating with schools could, if edu-cators demonstrate eagerness and flexibility, becomea significant new resource.

ISSUE 3 Changes in Teaching and LearningComputers open new vistas in educational method,

but significant rethinking of current practice will beneeded to exploit this possibility.

Opportunity (near) computers can be used acrossthe curriculum both as drill/tutorial devices and toteach higher-level skills through games, simulations,and tocl-making to solve problems. However, thesehigher applications require a degree of studentautonomy and an emphasis on intuitive, conceptuallearning that runs counter to current educationaltrends.

Threat (near) Failure to explore fully the poten-tial of computers now in schools may weaken themomentum of acquisition and leave education wellbehind the rest of society in computer use. Structuralissues such as market size and software piracythreaten to handicap schools in relation to homecomputer use.

ISSUE 4 Fair Access to Technology

An expensive technology raises the problem offair distribution among all students, a problem exa-cerbated by home computing and local purchasinginitiatives.

Threat (near) While unequal distribution ofcomputers should be expected at first, studies haveshown high concentration of computers in largesuburban schools, and the greater use of computersby the best students. This issue is magnified by theownership pattern for home computers. The problemis especially appropriate for state education leadersto address.

O STEPS 4 and 5: Need for Actionand Resource Audit

1. Technology challenges schools by expandingthe creative potential in work and leisure. Needfor action: low. Ability to respond: medium.

2. Technology causes workplace change and dis-locations. Need for action: high. Ability to re-spond: low.

3. Technology raises new issues for theclassroom. Need for action: low. Ability to re-spond: medium.

4. Intensive on-the-job training threatens theschool role in vocational education. Need foraction: medium. Ability to respond: medium.

5. Home computing boom may upset or comple-ment the school curriculum. Need for action:high. Ability to respond: low.

6. Business interest offers schools a collaborativeresource. Need for action: medium. Ability torespond: high.

7. The computer represents a fundamentally newlearning tool. Need for action: high. Ability torespond: high.

8. Schools threaten to lag behind home and workin computer use. Need for action: high. Abilityto respond: medium.

9. Unequal distribution and access may imbalanceschool computer use. Need for action: high.Ability to respond: medium.

STEP 6: Action Priority(Questions of priority are highly subjective, sincemargins for error and disagreement in consideringimpact, timing, probability and ability to influenceare multiplied.)

EXAMPLE: 7 9 8 6 5 4 2 3 1high average low(This "scale ranking" methodmay help the group to visualizethe process of assigning priorities)

0. STEPS 7 and 8: OrganizationalResponse and Strategic Plan

(These are left to you! Refer back to the previouschapter for guidance. You may continue to considerthe issue globally, or apply it to your particular posi-tion and setting.)

r

, 77T 74SVMI: 1.tt' 7 'MT rEANNIN 7,THE,GROWTIL ,n

f .7'. ', °I.7-,1 U.11.C. ,

UAGEMINORITE2r.

kl STEP 1: Planning FocusFocus: state boards of education, collectively(NASBE) and individually. Mission: to provide athorough and efficient education throughout eachstate, using the support and pooled resources of theassociation.

..._,STEP 2: Trend StatementThe Growth of Language Minorities. Minorities ofall kinds will constitute 20-25% of our population,and 30% of our youth, by 1990. In some states, suchas Texas and California, minorities will constitute 40%of births in that year. By 2000, California and 53 citieswill have "minority majorities." Hispanic peopleswill be our single largest minority, due both to con-tinued immigration and very high population growthrates (about 60% over the last decade). The impact ofthis growth on our schools, and the need to respond,will be tremendous, Exact national statistics on cur-rent numbers of students with English deficienciesare not collected, and future projections are evenmore difficult to make. However, it has been estimatedthat there are 3.6 million students between the agesof five and fourteen now classified as LEP (limited-English-proficient) and receiving special services.The National Center for Education Statistics projectsthat their numbers will increase by 400,000 by theend of the decade and by an additional 600,000 in the1990s. Whatever the exact figures, the great numberof students who speak languages other than English,and who may have various levels of proficiency inEnglish, will represent both a challenge and a re-source for our education system. Specific trendsaffecting education include changes in federal sup-port, new directions in programs for LEP students,ongoing school improvement efforts, unmet chal-lenges of equity and opportunity, and new issues ofcultural maintenance and interchange.

