disaster risk assessment in planning (concept paper)
TRANSCRIPT
Disaster Risk Assessments (DRA) in Sub-National Planning and Decision-
making Processes
By: Renan T.Tanhueco (PST Member, NEDA)
This paper accompanying the module provides a brief explanation of the concept and
methodology for integrating DRA results in Sub-National Planning and Decision-making
Processes. It attempts to provide merits of the Provincial DRA in terms of supporting decisions
at the local level. Can the current DRA approach proposed at the Sub-national planning be used
for local level planning? And if so, what are the useful features and possible modifications?
Another question being addressed is how climate change implications be integrated into the
current DRA with their results used to plan cities and municipalities in the Philippines?”
1. Imperatives for Action
The past few years have reminded us that disasters affect anyplace and anyone. The recent
tragedies such as those as in Indonesia (2006) and Haiti (2010) earthquakes, the Philippine
flooding (2009) brought up by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng have left thousands of people dead,
left millions homeless and have added to other losses in terms of livelihoods and resources lost.
It is widely believed that disasters can be avoided through disaster risk reduction initiatives.
Governments around the world have committed action to reduce disaster risks. Priorities for
action had been identified by member states of the United Nations through the Hyogo
Framework for Action (HFA 2005, ISDR), to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015. The HFA
offers five priority areas of action, namely:
1. Make disaster risk reduction (DRR) as a priority by ensuring that it is a national and local
priority through a strong institution capable of implementation
2. Know the risks and take action by identifying, assessing and monitoring risks leading to
an effective warning system
3. Build understanding and awareness through knowledge, innovation and education to
build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors by ensuring that exposure to hazards, vulnerabilities
of people and their places and resources are protected and safe, thus resulting to
resilient communities.
5. Be prepared and ready to act by strengthening the disaster preparedness for effective
response at all levels.
The HFA (Point No.2) of 2005 emphasizes that decisions need to be informed of the risks for
action to take place by identifying, assessing and monitoring risks. By building an understanding
and awareness through knowledge, innovation and education, it aids in forming a culture of
safety and resilience, which may reduce risk factors, such as exposure to hazards, vulnerabilities
of people, their places and resources. This eventually will result to resilient communities.
Besides maintaining a current information base to understand potential hazards, resilient
communities should be well informed in the preparation and implementation of its future
growth and improvement plans (i.e. development plans), and be able to allocate financial
resources from national and local capital markets for climate change mitigation and adaptation
initiatives and for response and reconstruction in times of natural disasters.
As already known, a hazard and risk assessment methodology is available for the sub-
national planning process (NEDA, 2009); however, the methodology was only applied for sub-
national level and does not include emerging concerns such as the climate change impacts to
development.
To deal with climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction issues, the current
initiatives should address the consequence of climate change and the increased frequency and
intensity of extreme events and disaster related to this change.
2.0 The Rationale
The sub-national DRA guidelines reveal initially, that the risk values are coarse estimates, in
view of the quality and level of data (i.e. aggregated areas defined by floor areas and provincial
level crop land areas, use of national level data (NSO data),and that the vulnerabilities (i.e.
fatality rates, and cost of damages rates)were obtained from national figures. Such information
provided are useful for planning for exposure reduction and initiating mitigation at the regional
and provincial level; however, but may lack resolution to inform actions needed at the local level.
Hence, there is a need to define further, the vulnerability and risk estimation requirements at
the local level, so that specific vulnerability reduction and mitigation may be pursued with
confidence and to explore further, how sub-national assessments can guide local decision
making towards risk reduction.
The emerging issues of climate change implications also warrant an approach to mainstream
them in local level planning. While local climate change variability and “downscaled” climate
change information may not be available yet (SNC, 2010), there is a need to incorporate the
information in the decision making process in local development and land use planning process.
This paper only attempts to provide approaches to improve data and estimation for DRA at the
local level, following the sub-national risk estimation procedures and to provide insights on
mainstreaming useful for local and sub-national levels.
3.0 The Objective
The objectives of this paper are to present views on mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction
(DRR) results in Sub-National and Local Development Planning and Decision-making Processes.
