Dimensions of Agrarian Crisis and Underlying Policies

Dr. G. V. RamanjaneyuluCentre for Sustainable Agriculture

National Workshop on Rethinking Economic Policies for Income Security in Agriculture

The Crisis

• Increasing Costs of Cultivation

• Trapped in high-risk high-input agriculture

• Unremunerative Prices; Devaluing of agricultural produce

• Disparity and neglect of rainfed areas and dryland crops

• Ecologically unsustainable models

• Lack of holding capacity among small farmers

• Processing and marketing not in farmers’ hands

• Decrease in public investments; skewed subsidies

• Increasing Living Costs

Wrong framework

• Our models of agriculture and support systems are not based on our situations and needs

• Green Revolution was technology and productivity centric

• From 90s we have become technology and market centric

• Both never cared for the externalities

Agrarian Crisis

Farmer

Policies Markets

• Small holdings• Lack of bargaining power• Increased tenancy• Lack of knowledge and skills

• Low investments in agril

• Against small holders

• Support high extrnl input agril

• Monocultured and monopolised markets

• More cost addition than value addition

Dimensions of Crisis• Agriculture Crisis: Neglect of agriculture, unsustainable

models• Resource depletion• Increasing chemicalisation• Monoculture• Increasing risks of failure• Lack investments

• Agrarian Crisis: Threatening livelihoods of small and marginal farmers

• Decreasing incomes• Lack of support systems

People depending on Agriculture in India

69.999.6

78.2 92.5 110.7 127.31 118.7

27.3

31.5 47.5 55.5

74.6

106.1144.3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Indian Census 1951-2011

Cultivators Agriculture labour

49.93%

19.5%

52.78%

16.69%

43.35%

26.33%

37.82%

22.69%

35.24%

23.75%

31.65%

26.38%

24.64%

29.96%69.43%

69.47% 69.68%60.51%

58.99%

58.03%

54.6%

• People depending on agriculture has come down from 69.43% to 54.6% in last 60yrs• For the first time the number of cultivators is lower than agriculture workers both in proportion and absolute

numbers• Between 2001-2011 about 86.10 lakh people have left farming in India which is about 2358/day• In 2011 main cultivators (depending on farm income for more than 6 months) are only 95.8 m which is

about 8% of Indian population)

(People in Million) (% of workers)

Source: Census of India 1951-2011 http://www.agrariancrisis.in

Where are they going?• From 2004-05 to 2009-10, only 2 million additional employment

was generated but 55 million were added to working age population!

• 25.1 million people lost their self-employment• Increase in the number of casual workers by 21.9 million, while

growth in the number of regular workers nearly halved between 2004-05 and 2009-10, compared with the previous 5 year period.

Sector 2004-05 2009-10 Difference

Agriculture 258.93 243.21 -15.71

Manufacturing 55.77 48.54 -7.23

Services 112.81 112.33 -0.48

Non-Manufacturing (construction)

29.96 56.10 26.14

TOTAL 457.46 460.18 2.72

Sector-wise employment (millions)

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

Farmers suicides in India

No. of suicides

Source: NCRB 1995-2012

Total 2,84,694 in 18 years

http://www.agrariancrisis.in

Farmers Suicides in India, 2012

Four major cotton growing states form 68% of the suicidesAP and Maharashtra form 46 %

Source: NCRB 1995-2012, http://www.ncrb.nic.in

Total 13754

http://www.agrariancrisis.in

The table only includes States whose annual averages have risen or fallen by over 100 farm farm suicides between the to periods. It also treats Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as one unit for data purposes.Source: NCRB Accidental Deaths & Suicides in India Reports 1995-2012

Average (2004-12)

Average (1995-03)

Difference

Andhra Pradesh 2376 1613 763Assam 310 159 152Jharkand 109 8 101Madhya Pradesh+Chhattisgarh* 2513 2327 186Maharashtra 3745 2656 1089

*MP state was formed in 2001

Increasing crisis

Crop A2+FL/ha C2/ha A2+FL/q C2/q C3/q Yield q/ha

Implicit price/q

MSP/q

Paddy 35104.50 54202.54 603.62 932.35 1033.43 54.69 1122.25 1050

Cotton 27204.15 42919.35 1525.73 2405.53 2547.15 17.53 2905.54 3000

Jower 16012.21 23757.04 1000.62 1429.67 1572.64 14.17 1452.57 540

Maize 26735.73 35564.55 576.95 531.69 917.69 44.25 547.34 540

Redgram 16519.59 30960.04 1674.31 3149.79 3465.00 9.50 4316.33 2300

Moong 7351.55 12624.29 2340.03 4013.55 4414.92 3.14 5103.19 2750

Blackgram 14304.52 25555.33 1615.53 2554.59 3207.54 5.54 4422.75 2520

Groundnut 24771.12 35699.44 1765.24 2537.04 2791.30 13.27 2312.25 2100

Cost estimations for 2009-10

Focus on Farm Incomes & Sustainability

• Make incomes of small farmers the focus of Agriculture policy; Sustaining small farmers not pushing them out of agriculture

• Economical and Ecological Sustainability

Why?

• Foundation of Rural economy; Livelihood of 60% of our citizens; Required to ensure nation’s Food Security

• Production-focused support policy of 1960’s has broken down

• Growth models in other countries show: unless the model has focus on farm incomes, growth is not poverty-reducing.