diffusion of innovations: theoretical perspectives and future prospects of diffusion studies

8/8/2019 Diffusion of Innovations: Theoretical Perspectives and Future Prospects of Diffusion Studies

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Diffusion of Innovations:

Theoretical Perspectives andFuture Prospects of Diffusion Studies

Prof. Shawaludin Anis

College of Applied Sciences Nizwa - Sultanate of Oman

Abstract:

This paper provides us wit h a brief review and progress on t he

t heory of diff usion of innovat ions which was made popular by

communicat ion scholar Everet t Rogers (1983) . This paper at t empt s

t o concept ualize t he dif fusion ideas among t he dif fusion scholar

worldwide and it s implicat ion on t he development and expansion of

t he new media communicat ion t echnologies. It at t empt s t o provide

answers t o t he following quest ions namely: (i) How does t he dif fusion

ideas relevant vis-a-vis t o t he development and expansion of new

media communicat ion t echnologies. ( ii) How t his t heory is useful

t o us? (iii) What are t he cont ribut ing fact ors that help to explain the

innovat ion ideas? (iv) What could we significant ly learned from t his

t heory? (v)What would be the major crit icism and drawbacks of t he

diffusion model? (vi) What is t he fut ure of t he diffusion theory inexplaining t he rapid expansion of t he new media t echnologies?

Keyword: diff usion of innovat ions, t wo-step-flow t heory, change

agent , homophily, het erophily, relat ive advantage, compat ibilit y,

complexity, t rialabilit y, observabilit y , s-shape curve, innovat ors,

early adopt ers, early majorit y, late majorit y, laggards. Crit ical mass,

t ake-off point .

Paper present ed at t he Int ernat ional Conference: New Media

t echnologies for t he New World, organized by t he Depart ment of

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Communicat ion ,Tourism & Fine Art s, Universit y of Bahrain, Kingdom

of Bahrain. Manama, April 7-9, 2009. 11-13 Jamidil Awal 1430.

Diff usion of Innovat ions:

Theoret ical perspect ives and fut ure prospect s of the diff usion

st udies in t he new media communicat ion t echnologies.

Summary:

This paper provides us wit h a brief review and progress on t he

t heory of diff usion of innovat ions which were made popular by

communicat ion scholar Everet t Rogers (1 983) . Rogers spent almost

his ent ire academic carrier (42 years) developing, concept ualizing,

t eaching and propagat ing t he dif fusion ideas among t he dif fusion

scholars worldwide.

The t heory which was init ially started as a Ph D dissert at ion t o help

explain t he dif fusion of hybrid corn among farmers in Iowa, USA

lat er, found t o have it s applicat ions t o many other fields of social

sciences, including that of communicat ion. The innovat ion of ideas

which scholars worldwide propagate could easily be adopted to

explain t he dif fusion phenomenon of t he new media communicat ion

media technologies.

What init ially was t hought t o be a relevant t heory only t o explain

the diffusion of projects related to only agricultural extension

works, f amily planning and populat ion studies, it has now expanded

it s applicat ions t o ot her fields of st udies. Current ly t his t heory is

one of t he many popular t heories used by many communicat ion

scholars, social science scient ists and educat ionist s - bot h in t he

developed and developing world. By about 1980s t he cumulat ive

counts of the diffusion of innovation research then totaling to

over 30 00 st udies across more than t en diff erent disciplines in


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social sciences ranging f rom t he field of communicat ion, rural

sociology, educat ion, market ing, general sociology, public healt h,

anthropology, geography, populat ion st udies, sociology and

agricult ural ext ension works. To dat e I believe t he tot al numbers of

diff usion studies have increased more t han t hree f olds, more t han

what was init ially recorded in 1980s. This demonst rates t he under-

pinning pot ent ial applicat ions of t he theory has, across many fields

of social sciences. To dat e it represent s large numbers of scholars

worldwide associat ed with such a t heory .

