Die politieke stand van sake Obaro Brits Inligtingsdag Fatherland Estate 12 Maart 2015

Theo Venter Politieke en Beleidspesialis

NWU Besigheidskool, Potchefstroom

@theo_venter

Uitleg

• Perspektief

• Globale gebeure

• Globale Risikos

• Suid-Afrika

• Politiek

• Die pad vorentoe

Wat is nuus? 1. Die EFF ontwrig die staatsrede in die Parlement.

2. Plase van 12000ha of maksimum van 2 plase?

3. Waar gaan ons krag vandaan kom? Eskom sukkel.

4. Verskeie onafhanklike kragprodusente het toestemming en

kontrakte in die hand om Eskom te help (Vgl Charl Senekal).

5. Die olieprys het halveer op wêreldmarkte.

6. SA ekonomiese groeikoers kwalik 2% per jaar?

7. Internasionale politieke gebeure beïnvloed internasionale handel.

8. Eugene de Kock vrygelaat, Clive Derby-Lewis nie.

9. Misdaadvlakke in Suid-Afrika bly ‘n konstante kwelling.

10. Ons grootste vakbondbeweging besig om uitmekaar te val.

Hoe maak ons sin uit die Staatsrede en die Begroting 2015

Chaos in die Parlement. Ontwrigting ‘n wêreld-eerste? Vryheidsmanifes neem plek van die NOP? Kragkrisis neem 25% van toespraak op. Nege ekonomiese fokuspunte. Energiekrisis, Ontwikkel landbou;

Verwerking van minerale rykdom, IPAP, Moedig privaatsektor investering aan, Verlaag werksplekkonflik, Kleinsake-ontwikkeling, hervorm staatsondernemings, Ontwikkel oseaan-ekonomie.

Landbou en grondhervorming. Die 50/50 idee, 12000 ha beperking en grondeise tot 2019, Waardeerder-Generaal en voedselsekuriteit en agro-industrieë.

Landelike ontwikkeling, behuising, water, sanitasie en infra-struktuur.

Plaaslike Regering. Groot nasionale krisis, spandeer min tyd.

Some Global Risks

WEF 2015 Gobal Risks

Likelihood

WEF 2015 Gobal Risks

Impact

Global Risks per region: 2015

South Africa’s Competitiveness

IMF forecast on South Africa 2015 World economic growth: 3,5%

Euro Zone: 1,2%

USA: Up from 3,1% to 3,6%

China: 6,8%

Japan: 0,6%

South Africa: 2,1%

Africa south of Sahara down with 0,9 % to 4,9% due to

reduced oil revenue (Nigeria down from 7,3% to 4,9%)

Heritage Foundation 2015: Economic Freedoms

Source: http://www.heritage.org/index/heatmap

South Africa's virtuous cycle

RSA now third among BRICS (India and Brazil below) Accountability of private institutions 2nd; Financial markets remain at 7th; Legal framework 9th Settling legal disputes 15th; Property rights 20th; Intellectual property protection 22nd; Business sophistication 31st; Research institutions 31st; Efficient goods market 32nd; Transport infrastructure 32nd; Quality of institutions 36th performing well;

Source: WEF 2014

The paradox goes back a long time….

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

South Africa's vicious cycle RSA continue its downward trend from 53 to 56/144; Macroeconomic environment at 89th; Wasteful government spending 89th; Higher education at 89th; General lack of public trust in politicians 90th; Diversion of public funds 96th ; Electricity supply 99th; Labour market efficiency at 113th; Health of workforce ranked 132nd; Business cost of crime and violence 133rd; Wage inflexibility 139th; Hiring and firing 143rd; and Labour-employer relations at 144th out of 144 countries!

Source: WEF 2014

Problems in doing business in South Africa

1. Restrictive labour regulations; 2. Inadequately educated workforce; 3. Inefficient government bureaucracy; 4. Corruption; 5. Inadequate supply of infrastructure; 6. Policy instability; 7. Poor work ethic in national labour force; 8. Insufficient capacity to innovate; 9. Crime and theft; and 10.Access to finance.

Source: WEF 2014

Politiek

The role of the EFF 2014 -2015

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

The role of the EFF 2014 -2015

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

EFF: Driver of Relative Deprivation?

Time

Livi

ng s

tand

ards

t1 t2

Relative deprivation

Attainments

Source: Davies (1969)

An existential crisis? Rebellion of the Poor?

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

Political Climate as a Constraint on Business Manufacturing Sector

Source: BER; Quantec; MFA DATABASE (Economic upswings shaded)

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E O

F R

ESPO

ND

ENTS

Dakar visit

FW de Klerk becomes president

2 Feb 1990

Boipatong and East Rand violence

1994 Election

NP withdrew from GNU

2004 Election

2009 Election

2014 Election

1999 Election

2008 Global Financial Crisis

ANC Polokwane Conference

Zuma elected

Marikana 2012

AMCU Strike 2014

ANC Mangaung Conference

Zuma re-elected

SA Economy booms under

Mbeki

New constitution

1993

4Q2014: Nkandla issue unresolved, Parliament dysfunctional, very weak economic performance, Zuma leadership tested and break between Cosatu and Numsa.

Mandela Dec 2013

Nov 2014

NUMSA not happy…..

