do climatic shocks matter for food security in developing countries? kinda s romuald & badolo...
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Do Climatic shocks matter for Food Security in Developing Countries?
KINDA S Romuald & BADOLO Felix
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Outline
• Objective & Motivation
• Literature Review
Determinants of food security
Effects of Climate Change on Food Security
• Empirical analysis
• Conclusion
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ObjectiveThe paper aims: To analyze the effects of climatic shocks on food
security (Percentage of total undernourished population, Per capita food production Index)
• We use aggregated panel data over 1960-2008 for 77 developing countries
• We apply modern econometric methods : Fixed Effects
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Regain and importance of the climate change debate (Copenhagues (2009))
Authors apply microeconomic studies on Climate change and agriculture
Originality: macroeconomic study ( 77 developing countries), econometric method (Fixed effect)
Motivations
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Literature review (1) Determinants of food securityDefinition of food security (FAO (2001) Microeconomic Causes
-Low rate of agricultural production (FAO, 2004)
-Low access to food supply
-infrastructures and local markets
-environment health Macroeconomic Causes
-Economic performance (Pritchett & Summers,1996 Wiesmann, 2006)
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Literature review (2) -Population growth (Birdsall & Sinding (2001),
Merrick (2002))-Trade policy (Merrick (2002) -Political institutions (Sen (1999), Sen (2000);
Wiesmann (2006)) Effects of Climate Change on Food Security Effect on food availability (Schmidhuber and
Tubiello (2007), Porter and Semenov(2005), Wheeler et al.(2000), IPCC (2007c))
Effect on food stability (FAO (2008), IPCC ( 2001))
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Literature review (3)
Effect on food utilization (Taub and al. (2008), McMichael and al. (2006) Canfalonieri and al. (2007)
Effect on food accessibility (Du Toit and Ziervogel (2004), Thomsen and Metz (1998))
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Empirical analysis (1)Analyze effects of climatic shocks on food
security
Estimation method
With X : { income per capita, inflation, rainfall, population growth}, error term, time effect and country fix- effects.
variable of food security:
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Empirical analysis (2)
- Proportion of undernourished population
-Index of per capita food production
Heterogeneity: African countries
Estimation strategy : Fixed Effects (FE)
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Sources
-World Development Indicators (2011): proportion of undernourished people, index of per capita food production, income per capita, inflation, population, cultivated lands
-Guillaumont P and Simonet C (2011): rainfall volatility, rainfall, positive and negative rainfall shocks
Empirical analysis (3)
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Empirical analysis (4)Rainfall volatility increases food insecurity in DC: It has a positive effect on percent total
undernourished pop. It has a negative effect on Food production
Level of rainfall has no effect on food insecurity (food production, the percentage of total undernourished population)
Results are robust with control variables
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(economic development, Demographic expansion, inflation and cultivated lands )
• The effects of rainfall shocks on food security are different for African countries?
Empirical analysis (5)
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Empirical analysis (6)Results suggest that African countries are more
vulnerable to rainfall instability than other regions
The effect of rainfall inst on food insec (percent tot undernourished population, food prod) is higher in Sub Sahara countries than in other regions.
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Conclusion (1)
We analyze the effect of climatic shocks on Food security
Period:1960-2008 , 77 developing countries
Rainfall instability (negative rainfall shocks) increases food insecurity in DC
The effect is higher in Sub Sahara countries ( 30 countries) than DC
The level of rainfall has not effect
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Conclusion (2)
Policies recommendation: One of them is the diversification of African
economies that are less reliant on agriculture. These countries should adopt agricultural
techniques that optimize water use through increased and improved irrigation systems and crop development.
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