0. STEP 3: Trend Analysis

ISSUE ; : The Role of the States

Decreasing commitment of resources andregulatory control at the federal level will bringchanges in state-local relationships in serving LEP

students.Opportunity (immediate) The apparent federal

return to a "hands off" approach to local programchoices creates an expanded area of states' authorityin the guidance, support, coordination and evaluationof programs.

Threat (near) Previous patterns of close federal-local relations in administering Title VII supporthave left some state bureaucracies without the back-ground or resources needed to fill new roles. Ex-

panded commitments of resources and expertise wbe needed.

ISSUE 2: New Program DirectionsRecent research is demonstrating the effectivem

of a wide range of programs to teach LEP students.Opportunity (near) A wide range of progra

options and strategies bilingual, ESL, structur'immersion, computer assisted instruction is noavailable. States can play a major role in promotiservices by developing program guidelines and stdent classification criteria, and by providing teenical assistance in fitting programs to the differ(needs of various LEP student populations.

ISSUE 3: School Improvement EffortsRecent excellence reforms represent both thre.

and opportunities for LEP students.Threat (near) Action in most states to incre;

credit requirements for graduation and institute p,ficiency testing may adversely affect morale, retenti(and graduation of some LEP students, unless st(are taken to provide alternative procedures or specsupport.

Opportunity (near) The excellence movemand its reforms, by setting a new standard for all sdent achievemc-`, can be used to emphasize the Iintegration of LEP students in the school mainstreai

ISSUE 4: The Challenge of EquityThe under-representation of language minor

students in special programs underlines continuegaps in opportunity.

Threat (mid-term) Continuing poor represertion of Hispanic and other language minority studein special education, vocational classes, giftedtalented programs and other special services threat(to create a bi-level system in which these studeonly receive basic education. Hispanic collegerollment and retention has not yet improved, indi(ing the need for greater efforts for their full inclusin college preparatory education.

Opportunity (near) The interest and supporparents and communities is a key factor in overtcing student language and educational deficits. S'boards can foster this resource by providing fort.for recognition and policy input.

ISSUE 5: Cultural PluralismPopulation statistics indicate that we are enter

a new era i,t which our society will be possibly milingual, and increasingly multi-cultural.

Opportunity (distant) The presence of laynumbers of language minority students in the sch(will represent a major new linguistic and culllearning resource for all students, which can bemalized through new materials and classroomproaches.

Threat (mid-term) Language and cultural main-tenance is a growing concern rmong native Americans,Hispanics, and other minority groups and will con-tinue to be so as educational mainstreaming progresses.Attention to these legitimate concerns through theuse of appropriate, responsive teaching strategiesand materials will promote goals of cultural under-standing, English proficiency for all, and politicalharmony around a potentially volatile issue.

STEPS 4 and 5: Need for Actionand Resource Audit

1. The diminishing federal role creates new stateprogram and policy opportunities. Need foraction: high. Ability to respond: high.

2. Lack of experience and resources handicapssome states in new roles. Need for action: high.Ability to respond: low.

3. New program options create new state leader-ship potentials. Need for action: medium.Ability to respond: high.

4. New graduation requirements may threatenLEP student retention. Need for action: medium.Ability to respond: high.

5. The Excellence movement makes available anew standard for LEP student achievement.Need for action: low. Ability to respond:medium.

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6. Low representation in special or advancedprograms threatens LEP student achievementand college preparation. Need for action: high.Abilty to respond: high.

7. Growing minority parent and community in-terest can be mobilized. Need for action: medium.Ability to respond: medium.

P. Language minority students represent a newlearning resource. Need for action: low. Abilityto respond: medium.

9. Language and cultural maintenance is a grow-ing minority concern. Need for action: low.Ability to respond: medium.

STEP 6: Action Priority

1 6 3 4 2 7 5 9 8high average low

STEPS 7 and 8: OrganizationalResponse and Strategic Plan

(These are left to you! neje- back to the previouschapter for guidance. You may continue to considerthe issue globally, or apply it to your particular posi-tion and setting.)

5

V. PLANNING IN THE POLICY ARENA

If you have followed our look at strategic planningthis far, you now have some understanding of how astrategic planning process may be used by a hypo-thetical' planning group. But, you may ask, how doesall this apply to an actual policymaking body, facingsuch realities as budgeting, management and policyimplementation?

Fortunately, the application is not impossible, oreven that difficult. A state board of education or,

f ,

for that matter, a local board, legislative coagency division or advocacy group itselfnatural strategic planning unit, thanks tosize and existing working relationships. Th.ing suggestions for the practice of planning anprimarily to state boards of education, andapplicable to other groups concerned with e.policy as well. These are notes towards theuse of strategic planning in the policy arena.

