Mission-Based Forecasting

ModeratorRADM Vincent Griffith

Director, Logistics Operations (J3), Defense Logistics Agency

Mr. Greg Parlier

Independent Contractor

CW5 Leon Cardona

Aviation Branch Maintenance Officer

Mr. Mark Moe

Director, Supportability and Sustainment, US Army Aviation Missile

Command

Ms. Barbara Robertson

Director, Business Process Support , DLA Land and Maritime

3

Capacity, Inventory & Knowledge

Capacity:

What we

can do

What we know

What we

have

Substitutable Ingredients of System

Performance

Knowledge: Inventory:

4

Management Innovation as a Strategic Technology

CustomerNeeds

MethodologyAdvancement

TechnologyEnablers

ManagementInnovation:

•MERBS1

•MBF2

•R33

•DSLP4

•LREWS5

TechnologyInnovation:

•CBM6

•RFID7

•TAV8

•ERP9

6Condition Based Maintenance

7Radio Frequency Identification

8Total Asset Visibility

9Enterprise Resource Planning

1Multi Echelon Readiness Based Sparing

2Mission Based Forecasting

3Readiness Responsive Retrograde

4Dynamic Strategic Logistics Planning

5Logistics Readiness and Early Warning System

5

Improved alignment between maintenance and supply will reduce excess and improve performance

Value of MVC Alignment

Improve Improve

Right Part Right Time

Bac

kord

ers

Excess P

arts

Readiness Risk

Underestimated Demand

Overestimated Demand

Fiscal Risk

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO6

Forecast Accuracy – Is It a Problem?

Best forecast can’t

capture anomalies

80

85

90

95

100

1st Pass 2nd Pass Goal

Aviation Stock Availability

FY 14

NMCS

Rates

Oct 3%

Nov 3%

Dec 3%

Jan 4%

Feb 4%

Mar 4%

Apr 3%

May 3%

Jun 4%

Jul 4%

Aug 3%

Sept 3%

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO

UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO7

Submitted By Platform Project Title

AED ALL All - Re-Evaluation of RECAP Standards for Top 200

Apache Apache AH-64 Searchlight

Apache Apache AH-64 Portable Airframe Alignment Fixture

Apache Apache AH-64 High Reliability M-TADS/TADS Turret Redesign (HRTUR)

Apache Apache AH-64D Main Transmission Sealing Improvement

Apache Apache AH-64 Hydraulic Utility Manifold Assembly

Apache Apache AH-64 Elastomeric Main Rotor head Assembly

Apache Apache AH-64D M-TADS/PNVS Elevation and Azimuth Drive Assemblies

CCWS CCWS IBAS BELRF Diode Pumped Laser Rangefinder (DP-LRF)

CCWS CCWS IBAS Solid State Xenon Beacon Tracker (XBT) Redesign

AED MH-60 UH-60 Hydraulic Pump Phase I

Utility Utility UH-60 Pitch Trim Actuator

Utility Utility Utility Pump Module Assembly (Hydraulic Power Supply)

Generate Combat Power for the Warfighter at a Lower Cost

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

OP

TE

MP

O

Differences by Unit/Geography

…with Proven, Validated Results4

AMCOM Top 200

~80% of

AWCF

Spend

Where do the dollars go?1

Primary Causes &

Why and Where?2

Induced Causes

Inherent

Reliability• Design

• Quality

• Application

• Obsolescence

• NEOF

• Time Based

Removals

• Bad Pubs

• Training Gaps

• Corrosion

• Accident

Which Leads to Targeted Action 3

What actions do we take?

Focusing Our Efforts on the Process To Save $$$

DE

MA

ND

S

UNITS BY LOCATION

How did we do?