Specifically:
• To present, in brief, the NEDA DRR Mainstreaming with focus on integrating disaster
risk assessment (DRA) in Sub-national development and physical framework planning
processes.
• To provide views on integrating Sub-national disaster risk assessment and their
implications in development and land use plans (at local levels)
4.0 Assessment in Mitigation Planning
An assessment is a process for analyzing the condition of the susceptibility of the site, a
building, people and operations that may be affected or exposed to a natural hazard. It provides
for a statement needed by stakeholders to do action, such as: to prepare, to allocate resources,
organization, provide mitigation.
4.1 Risk Reduction in Development and Land Use Plans
The primary purpose of risk reduction in Sub-national, municipal or city planning is to
identify policies, actions, and tools for implementation over the long term that will result in a
reduction in risk and potential for future losses community-wide.
This is accomplished by using a systematic process of learning about the hazards that can
affect a community or city or municipality, setting clear goals, identifying appropriate actions,
following through with an effective mitigation strategy, and keeping the plan current. Effective
planning forges partnerships that will bring together the skills, expertise, and experience of a
broad range of groups to achieve a common vision for the city or municipality, and can also
ensure that the most appropriate and equitable mitigation projects will be undertaken. Risk
reduction planning is most successful when it increases public and political support for
mitigation programs and preparedness, results in actions that also support other important city
or municipal goals and objectives, and influences the decision making to include hazard
reduction considerations and improving resilience. Integrating in a city or municipal land use
plan is effective in reducing disaster risks as this allows the risks and their management become
part of the development concern. With a systematic procedure of assessing them, the strategies,
programs, projects and activities are rationally determined. They are seen as municipal and city
investments that support development and rational planning of land uses.
4.2 Levels of Assessment
For purposes of planning and zoning regions against hazards, the information provided by
hazard inventories and physical susceptibilities may be useful for giving information, gaining
consensus on actions needed, or giving advisories; however, this may have limitations about the
hazard character so as to identify appropriate more specific mitigation measures for and to
prioritize these measures considering available resources, existing institutional arrangements
and capabilities to undertake risk reduction measures. Without substantial hazard information,
it is difficult to initiate laws and ordinances towards hazard reduction. For regional and
provincial planning, the character of the hazard must be fully explained and understood. In
terms of zoning a wider area, the results may simply be preliminary if hazard details are
qualitatively described.
For local level planning, detailed information about hazard character, as obtained from
more quantitative approaches may be sufficient to support laws and ordinances towards hazard
reduction and local zoning. Delineations (or geographic extents), the nature of the hazard, its
magnitude, onset, and other physical attributes as obtained from more intermediate or
advanced procedures helps to provide a better assessment, which can further aid in describing
and ensuring better zoning criteria and delineations on the ground. With the inclusion of
vulnerabilities and risk information, the elements at risk are identified, asset and life losses are
quantified and so the type and degree of structural (building retrofits)and non-structural
interventions, programs to reduce vulnerabilities and ensuring that zoning take away the
population and important assets ( as practically possible) from high risk area are removed.
As the type of intervention to be pursued to reduce risk becomes more specific for the
element of concern (a parcel of land, building site, building), information on the hazard and
susceptibilities of the element at risk similarly requires more detailed information. For example,
building performance against an earthquake event will require further investigation on the
response of the structure from different excitations of the ground. This may require
geotechnical investigations of the building site and simulations to provide for the appropriate
structural retrofit. Zoning the area for the possible types and heights of buildings allowed will
make use of this geotechnical information. Laws and ordinances may be based on the results of
these more detailed (or advanced) information.
Table 1.Types and Levels of Zoning
Note: X = applicable
(X) = may be applicable
Source: Paul T. Finlay, (2010),GUIDELINES FOR ASSESSING PLANNING POLICY AND CONSENT
REQUIREMENTS FOR LANDSLIDE PRONE LAND INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGICAL AND NUCLEAR SCIENCES
(NEW ZEALAND). Presentation , De La Salle University
4.3 A Brief Review of the DRA Concepts used at the Provincial Level
In this section, a brief review of the disaster risk assessment concepts at the Provincial level
is presented. The DRA follows a four step process, namely: (a) hazard characterization and
frequency analysis, (b) consequence analysis, (c) risk estimation and (d) risk evaluation.