Rogers, in his early works influenced by De Fleurs (1988) t wo

step flow t heory (opinion leader and opinion followers) goes on

t o explain t he diff usion of any innovat ions among ot hers rely on

t he roles of change agent . These change agents must share many

similar at t ributes in t erms of homophily (t he degree t o which pairs

of individuals int eract with t heir cult ures and sub-cultures are

similar in cert ain at t ribut es e.g. beliefs, values, educat ion, social

status et c. When t hey share common meanings a mut ual subculture

is est ablished) and heterophily ( t he degree t o which pairs of

individuals who int eract are somet imes quit e diff erent in t heir

at t ributes. They do share some similar at t ributes but for diff erent

reasons).

The dif fusion theory characterized by t he successful characterist ics

of an innovat ion t hat would result in successful adopt ion (orrapid adopt ion) must include fact ors like relat ive advant age,

compat ibilit y, complexit y, t rialabilit y and observabilit y.

However, t he t heory explains t o us t hat before any innovat ion could

be adopted t he mental process of individuals and t hose t aking

part in t hat innovat ion generally go t hrough a liner mental process

of decision-making in t erms of acquiring knowledge, persuasion,

decision, implementat ion, and last ly t he confirmat ion stage as

illust rated in t he S-shape curve. Once t he innovat ion is adopt ed


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t he spread of commit t ed innovat ions could be classified int o

diff erent groupings of adopters as described by Rogers (1983) in

his S-shape curve. This curve represents grouping of part icipant s

known as: innovators, early adopt ers, early majorit y, lat e majorit y

and laggards, all operat ing wit hin a social syst em. Innovat ions and

expansions of new media communicat ion t echnologies in many

ways are quit e similar to t he S-shape curve graph syndrome as

cit ed by Rogers and ot hers, but it might also dif fer in it s heterophily

factors.

Alt hough this t heory has many st rength and its usefulness,

limit at ions of t he dif fusion t heory is also serious. Like any ot her

t heories, t his t heory had some unique drawbacks in t erms of

it s applicat ions. For example, dif fusion of ideas of t en assumed

t hat adopt ion of innovat ions were well underst ood as desired by

adopt ers. But in realit y in some cases t his is not really so. Sustainable

flow of cont inuous innovat ions of t en t imes could be problemat ic.

Of t en t he diff usion of innovat ions doesnt guarant ee long last ing

success. In the case where new media t echnologies were adopt ed,

of t en t he speed of changes in t he t echnology it self supersede

it s adopt ion process. The users are always being in t he state of

lagging behind or being out of dat e in addit ion t o t he commit t ed

investments in t erms of cost of infrast ruct ure incurred are huge. In

ot her words, innovat ion somet imes could not stay long enough (or

st able enough) before newer innovat ions are being re-int roducedor re-invent ed. These phenomenon pose a dilemma t o t he users.

Perhaps t his phenomenon is best explained by t racing back at t he

speed development of comput er technology ( e.g. t he evolut ion of

micro chips t echnology series start ing from 808 6 chips t o, 8088 ,

286, 386 , 486, Pent ium 1,2,3,4 wit h dual core, core 2 duo etc. The

speed of progress for t his invent ion is phenomenon as it supersede

what were adopt ed in t he market place. Anot her technology is t he

mobile phones. The technology changes faster than one could


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imagine. These scenarios created mis-match bet ween t he process

of adopt ion of t he innovat ion and reinvent ion.

Rogers (1983) and many ot her diff usion scholars suggest ed that in

order for t he diff usion eff ort t o be successful, it needed t he services

of t he opinion leader, a concept of using catalyst s known as change

agents. That is relying heavily on people who could go out and

direct ly influence early adopters about t he innovat ion. This stage of

t he diff usion ideas are crit ical to t he success of t he model as it relies

on the creat ion of crit ical mass among early adopt ers . This crit icalmass should reach at least 20 percent t ake of f point . Innovat ion is

more likely t o fail if t he expect ed rate of accelerat ion of 20 percent

is not achieved. Innovat ion is t herefore not an aut omat ic process. It

relies on a concept of a crit ical mass for a t ake off t o be successful.

