dm ps analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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Kamlesh Ghag 1
Managerial Decision making &
Problem Solving
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Kamlesh Ghag 2
This session includes.. Why Decision making is needed? Types of Decision making ? How to select a model ? 6 steps is Decision making process. Different models in Decision making
and in Decision Support System.
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Kamlesh Ghag 3
Decision Making.. Needed for any organization to reach
its objectives and goals.
Is the element of Problem solving.
Requires strategic planning and decision analysis.
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Kamlesh Ghag 4
Decision making the process of identifying problems and opportunities, then resolving them.
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Kamlesh Ghag 5
Decision - Types
Programmed AndNon – programmed
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Kamlesh Ghag 6
Programmed Made using a rule, procedure or
quantitative methode.g. fixed sitting arrangement
Are easy to computerized
MIS are used to solve Programmed Decision
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Kamlesh Ghag 7
Non-programmed Unstructured or ill-structured Deal with unusual/exceptional situation Difficult to quantify Rules, procedures are not so obvious Decision Support system are used to
solve the Non-programmed Decision.e.g. whether to start a new product line
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Kamlesh Ghag 8
Programmed decisions:# situations that occur often enough to enable decision rules to be developed.
Nonprogrammed decisions:# are made in response to situations that are
unique, are poorly defined and largely unstructured.
# many involve strategic planning.
Therefore…
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Kamlesh Ghag 9
Selecting aDecision Making ModelDepends on the manager’s personal
preference.
Whether the decision is programmed or non-programmed.
Extent to which the decision is characterized by risk, uncertainty, or ambiguity.
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Kamlesh Ghag 10
Six Steps in the Managerial Decision Making Process
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Kamlesh Ghag 11
Models of Decision Making
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Kamlesh Ghag 12
Hertbert Simon Model Intelligence Phase
- Information gathered that relates to the cause and scope of problem
- Potential problems or opportunities are identified and defined
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Kamlesh Ghag 13
Design Phase- Developing the alternative solution
- Evaluating the feasibility of the alternatives
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Kamlesh Ghag 14
Choice Phase- Requires selecting a course of action
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Kamlesh Ghag 15
Intelligence Design Choice
Hertbert Simon Model for Decision Making
Hertbert Simon Model
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Kamlesh Ghag 16
George Huber Model forProblem Solving Problem solving includes Decision
making and goes beyond that. Expansion of Decision Making model Includes
- Implementation and Monitoring Phase
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Kamlesh Ghag 17
Implementation Phase- when the solution is put into effect
Monitoring Phase- Evaluate the implementation
- involves feedback and adjustment
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Kamlesh Ghag 18
Intelligence Design Choice Implementation Monitoring
George Huber expanded model for Problem solving
George Huber Model
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Kamlesh Ghag 19
Decision Support System
An organized collection of people, procedures, software, databases and devices used to support problem-specific decision making.
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Kamlesh Ghag 20
DSS – 3 models Optimization Model
- offers the best solution- to help the organization meets its
goals- utilize problem constraint- reduce the time and cost to increase
the profits
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Kamlesh Ghag 21
Satisficing Model- When the decision would be difficult, complex, or costly.- good alternative modeling method( to analyze each alternative is too expensive)- looks only at those likely to give good results
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Kamlesh Ghag 22
Heuristic approach Defined guidelines or Procedures Also said as “rules of thumb”
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Kamlesh Ghag 23
Questions from your side..
Thank you.