Hazard Characterization involves identifying and characterizing the hazard(s) that threaten
an area. As a process, it involves the LGU to do the following: 1.)Prepare an inventory of all
hazards that threaten the Province/Region, which includes collecting hazard information
and maps relevant to risk assessment from mandated agencies and preparing hazard
inventory matrix; 2) Determining the return period for each hazard event which includes
estimating return period for earthquake related hazards; estimating return period for
volcanic hazards; estimating return period for hydro-meteorological hazard events and
preparing a frequency table. The output is an inventory of hazards that affect the planning
area.
Consequences Analysis involves determining the consequences of these potential hazard(s)
to exposed population and land uses .Two measures are used to determine the
consequence: fatality and cost of property damage in a hypothetical event. Their
expressions include the following:
For estimating fatality:
Where refers to the consequence in terms of fatality per hypothetical event of the
hazard;
Is the potentially affected population and is the factor for fatality (or a person
fatality rate). The potentially affected population is obtained using the product of the
population density and the common geographical areas between the hazard and the land
area.
For estimating damage:
Where refers to the consequence in terms of damage cost per hypothetical event of
the hazard;
Is the value of potentially affected area and is the factor for property damage
(or a damage rate). The potentially affected area is obtained using the product of the
replacement value and the common geographical areas between the hazard and the land
area. The consequence analysis provides a measure also for computing risks expected from
various hazard events. This however, requires the probabilities of occurrence of various
events.
Figure 1. Framework for Mainstreaming DRR in Sub-National Plan
F AP FC P F= ×
FC
APP FF
Pr Pr PrD A DC P F= ×
Pr DC
PrAPPr DF
Risk Estimation involves estimating the risk (annual basis), expressed as the expected
annual
number of lives lost, damage to property
For estimating fatality risk:
Where refers to the risk of fatality for hypothetical events of the hazard;
is the probability of occurrence ( 0-1) assigned for the event of concern and is the value
obtained in the consequence analysis.
For estimating property damage risk:
Where refers to the risk of property damage for hypothetical events of the hazard;
is the probability of occurrence ( 0-1) assigned for the event of concern and is the
value obtained in the consequence analysis.
Risk Evaluation involves prioritizing areas (i.e. municipalities and cities or their clusters) for
further assessment and assessing vulnerabilities of the elements at risk in the area.
Assigning a “priority score” for each municipality requires the computed risks for fatality and
property damage costs computed at the barangay levels, be aggregated to meet criteria to
qualify under a certain category of the levels of risks. These are performed for each hazard
of interest affecting the Province. Identifying the high risk areas (among municipalities) is
followed by a vulnerability assessment which can be carried out with the local level.
Elements considered are the population, social infrastructures, service infra- structures,
transport and access, economy, and environment.
4.4 Importance of Risk Evaluation to Local Planning
The importance of Sub-National risk evaluation to local level vulnerability assessment is to
understand the dynamics of the social and economic activities of the area, how these activities
affect the resources and use of the land, how it results to the income and services developed
and how the hazards can result to induce stresses among these elements and their interactions.
This is where Provincial level planners, could direct their concerns about more specific concerns
hazard implications on municipal, inter-municipal and inter-provincial interactions. Given the
wider geographic area, the assessment of vulnerabilities and risks at the provincial level appears
as uniform, because of the resolution of data used to represent them, for example-population
density, crop areas, and buildable areas (residential and non-residential) areas do not provide
further information about their true condition, exact location and distribution. For local DRA,
adjustments on the data requirements for hazard assessment and the elements considered for
vulnerability assessment need to be pursued. This section describes these suggestions on risk
evaluation for both the Provincial and Local planners.