In a nut shell, t he aims of t his brief paper is t o provide some answers

t o t he following quest ions as follows:

First , t his paper is t o provide some underst anding about t he dif fusion

of innovat ion t heory and t he ext end it is relevant in t he contact of

new media communicat ion technologies development . Second,

what cont ribut ion of dif fusion research today? Third, how much

t he dif fusion t heory is useful t o us ? Fourt h, what are t he underlying

cont ribut ing factors t hat help t o explain cert ain innovat ions t hat

are successful while ot her t heory are not . Fift h, what would be t hesignificant factors learned from t his t heory ? Sixth, what would be

t he rat e or speed of adopt ion process in any innovat ion ? Sevent h,

what would be t he major crit icisms and drawbacks of t he diff usion

model ? Eight , what is t he fut ure of t he diff usion of innovat ion

st udies in explaining t he rapid expansion of new communicat ion

t echnologies for t he new world ?


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Introduction:

Alt hough communicat ion is a very young discipline, communicat ion

t heory professors belonging to t he first generat ion has already

making an impact in t he field of social sciences. Knowledge of

t heories explain a wide range of communicat ion phenomena.

Names like Wilber Schramm,1954 (How communicat ion works)

Siebert , Peterson & Schramm, 1956 (Four t heories of t he press) ,

Claude Shannon & W. Weaver, 1949 (Mathemat ical t heory of

communicat ion), Harold Lasswell, 1948 (Who says what inwhich channel t o whom wit h what eff ect ) , Charles Osgood, 1954

(Congruit y t heory), Paul Lazarsfeld, 19 40 (Group t heory), Theodore

Newcomb 1953 (Symmet ry model) , Leon Fest inger, 19 57 (Theory

of cognit ive dissonance) , George Herbert Mead & Herbert Blumer,

1934 ( Symbolic int eract ionism) , Nort hon Long, 195 8 / Kurt &

Gladys Lang 19 59, (Agenda set t ing), Carl Hovland, 1953 (Theory

of communicat ion persuasion), Kurt Lewin,1951 (Theory of group

dynamics), Elihu Katz, 1959 (Uses & grat ificat ion), and many ot hers

are some of t he first generat ion of communicat ion scholars t hat are

no st ranger t o t he st udent s of communicat ion. These scholars have

carved t heir names in t he Theory Hall of Fame. In t his respect name

Everet t Rogers is not excluded f rom t his list , alt hough Ryne & Cross

(194 3) noted t he first diffusion ideas in educat ion was in 19 43 ,

but t he best known and widely respect ed researcher in diff usion

of innovat ions research t oday is non other t han the lat e ProfessorEveret t Rogers himself .

( i) Why research on t he Diff usion of Innovat ions theory?

When Everett Rogers first wrote the book on the theory of the

diffusion of innovat ions about 4 7 years ago (196 2) , at t hat point

of t ime t here were only about 405 innovat ion publicat ions known

t hen. Although t here were evident t o suggest t hat dif fusion

studies were init iat ed much earlier date, as early as in 1940s


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(Ryan & Cross, 1943 ) but it was not unt il 19 70 s, t hat t he diffusion

st udies became popular among social scient ist s. By t he t ime when

Rogerss diff usion of innovat ions book was updat ed in 1971, the

numbers of diff usion studies have increased t o about 1 ,50 0 out of

which 1,20 0 were empirical research reports and the other 300 were

bibliographies, synt heses, theoret ical writ ings and non empirical

writ ings (Rogers, 1976: 47) . By 19 83, t he diff usion publicat ions had

reached t o about 3,08 5. To dat e I believe t he diff usion st udies has

surpass an est imat ed more than three fold f rom t he last count (see

Table 1.1 ) Perhaps, no ot her field of behavioral science researcht hat represents more ef fort s by more scholars in more nat ions t han

t hat of t he diffusion studies.

Table 1.1Cumulat ive number of dif fusion research publicat ions by

year (ext racted from Rogerss Diff usion of Innovat ions. Page 47)

( ii) What cont ribut ion and the stat us of Diff usion Research today ?

