page 1Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

IXth European Interparliamentary Space ConferenceRome – 9 October 2007

IXth European Interparliamentary Space

Conference

Third Session. New aspects of competition in a global market for space activities

Antonio FABRIZIDirector of Launchers

European Space Agency

page 2Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

ContentsContents

1. Notions of competition and access to space in a global context

2. Guaranteed access to space for Europe

3. Cooperation and competition worldwide

4. Institutional demand for launch services

5. Development prospects and drivers

page 3Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

Competition and access to space in a global contextCompetition and access to space in a global context

Access to space as a highly strategic sectorSupporting public industrial policy objectivesFoundation of national security, civil and commercial space efforts Key element in safeguarding and fostering domestic industrial capabilities

High degree of freedom of action retained by public sectorAbsence of stringent international restrictions to public procurement (e.g. no WTO obligations on Government Procurement and no GATS commitments in general)Support through law, policies and practices

Measures fostering the domestic sectors and promoting a robust industrial and technology baseFinancial support to research and technologyLaunchers and launch infrastructure development programmes Support to launcher manufacturing and operationsCaptive procurement to domestic sources Encouraging policy and legislation

Developing, safeguarding and operating launch assets enables domestic activities in space.

page 4Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

European guaranteed access to spaceEuropean guaranteed access to space

Unrestricted utilisation of space is a strategic factor for Europe, for achieving its goals of growth and security and for the well being of its citizens.

Autonomy through own launch capability

Guaranteeing Europe’s role as major space-faring actor Pre-requisite of a consolidated European Space Policy Level of autonomy to be measured against the European content in the key elements guaranteeing

access to space for Europe– Operational launch systems– European industrial capabilities for research & technology, development & exploitation– Operational launch base– Launch service provider

Supply from internal sources needs to be secured, size and structure of the launcher market cannot be left to market forces alone.

Balance required between strategic and pure competition considerations Appropriate industrial policy and public authorities’ close attention

Guaranteed independent access to space for Europe remains an essential goal to be safeguarded at an affordable cost, in a balanced way between public and private sectors.

page 5Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

Cooperation and competition worldwideCooperation and competition worldwide

Worldwide increase in development activities

US: considerable changes following Space Shuttle withdrawal in 2010 and advent of new manufacturersRussia: increasing prices and decline of ICBM stockChina / Russia / Japan: new launch vehicle familiesIndustrial consolidation processes in Russia and China Asian players preparing entry to commercial market by strengthening ties with the US or manufacturing domestic satellite platforms to overcome US export restrictionsContinuous, significant government support for development of launcher systems and related technologies

Major changes expected around 2010-2015Demand for launch services Launch services overcapacity due to satellite market decline since 2001 led to withdrawal of

some launch service providers from commercial operations. Slight recovery since 2003. GTO heavy performance assured by 3 vehicles: Ariane, Proton, Sea Launch Recent launch failures have led to reduced availability of Sea Launch / Proton Arianespace in uncontested leading position in the commercial market

Present temporary under-capacity underlines the highly volatile nature of the launch service market

page 6Directorate of Launchers – IXth European Interparliamentary Space Conference

Institutional demand for launch servicesInstitutional demand for launch services

In Europe

Lack of a European launch service procurement policy Paradox = no overall optimisation of the European access to space

Limited size of the institutional market

Affordability and survival relying on success in the commercial market– Vulnerability to commercial market variations– Higher sensitivity vis-à-vis exchange rate fluctuations

Launch service procurement policy for ESA missions (2005) European Space Policy (EU/ESA) calling for Europe to “look first to its own launcher resources

when defining and executing European programmes, based on cost-efficiency, reliability and mission suitability”.

Europe should make best use of public resources by consistently optimising the utilisation of its launch capabilities which, in turn, continuously contribute to higher reliability and affordability in guaranteeing

its access to space.

Outside Europe

Stable launch rates guaranteed independently of the commercial demand

– Captivity of national institutional payloads and coherent utilisation policy – Prices adjusting to unfavourable commercial situation

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Development prospects and driversDevelopment prospects and driversComprehensive family of launch systems Ariane 5 Vega (qualification flight: second half of 2008) Soyuz at the CSG (exploitation starting early 2009)

European Space Policy Critical mass of launcher activities as pre-condition for the viability of the sector Continued development and coordination by ESA of European technological capabilities for long-term competitiveness

2008 ESA Council meeting at ministerial level decisionsTime line Short and medium term (until 2014)

– Ensure safe exploitation of Ariane 5, Vega and Soyuz from Europe’s Spaceport– Continue to prepare the future through the Future Launchers Preparatory Programme

Long term (after 2014)– Decisions required to ensure a guaranteed independent access to space

Main drivers Consolidate existing family of launchers, by completing current developments and accompanying

exploitation Prepare or start new developments, considering institutional needs and the need to increase

European independence Acquire new technologies and prepare for the future

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For the European launcher sector to take full benefit of the implementation of the European launcher sector drivers, it is of crucial importance that

European Parliaments, as both national representative bodies and depositaries of the exercise of legislative power, play a role in

encouraging the enactment of supportive legislation to launch services in Europe, also at European level.

In particular, a public procurement policy for institutional European launch services would promote the utilisation of European launch capabilities

in turn continuously contributing to optimising the use of public resources by increasing the reliability and affordability of Europe’s

guaranteed access to space.