F FR P C= ×
FR P
FC
P
Pr PrD DR P C= ×
Pr DR
Pr DC
Hazard
Another reason for continuing local level assessment is to improve on the hazard
information. The hazard maps used for the Provincial level were mainly susceptibility maps
which may not meet the requirements of a local level risk assessment especially on
information on coverage, character, and duration. For example, in floods, other than depths,
timing of floods such as time of rise, time to subside, duration of flooding, velocity and
debris carried are useful to understand the onset, nature of damage, and how it develops
into risks and so specific mitigation measures can be applied. Similarly, for earthquakes, ,
site characteristics ( soil, geology, disturbed sites) and secondary hazards ( dam breaks,
spilling of hazardous materials) which may be triggered may need to be identified and
assessed to provide a clear picture on the nature of the hazard, vulnerabilities posed by the
site on the elements placed above them.
Alternatives to create better hazard information is to use geomorphologic data ( flood,
earthquake); that is to study the origins, development of the land formations , which helps
determine potential of hazard to occur. Another method is to use historical information
about the hazard events recurring and the resulting damage and losses. This however, relies
on being able to document the events and the quality and detail of assessment of the event.
A third approach is to use modeling of the hazard event provides another alternative for
deriving event scenarios. It must be realized though that substantial research must be
poured to demand assessment of various site specific hazards impacts. A combination of
these approaches is likely to provide better information.
The various approaches require a local investigation to make the risk information locally
placed and as possibly required, site specific.
Whether the addition of detail of hazard information can be aggregated to improve on the
Provincial level hazard information remains to be seen. This is so because, for example, the
availability and detail of hazard information may not be the same for all municipalities, such
as about periods covered (events of concern) may be different, the damage assessment and
reporting may not be uniform, and the description may largely be qualitative and hence
making it difficult to organize or create useful information for event assessments. Table 1
provides information for improving on current hazard map information.
Table 1. Suggested additional information for local hazard assessment
Hazard
Information
Information sources Descriptions and Measures
Land slide Local reports by Municipal DCC
New and existing inventories with
mandated agencies, research team
Soil and geotechnical surveys
Studies and models on rainfall intensity,
earthquake shaking correlation with
landslide occurrence
Type of landslides
Number of recorded occurrences along
identified susceptible areas in the municipality
or locality
Frequency of observed occurrences per area, or
per length of road
Local maps of danger zones
Floods and
coastal surges
Geomorphology of basin, past flood
studies, flood control system in place
Local reports on flood monitoring, event
damage reports
Warning systems in place (stage records,
flood records, dam operation records,
flood control operation
records),Rainfall ,records during storm and
flood events, wind information
Site inspection and field investigations to
identify danger spots or zones
Geological Studies and Surveys
Community based monitoring in place
Source of floods, nature of floods, impacts of
floods to locality,
Topography, contours of the place, ground
water table, tidal information,
Flood depth, debris carried, time of rise , time
for water to subside, velocity of flow, areal
extent of flood,
Frequency of flooding (inland or coastal)
Local maps of danger zones
Earthquake
related
(groundshaking,
liquefaction
prone areas,
tsunami)
Existing geomorphology of and geology
studies
Geotechnical studies in the area as a
requirement by building officials
PHIVOLCS recording of shaking events/
liquefaction,
REDAS information base
Site inspection and field investigations
Future geological studies and surveys
Site inspection and field investigations to
identify danger spots or zones
Community based monitoring in place
Warning systems in place
History of seismicity
Number of recorded occurrences along
identified susceptible areas in the municipality
or locality
Frequency of observed occurrences(or
intensities) per area, or per source,
Local maps of danger zones
Volcanic Activity Geologic and geomorphologic studies in
the area
PHIVOLCS recording of volcanic activity in
the area
Site inspection and field investigations
Future geological studies and surveys
Site inspection and field investigations to
identify danger spots or zones
Number of recorded occurrences along
identified susceptible areas in the municipality
or locality
Frequency of observed occurrences(or
intensities) per area, or per source,
Local maps of danger zones
Community based monitoring in place
Warning systems in place
Drought Geomorphology of basin, past drought
studies, water availability records
Local reports on drought, damage and loss
reports
Number of recorded occurrences along
identified susceptible areas in the municipality
or locality
Frequency of observed occurrences(or
intensities) per area
Maps of affected areas
Note: Relevant agencies must be consulted in identifying and validating information and in preparing maps.