Rogers (1983:88 -90) provided us with an impressive brief account

of t he dif fusion research t oday. During 1960 s & 19 70s results of

t he dif fusion research have been incorporated in most of t he basic

t extbooks in social psychology, communicat ion, rural development ,


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populat ion st udies, public relat ions, advert ising, market ing,

consumer beheaviour, rural sociology and many ot her fields of

study just t o name few. The applicat ion of dif fusion approaches

in agricult ural development s and family planning are of t en

synonymous in many Lat in America, Af rica and Asian count ries.

In t he ASEAN (Associat ion of Sout h East Asian Count ries) count ries

in part icular Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand t he

dif fusion models are used in t he field of agricult ural sectors and

nat ional family planning. The catalyst s for propagat ing t heinnovat ion ideas also known as change agent s were then t rained in

t he US under t he sponsorship programmes of f oreign aids t o t he

developing nat ions and t hese change agents on their ret urn t o t heir

own count ries carried out t he dif fusion ideas. To dat e some of t hese

former change agent s obt ained Ph Ds in t he field and now serving at

t he local universit ies were common t o be found in many count ries.

The popularit y of t he diff usion theory perhaps is in it s applicat ion

across mult i disciplines. Evident conduct ed in many fields of social

sciences such as in market ing, educat ion, ant hropology, agricult ure,

rural sociology, social work, public healt h, communicat ion,

geography and lat ely in economic were t he manifestat ion of it s

applicabilit y. The dif fusion ideas across many fields, cross-cultures

and many diff erent count ries support s t he popularit y of such

theory.

In t he field of economic in part icular market ing for example, in t he

1960s and 1970s market ing managers have long been concerned

with how to launch a new product and promoting the concept

of product life-cycle. In addit ion t o t he t angible product s t he

concept of market ing was furt her ext ended t o also include t he non

t angible product s. Kot ler and Zaltman (1971) int roduced t he idea

of market ing t o include t he non-tangible product s such as social

market ing . Here, t he principles were t rying t o dif fuse socially


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beneficial ideas t hat do not necessarily ent ailed wit h the sale of

commercial products. Market ing concept s thus are integrat ed with

healt hy life st yles and environment al concerned t o consumers. In

ot her words t oday, market research examined data beyond t he

purchasing behaviors.

( iii) How much t he dif fusion theory is useful t o us?

The diff usion ideas according t o Rogers in his books and lectures,

which were init iated in t he early years in US and Europe soon spread

very fast in t he ot her developing nat ions like Lat in America, Af rica,China and Asia. The fact t hat t he dif fusion ideas were very much

encouraged in the field such as agricult ure, family planning, public

health and nut rit ion, were very much well suit ed t o t he developing

nat ions agendas not t o ment ion it has it s applicat ion in t he indust rial

world t oo. In Malaysia and Indonesia for example the diff usion ideas

went int o t he field of populat ion studies such as the nat ional family

planning and agricult ural extension divisions projects went t o t he

rural sect ors like Mada in Kedah, Jangka in Pahang, FELDA in Johore

and many ot her stat es in Malaysia in t he 1970s and 1980s.

The dif fusion did gained accept ance in many developing

nat ions for several reasons as follows:

First , by studying t he dif fusion of innovat ion ideas in the developing

nat ions like t he Lat in Americas, Asia, India and China, in the early

years, gradually we realized t hat alt hough t here were cert ainlimit at ions do exist ed with t he diff usion f ramework, t his t heory is

apparent ly not a cult ural or disciplinary bounded. The t rend t owards

more unified and cross-disciplinary research in dif fusion has cont inue

t hen and unt il t oday. And every dif fusion scholar is also fully aware of

t he parallel met hodologies and result s found in t he other t radit ions.

This paper is t he manifestat ion of t he ot her pot ent ial applicat ions

especially in t he field of new media t echnology and media st udies.

This is very encouraging indeed.


