do not use fonts other than arial for your presentations joint strategic needs assessment 2011-12...

Joint Strategic Needs Assessment

2011-12

South Lakeland Locality Stakeholder Panel

Monday 14th November

Content• Introduction to the JSNA• Background & context• Demand on health and social care system• Long-term conditions• Mental health & well-being• Living conditions & health inequalities• Lifestyle & behaviours• Summary

Welcome• Welcome to the JSNA locality stakeholder panel• Purpose – to begin the process of developing an

enhanced JSNA for Cumbria• This is the responsibility of the Health and Wellbeing

Board• Plan to have this in place by April 2012• Feeds in to the Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy

(June 2012)

What is a JSNA?

• Describes health and wellbeing in Cumbria• Describes strategic direction of services• Based on wide range of current information

and evidence• JSNA products, county and locality

narratives, online information

Who is involved?• Cumbria County Council• NHS Cumbria• Cumbria Intelligence Observatory• District Councils• Third Sector• LINKs• Probation, police and other partners

Why do we need a JSNA?• Current JSNA needs to be updated• Important role in the Health and Social Care Bill • HWWB role in Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategy

and JSNA• JSNA supports the Joint Health and Wellbeing

Strategy (JHWBS)• Commissioning Plans 2013 need to take account of

JHWBS

What are the challenges?

• Ageing Population

• Mental health and alcohol issues

• Health of children and young people

• Health inequalities

What do we want from you?

• Your ideas and feedback on the information presented

• Views on local needs and priorities• Information on local strengths and assets• Help to develop a local narrative for JSNA

Overall Deprivation Score

Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010

Health Deprivation Score

Source: Indices of Deprivation 2010

Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy Healthy Life Expectancy

Source: Office for National Statistics

Rurality England Cumbria South Lakeland

Urban > 10K - Less Sparse

Urban > 10K - Sparse

Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse

Tow n and Fringe - Sparse

Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse

Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010

Rurality Aged 65+ England Cumbria South Lakeland

Urban > 10K - Less Sparse

Urban > 10K - Sparse

Tow n and Fringe - Less Sparse

Tow n and Fringe - Sparse

Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Less Sparse

Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dw ellings - Sparse


Barriers to Services & Housing

Source: Indices of Deprivation, 2010

South Lakeland Population

Source: Office for National Statistics

“Known” Forecasted

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(00

0s)

0-14 15-64 65+

Median Household Income (£)

Source: CACI Paycheck, 2011

People and CommunitiesSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

There has been rapid population increaseThe proportion of the population of working age has fallen significantly

Levels of self employment are highHigh levels of self employment may reflect a lack of full-time employment opportunities

Educational attainment is high and the population of working age is well qualified

Despite a highly qualified population, workplace earnings are below average

For some, part-time employment offers opportunities for flexible work

High levels of part-time employment may reduce quality of employment and lead to double-jobbing

Conventional measures of area deprivation are low

Communities experience disadvantages in accessing services

Business and EnterpriseSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

Tourism and recreation are significant and growing economic activities

Eden and South Lakeland have many important industrial employers

Employment in the industrial sector has declined considerably since 2003

A high proportion of people work in small businesses and there is a high rate of new firm foundation

The rate of business closure is above average indicating high levels of churn

Infrastructure & EnvironmentSTRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

Eden and South Lakeland contain some of the UK’s finest natural environments

High residential desirability and tourism generates very high demand for housing

The demand for housing distorts local housing markets and reduces the affordability of housing for residents on average earnings

East Cumbria has good north-south road and rail links

Despite good road and rail links there is a considerable shortage of employment land ready for use

Community Safety

• South Lakeland has the 2nd lowest level of crime in Cumbria and is the seventh least deprived district in England in terms of crime

• Levels of crime are falling (6.1% since last year) • Yet drug crime, hate crime and domestic violence are on the rise,

as well as hospital admissions for alcohol attributable conditions • Typical offender in South Lakeland is likely to be aged 18-30

years and male• Crime and disorder is most prevalent in Kendal

Housing• The mean average house price in South

Lakeland is £238,205, over £70,000 more than the county average of £167,455

• The mean housing affordability ratio for the district is 7, above the county average of 5.2

• 24.6% of households in South Lakeland are fuel poor compared to 24.1% in Cumbria