FORESIGHT. The "foresight" or "environmental-1- scanning" element of strategic planning, which

we worked through in the second chapter, is a firststep that sets the course for the planning to follow.The key to efficiency in the foresight process, whichcan easily grow out of control due to its potentiallylimitless scope, is the use of existing resources. First,draw on the pool of professional skills within yourimmediate group. Almost any experience in business,politics, economics, humanities or technology willbe useful in focusing the investigation. Second, ex-amine closely the planning efforts of area or statebusiness or governmental units.

Nearly all states have a state planning agency,usually located within the governor's office, or some-times within a management and budget agency. Al-though once concerned mainly with physical andeconomic planning, many of these agencies havebroadened their scope to include health and otherhuman services. Special commissions, legislativestudies and higher education system reports are othersources of ready-made analysis. Some major stateplanning documents of recent years include: "PrivateChoices, Public Strategies" (Blue Ribbon Panel, Stateof Colorado); "Texas Trends" (Texas 2000 Committee,State of Texas); "Choices for Pennsylvania" (Office ofthe Governor); and "The Baby-Boom Generation: Im-pacts on State Revenue and Spending, 1950-2025"(Illinois Budget Office). Such documents not onlycontain background data and projections which caninform your own planning; they are also importantdata in themselves, since their recommendationsmay well affect future private and public decisions.

Z GOAL-SETTING. The planning method we have41 outlined creates strategies to address specific

issues To be influential, the resulting "issue briefs"must be integrated with established goal-setting and

planning processes of your organization. IAyour standard planning cycle (annual, five-ytyou should begin it with strategic planningto develop issue-specific strategies, whichbe translated into the formal statementsplans or objectives used by your organizati(regular planning cycle exists, then your needtute periodic strategic planning is all the more

3 BUDGETING. This function is probablytral constraint on governmental chat

innovation. Standard incremental budgetproaches, which focus decisions on incretreducing allocations for existing objects of (

ture, exacerbate the problem. The use of a :

planning process, preceding and leading ;

budgeting cycle, can afford policymakersperspective, a greater sense of control over prand even increasing creativity and flexibiliilocating admittedly limited resources. Theprogram-based budgeting to determine the to(direct and indirect) of each current andorganizational objective or direction, is a his.ommended planning too Although state heducation do not have final budget authoritdeveloped strategic planning perspective caurably strengthen requests to legislatures annors in the critical process of budget negotiat i

4 MANAGEMENT AND EVALUATION.tional management the translation of g

policies into operations is the essential "enof planning. Linking the strategic plan to opeor managerial plans is essential if policy goalbe realized. Of course, not all strategic goal:-reflected in operations, due to internal andconstraints. Strategic planning is by natur(tious and flexible, and should remain so. This

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strategic planning sessions must precede budgetingand managerial planning.

Business planners speak of the need to informline managers of strategic thinking and involve themin its formulation whenever possible. Analagously,state policymakers must seek to involve and informthose persons responsible for policy implementation,from state agency personnel to local officials. admin-istrators, teachers, and so on. Public hearings andmeetings with other key officials are important in theearly planning stages, once general themes have beenset but before any strategy has been crystallized. Atthe end of the planning process, publication of plansand their rationales will promote understanding ofpolicies which might otherwise appear poorly timedor misguided.

Evaluation of the strategic planning process iscritical, since the technique will be new. Expect someresistance and prepare for revision; strategic planningrequires unaccustomed kinds of thinking and behavior.

Continual evaluation and monitoring is also impor-tant within the process itself. Improbable or unfore-seen environmental changes must find a promptresponse, either in the switch to a contingency planor the development of new strategies. In other words.careful, ongoing evaluation of both strategic plansand the planning process is essential to success.

5 LEADERSHIP. Just as the strong commitment of1,-, the chief executive officer is essential to the suc-

cess of corporate planning, so strong leadership andadvocacy of strategic planning within your organiza-tion will be essential for success. If you have beenstimulated by the ideas and approaches we have pre-sented here, it is up to you to take the next steps: in-vestigate possible applications to your organization,elicit the interest and commitment of colleagues, andinitiate the process of devising a strategic planningmethod that makes sense for your particular setting.

We at the National Association of State Boards of Education hopethat this booklet has indeed sparked your interest in strengthening thebasis for education policy decisions. Please contact us for additionalassistance. We will gladly provide further direction to you in makingstrategic planning in education a reality.

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