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

Political consequences of COSATU-NUMSA break • ANC receives between 10m-11m votes at every election. Cosatu

contributes between 2m-4m of those votes. • The anti-NDP lobby is now gone. • Emergence of a new unknown force to the left of the ANC. • What will the relationship between new United Front and the EFF

be? • Basically a split between public sector unions and private sector

unions. Public sector unions stay with COSATU. NUM odd-one out. • At the core of the issue sits Jacob Zuma. Cosatu voted for him in

2007 and then realized it’s a big mistake. No leadership changes in COSATU since then, only replacements.

• NUMSA now carries the flag of radical socialism while remaining COSATU unions more pragmatic like ANC.

• What will the role of the SACP be as vanguard of the left? • This process will unfold in 2015 and 2016 and must be seen as

positive for the further political development of South Africa, despite uncertainty in the short term.

The paradox goes back a long time…..2012

Source: Zapiro (Jonathan Shapiro)

Sensemaking

Dr Alex Boraine asks What has gone wrong? • History of commitment to holding

onto political power and an obsession with power.

• Ideological drive to control all walks of life.

• Culture of suspicion, mistrust and intolerance within the ANC.

• Disenchantment with the Constitutional Court.

• Criticism and mistrust of the media.

• Contempt of Parliament • Criminality and culture of

corruption in exile. • Bureaucracy developed in exile. • Rigid political control part of

struggle mind-set.

Hulle is gewoonlik konsortia van politieke belange (Schmitter & O’Donnell).

Hulle interne politieke debatte is dikwels teenstrydig omdat hulle meervoudige politieke profete en uitkomste aanhang.

Hulle wil die samelewing gewoonlik herskep om hulle ideologiese sienings te pas.

Hulle het ‘n baie sterk sin vir selfregverdiging wat in die dominante ideologie ingebou is.

Hulle het baie sterk demokratiese (populistiese) verbintenisse, maar min

toleransie vir politieke opposisie. Hulle probeer om opposisie te internaliseer – daarom vind die

veranderingsdebat in die koukus van die meerderheidsparty plaas. Die vertaling van baie hoë vlakke van legitimiteit na bestuurseffektiwiteit

(governance) kom net deur politieke pyn en tyd. Die bevrydingskultuur is baie aansteeklik en versprei maklik na misdaad,

oppertunisme en selfregverdiging (entitlement). Maar

Onder bevrydingsregerings is daar unieke geleenthede vir hernuwing en herskikking wat nie voorheen bestaan het nie.

Bevrydingsregerings kan baie effektief wees as hulle voel hulle is in beheer. (Fiskale dissipline en SA Belastingdiens).

Bevrydingsregerings kan ook self-korrektief optree. Onder bevrydingsregerings swaai die pendulum van verandering altyd te

ver, maar oor tyd beweeg die pendulum weer terug na groter balans (een/twee politieke generasies).

22,23%

0,9%

62,15%

UDM

2015: Political Dynamics

COPE

6,35%

@theo_venter ©Theo Venter

PAC

2,4% 1,57%

1,0%

0,67%

0,57%

0,28%

0,91%

FAWU, SACCAWU, SASAWU, PAWUSA, DENOSA, SAFPU, CWU & SAMWU

ANC Leadership Challenges: Post-2014 Election

Zuma’s 2nd term as ANC president ends in December 2017, but he may still be

President of the RSA until 2019. Two centres of power?

Dec 2012 May 2014 Dec 2017 May 2019

General election

General election

Mangaung Conference

Next ANC Conference

2016 Local Government

Elections

Zuma’s 1nd term as president of the RSA (2009-2014)

Zuma’s 2nd term as president of the ANC (2012-2017)

Zuma’s 2nd term as president of the RSA (2014-2019)?

Zone of uncertainty. Zuma’s 2nd term as State President ends. Is

this the entry of Cyril Ramaphosa?

Ramaphosa? Jeff Radebe? Zweli Mkize?

Dr Dlamini-Zuma

2015 ANC National

General Council @theo_venter 2014

2015 2016

Zone of Uncertainty

New ANC president for five year term 2017-2022

Cyril Ramaphosa

Die kontoere van ‘n post-Zuma era 1. Max du Preez en sy een-man-brekerbal beeld.

2. Die post Mbeki-era is nooit werklik verken soos die post Mandela-era (Venter, L 1997, When Mandela Goes)

3. Hoe kan/gaan Zuma se termyn eindig? Siekte, maw ‘n onderhandelde uittrede?

Politieke druk – Desember 2017?

Normale proses – Mei 2019?

Die beeld van Zuma in die media en die posisie van Zuma in die ANC baie wyd uitmekaar.

Zuma het ‘n sterk politieke houvas op die party met sterk steun in KZN, NW, FS, LP en Mpumalanga.

Hy het ‘n baie invloedryke “informele” stelsel van steun en informante in die staatsdiens en ander staatsinstansies.

What to expect 2015 - 2017 1. EFF will remain the village idiot/clown of SA politics, but they

determine the agenda in part.

2. Problems in COSATU-NUMSA will persist and may complicate labour relations significantly. (ANC January address)

3. NDP will remain cornerstone of ANC policy. (State of the Nation)

4. Huge focus on service delivery in local government. (Budget)

5. 2015 General Council of ANC will be very important.

6. 2016 Local Government Elections already determining some policy decisions.

7. Power struggle in the ANC has already started, preparing for 2017 ANC Conference (Elective Conference).

8. Our labour relations situation will remain vulnerable, especially in the mining and manufacturing sector.

Thank you