directions in global research and development for crop ...€¦ · apvma future forum november 2014...

APVMA Future Forum

November 2014 © PhillipsMcDougall 1

Phillips McDougall Ltd.

Vineyard Business Centre

Saughland

Pathhead

Midlothian

EH37 5XP

Tel : 01875 320611

[email protected]

Directions in Global Research and

Development for Crop Protection Products Presentation at APVMA Future Forum

Canberra, Australia

5th November 2014

APVMA Future Forum


Regional Crop Protection Market Development

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160001

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199

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201

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201

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201

2

201

3

$m

NAFTA

Europe

Asia

Latin America

Africa / Middle East

APVMA Future Forum


Factors Affecting Agrochemical R&D Expenditure

Industry Consolidation

Fewer companies involved

Shift in R&D expenditure to seeds and GM traits

Increasing cost of new active ingredient R&D

More companies seeking to licence in product candidates

Harsh regulatory environment, particularly in the EU

Increasing focus on biologicals

Rise in expenditure to defend off patent molecules

Development of defining technologies

Formulations

Seed Treatments

APVMA Future Forum


Company Sales and R&D Expenditure 2013

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Monsanto DuPont Syngenta BASF Dow Bayer

Sa

les

$m

.

Agrochemicals Seed and Traits

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Monsanto DuPont Syngenta BASF Dow Bayer

R&

D E

xp

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dit

ure

$m

.

APVMA Future Forum


R&D expenditure of Leading Agrochemical Companies

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

US

$ m

illio

n

Agrochemical

Seed & Trait

APVMA Future Forum


New Active Ingredient Introductions

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25

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50

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51

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54

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56

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No.of Products

APVMA Future Forum


Agrochemical Active Ingredients in Development

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10

20

30

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50

60

70

80

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

a.i.s in development

APVMA Future Forum


Cost of Bringing a New Product to Market

42

32

11

36

54

32

24

25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Agrochemical

$ m

illio

n

Total = $256 m.

Registration

Environmental Chemistry

Toxicology

Field Trials

Chemistry

Tox/Env chemistry

Biology

Chemistry

17.613.4

28.3

13.6

28

17.9

17.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Crop Biotech trait

$ m

illio

n

Total = $136 m. Registration & Regulatory Affairs

Regulatory Science

Introgression breeding & testing

Commercial event production

Construct optimisation

Late discovery

Early Discovery

Agrochemical Plant biotechnology trait

Research

Development

Agrochemical costs based on 2009 Crop Life America/ECPA study Plant biotechnology trait costs based on 2011 Crop Life International study

APVMA Future Forum


Cost of Bringing a New Product to Market

32 41 42

30

4432

10

91118

20 3618

25

54

18

18

32

13

16

24

13

11

25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1995 2000 2005-8

Registration

Environmental Chemistry

Toxicology

Field Trials

Chemistry

Tox/Env Chemistry

Biology

Chemistry

$m

Research

72

Research

85

Research

94

Development

67

Development

146

Development

79

Total $152 m.

Total $256 m.

Total $184 m.

Results of Study undertaken for ECPA and CropLife America

Under 1107/2009, any exposure, regardless of level, is deemed unacceptable when a

substance triggers the hazard criteria and the product will not be registered, or it will be

refused re-registration.

APVMA Future Forum


2007 2012

Research of New a.i. 32.5%

Research of New a.i.

29.6%

Development of Generics

1.8%

Development of Generics

1.9%

Development of New a.i.

23.3%

Post Launch Development

31.1%

Product Monitoring / Stewardship

11.3%

Development of New a.i.

24.9%

Post Launch Development

31.4%

Product Monitoring / Stewardship

12.2%

Total = $2,328million Total = $2,943 million

Agrochemical Industry R&D Expenditure by Function

(Fourteen Reporting Companies Only)

