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TRANSCRIPT
Imagination at work
J. R. Immelt
May 18, 2016
Digital Industrial Company
Caution Concerning Forward-Looking Statements: This document contains "forward-looking statements" – that is, statements related to future events that by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. For details on the uncertainties that may cause our actual future results to bematerially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements, see http://www.ge.com/investor-relations/disclaimer-caution-concerning-forward-looking-statements as well as our annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements. This document also includes certain forward-looking projected financial information that is based on current estimates and forecasts. Actual results could differ materially.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures:In this document, we sometimes use information derived from consolidated financial data but not presented in our financial statements prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Certain of these data are considered “non-GAAP financial measures” under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission rules. These non-GAAP financial measures supplement our GAAP disclosures and should not be considered an alternative to the GAAP measure. The reasons we use these non-GAAP financial measures and the reconciliations to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are posted to the investor relations section of our website at www.ge.com.
General Electric Capital Corporation (GECC) has been merged into GE and our financial services business is now operated by GE Capital Global Holdings LLC (GECGH). In this document, we refer to GECC and GECGH as “GE Capital”. We refer to the industrial businesses of the Company including GE Capital on an equity basis as “GE”. “GE (ex-GE Capital)” and /or “Industrial” refer to GE excluding GE Capital. Our financial services segment previously referred to as GE Capital is now referred to as Capital. GE’s Investor Relations website at www.ge.com/investor and our corporate blog at www.gereports.com, as well as GE’s Facebook page and Twitter accounts, contain a significant amount of information about GE, including financial and other information for investors. GE encourages investors to visit these websites from time to time, as information is updated and new information is posted.
2
Environment
Economic volatility
+ U.S. is ok … Europe slowly improving
+ China feels better … pipeline is strong
+/- Growth regions are mixed; big projects need financing
- Resource markets remain tough
+/- Low interest rates … no inflation
Business model strength
Diversity … portfolio & market
Productivity for GE & customer … Digital Industrial leadership
GE Store delivering … $316B backlog; productivity momentum
Industrial financing … capex opex
~$30B cash unallocated … ~20% reduction in shares & competitive yield
Consistent delivery despite volatility
3
Macro dynamicsOil & Gas dynamics
Year on track despite volatility in Oil & Gas
• Business focused on what it can control
Restructuring + cost actions
Better quality and service
Building bench
• Better positioned coming out of cycle
• Impact on Transportation & Power Conversion
Revenue Op Profit
~(15)-(20)%
~(30)%
Other business dynamics
+ Aviation … services strength on ~$119B backlog; engineering + supply chain execution
+ Power … HA gas turbine volume + services/upgrades strength; Alstom integration + synergies
+ Healthcare … margin expansion through investment in product cost out + SG&A execution
+ Renewables … onshore wind volume, product cost out; Alstom integration + synergies
(2016 outlook)
4
2016 Industrial
Power Stable
Renewable Energy Improving
Oil & Gas Challenging
Energy Connections Mixed
Aviation Strong
Healthcare Improving
Transportation Challenging
Appliances & Lighting Mixed
Corporate
Industrial
Outlook
Market Revenue OP
++
++
- -
++
+
+
-
- -
+/++
++
++
- -
++
+/++
+/++
-
- -