Box 1.
When hazard information is lacking to provide resolution on the nature of the risks, one may resort to
past studies or provide models for developing scenarios. For example, for floods, greater clarity on the
flood hazard is provided with the following details: flood depths, frequency of each flood event, duration,
time of rise, time to subside, entry points and pathways of flooding, among others. Combining
information from the city or municipality disaster reports and field investigations may reveal a correlation
of the intensity of the flood with the corresponding damage and loss. This should be described and
assessed to understand impacts arising from different degrees of flooding, as resources would allow, The
output of this process should at least (a) identify highly affected areas; (b) identify the factors creating the
flood challenge; (c) provide an explanation of its causes; and (d) identify its implications to the areas or
sectors affected and to the local government; and (e) determine the needed policies for hazard mitigation
(e.g., flood walls, rerouting of flows, temporary detention of water, tree planting, among others) (f) assess
capacities and available finances for pursuing mitigation or adaptation. Similar requirements are also
suggested in profiling other hazards of the municipality/city.
Population
The use of the population density matters because for the area exposed, the intensity of
population in that area reflects the potential number of people affected; however, it does
assume within its construct, that the population is uniform over the unit area described.
This may not be true, as reality, describes that population are usually concentrated on
settlements (or built up areas) and their locations and distributions do not reflect uniform
arrangement. A detailed assessment can look into the following suggestions:
• A map of the location and distribution of the affected settlements.
• A selection of potentially vulnerable segments of the society such as schools in high
risk areas, indigenous persons, special population groups in high risk areas (elderly,
physically challenged, children, indigenous peoples) and low income segment.
• Population of school children (elementary, high school), number of exposed
population and percentage of exposed population below poverty line can be used
for the assessment.
• The use of Community Based Monitoring Systems (CBMS) data can be useful to
prioritize communities for disaster management.
• Migration, Population growth and Location can help in interpreting urbanization of
the Municipality and determine growth over high risk areas
Building and infrastructure
For some types of hazards, building damage is the first sequence of the chain of events
before casualties can result. These are most evident in hazards involving earthquakes,
flooding, tsunami and wind related disasters. Building resilience against the pressures and
forces posed on them by the hazard event (or magnitude), determines the type and degree
of damage expected. These necessarily require an understanding on the way these buildings
and their components (structural and non-structural) behave and perform against different
hazard events. Casualties result depending on the building damage, the use and occupancy,
time o day, among others. The addition of information at the barangay or local level
planning shall preferably include the following:
Building typologies (types) of different functions and their performance against several
hazards of concern and past disaster information focusing on the following:
• Performance and damage information of different material constructions
• Nature of damage, amount of damage and their counts recorded
• Contents in the structure
• Valuation of the structures
• Compliance to building codes ( old and new)
• Condition of the structures
• Importance of structures and functions
A focus on possible areas where mass casualties can result should limit the coverage of the
study, such as schools and hospitals, building units for residential and non-residential
purposes (such as government institutions, commercial buildings). Buildings of historical or
cultural significance should also be included in the study, so as to identify the necessary
adjustments (ex. special retrofits) that may be needed to maintain their life.
Service Infrastructures such as waterlines and wastewater, drainage facilities, treatment
plants, communication lines and towers deserve individual assessments and the results
should measure the damage and the disruptions that result. Similarly, the information on
these structures should involve:
• Performance and damage information of different utilities
• Nature of damage, amount of damage and their counts recorded
• Valuation of the structures
• Compliance to building codes ( old and new)
• Condition of the structures
• Importance of structures
Transport and Access
Transport and Access is important as the roads and bridges, for example, allows the
movement of the people, goods and services into and outside an area, and provides
circulation within the area.. The resilience of the roads, bridges linking ports and harbors, air
ports into the study area to the different hazard magnitudes affects the continuity of
functions of the area and those depending on the area’s economy.
Important buildings, networks or linkages (existing and proposed) of national, provincial and
local importance should be reflected over hazard maps. The information should include:
• Count, proportion, capacity and condition of roads, bridges in high risk areas
• Classified road networks (national, municipal, barangay road etc.)
