digital transition: the heroes and zeroes - nicholas lovell, founder, gamesbrief
TRANSCRIPT
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The digital transition 2.0
Heroes and Zeroes
Nicholas Lovell
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About me
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• Amazon US: http://amzn.to/RQwAhA
• Amazon UK: http://amzn.to/R6kzHA
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Subscribe to the blog!
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Heroes and zeros 2012
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My zeroes
From $20 billion rumoured valuation to less than cash
Zynga The Old Republic Subscription MMOs
3DS below cost. PS Vita DOA Handhelds
80% share price fall. Breach of debt covenants THQ
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My heroes
Sony’s stealth virtual worldPlayStation Home Apple’s game of the year 2011 Nimblebit
$380 million exit to Sony Gaikai
AWS. Kindle. Kindle Fire. Amazon
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How did you do?
Zynga
Subscription MMOs
Handhelds
THQ
PlayStation Home
Nimblebit
Gaikai
Amazon
My prediction
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Hero
Hero
Hero
Hero
Your prediction
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Hero
Hero
Hero
Result
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Hero
Hero
Hero
YOU WIN
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Would you buy Zynga?
Market value 1,716.9Financial debt 100.0Cash (394.4)Marketable securities (928.7)Long-term marketable securities (325.6)San Francisco Headquarters (274.8)Zynga's Enterprise Value (106.5)
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Would you buy Zynga?
• Yes
• No
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Heroes and zeros 2013
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Epic Games
“The free-to-play game is going to win”
- Mike Sweeney, co-founder
HERO
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Epic: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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NPD
• By territory• Physical• AAA• Upfront payments
NPD’s focus
• Global• Digital• Casual, AAA, indie…• Freemium, paymium
and more• Mobile, social,
browser…
Industry future
ZERO
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NPD: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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DeNA
ARPDAU > $1Q2 revenues: $627 m
HERO
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DeNA: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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Paymium
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Unlock the true fans
PRICE
Demand
Revenue opportunity
Marketing opportunity
HERO
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Paymium: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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Windows 8 AppStore
ZERO
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Win8 Appstore: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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World of Warcraft
• 10 million subs• Down from 12 million• Small uplift from Mists of Pandaria
ZERO
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World of Warcraft: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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Paid DLC
• 30% of iOS/Android IAP revenue in the US comes from transactions valued at $50
• 51% comes from transactions of more than $20• Players don’t pay for content; they pay for database entries
ZERO
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PDLC: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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Kickstarter
HERO
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Kickstarter: Hero or Zero?
• Hero
• Zero
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Did you agree?
Epic
NPD
DeNA
Paymium
Windows 8 Appstore
World of Warcraft
Paid DLC
Kickstarter
I said
Hero
Zero
Hero
Hero
Zero
Zero
Zero
Hero
You said
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Thank you
Follow my blogwww.gamesbrief.com
Buy my bookshttp://amzn.to/R6kzHA