+
+
+ Power strengthening … Renewables
strong
+ Services accelerating with digital
+ Healthcare improving … U.S. strong
+ Aviation backlog is robust
+ Opportunity for global growth
- Oil markets uncertain
Looking forward: 2H orders + backlog
Diversity helps … positioned for 2017 & beyond
+/++
+
- -
++
+/++
+/++
-
-
+
+
OP(ex. BD)
5
2016 operating framework
Operating EPS-a) $1.45-1.55
Free cash flow $28-31B+ dispositions
Cash returned ~$26Bto investors
1
2
3
• Organic growth of 2-4%• Core margin expansion • O&G ~30% offset by Aviation, Healthcare,
Renewables, Power• Corporate @ $2.0-2.2B• Alstom ~$.05; Appliances gain ~$.20-c)
• Restructuring = gains• Total FX impact ~$(.02) at today’s rates
• CFOA of $30-32B-b); ~$18B Capital dividend-c)
• Dispositions of $2-3B-b)
• Net P&E of ~$4B
• Dividend of ~$8B• Buyback of ~$18B
(a- Industrial + Verticals
(b- Deal taxes are excluded from CFOA and included in dispositions
(c- Subject to regulatory approval
$3-4B-b)$29-32B
6
2015 Buybackimpact
Alstom Industrialgrowth
2018FOutlook
GE Operating EPS-a)
$1.25-1.35
$2.00+~5%
~$.35
Portfolio execution
Capital Alstom
~$.15-.20
~8.3B shares
Yr. 5 cost synergies ~$3B
Organic growth
Margins/returns
Free cash flow
Corporate cost
(a- Industrial + Verticals
GE performance
What is important
1
2
3
4
Sustain Industrial op
profit growth
Executing Digital IndustrialCash generation & capital
allocation
~$.32
Partial Synchrony benefit in 2015
$1.31
+ Leverage opportunity
7
Portfolio: GE Capital exit1
$171B
~$35B
Executed
Executed
$36B debt exchange
Synchrony split
Corporate reorganization
Returned $32B in dividends/split
Exited U.S. depository banks
Applied for SIFI de-designation
To Go
• Close remaining sales
• Exit businesses requiring regulatory
supervision
• Return capital … $23B to go
Signings
+$65BSynchrony
To Go
$12B
~$23B
Executed
Dividends
To Go
$20B+Synchrony
2015 Synchrony split proceeds
$4B+ dividend
2016 $18B target
$7.5B paid to date
’17/’18 ~$13B … majority in ’17
Closings $156B executed
~$50B to go
P/TBV 1.3X to date
1.1X total (in line)
+ Aviation Services … #1 aircraft lessor
+ Energy Financial … customer solutions, GE pull through
+ Industrial Finance … financing solutions for GE customers
~$80B
~$1.6B
ENI ’16E NI
Verticals
8
Power: Services
Renewables
Revenue
~$10B
GE + Alstom: more competitive businessPower: Equipment
Revenue
~$19B
Revenue
~$5B
Revenue
~$9B
Grid
Installed base up 60%
New technology upgrade offerings
Expanding other OEM capability
Local presence – stronger global footprint
Alstom margin accretion opportunity
Digital ecosystem
Turnkey/total plant design capabilities
GE2GE: HRSGs, boilers, other BOP/extended scope
Improved overall performance levels … +0.5 pts. efficiency
Potential for steam growth
Best technology portfolio in the industry
Strong Hydro capabilities
Offshore wind growth platform
Expanded onshore global wind footprint
More efficient supply chain
Alstom high tech grid solutions
Comprehensive HV/MV/LV portfolio
EBOP – connected solutions … Predix platform opportunity
Pull through opportunities
+
Strategic value
(2016E revenue)
9
Synergies in action
D11 Enhanced Steam Path GE installed base
GT/HRSG Upgrade Expand scope
Analytics: Lifing, M&D Expand scope
Other OEM capability
+2% efficiency
Cost
+$200K/unit
$60MM
productivity
Cycle time
Operational strength in services
$2.6B
’15
~$5B
’18F
Insourcing benefits
$500MM margin opportunity
through insourcing
Services momentum
HRSG/Boiler
Generators
Steam Turbines
+ Plant efficiency/output+ Doosan acquisition
+ Superior Alstom technology
+ Superior Alstom technology
30+/year
15+/year
40+/year
More competitive company
(GE2GE revenue)
10
Driving Alstom growth & execution
+ Services integration very strong
Able to manage projects
+ Big supply chain opportunity
SG&A overlap is clear
Integrating new products … offshore wind, grid, hydro
No surprise in Europe restructuring
+ Solid opportunity for growth synergies … not in base case
~$.05
$.15-.20
EPS outlook
$-
2015 2016E 2018F
2016 metrics/dynamics