• Bridges by Type and their conditions
• Number, condition and importance of Port and Harbors
• Number, condition and importance of Airports
• Damage information on these buildings and structures
• Transport demand and supply, and trip distributions
Economy
The economy can be physically described by the location of buildings and structures in the
City or municipality. The location of employments centers, industries providing export
products, emerging economies and the interrelationships of these industries (linkages of
inputs and outputs), service areas ( ex. commercial), agricultural areas, mining areas, among
others describe a fabric which can be manifested by their form, arrangements and design,
and the linkages formed by the land, air and water transport and access systems .
Information shall also include registration of business establishments revealing their
numbers, locations, distributions, amount of investments, area and numbers of farmers in
high risk municipalities (palay, corn, coconut etc.), area and numbers of livestock and
poultry in high risk municipalities. Historical damage and loss may reveal the impact of
hazard events on this sector.
Environment
The information on the destruction and loss of coastal and forest resources, flora and fauna
due to (potential) actual exposure to natural hazards should be prepared. This should cover
site conditions of exposure (e.g. number, being in a catchment area, poor drainage, distance
from a hazard source or path -i.e. fault line, 4 km eruption zone) which create the unsafe
conditions of these areas. Sea level rise of certain value will have and more inland areas
submerged. Negative hazard impacts on Land use may result to similar negative impacts to
settlements and economy, such as reduced areas for agriculture, reduced forest areas,
among others.
5.0 Integrating the Regional and Provincial DRA results
Planning of the City or Municipality looks inwards and outwards. Looking inwards means the
planning considers the city or municipality within the context of the bigger geography; and
planning outwards looks into the role and implications of the city or municipality plans to the
wider area such as the Province or Region. In relation to risk reduction and planning, the
following general steps are suggested.
a) Prioritized areas are marked for further investigation
Since the provincial DRA is premised on susceptibility and potential hazards defined in
Agency maps, field investigations should add more information on said maps to reveal
site specific, high risk areas. The local DRA shall focus on these areas. Together, they
form part of the inventory of information and can be used to physically screen planning
areas. High risk areas are listed. Figure 2 shows a Surigao del Norte risk map revealing
prioritized areas (e.g. fatalities and damages) for further investigation.
Figure 2. Priority Map showing the areas based from risk estimates.
b) Review and validate the elements at risk and their vulnerabilities in high risk areas.
The Provincial DRA also reveals the vulnerabilities of the place. These are earlier
prepared in matrices to help explain the risk estimates prior to planning the Province.
The assumptions and decisions can be reviewed and validated with the local DRA
exercise. At this point, the matrices can be reviewed for localizing its values specific to
the municipality/city or its sub-areas.
c) Risks as a development problem
How does the Province view the risks? What are the implications to the municipality or
city if left unattended? Local people or local authorities (city or municipality) may have
differing views or perspectives of what constitutes the risks in their places. Experiences
in the city or municipality, as well as, results from the local DRA can confirm these initial
views of the risk at the Provincial level. Vulnerability assumptions and risk assumptions
become clearer at the local level. Key analysis points should be listed and form part of
the local level assessments. They can be initially grouped under the following categories
against the sectors affected.
• Life threatening or are direct threats to public safety;
• Threat to the sustainability of key production resources or employment
activities;
• Threat to the delivery of basic services; and
• Harmful or destructive to protected areas, flora, fauna, and other protected
natural resources.
d) Goals derived from issues & problems are reviewed and aligned with the vision of the
Province or Region.
The vision of the City or municipality should reflect the role it will play in the region or
province. A revisiting of the vision statement, as well as, the goals set for the
municipality or city can check if a re- alignment of goals with the Province or Region is
needed. This can form part of the setting goals and objectives portion of the local
planning process
e) An objective/target shall focus on increasing resilience or in mitigating risks of a sector.
