distributed energy resourcesccap.org/assets/bill-tyndall-duke-energy.pdf · 2015-09-01 · 3...
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Distributed Energy Resources
William F Tyndall Duke Energy Commercial Strategic Initiatives
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Energy Challenges
United States • Aging power plants and distribution infrastructure • Climate change • Changing customer expectations Globally • 1 billion live without access to electricity • Energy reliability is challenge in many countries • Climate goals require substantial decarbonization of
electricity supply
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Working definition of distributed energy landscape
Demand management Energy efficiency
Decentralized generation
Dec
entr
aliz
ed
ener
gy r
esou
rces
En
ergy
Ext
ract
ors
Services and solutions to optimize total energy
consumption for the same level of services
Distributed storage
Storing energy/electricity, 'behind the meter' and on-
site – typically paired with DG
Lowering or shifting electric usage of
end-use customers at peak or times of
dispatch
Generating electricity 'behind the meter' and on-site where energy is
used
Ability to design, engineer, develop, install and manage all the energy needs of a customer (includes micro-grid)
Integration
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Distributed energy: ~$15B market in 2012, to grow to ~$35B by 2020
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102
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5
8
4
2
3
0
10
20
30
40
Revenue $B
Solar PV - Commercial
Solar PV - Residential
Energy Efficiency
Demand Management Distributed Storage Integration
2020(E)
35
1
2012
14 0 1
+144%
Decentralized Energy Market1 (Base case), 2012 – 2020(E) Key assumptions
• Continued smart grid expansion and penetration of advanced metering
• Net metering in place in key PV markets through 2020
• Growth in dynamic pricing models
• No explicit changes in regional DR expansions
• ITC at 30% through 2016, 10% to 2020
• Energy prices broadly aligned with Duke forecast
• Moderate econ growth
Potential upside of $10-15B above base
case
1. Considering only a subset of decentralized energy markets Sources: EV Power. LBNL, NERC. EIA AEO. Navigant, BCG Analysis
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Distributed energy: 35% capacity growth over last 3 years
2009-2012 US cumulative capacity growth
0
50
100
150 141
21%
38%
28%
3%
Total EE DR
GW
Decentralized Generation
11%
Traditional Generation
(gross adds)
Utility Scale Renewables
35% of capacity growth
Declining Solar Prices Still Beating Analyst Expectations
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
UT
TX
WV
CA
AZ
AR
AL
AK
OH
NY
NV
TN
SD
SC RI
PA
OR
OK NM
NJ
NH
NE
ND
NC
MT MS
MO
MN
MI ME
MD
Average electricity price for commercial in 2012 in $/kWh
LA
KY
KS IN
IL ID
IA
FL
MA
DC
CO
Solar irradiation on optimally inclined plane in kWh/m2/year
WY
WI
WA
VT
VA
DE
In many states, commercial PV expected to reach retail parity by 2017
Generation capacity in GW (2010) Commercial grid parity by 2017 at current electricity prices
Iso-LCOE curves at a PV system price1 of
2.80 $/Wp (2012 w/ 30% ITC)
1.8 $/Wp (2017)
1.62 $/Wp (2017 w/ 10% ITC)
4.0 $/Wp (2012)
1. For roof-mounted system 100 kWp; year end prices; does not account for accelerated depreciation benefit Note: Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 7%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; assumed electric prices grow at inflation Source: Solar Electricity Handbook (online); IEA Electricity Information 2011; LBNL; NREL database; BCG analysis
HI
Note: actual electricity price by customer has large range based on
consumption level, TOU, etc.
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600
Slovakia Hungary
Czech Poland
Bulgaria
Romania Turkey South Africa
Average electricity price for households in 2012 in $/kWh (excluding VAT)
Hawaii
India
California
Spain
Texas
Australia
Greece
Japan
China
Italy
France New York
South Korea
Germany
Netherlands
UK
Finland
Sweden
Norway
Belgium
Solar irradiation on optimally inclined plane in kWh/m2/year
Global PV market growing as more countries reach retail parity
1. For a 10kW roof-mounted system; mature PV market; price excl. VAT Assumptions: Performance ratio of PV system 85%; lifetime 20 years; discount rate 8%; annual OPEX as percentage of initial CAPEX 1%; exchange rate €1.00 = $1.30 Source: Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, NREL; PVGIS; BCG analysis
Size of electricity market in TWh (2012)
Residential grid parity by 2013 at current electricity prices
Iso-LCOE curves at a PV system
price1 of
2.9 $/Wp
1.9 $/Wp 1.6 $/Wp
Note: actual economics depends on price for PV generated energy
(e.g. FiT, net metering)
Storage for Commercial Customers
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• Demand management software combined with storage hardware • Automated demand reduction • Solar smoothing • Grid support
Advanced Energy Management Landscape
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Lighting
HVAC
Enterprise Software & Services
HVAC Controls
Lighting Controls
Utility Bill Management
Enterprise Energy Information
Supply Advisory
Virtual Audits
Building Controls Hardware
Demand Response Aggregator On-site DER
Chorriaca Hybrid Wind-Diesel System
• 100 kW of new wind generation • Hybrid system with existing 120kW
diesel generation • One to three turbines, depending
on economics of final contractor proposals
• Annual fuel savings: 58,386 liters
Mini hydro at Coyuco-Cochico
Diversion weir Settling basin
Penstock
Power house
Road
Bridge
Transmission line
Diversion weir Gabion weir, height=2m
Intake Side intake type with a sluice gate
Settling basin and head tank
Open type, length=9.8m, width=5m, with spillway for excess water
Penstock and spillway
Reinforced PVC pipe k6, diameter= 500mm, length=160 m. Underground
Power house 30m2 pre-assembled concrete. Located 1620 masl, 2 m above average water level.
Turbine and Generator
Cross-flow turbine (Mitchell-Banki). Impeller diameter 400 mm. Synchronous generator 400 VCA brushless with AVR
Transmission line 13.2 kVA Lenght=3.7 km and 2 transformers 04/13.2 kV – 200 kVA
Intake Height (m) 24.1
Flow (l/s) 600
Penstock net diam.(mm)
470
Hydraulic loss (m) 2.44
Net Height (m) 21.6
Generator efficiency
90%
Turbine efficiency 75%
Power output (kW) 86
Annual generation (MWh)
753
Annual fuel saved (lts)
23,796
Transmission line Mini-hydro
Distributed Energy Benefits – United States
• Lower carbon emissions • Solar and energy efficiency = zero CO2 emissions • One study: Major California city could decrease carbon emissions by
70% by growing DER by 2% per year
• System benefits • Reduced transmission losses • Grid Support • Greater resiliency
• Reduced Consumer Costs
• Customer Choice
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