Gaining traction commercially
~$1.1B cost synergies on track
Expect CFOA breakeven/slightly positive
2017: ~$1.9B synergy benefits offset by ~$(0.8)B synergy costs
Riskreduction
Execution
Upside
Delivering for investors
Strong strategic & financial benefits
$.08-.10
2017F
11
Investing & monetizing the Digital IndustrialDigital revenue
$6B+
$5B
2016 Predix goals
2016E2015
Digital cost productivity
$0.5B$0.4B
2016E2015
>30%
Predix GA launch in February … >8K
developers
15+ partners signed since 1/1
APM limited availability launch in March
AUM
# GE apps
Developers
Partners
200K+
100+
~20K
~50
+ +>30%
1Q sales $1B, +16%
1Q orders $1.2B, +29% … 1st
smart intermodal order on Predix
’16 orders estimate $7B+
1Q productivity ~$90MM
Enable $500MM+ in cost
productivity
Connect 75 factories in ’16
Leading indicators are positive …
2
Investor view
Increase productivity and margins
Increase services growth rate
Improve customer value … products & services
In the flow of platform “value creation”
1
4
2
3
12
Investing in building blocks
Enterprise Software Digital Thread
Platform: Predix launched
Predix
• Analytical strength
• Easy to scale & develop apps
Edge devices
• Collect, store, & analyze data
• Full compute power at the edge
Differentiator: Digital Twin
• Continuously increase insights
• Materials & analytics
APM
• Machine & equipment health
• Reliability management
• Driving yield, cycle, less downtime
• Making GE the best example of II at work
Commercial
Cybersecurity
• Protect physical industrial assets
• Validate products to security standards
• Delivering customer outcomes
• Managing, planning, & optimizing terminal ops
• Direct sales in existing verticals + new markets
• Global partners
Predix
Non-GE industriesCompetitive products
Opens upproductivity pipeline
Inspectionas a service
Incrementalrevenue
Key to coreservices growth
New markets &business model
Accelerate marginenhancement
New team &capability in place
Very different capability set than consumer internetGE playing to win … investing in capability
13
Digital driving growth
Key products
Power AGPs, Op Flex, APM, Digital plant>30%
Oil & Gas LNG Max Suite, System 1~40%
Renewables PowerUP, Digital plant>40%
Aviation Flight Efficiency Services>30%
Energy Conn. Grid Solutions & Automation>100%
Transportation Train Performance, Smart Intermodal>30%
Healthcare APM, HealthCloud<10%
Current Energy Mgmt., Intelligent EnterprisesF
All businesses contributing to growth …
Partners
One partner program across all verticals; 15+
partners signed since launch in 1Q’16
800+ developers trained on using Predix; 200+
partner executives trained on Predix and APM
’16E orders
Predix
Predix platform launched Feb ’16 with >8k
developers provisioned to date … key
enabler of application growth
Expanding catalog enabling more
advanced development
Customers in 5 non-GE industries … service
providers in 6 countries
Expanding services growth rate
Business
Predix Building pipelineF
Predix
14
Enterprise data + machine data driving ~$250MM in productivity Internal reference site … services tools key for Predix customers
Digital thread for services
PREDIXPlatform
Apps
Tools
APMAnalytics-
based Lifing
Resource
Planning
Contract
Management
Field Vision Single tool to access all customer related information
Applications
optimizing service event activities
Elimination of low value manual work
Leverages PredixDigital Twin
Across GE
Repair &
Scoping
15
Industrial segment profit growth
(Industrial segments AAGR)
Increase services growth rate
Strong performance in Aviation & Power through launch of LEAP and H turbine
Grow Industrial margins
Target organic growth > peers
Looking forward
1
2
3
Profit growth (ex. Alstom)
~5%
Tailwind Steady state Headwind
2011-2015:
2016:
Aviation, Oil & Gas, Transportation
Aviation, Healthcare, Renewables
Power
Power, Energy Connections
Healthcare, Renewables, Energy Conn.
Oil & Gas, Transportation
Profit growth
6%
2011-2015 results
Organic revenue
Margins (’11-’15 V pts.)
Services profit
Equipment profit
+5%
+2.2 pts.