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Secondly, t he ot her significant at t ract ion among many scholars

who are int erested in t he diffusion ideas is the increased int erest in

t he aspect s of organizat ion processes. In anot her words this t heory

is also capable of providing some explanat ions as t o t he process of

how organizat ional decision-making made by individuals, groups

and organizat ions.

( iv) What is t he underlying cont ribut ing fact ors t hat help t o

explain certain innovat ions are more successful t han ot hers ?

As indicat ed earlier in this paper, t he init ial dif fusion ideas wasinit iat ed as far back as early as in 1940s. Rogers (1983) while

working at t he diff usion of hybrid corn project among Iowa farmers

at t he Iowa St ate Universit y, made significant refinement on the

model and lat er popularized the t heory. He provided us wit h a very

detailed const ruct ion of t he t heory of dif fusion of innovat ions

model.

In order t o help underst and t he model fully , t wo factors that we have

t o t ake into account . First we have t o underst and t wo important

facet s of t he model, namely we have to examine t he models

characterist ics and secondly we have t o understand t he rate in

which the model gets diffused or adopted or not adopted.

(a) What is Diff usion?

Diff usion is t he process by which innovat ion is communicat edt hrough cert ain channels over t ime among t he members of a social

system (Rogers,19 83:5) . This is a special type of innovat ion , in

which t he massages are concerned with spreading of new ideas. It

is t his newness of t he idea in t he cont ent message t hat gives t he

diffusion a special character. The newness means that to some

degree some form of uncert aint y is involved. Uncertaint y implies

t he lack of predict abilit y wit h respect t o probabilit y of alternat ives

chosen.


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(b) The main element s of in t he Diff usion of Innovat ions Model.

The beaut y of t he diff usion model is on t he disseminat ion of new

ideas ( innovat ions) as propagat ed by t his t heory and t he concepts

t hat allows t he process of social change of t o occur. The basic idea

of t he diff usion lies on t he S-shape curve model as illust rated in

Figure 1.1 below:

Figure 1.1. The S-shape Curve Dif fusion Model It t he process by which

(1) an innovat ion (2) is communicat ed t hrough cert ain channels

(3) over t ime (4) among members of a social system.

(ext ract ed form Rogerss Diff usion of Innovat ions Model : page 11)

As explained earlier t he dif fusion model t akes int o account four majorelement s of t he diff usion ideas such as (1.1) it must be classified

as an innovat ion, (1.2) it must be communicat ed t hrough cert ain

channels, (1 .3) it t akes int o account t he durat ion or t ime fact or and

(1.4 ) last ly it must be adopt ed among members of within the social

syst em. These criteria must be met if t he innovat ion is t o t ake off

as predict ed according to t he S-shape as illust rat ed above.

E.g how innovat ions were applied in t he field of market ing &

advertising.


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First ly, t he dif fusion starts wit h an innovat ion. An innovat ion could

be an idea, pract ice (e.g. services) , object (e.g. product ) t hat is

perceived as new by individuals who wishes t o adopt ed t he idea.

It mat t ers lit t le whether t he ideas involve is a new knowledge or

not , as long as it must be perceived by t he pot ent ial adopt ers as

somet hing new which they have not heard before and must be

seen desirable t o be adopt ed.

In t he field of int ernat ional market ing and advert ising for example

t he concept of 4 Ps (product , price, promot ion, place) have beenredefined int o somet hing the something new in the local market .

Product are classified for example int o various cat egories such

as product st andardizat ion and product specializat ion in order

t o make it relevant t o local market (Kot ler and Grey. 19 93 :221)

That product relevancy has been translated into the concept of

newness or in short innovat iveness t o ent er t he local market and is

of t en done eit her t hrough product adopt ion as described by Mueller

(1 99 6:27 -33 ) as follows:

(a) Mandat ory product adapt at ion ( i.e. it refers to sit uat ions in

which internat ional company adapt s it s product s requirement s to

t he local environment such as e.g. frozen food cannot be market ed

in count ries where ret ailers do not have f reezer storage facilit ies.

Freezer for st orage facilit ies is considered as adapt at ion of an

innovation.

