Time Scaled Event Network

Standard Probability Distribution Table

Standard Probability Distribution TableTime Scaled Event NetworkProbable Time EstimateWhat is PERT?PERT stands for Program Evaluation and Review TechniqueHandles the uncertainty of duration time particularly for projects of non-repetitive in natureCost varies directly with time. Time is the controlling factor.Pert time estimatesOptimistic TimeEstimated minimum time an activity will takeFastest timeProbability is about 1%Represented by letter aPessimistic TimeEstimated maximum time an activity will takeLongest timeProbability is about 1%Represented by letter bProbabilistic TimeEstimated normal length of time an activity will takeMost frequent timeRepresented by letter mFrequency diagramFrequency Diagram

FormulaFormulaFormulaIllustration 1From the following network diagram:Compute for the expected time for each activity and the expected duration for each path.Identify the critical path.Compute the variance for each activity and the variance for each path.

The path with the largest expected activity duration is d-e-f with 16 weeks is the critical path.171. What is the probability that this project will be completed within 17 weeks of its start?2. Determine the probability that the project will be completed within 15 weeks.RULE OF THUMB:If z > 2.5, probability ofpath is 1.00 or 100%.Assumptions:Activity times are independent of each other and each activity is only in one path.A project is not completed until after all of its activities have been completed.Liberate philosophy from the confines of philosophers' lecture rooms and textbooks and turn it into a sharp weapon in the hands of the masses.

-Mao Zedong