Results of Study undertaken for ECPA and CropLife America

APVMA Future Forum


Compound Annual Growth Rate of the European Crop

Protection Market (% p.a.) € terms

2013/2008 2013/2003

EU15 8.5 2.8

New EU12 11.2 6.2

Other 18.1 14.8

APVMA Future Forum


Europe 33.3% Europe 16.4% Europe 31.3%

Rest of World 66.7% Rest of World 83.6% Rest of World 68.7%

1980-1989 1990-1999 2005-2014

Share of Active Ingredients Introduced or in Development

Total = 123 a.i.s Total = 128 a.i.s Total = 73 a.i.s

APVMA Future Forum


0

5

10

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25

30

35

1980

1981

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1983

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%%

Share of R&D investment due to Agrochemicals for Europe

APVMA Future Forum


Current Status of EU Re-registration Procedure

List No. of Products

Products of Commercial Significance*

Accepted into

Annex 1

Re - registration pending

/ resubmitted

Not accepted / Not

Suppo rted

Existing Products

1 90 90 56 0 34

2 148 114 34 0 80

3 389 262 0 153

4 204 12 0 8

Total 831 499 218 0 281

New Active Ingredients 86 49 8

Total Existing + New a.i.s 318 61

* as active ingredients for crop protection

379

109

** removed from system for re-submission

4

Biologicals 21 21 0 6 15

New Biologicals 14 12 1

Total New a.i.s 100 61 9

290

Updated December 2013

APVMA Future Forum


Number of new Active Ingredients Time period

1980/1989 1990/1999 2000/2009 In R&D

Herbicides Cereals 15 12 12 1

Soybean 11 10 1 1

Maize 2 10 9 2

Rice 11 19 15 7

F&V 2 1 0 0

Other 10 5 2 2

Total 51 57 39 13

Insecticides F&V 11 16 16 8

Rice 5 2 3 1

Cotton 9 12 3 0

Others 4 7 5 6

Total 29 37 27 15

Fungicides F&V 13 9 17 6

Cereals 14 16 8 2

Rice 9 5 7 1

Others 0 0 0 0

Total 36 30 32 9

Others 7 3 5 0

Total 1 23 127 103 37

Average annual rate of introduction 12.3 12.7 10.3 7.4

Product Introductions and R&D by Crop

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1

1

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2

4

4

2 0

1 7

5

6

1

1

13

1

25

6.3

2010/13

APVMA Future Forum


Key Classes in R&D / Early Commercialisation

Herbicides

• Products for the control of glyphosate resistant weeds

Insecticides

• Ryanodine receptor blockers

• Non Neonicotinoid sucking pest control

Fungicides

• Pyrazole carboxamide Succinate dehydrogenase inhibitors

• Low application rate Oomycete disease control

APVMA Future Forum


Increasing Focus on Biologicals

o Less Harsh Regulatory Environment

o EU Agrochemical Regulations (1107/2009)

‘Comparative assessment and substitution with a safer alternative’

o EU Agricultural Policy

Potential push to ‘environmental’ solutions

o No withdrawal period prior to harvest

o Move to use in combination with existing chemical solutions

o Few Residue issues

o Favoured by food supply companies

BUT

o Little sign of any significant increase in sales

o Concerns of reproducibility of action in open field situations

APVMA Future Forum


Agrochemical Company Activity - Biologicals

Company Acquisition

BASF Becker Underwood (2012)

Bayer AgroGreen (2010), AgraQuest (2012), Prophyta (2012)

Syngenta Devgen (2012), Pasteuria Bioscience (2012)

APVMA Future Forum


Crops Planted with GM Varieties in 2013

Total = 427.0 million acres (+4.8% over 2012)

NAFTA 46.7%

Latin America 40.6%

Rest of World 1.5%

Canada

Canola – 90.8%

Soybean – 90.7%

USA

Soybean – 96.0%

Maize – 92.1%

Cotton – 99.3%

Canola – 91.2%

Argentina

Soybean – 98.1%

Maize – 90.2%

Brazil

Soybean – 86.6%

Maize – 81.4%

India

Cotton – 96.9%

China

Cotton – 80.1%

Asia 11.2%

APVMA Future Forum


Key Factors in GM Market

Refuge in the bag and reduced refuge areas

Input Traits – Maize, Soybean, Cotton, Canola

➤ dicamba / 2,4-D / HPPD

➤ Insect resistance traits for soybean

➤ VIP traits

Output Traits

➤ Drought / Stress tolerance

Trait Stacking

➤ SmartStax

Market Potential

➤ Value growth through technology introduction in USA

➤ Volume growth in Brazil and Asia due to further acceptance

APVMA Future Forum


GM Seed Product Introductions

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Total

Corn 5 6 12 4 6 2 35

Soybean

1 3 1 4 9

Cotton

1

1 2 3 7

Canola

1

2 3

Potato

1

1

Rice

1 1

Total 5 8 13 9 9 12 56

* Scheduled

APVMA Future Forum


Total GM Trait Patents for all Crops 2008 - 2013

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Proportion of Patents1 Attributed to Different traits for the Big 6