(b) Discret ionary product adapt at ion ( i.e. it refers to imposit ion

requirement s imposed by the count rys aut horit y e.g. food

product s t o be sold t o t he Muslim consumers in Malaysia and

many ot her Muslim count ries must carries t he t he Minist rys

endorsement f or hallal (permissible for Muslim t o consume) food

sign on t he product s label. Hallal labeling is part of t he adapt at ion of

an innovat ion.


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(c) New product development (i.e. it refers t o development of new

product s specifically geared to t he needs and suit abilit y of t he local

market e.g Heinz developed a special rice line of rice based baby

foods for t he Chinas market or t he Pepsi t arek for t he Malaysian

market by adding t he component of cof fee or Maharaja Masala

Pizza (hot and spicy t aste) by t he Pizza Hut f or the local market .

Added recipes are an added innovat ion. Adaptat ion were made on

product s sold t o specific markets.

The int erpret at ion of newness also includes t he idea of(d) t he count ry of t he product origin ( i.e it refers t o t he product

count ry of origin e.g. French perfume Channel No 5 or Este Lauders

Elizabet h Taylor Poison perfume from New York. The count ry of

product s origin in it self somet imes is considered as an innovat ion.

In t he case of product dist ribut ion, innovat iveness has been in t he

form of t he following dist ribut ion st rat egies:

(a) Licensing( i.e. a company was off ered a licensee in foreign market

right s t o operat e or manufact ure or market it s product .

(b) Management contract (i.e. foreign firm assign local firms to

supply t he management or know-how t o foreign firm who are willing

t o invest capit al in t he local firm t o operat e in t he local market .

(c) Foreign assembly ( i.e. knock down assembly plant of various

product s e.g foreign cars assembly plant s in t he local market .

(d) Cont ract manufact uring which involves manufact uring of t he

firms product s produced locally f or t he foreign market e.g many

Free t rade Zone companies in many developing count ries a part of

promot ional mode of innovat iveness.


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(e) Joint ownerships (i.e t his refers t o t he process by which t wo

or more firms in the different countries joint forces to create

local business in which t hey share joint ownership and cont rol of

management , market ing and services e.g in the Sultanat e of

Oman t he Oman Market ing LLC company for Honda, Saud Bahwan

for Toyata, Sohil Bahwan LLC for Nissan Zawawi f or Mercedes, Naza

Mot or Sdn. Bhd for KIA or Pantai Medical Groups just t o name few,

wit h t he foreign part icipat ion in t he Holdings. This joint partnership

as part of t he innovat ion.

The above are some of t he current examples of how innovat ions

were diff used t aking into account t he environmental st rategies

in which business operates penet rat ing t aking advant age of t he

availabilit y of t he local market s.

(v) What would be t he significant fact ors learned f rom t his t heory?

Rogers (1993:211-236) itemized other characteristics of

innovat ions as being perceived by individuals quit e diff erent ly. This

helps t o explain t he dif ferent rate of adopt ions . He explained t hat

t he reasons for t he dif ferent rat e of adopt ion of any innovat ions

dif fers are because of t he following reasons namely:

(a) relat ive advant age t hat is t he degree of which an innovat ion

must be perceived t o be bet t er t han t he idea it supersedes. The

great er t he perceived relat ive advantage of an innovat ion t he morerapid it s rate of adopt ion is going t o be.

(b) Compat ibilit y t hat is the degree to which an innovat ion is

perceived as being consist ent wit h t he exist ing values, past

experience and needs of potent ial adopters. The great er t he

compat ibilit y t he fast er the rat e of adopt ion.

(c) Complexity t hat is t he degree t o which t he innovat ion is

perceived to be difficult t o underst and or t o use. In other words t he


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lengt h of t ime from which an innovat ion is fully convinced by t he

adopters f rom one st age to believabilit y t o t he ot her stage that

t han led t o t he process of decision-making. There are five steps to

decision-making process t hat happened in t he dif fusion model.

They are namely: knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementat ion

and confirmat ion. The occurrences takes place perhaps in a linear

format.