+7%
+6%
3
4
Market dynamics:
16
'15 '16E
Services revenue
Backlog $226 +
++ Growing installed base and $/installed base
Going after every asset … mature & competition
Digital opens new value
Big pipeline of upgrades
($ in billions)
Accelerate Services growth
Key initiatives
• $15B revenue by 2020• Accretive margins
$48
Digital Mature fleet More upgrades Productivity
• Analytics driving new value• Recapture installed base
• 9F & 9E AGP, FTF, DLN• Alstom steam, DII, MLX2
• Analytics-based lifing• Analytics-based workscope
Services profit
++7%
Services expanding
Margins 32% +
2015 2016E
500+
275
AGPs
Other
(Power Services # upgrades)
~125104 135-150
'11-'15 Goal(ex. Alstom)
17
Big product launches: H gas turbineH-class segment
++
~31%
~24%
~10%
2013 2014 2015 2020F
Positive impact in 2017
+ $300MM launch cost behind us … positive margins in profit
+ 10th H turbine = 1,000th F turbine $/kw
(% of HDGT >35 MW)
GE H penetration -% 29% 36% ++
• ~24 shipments in 2016 … ~12th unit profitable
• 35 units in backlog + 16 steam turbines, 39 generators, 17 HRSGs
• More content/projects … ~60%
Differentiated technology
Flawless validation: zero fault testing (7HA.02)
Record output: 432MW simple cycle & 603MW plant
Integrated solutions … GE/Alstom power island
World-class execution
Fulfillment on-track: 4 shipments with 20+ to go
Generational leadership
+ $100B+ revenue over time+ Strong market position+ Big IB value & upgrades
18
Big product launches: LEAP engine Unit delivery & cost curve Aviation margins
LEAP launch costs (100-200) bps.- Driving down cost curve to offset initial
pricing
Lower R&D + 50-100 pts.- Post-LEAP/Passport R&D reductions
Services/Digital + 50-150 pts.- Delivering insights with predictive
analytics
’16F ’17F ’18F ’19F
~100
~500
~1,150
~1,900’16E
’17F
’18F
’19F
’15
• >10K engines on order
• MAX/C919 sole source + neo >50%
• 7 new factories
• LEAP on time and meeting fuel
performance commitments
• Zero flight stoppages
• A320 new CFM firsts- Hot operation test
- Transatlantic flight
- A321 1st flight
- High altitude
- Cold weather
- Flight to China
LEAP is a trademark of CFM International, a 50-50 JV between Snecma and GE
Generational leadership+ ~13K NB aircraft installed base by 2020+ Broad positioning with right customers+ Launch new technology GE benefit
Positive impact in 2017+ Aviation earnings growth with launch + Leverage GEnx learnings+ Team incented to deliver
+
=
=/+
=/+
22.3%
Launch update
LEAP-1A LEAP-1C
LEAP-1B
(Cost/engine)
19
Grow margins
(a- Excluding non-operating pension, restructuring and other & gains
Lower product cost- Product management focus
1
Re-capture supply chain value- Material deflation, drive GE2GE
2
Advanced Manufacturing- Brilliant factory, digital thread
3
Leaner structure- SG&A rationalization, smaller HQ
4
2016E2015
14.8% 14-14.5%
Industrial margins(Segments + Corporate-a)
Margin initiatives
2016 dynamics
New product mix … LEAP + HA turbine launch
Price pressure … Oil & Gas, Healthcare
Material deflation … commodities , strong $
Manufacturing cost productivity
−
+
+
−
Ex. Alstom 15.3% +~50 bps.
2018F
16%+
20
Should cost analysis
Digital thread
Design for cost
2015 Goal
~5%+
Product cost
Margins in action
Advanced manufacturing
Product management lab
Sourcing COE
FastWorks
GE Store
Additive Center
Equipment margins
+ Should cost … system optimization
+ Global footprint
Transportation
+ Product catalog
+ Supplier consolidation
Oil & Gas
+ Product catalog
+ Reducing part count
Healthcare
Leaner structure
SG&A Corporate-a)
2015 Goal
13.9% ~12%
2015 Goal
$2.1B ‒
+ $2.7B of structural SG&A cost out since 2011
+ Active restructuring … $3B+ in 2016 … 240 projects at ~1.5 year payback
+ Leaner HQ … optimize governance
+ Digital thread … benefits of simplification … layers, FastWorks
+ 6 functions, 10,000
employees
+ Leveraging scale … 5
centers globally
GE Store
Global Operations
~65%
(% of sales ex. Alstom)
(a- Excluding non-operating pension, restructuring and other & gains
21
Invest in growth
Organic revenue growth (%)
5%
2-4%
~5%
+ Funded R&D at high level
+ Strong global footprint
+ Organic launches & gap fillers
+ Leadership digital investments
’11-’15 2016E Long-term
goal
GE Store investments
Revenue drivers in uncertain economy
+ Increase service growth
+ Execute on backlog … H/LEAP gaining share
+ Lead in Renewables PTC build out … strong ’16-’18 profile + global share
+ Restore Healthcare growth … product cost out, improved China & U.S.