Demand on the Health and Social Care System

Per 1000 the population

Health Demand Actual South Lakeland Cumbria South Lakeland

Calls to Cumbria Health on Call 15,141 141 250 Less calls than Cumbria

Admissions to hospital 11,007 102 115 Less admissions than Cumbria

Calls to the Ambulance Service 12,298 115 108 More calls than Cumbria

Demand on the health and Social Care System

Adults• 3848 adult social care service users accessing 12844

services• 2694 new referrals to adult social care services, with

1194 resulting in a full assessment

Children• 51 looked after children• 90 core assessments completed

Demand on the Health and Social Care SystemAdult Social Care

•81% (3109) of the adult service users are aged 65 and over• Over 1,100 safeguarding alerts come into adult social care every year

South Lakeland service users and services

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

no of service users Number of ServicesLearning Disabailities Mental healthPhysical Disabilities Other

Demand on the Health and Social Care SystemHousing need (Adults)

Source: Planning 4 Care

Take-up of long-term residential care places for the LA-supported population,assuming projected falls in take-up of residential care

0200400600800

1000120014001600

2009 2014 2019 2029

Serv

ice

Use

rs

Need for increase in alternative provision(other than long-term residential care)

Future take-up of LA-funded long-termresidential care places (based on servicetrends)

Total need for support currently met by LA-funded residential care

Demand on the Health and Social Care System – Learning Disabilities

1,762 1,790 1,807 1,834 1,862

1,306 1,319 1,322 1,325 1,335

2,029 2,098 2,156 2,208 2,276

1,316 1,348 1,374 1,398 1,420972 994 1,015 1,031 1,049

1,958 2,002 2,048 2,094 2,132

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nu

mb

erAllerdale Barrow -in-Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland

2010-30 People aged 18 and over predicted to have a learning disability (Source: PANSI and POPPI based on Emerson and Hatton)

Demand on the Health and Social Care System – Dementia

Figure 14: 2010-2030 The number of people aged over 65 years predicted to have dementia (Source: POPPI)

1,336 1,506 1,740 2,107 2,396923 989

1,1291,300

1,5171,3951,582

1,804

2,074

2,430

859989

1,140

1,388

1,628

739893

1,058

1,269

1,506

1,823

2,076

2,371

2,814

3,337

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nu

mb

er

Allerdale Barrow-in-Furness Carlisle Copeland Eden South Lakeland

Long-term Conditions, Chronic Illness and Disabilities

Years of life lost from Cancer

Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2007-2009

020406080

100120140160180

Allerdale Barrow Carlisle Copeland Eden SouthLakeland

Cumbria North West England

Years of life lost from Circulatory Disease



020406080

100120140



% of working age population with a disability


Source: Annual Population Survey, 2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%



% of children (0-16years) entitled to Disability Living Allowance



0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%



% happy or very happy with life

Mental Health and Well Being

Source: Quality of Life Survey, 2006

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



% satisfied with local area


Source: Place Survey Tracker 2009

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



Estimated neurotic disorder per 1000


Source: North East Public Health Observatory, 2008

050

100150200250



Admissions for deliberate self harm per 100,000


Source: North West Public Health Observatory, 2009-10

050

100150200250300350



Years of life lost from suicide



0

10

20

30

40


Rat

e


Infant mortality per 1000 births

Living Conditions and Health Inequalities

Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009

0123456


Rat

e


% born with low birth weight (<2.5kg)


Source: National Centre for Health Outcomes Development, 2009

0%2%4%6%8%

10%



Teenage pregnancy rate


Source: Office for National Statistics, 2007-2009

0

20

40

60

AllerdaleBarrow CarlisleCopeland Eden SouthLakeland

Rat

e p

er 1

000


% children living in poverty


Source: HMRC, 2009

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%



Claimant to vacancy ratio



02468

101214


Rat

e

Cumbria Great Britain England

% working age adults with level 4 or greater education



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



% working age adults with disabilities in employment

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%



Living conditions and Health Inequalities


Excess winter deaths

Living conditions and Health Inequalities


0

1020

30


%


% of people who agree they can influence decisions in their area


Source: Place Survey Tracker, 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%



Estimated smoking prevalence

Lifestyle and Behaviours


05

101520253035


%


Smoking during pregnancy per 100 maternities



05

101520



Hospital admissions due to alcohol


Source: Local Alcohol Profiles for England, 2009-2010

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000


Rat

e p

er 1

00,0

00


% reporting drunk and rowdy behaviour as a problem


Source: Place Survey, 2008

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%



Estimated prevalence of drug misuse (crack and opiates) per 1,000 people


02468

101214




% of people engaging in moderate intensity sport and recreation



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%



Healthy eating among adults



0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%



% of children participating in PE



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%



% of year six children obese


Source: National Child Measurement Programme, 2009-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%



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