Fourt hly, t he innovat ion model t akes into account of t he involvement

of innovat ions among members within t he social syst em. Meaningt hat t he accomplishment is not an individual achievement alone.

It must be supported by the st ructure within t he social syst em

t o support t he innovat ion. A syst em has a st ructure and pat t ern

of arrangement s within our social syst em. A decision of adopt ion

begins on at individual level, t hen collect ive level, then choices are

made based authority imposit ion.

(vi) What would be t he rate or speed of adopt ion process?.

The issue of innovat iveness is t he degree t o which an individual

adopt t he new innovat ion. It refers t o t he quest ion of how fast t he

rate of diff usion is being adopt ed and t his adopt ion would be based

on t he S-curve model as illust rated by Rogers (1983: 22) . The

rate of adopt ion is usually measured status and by t he lengt h of

t ime required for certain percent age of t he members of a system

t o adopt an innovat ion. In ot her words t he rate of adopt ion of aninnovat ion might vary in dif ferent social system depending on t he

commonalit y of charact erist ics of t he innovat ion as illust rated

above. The more common t he characterist ic the fast er t he rate of

adopt ion would be.

These categories could be classified into five different levels of

adopt ion as follows : (i) innovators (ii) early adopters, ( iii) early

majorit y, ( iv) lat e majorit y and (v) laggards. (refer t o Table 1.1 )


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The innovators are the first group of adopters who initiated an

innovat ion with in t he syst em. They play a gat e keeping roles in t he

flow of t his new ideas. This groups normally belongs to 2.5 % batch

or early birds. The early adopters are t he second bat ch of adopters

who are convince with t he ideas init iat ed by t he early innovat ors.

Early adopt ers normally belongs t o 13.5 percent grouping. Early

majorit y adopts new ideas just before t he majorit y adopts t he idea.

This group normally occupied about 34 percent Lat e majorit y on

t he other hand implies t hat t his group adopts new ideas fairly latebecause t hey are very much skept ical in t he beginning. As t ime

proceed t hey t hen joint t he main st ream of adopt ers. Laggard are

t hose who adopt t he innovat ion last . This grouping consistent of

about 16 %. This is t he last batch of adopt ers.

In conclusion, t he pace of innovat ion depended on t he dif ferent

level t hat individuals belief in adopt ion itself.

(vii) What would be t he major crit icisms of t he diff usion research ?

Alt hough t he diffusion t heory arguably is an excellent example of

t he middle range t heory where by it successfully cont ributes and

integrat es vast amount of empirical research. Rogers in 1993

reviewed thousands of st udies (Baran & Davis 2003:16 8-170)

The diff usion ideas also made many implicit assumpt ions result ing in

limit ing it s use. Like any ot her informat ion flow t heory, the diff usionmodel is a source dominat ed t heory t hat see innovat ions from t he

point of view of t he uses of t he adopt ion process and not from t he

receivers point of view. Thus t his t heory provides us wit h bet t er

st rategies for overcoming barriers t o innovat ions.

The dif fusion of innovat ion was very influent ial in 1950s to 19 70 s

especially t o spread agricult ural innovat ions st rat egies leading t o

t he green revolut ion for many of t he developing world. In Af rican

and Indian cont inent including t hat of Malaysia and Indonesia the


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dif fusion ideas were used for agricultural ext ension and for nat ional

family planning. In t he west market ing t heories and promot ional

campaigns supports the diffusion ideas (Baran & Davis, 2003:

170) .

Despite of it s usefulness, limit at ions of t he dif fusion theory is also

serious. It had some unique drawbacks in t erms of it s applicat ions.

