diffusion theory, computers and society kathy e. gill 18 october 2004
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Quotable 1 "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876TRANSCRIPT
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Diffusion Theory, Computers and Society
Kathy E. Gill18 October 2004
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Overview More Theory History of computing
technology Networks
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Quotable 1"This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876
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Quotable 2
Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
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Quotable 3"I think there is a world market
for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
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Quotable 4
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949
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Quotable 5"640K ought to be enough for
anybody." -- Bill Gates, 1981 *
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What is “technology”? tech-nol-o-gy 1: technical
language; 2a: applied science b: a technical method of achieving a practical purpose 3: a totality of the means employed to provide objects necessary for human sustenance and comfort
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Technology Knowledge used to solve problems
and extend human potential Technology is about enabling
change and amplifying its direction.
Think of it as facilitating the journey not (necessarily) setting the destination.
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Technology and Media Caves in France Paper and charcoal/ink Printing Press Telegraph et al (radio,
television) Computer mediated
communications
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Why use a technology - demand Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for
information, knowledge, understanding Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and
emotional experiences Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed,
deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status
Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world
Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion
- Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas
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Why use a technology - other Availability Cost Network effects ??
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Discussion – Peer Group 3
Chia Fang Tsai Jac De Haan Katherine K Roemer
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Discussion – Questions Increasing capacity w/out adding
wires (telegraph). Parallels today?
Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the
phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, software constant upgrades …
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Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an
innovation-diffusion process Innovation Social system Time Communications channels
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Linear innovation-diffusion The process by which an
innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. (Rogers, 1995, P.5).
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Innovation An idea, practice, or object
that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption
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Communication A process in which participants
create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding (Rogers, 1995)
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Time The adoption model follows an
“s” shape curve over time
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Innovation-Decision Process
The mental process through which an individual passes from first knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)
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Five steps Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation
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Social System A set of interrelated units that
are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.
Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.
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Critical mass (1/2)
Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”
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Critical mass (2/2)
The critical mass is a social system perspective, while the dominant design is a technology perspective.
The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.
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Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards
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Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that
embodies the technology as a material or physical object.
Software - the knowledge base for the tool
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Japanese Word Processor Shipments
The industrial association of J apan office machines( )
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
year
thou
sand
05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,000
thou
sand
number of shipmentcumulative number of shipment
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Unit prices of WP and PC (MITI)
02004006008001,0001,200
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
year
unit
pric
e (y
en)
WPPC
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(Somewhat) Ancient History (1/2)
8500 BC : Bone carved with prime numbers discovered
1000 – 500 BC : Abacus invented 1500 : da Vinci’s mechanical
calculator 1642 : Blaise Pascal, 1st adding
device 1714 : 1st English typewriter
patent
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(Somewhat) Ancient History (2/2)
1801 : Joseph Jacquard, weaving looms 1st to mechanically control a
device’s operations sequence 1822 : Charles Babbage,
Father of the Modern Computer and Ada Byron, Lady Lovelace
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Charles Babbage An eccentric British mathematician and
inventor The Difference Engine, 1822; it
calculated and printed mathematical tables
Analytical Engine, the first device considered a computer in the modern sense of the word Would use loops of Jacquard’s punch cards to
control an automatic calculator, which would make decisions based on previous computation results
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Analytical Engine, 1858
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Ada Byron In 1843, predicted that Babbage’s
“analytical engine” could compose music and produce graphics with both practical and scientific application
Dscribed how Babbage’s engine might calculate Bernoulli numbers; this is regarded as the first “computer program.”
Ada, the first ISO-standardized OO programming language; developed by the US Department of Defense in 1979.