In each development sector, matrices showing the goals, objectives, strategies and
programs, projects set by the Province should be reviewed by the Municipality. In
relation to development and land use objectives and strategies, the risk reduction
measures deal with increasing the resilience of the communities (social, economic,
environmental related) and in mitigating the hazard (infrastructure and land use) which
hamper growth & development. Risk reduction strategies such as: Avoid or eliminate
– remove a risk trigger or deny a risk- creating activity; Mitigate –reduce the frequency
or the severity by changing physical characteristics or operations; Share or transfer –
shift the risk-bearing responsibility to another party; Retain – fund potential losses with
own resources
Increasing resilience means reducing vulnerability to life, resources, economy, incomes,
access to services. The local government planners should identify, list and confirm these
connections between the analysis risk results and the risk reduction measures proposed.
These are the points of validation after the local risk assessment is prepared.
Land use plans (Provincial level) and transport and access linkages should be cross
checked with the existing and proposed land uses. The important implications to local
plans must be reviewed (ex. physical/infrastructure plan and land use) at the evaluation
stages of the planning (i.e. after the DRA has been completed).
f) Plans for implementing disaster risk reduction strategies should be reviewed
Implementation and schedules provide important information on how the future local
plans can take off. For example, the proposal of a flood control structure (e.g. dam and
levees proposed at the regional or provincial level) or an on-going project study can
affect future drainage systems and easements at the local areas. It can be expected to
meet resistance because of proposed routes or realignments cutting across settlement
areas, without proper procedures for selection and remuneration.
g) Local DRR plans provide inputs to higher levels plans
After the local DRA and planning has been completed, the Province, HLURB and relevant
agencies review the local plan along with the Provincial plans (or agency plans) and
update the latter. With consultations among relevant stakeholders, the local plans get
approved and adopted
6. An On-Going Process
The DRA methodology by NEDA (2009) used in sub-national planning, provide a process to
inform decision makers on hazard exposure, valuation, aggregation of elements, costs of
damage of structures, crops and fatality rates. The methodology for risk quantification still
undergoes adjustments as more specific, reliable data and information becomes more available:
- exposure element and their attributes may need to be more specific(e.g. buildings
or smaller clusters instead of aggregated built up areas)
- clearer attributes, delineations and coverage of hazard prone areas
- new valuation for other elements
- recurrence interval of hazard events known
The scientific community and academic institutions can be tapped to provide the needed
estimates for current mainstreaming purposes. Less rigorous methods of qualifying risks (e.g.
use of indices) are also available in literature.
To evaluate the consequences of these risks to the different development sectors,
stakeholders have to validate the estimates. This may be done through the conduct of expert’s
group meetings and local consultations through focused group discussion(s). Here, key
stakeholders who have good knowledge or have experienced natural calamities, disasters, or
other environmental degradation that affected or is affecting the community should be tapped
to assess and evaluate the risks.
References:
Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board(2006), CLUP Guidebook. A Guide to Comprehensive
Land Use Plan Preparation, Vol.1.
Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board(2007), CLUP Guidebook. A Guide to Sectoral Studies in
the CLUP Preparation, 2007, Vol.2.
Jose, S.G,2010, Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation (DRR/CCA) in
Local Development Planning and Decision –making Process, NEDA-UNDP-AusAID Project,1st
Expert’s Group Meeting, Jan, 12, 2010 presentation, Summit Ridge Hotel, Tagaytay City
NEDA-ADB,2007 Guidelines on Provincial/local Planning and Expenditure Management,
Provincial Development and Physical Framework Planning Volume 2, NEDA-ADB, 2007
NEDA-UNDP,DIPECHO, 2009, Guidelines on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in
Subnational Planning and Physical Development
SNC Project Management Team, 2010, Enabling Activities for the Preparation of the Second
National Communication(SNC) on Climate Change to the UN /FCCC: An Overview; NEDA-UNDP-
AusAID Project, 1st Expert’s Group Meeting, Jan13, 2010 presentation, Summit Ridge Hotel,
Tagaytay City
State and Local Mitigation Planning; How to Guides,: Understanding Your Risks: Identifying
Hazard and Estimating Losses(FEMA 386-2),(August 2001) by Federal Emergency Management
Agency
The Allen Consulting Group, Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Dept. of the Environment
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