For example, diff usion of ideas of t en assumed that adopt ion of

innovat ions were well understood as desired by adopt ers. But

somet imes in realit y t his is not t he case. Vary of t en adopters failt o understand t he innovat ion it self . For example farmers in India

dest roy their crops by using t oo much fert ilizer. Farmers in Mada

Scheme Malaysia adopt ed complex new machinery for harvest ing

padi ( rice crop) only t o have the machines break down and st and idle

aft er t he change agents left t he scheme. Children of t he Jangkas

scheme, FELDAs (Malaysia) scheme nat ionwide left t he scheme

for nonagricultural jobs in bigger t owns, leaving the old folks t o

cont inue managing t he scheme instead of t heir children replacing

t hem in the field. Bright lights of t he city at t ract s t he young more

t han t he rural farming. As a result commercial rural farming were

disrupted. These problems however, has created manpower gaps

which was not ant icipat ed in t he equat ions of rural development ..

Thus sust ainable flow of new and innovat ive work force was

interrupted.

In t he case of St at e of Sarawak (Malaysia) , shif t ing cult ivat ing

(clearing of virgin jungles for t he purpose of farming f rom place

t o place ) cont inues as being pract ice in rural Sarawak as soon

t he government s change agent left t he longhouses where t hey

lived inst ead of t he fixed farming. These kinds of experiences

being repeat ed in many ot her parts of t he world especially in Brazil.

Therefore t he dif fusion of innovat ions didnt guarant ee long last ing

success.


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In t he case of new media communicat ion technology like comput ers,

t he evolut ion of t he invent ion e.g micro chips like 8086 , 8088, 286 ,

386 , 486, Pent ium 1,2 , 3,4 (with dual core) and core 2 duo by it self

of t en t imes supersede what t he users can adopt in terms of financial

investment . Anot her example t he mobile phone. Sets bought t oday

in due short period of t ime are already obsolete. That is t he nat ure

of fast growt h technology.

Rogers (1983) and many ot her scholars of innovat ions suggested

t hat t he diff usion eff ort in order t o be successful need t he servicesof t he opinion leader, a concept of using catalyst s known as change

agents. That is relying heavily on people who could go out and direct ly

influence early adopt ers as indicat ed in Table 1 .1 earlier. This stage

of t he diff usion ideas is crit ical t o t he success t he model as it relies

on the creat ion of crit ical mass among early adopt ers of about 20

percent t ake of f point . Failure t o achieve t he expect ed rate,

innovat ion would likely bound to fail. Innovat ion is not aut omat ic. It

relies on a crit ical mass for a take of f .

(vii) The Fut ure of Diff usion of Innovat ions studies?

What would be the future of innovation studies. Like any other

theories, the diffusion theory despite of its shortcomings it has

been proven t o be useful as indicat ed in Table 1.1 it has applicat ions

on wide range of dif ferent fields of social sciences. Af t er all it is only

a tool we could benefit ed from. As long as it is useful and able t o helpus explain t he phenomena t hat we are st udying t he diffusion ideas

and model would be useful t o us. Understanding it s st rengt h and

weaknesses helps us become more sensit ive of it s usefulness and

avoiding short comings. We have t o go on finding new explanat ions

and usefulness of t his t heory while it last . Perhaps t here are ot her

explanat ions which were not revealed by t he diff usion scholars.

The lat e Everet t Rogers (2004) has init iat ed a clear pat h for us t o

furt her invest igate new explanat ions and new paradigms need t o be

rediscover t aking of f f rom where the dif fusion scholars have lef t us.


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Conclusion:

In this short paper I have at t empt ed t o t race t he growt h and analyze

t he popularity of t he t heory of diff usion mainly from t he t heoret ical

point of view. It has helps us explain the characterist ics and t he rat e

of any innovat ion adopt ion. As illust rated in t his paper t he beaut y

of t his model is not culturally or disciplinary bounded t heory. It is

a t heory applicable t o cross cult ural and mult i-disciplinary. It is a

t heory t hat could accommodat e bot h the t angible and t he non-

t angle it ems of innovat ions. It provides us wit h a useful explanat ionsof a social phenomena in field of social sciences wit hout being

dogmat ically at t ached t o certain ideology.

In short t his t heory has direct implicat ions on t he development and

expansion of t he new media communicat ion t echnology worldwide.

It has t he pot ent ial means of explaining some of t he phenomena as

illust rated in t his model.


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diffusion of innovations: theoretical perspectives and future prospects of diffusion studies

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