disaster preparedness a key element of becoming disaster resilient

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

EVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDSEVERY REGION HAS CITIES AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS

200 NATIONS AND 7

BILLION PEOPLE

200 NATIONS AND 7

BILLION PEOPLE

NORTH AMERICA

NORTH AMERICA

CARIBBEAN BASIN

CARIBBEAN BASIN

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

MEDITER-RANEAN

MEDITER-RANEAN

ISLAND NATIONS ISLAND NATIONS

ASIA ASIA

SOUTHAMERICASOUTH

AMERICA

EUROPEEUROPE

CITYCITYCITYCITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•NATURAL HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY IENCE

FOUR PILLARS OF FOUR PILLARS OF RESILIENCERESILIENCE

DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN---

A CITY’S (COMMUNITY’S) PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT …

UN—PREPAREDFOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED

TO A STATE OF

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL

NATURAL HAZARDS

GLOBAL GOAL:FROM UN—PREPARED

TO A STATE OF

PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND ALL

NATURAL HAZARDS

A FOCUS ONHAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

PURPOSE: Information from these

assessments will facilitate the adoption and

implementation of policies that will enable the city to be

prepared when it happens.

HAZARD AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

• HAZARD-- What are the potential disaster agents of the flood, earthquake, severe windstorm, etc. and how often does each one occur?

• VULNERABILITY – Does the city’s built environment have weaknesses with respect to any of the potential disaster agents? What are they?

RISK AND LOSS ASSESSMENTS

• RISK—What is the chance of loss when the potential disaster agents of a natural hazard interact with vulnerable elements of the built environment of a city?

• LOSS OF FUNCTION– The degree and distribution of the losses of function?

• SOCIOECONOMIC LOSS-- How many homeless? Jobless, Injured? Dead? And what is the economic loss?

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

FLOODS IN S. CA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES?

• WHEN?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• BUILT ENVIRONMENT

ELEMENTS IN FLOODPLAIN?

• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR LEVEES?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

FLOODS IN CHINA: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHICH RIVER (S) WILL OVERFLOW ITS BANKS, DIKES, OR DAMS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN

FLOODSFLOODS

INUNDATION

INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS

STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER

WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS)

EROSION AND MUDFLOWS

CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND

DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND

DISASTER

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

HURRICANE ANDREW: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE HUR-RICANE MAKE LANDFALL?

• HOW BIG (CAT)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE

BUILT ENVIRONMENT?• EXPECTED DAMAGE?• EXPECTED SOCIO-

ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHERE WILL THE HUR-RICANE MAKE LANDFALL?



ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

TYPHOON TALAS: HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE TY-PHOON MAKE LANDFALL?



ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

• WHERE WILL THE TY-PHOON MAKE LANDFALL?



ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS

STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

POOR WORKMANSHIP

FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER



EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

EARTHQUAKE (KOBE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?

• WHEN?• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE


ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

EARTHQUAKE (TURKEY): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKESEARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING )

IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS

FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE

POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM

FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS




TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

TSUNAMI (JAPAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHERE WILL THE TSUNAMI OCCUR?



ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

TSUNAMI (INDONESIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS


• WHEN?, HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?

• THE DISASTER AGENTS?

• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?


ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES

TSUNAMIS TSUNAMIS

INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP

VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS

FLOODING

NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING

PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI




VOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTSVOLCANIC ERUPTION (CHILE): HAZARD,

VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHEN WILL THE ERUPTION OCCUR?

• DURATION?• HOW BIG (VEI)? • THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE


ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

VOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTSVOLCANIC ERUPTION (ICELAND): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA)

IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION)

IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS

IN PATH OF LAHARS

IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE




VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• LAVA FLOWS

• LAHARS

• EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava)

• “VOLCANIC WINTER”

WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

WILDFIRE (GREECE): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE WILDFIRE OCCUR?

• LOCATION?• DURATION?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE


ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

WILDFIRE (RUSSIA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LIGHTNING STRIKES

WILDFIRESWILDFIRES

MANMADE FIRES

PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE

WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT)

DRYNESS

HIGH TEMPERATURES

LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER

CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER

DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTER LABORATORIES

LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

LANDSLIDES (CHINA): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

• WHEN AND WHY WILL THE LANDSLIDE OCCUR?

• LOCATION AND SIZE?• THE DISASTER AGENTS?• VULNERABILITIES IN THE


ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS

LANDSLIDES (TAIWAN): HAZARD, VULNERABILITY, AND RISK ASSESSMENTS




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?




ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

HAZARD MAPPING AND RISK MODELING

EXAMPLE: HAZUS MULTIPLE-HAZARDE

OBJECTIVE

Clarify the capabilities and levels of analysis of the HAZUS-MH Risk

Model

OTHER HAZARDS

• NOTE: HAZUS has now been extended to include floods and severe windstorms, along with earthquakes..

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE

• The HAZUS-MH Earthquake Program is a comprehensive, state-of-the-art, loss estimation methodology that was established in the early 1980’s

• It is the standard for earthquake loss estimation by governments in earthquake-prone regions of the United States.

LOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATIONLOSS ESTIMATION

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE

HAZARDSHAZARDS

EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE

HAZARDSHAZARDS

EVENTEVENT

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

PEOPLESTRUCTURESPROPERTYENVIRONMENTINFRASTRUCTURE

EXPOSUREEXPOSURE

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS

EXPECTED EXPECTED

LOSSLOSS


• More than 137 earthquake and software professionals contributed to the development of the program through working groups, oversight groups, pilot studies in Boston, MA and Portland, OR, and calibration studies combining data and experience.


• Loss estimation for earthquakes involves the probabilistic integration of interlinked parameters of the community’s hazard and built environments into a comprehensive risk model.

OTHER EARTHQUAKE LOSS MODELS

• Private-sector companies (e.g., insurers and large business enterprises) have their own proprietary loss estimation models, which may differ from HAZUS in some areas of analysis..

GOOD DECISION MAKING

• HAZUS -- Earthquake provides a reliable tool for loss estimation, which is essential for good decision making about earthquake resilience at the local, region, state, and national levels of government.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE

• HAZUS is “a work in progress” that can only get better with time as new data (e.g., fragility curves for some elements of the community’s hazard and built environment) and new experiences are added after posteartquake studies of future damaging earthquakes.


• HAZUS will provide relative answers, but not absolute answers for all communities and all situations, but like the “Law of large numbers” underpinning the business of insurance, the answers will converge and provide a reasonable solution.


• HAZUS develops a loss estimation scenario that is based on specific information on the community’s hazard and built environments.

• The latter data are provided by the user.

SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLEENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLESOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT SOME DATA ON A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLEENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE


• HAZUS contains generic default data bases if the community does not have all of the required information on parameters characterizing its hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.


• HAZUS’ default data bases are linked to good performance in past earthquakes (i.e., to the adoption and enforcement of building codes and lifeline standards).


• HAZUS’ default databases include: characterization of the hazard, characterization of elements of the exposure, characterization of elements of vulnerability, and characterization of parameter uncertainty, BUT not community-specific databases.


• HAZUS provides the user with the option of replacing the basic databases (i.e., the “default” databases) with community-specific databases.


• HAZUS is most accurate when applied to a class of buildings and infrastructure in the community that is very similar to those in the default database, and least accurate when applied to a specific building or a specific element of infrastructure.


• Losses from earthquakes of M6.0 or less tend to be overestimated, and losses from great earthquakes of M8.0 to M9.5 may be so catastrophic that they are overwhelming and meaningless for scenario planning.


• Loss estimates for some global communities will have greater uncertainty than loss estimates for other communities (e.g., in California). Nevertheless, they are still useful for forming public policy for disaster resilience.

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM

• The community at risk should form a team comprised of:

1. Geologist (s)

2. Seismologist (s)

3. Structural engineer (s)

4. Geotechnical engineer (s)

HAZUS – EARTHQUAKE INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM

5. Economist (s) – finance officers

6. Sociologist(s)

7. Emergency planner(s), from state office of emergency services

8. Public works personnel

9. Loss estimation users.

10. Local business leader

THE GOAL OF EVERY CITYTHE GOAL OF EVERY CITY

• WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)

• WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G., FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IS A “24/7” EFFORT

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IS A “24/7” EFFORT

• KNOW YOUR HAZARDS

• KNOW YOUR CITY

• KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN…

• KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM…

• KNOW YOUR HAZARDS

• KNOW YOUR CITY

• KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN…

• KNOW HOW TO DO IT WHEM…

disaster preparedness a key element of becoming disaster resilient

Documents

expected damage

potential disaster agents

built environment

disaster reduction

environment elements

risk assessmentswhere

risk assessmentspurpose

loss of function