Companies and Chinese Institutions

1Only those patents which were

identified as pertaining to modification

of plants to produce altered traits were

used in the following charts. Duplicates

for the same patent filed in different

countries were also removed.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BA

SF

Bayer

Do

w

Du

Pon

t P

ionee

r

Mo

nsanto

Syn

gen

ta

Ch

ine

se

Institu

tion

s

Pro

port

ion o

f P

ate

nts

(%

)

Yield

Reproduction andDevelopment

Quality Improvement

Nutrient Use

Nematode Resistance

Insect Resistance

Herbicide Tolerance

Disease Resistance

Abiotic Stress

APVMA Future Forum


Patents for Abiotic Stress 2008-2013

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber

of

Pate

nts

Leading Six Multinationals Other Organisations

APVMA Future Forum


Rice 14.3%

Soybean 9.5%

Sugarbeet 4.8% Cotton 9.5%

Fruit and Vegetables 4.8%

Maize 57.1%

Proportion of Patents Attributed to Abiotic Stress in Different Crops for

the Big 6 Companies

n = 21

Note: Many patents do not relate

to one specific crop, and thus are

not included in these data.

APVMA Future Forum


Proportion of Patents Attributed to Abiotic Stress in Different Crops for

Chinese Institutions.

n = 295

Rice 39.0%

Fruit & Vegetables 8.1%

Maize 9.2%

Oilseed Rape 3.1%

Others 16.6%

Soybean 9.0%

Sugarcane 0.7%

Wheat 8.1% Alfalfa 0.1%

Cotton 5.8%

Note: Many patents do not relate

to one specific crop, and thus are

not included in these data.

APVMA Future Forum


RNAi – Gene Silencing

Ribonucleic acid interference (RNAi) is a method of gene silencing in target organisms

Image Source: New York Times

The plant is genetically

engineered to produce a

double stranded RNA

molecule that matches the

product of a key gene in the

target organism.

The target organism ingests

some of the GM plant

containing the double

stranded RNA molecule.

The double stranded RNA

molecule inactivates the

product of the key gene in

the target organism,

silencing the gene, resulting

in the death of the worm.

RNAi as a method of in-plant insect pest control

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RNAi – Current Seed Products in Development

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RNAi – Identified Patents for all Crops 2008 - 2013

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Crop Protection R&D, Key Trends

• Fewer Major Companies involved

• High cost limits commercial capabilities of small companies

• Inward licencing/acquisition a growing trend in agrochemicals and seeds/traits

• After a slump, R&D into chemical crop protection products increasing again

• Focus on growing markets and away from crops affected by GM traits

• Growth rate in R&D expenditure now similar between agrochemicals and seed/traits

• Commercial GM trait R&D focussed on high value crops

• Significant number of GM trait patents outside ‘big 6’ companies

• GM trait R&D shifting from input to output/agronomic traits

• Next technology hurdle/opportunity - RNAi

APVMA Future Forum


30000

32000

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40000

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50000

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58000

60000

6200019

90

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18

$m

Crop Protection Market in 2013 Dollar Terms

Forecast Real Growth

2013 to 2018

2.6% p.a.

APVMA Future Forum


Disclaimers

The information contained in this presentation constitutes our best judgement at the

time of publication, but is subject to change. Phillips McDougall do not accept any

liability for any loss, damage or any other accident arising from the use of the

information in this presentation.

The information given in this presentation has been drawn from analyses and reviews

presented in the Phillips McDougall products AgriService, Seed Service, GM Trait

Database, AMIS Global and AgreWorld.

Phillips McDougall maintain a wide range of databases covering the crop protection and

seed industries, this presentation presents only headline information. Access to these

databases can be gained through subscription or consultancy. Our market research

databases track product sales from global market totals down to brand level sales by

crop and country in both volume, value and area treated terms.

For more information about these products please visit

www.phillipsmcdougall.com

www.agreworld.com

directions in global research and development for crop ...€¦ · apvma future forum november 2014...

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