+ Alstom products at GE growth rate … GE2GE
+ Gain share in Oil & Gas … building strong operating leverage
+ Current … LED/efficiency platform
+ Industrial Finance to provide customer solutions
+ Launch new platforms … turbo prop, silicone
carbide, cell therapy
+ Fill product gaps … Oil & Gas, Healthcare
+ Break out lab ... “$1MM loco” internationally
GE Store execution
(Industrial segments)
22
Winning around the world($ in billions)
International orders
% total 60% 64%
$49$67
++
+
+7% ‘10-’15 CAGR
Using the portfolio to meet local needs …
renewables & accessible power, efficient
transportation, & improved infrastructure
More global with Alstom
2010 2015 2016E
Supplying mobile power for Indonesia
• Generating 500MW of fast power
• Powering 4 million Indonesian homes
Digital partnership with China Eastern
• Using big data to drive efficiency, improved
fleet management, & cost savings
Modernizing India’s railway
• Supplying 1,000 locos & services
• Building local manufacturing & service facilities
Powering Asia with renewable energy
• Supplying China’s fourth-largest hydro plant
• Enabling wind power generation in Laos
Gain share in Europe
• Leverage Alstom position for long-term GE growth
Egypt 2 GW … 9F combined cycle + BoP $650M
EFS ... $50MM debt converted to equity
ECA financing integration
Global financing
150+ resources
15 countries
23
2015 2018F
Industrial FCF conversion-a)
~95%85%
Industrial cash flow
Improve Alstom FCF conversion
+ Significant cash flow benefit from net synergies
+ Limited working capital and P&E investment
+ Ongoing tax benefits
+ Working capital improvements
+ AR 2%/yr … collection efficiency, reduce delinquencies
+ Inventory ¼ turn … reduce cycle time, safety stock, lower product cost
+ AP 2 days to pay … leverage scale
+ Restructuring cash costs significantly
+ Lower net P&E investment … post LEAP & HA turbine launch
Increased focus on cash and returns … FCF targets aligned with LTIP & AEIP
4
Alstom ~90%
~5 pts.
Key areas of focusImprovement
drivers
2-3 pts.
2-3 pts.
(a- Industrial free cash flow ex. deal taxes and pension funding divided by Industrial operating net income
FCF conv. ex gains 91%
24
Capital allocation
~$145BIndustrial CFOA
Capital dividends
Synchrony
Dispositions
$20B+
+
+ Returns > 15%
+ Clear GE Store value
+ Improve competitive position
+ Enhance EPS
Cash sources (‘15-’18F)
Financial + strategic considerations
Backward integration
Fill technical gaps
Bolt-ons
+
Incremental
leverage
Reinvest in organic growth … P&E, R&D, global, digital, pension
Sustain an attractive dividend … yield > peers ($35B)
Return $55B from Capital to investors via buyback
Disciplined capital allocation … buyback vs. M&A
Cash uses
M&A priorities
~$30B capital unallocated with
leverage
25
Incentives are aligned
AEIP (annual)
EPS
Op profit
Margins
FCF
Long-term incentive plan (’16-’18)-a)
Product launch
Digital execution
Global projects
Integration
Strategic/organization/risk
Investment
Quality
Share/customer
New markets
+ One goal uniqueto business
Financials
Four metrics set towards high end of range
5-7 initiatives competitiveness
(a- As described in GE’s 2016 proxy statement
Cumulative EPS
Industrial margins
Industrial ROTC
Cash generated
Cash returned
Aligned to“bridge”
26
(a- Industrial + Verticals
For investors
Consistent + strong EPS growth
Returning capital to investors
Control multiple levers … service, productivity, backlog
Winning for the future … Digital Industrial
In an uncertain& volatile
environment
1
2
3
4
2015 Buybackimpact
Alstom Industrialgrowth
2018FOutlook
GE Operating EPS-a)
$1.25-1.35
$2.00+~5%
~$.35~$.15-.20
~8.3B shares
Yr. 5 cost synergies ~$3B
Organic growth
Margins/returns
Free cash flow
Corporate cost
~$.32
Partial Synchrony benefit in 2015
$1.31
+ Leverage opportunity