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Modern History (1/3)
1937 : Alan Turing, Turing Machine Theoretical model of a computer
1938 : Claude Shannon’s Master’s Thesis “possibly the most important of the
20th century” Showed how Boole’s concepts of True
and False could be used to represent functions of switches (binary)
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Modern History (2/3)
1939-1944 : Howard Aiken Harvard Mark I, 1st large scale
digital computer (IBM Automatic Sequence Control Calculator)
Used Electromagnetic Relays 1943 : Alan Turing & COLOSSUS
WWII machine designed to break German code; 1800 vacuum tubes
Earliest working programmable electronic digital computer
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Modern History (3/3)
1943-1946 : ENIAC 1st fully Electronic Computer 18,000 vacuum tubes; 10’ tall, 1000 sq
ft of floor space, weighed ~30 tons 1945 : first computer “bug”
(literally!) 1949 : John VonNeumann
Consultant on Manhattan Project Paper : all basic elements of a stored
program computer
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First Commercial Computers
1951 : 1st Computer Sold to U.S. Bureau of Census - UNIVAC I
1954 : 1st Computer Sold to Private Corp., General Electric Company - UNIVAC I
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Recent History (1/5)
1957 : FORTRAN 1st high-level programming
language 1959 : COBOL
Common Business Oriented Language
1961 : John F. Kennedy, Space Program
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Recent History (2/5)
1964 : BASIC Beginners All-purpose Symbolic Instruction
Code 1975 : Bill Gates & Paul Allen,
Microsoft 1976 : Steve Jobs & Steve
Wozniack, Apple 1977 : Commodore “PET”
computer
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Recent History (3/5)
1979 : 1st “killer app” 1st Electronic Spreadsheet –
VisiCalc What is “killer app” in Winston’s
context? 1980 : PC DOS 1981 : IBM - PC 1983 : Apple Macintosh
Computer (GUI)
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Recent History (4/5)
1984 : Laser Printers for PCs High quality affordable printing
1984 : CD-ROMS 1990s : Communications &
Multimedia Audio Video Internet - WWW Browsers
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Recent History (5/5)
21st century? Peer-to-peer networks Miniaturization continues DRM DVD (burning) Time-shifting (Tivo, RePlay) Satellite radio
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Categories of Computers Mainframes and PCs that run
application software Embedded chips that control
machines
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Computing technology advances at exponential rates Memory capacity quadruples every
3 years Processor speed doubles every 3
years Number of hosts doubles every year Chip transistor densities double
every 18 months at constant prices (Moore’s Law)
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Computers and Networks Facilitate
Concentration of knowledge and control
Distribution of knowledge and control Have the power to
Amass and analyze enormous volumes of data
Process data at enormous rates for real systems and simulations
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Computers and Networks Challenge: Constitutional definitions Social structures Lifestyle options None more challenging than
“the Net”
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Internet History 1964 - Rand Corporation Plan
for dealing with military and government communications… in the event of a
“NUCLEAR WAR”
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National Network with No Central Authority
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ARPANET (Rand, MIT, UCLA) 1969 : 1st node on the
Internet 1971 : 15 nodes 1982 : TCP/IP
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Picking Up Speed 1987 : Apple’s Hypertext 1991 : Tim Berners-Lee at
European Particle Physics Laboratory in Geneva conceived the World Wide Web
1993 : National Center for Supercomputing Applications [NCSA] - University of Illinois created a WWW browser named Mosiac
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Faster... faster... faster April 94 : Mosaic
Communications [Clark & Andreesen]
Oct 94 : Netscape Beta Released Nov 94 : Mosaic Co ==>
Netscape Aug 9, 1995 : Netscape IPO
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Internet Hosts 1971 : 15 1981 : 213 1985 : 1,961 1990 : 313,000 1994 : 3,864,000 1996 : 9,472,000 2003 : 171,638,297
http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/index.cfm?theme
=10&variable_ID=553&action=select_countries
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What is a Host (aka Server)? A computer running software
that allows it to provide (serve) documents via the WWW.
The computer is assigned an IP address and connected to the Internet
Somewhat analogous to the “printer” of a print document.
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Parts of a Society Education Transportation Private Sector Business Government Entertainment
Housing Currency
(banking) Jobs Space Medicine Anything else?
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The Net and Society In recent years this one area
has affected society more than any other
How? What are the issues?